30-09-2004 07:58									#61
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There's no such thing as a purely mathematical model (for something like this). They're getting the migration data from somewhere, be it from DNA evidence or somewhere else.

	30-09-2004 07:59									#62
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quote: You actually believe that everyone alive today is descended from one person. Your delusion has reached new heights. It's actually pretty sad to see someone so blind.

Pot kettle black.

	30-09-2004 08:04									#63
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quote: The Australian Aboriginies were isolated for 40000 years or whatever. Does this mean they're not human?

No, it means the "computer program" is bogus - does not compute...

Ramo, how did people live in N & S America 6,000 years ago, people who have descendents there today, come from a parent living in SE Asia 3,500 years ago? Or how could Autralian aborigines who've been down under for ~60 k?

This is interesting though, and let's say they're off a few thousand years, does the Tower of Babel ring a bell? According to what I've read on it, a relatively small group of people in a Mesopotamian city within maybe the past 12,000 years angered God by building a structure that would ascend Heaven. If this really happened then the structure must have been a real threat, not just a man made mountain (ziggurat). And what was God's punishment? He scattered the people to the corners of the Earth and confounded (or caused by dispersion) their languages.

But there's still many problems with this news, other research estimates the time it takes for color changes, i.e., how fast a black man from Africa would need to live in N Europe to become white. And so far the estimate is 20,000 years. Now, it's possible our common parent was a soldier who got laid alot wherever the army went or Momma was a slave girl or something, maybe even a prostitute...

But this requires us to believe that where ever peoples had been established for millennia, this parent sired offspring who would supplant the world's population in 3,500 years. I'd believe the Babel story before I believed that...

	30-09-2004 08:05									#64
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At any rate, it's still a theory based on simulation of numbers, yet to be proven. If another lab elsewhere replicates the experiment and gets the same date, maybe it'll move a notch up in my list. But without anything else other than numbers and stats I'll still consider it purely mathematical. After all migration data is still statistics and thats numbers.

Until then I still think the date's too recent.

	30-09-2004 08:29									#65
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quote: i have no doubts that we all share a common ancestor, maybe not as old as the mitochodrial eve, but not as recent as this purely mathematical model suggest.

I believe mitochondrial Eve is by definition, the common ancestor. So far they estimate her around 250,000 years ago. The Sumerians/Akkadians have myths about the creation of the first people and according to the Bible there is a cryptic passage about God's spirit or breath residing in man for 120 years. This has been taken to mean 120 years and researchers say it might refer to how long one of the major patriarchs lived, but this could also mean 120 years in "God's" years, which according to the Mesopotamians, was 3,600 years. That's 432,000 years, and this just happens to be the time frame when anatomically modern humans were "evolving" from a more "primitive" creature - and that's just how the Sumerians describe what happened to "create" us... The gods found a creature they altered to enhance intelligence etc to make a "primitive worker" to slave away for the gods... The Zulu believe in very old times the "artificial ones" went to war with the apemen...

	30-09-2004 08:34									#66
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So the Zulu believe we're the artificial ones?

	30-09-2004 08:36									#67
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quote: Ramo, how did people live in N & S America 6,000 years ago, people who have descendents there today, come from a parent living in SE Asia 3,500 years ago? Or how could Autralian aborigines who've been down under for ~60 k?

Interbreeding into the original population. Let's suppose that a guy gets in the Americas 1500 years ago, let's suppose every generation is 30 years, meaning 50 generations. If, on average, the number of people descended from him increases by 1.5 times each generation, you get .64 billion descendents by today. It's a simple model with made up assumptions, but surely you get the idea.

quote: But there's still many problems with this news, other research estimates the time it takes for color changes, i.e., how fast a black man from Africa would need to live in N Europe to become white. And so far the estimate is 20,000 years. Now, it's possible our common parent was a soldier who got laid alot wherever the army went or Momma was a slave girl or something, maybe even a prostitute...

If you were 10^-32 Vietnamese (i.e. 100 generations away, to be conservative), you wouldn't look very Vietnamese. This has absolutely nothing to do with skin color.

BTW, I don't believe that claim. What about the Roma (originally from South Asia - not a very different skin tone from Subsaharan Africans)? They've turned white in far shorter time periods than 20,000 years.

	30-09-2004 08:38									#68
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quote: At any rate, it's still a theory based on simulation of numbers, yet to be proven. If another lab elsewhere replicates the experiment and gets the same date, maybe it'll move a notch up in my list. But without anything else other than numbers and stats I'll still consider it purely mathematical. After all migration data is still statistics and thats numbers.

I don't think you understand what mathematical modelling is...

	30-09-2004 08:46									#69
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo I don't think you understand what mathematical modelling is...

Maybe I don't. But pinning my believes on just the figures without relating it to all the facts is not something I do.

quote: Interbreeding into the original population. Let's suppose that a guy gets in the Americas 1500 years ago, let's suppose every generation is 30 years, meaning 50 generations. If, on average, the number of people descended from him increases by 1.5 times each generation, you get .64 billion descendents by today. It's a simple model, but surely you get the idea

You have a good point here.

quote: If you were 10-32 Vietnamese (i.e. 100 generations away, to be conservative), you wouldn't look very Vietnamese. This has absolutely nothing to do with skin color.

That's true. This last post actually makes the model clearer, but I still think it's not entirely sound. It's too optimistic.

	30-09-2004 08:49									#70
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quote: Maybe I don't. But pinning my believes on just the figures without relating it to all the facts is not something I do.

Modeling takes factual relationships of a system and defines them in mathematical terms.

	30-09-2004 08:52									#71
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quote: This last post actually makes the model clearer, but I still think it's not entirely sound. It's too optimistic.

I was just throwing out numbers and assumptions that sound semi-reasonable and are fairly simple and put them into a calculator. That's not what these guys did.

	30-09-2004 08:55									#72
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I'll look out for the follow up research, until then I still think 1500 b.c. is too recent. Gotta be one hell of a prolific parent with wanderlust instilled into all the offsprings.

	30-09-2004 08:57									#73
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It is hard to believe that the peoples of America were related to anyone in the old world subsequent to the ice age. Yet, that is what this research implies.

	30-09-2004 09:44									#74
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quote: So the Zulu believe we're the artificial ones?

Yes, but they were referring specifically to ancient Africans. I'm not sure about the Zulu's origin but I believe they came from NE and EC Africa, but what I found interesting was their use of "artificial ones", albeit all peoples believed we were fabricated by God(s).

But there is a Mayan/Toltec legend that says some of the earliest attempts to create humans resulted in strange beings that did not survive, including ape people. The Sumerian tale describes how, far from perfect, the gods charged with our creation were like scientists experimenting on some creature and not every result went as planned, not omnipotent beings who don't screw up.

Ramo -

quote: Interbreeding into the original population. Let's suppose that a guy gets in the Americas 1500 years ago, let's suppose every generation is 30 years, meaning 50 generations. If, on average, the number of people descended from him increases by 1.5 times each generation, you get .64 billion descendents by today. It's a simple model with made up assumptions, but surely you get the idea.

So a SE Asian had (not intentionally of course)
offspring go around the world and supplant existing populations all within the last 3,500 years? Then the mitochondrial Eve would have existed 3,500 years ago...
Was this a math model based on the actual evidence from DNA? While there are cases of minority influxes eventually supplanting a population, that's very rare.
Usually a minority influx results in assimilation, elimination, or deportation. Even with the eons of time separating New World natives and European whites and the clash of cultures and diseases, natives have not been supplanted. But some guy's lineage from 3,500 years ago supplanted the world? Trust me Ramo, there's something wrong with the model.

Also, those numbers seem to make assumptions, that this one line grew and grew and was not subject to all that ails us.

quote: If you were 10-32 Vietnamese (i.e. 100 generations away, to be conservative), you wouldn't look very Vietnamese. This has absolutely nothing to do with skin color.

It does if skin color doesn't change that fast. There's way too much variation in people... Pygmies and Watusis living on the same continent, did this SE Asian guy sire both peoples? Another of his offspring sailed for America, another for Australia, and another for Japan, and so on...

quote: BTW, I don't believe that claim. What about the Roma (originally from South Asia - not a very different skin tone from Subsaharan Africans)? They've turned white in far shorter time periods than 20,000 years.

I'd have to see the research. Many Eskimos appear white where the sun don't shine, but they are newcomers to N America after generations in NE Asia too.

	30-09-2004 09:53									#75
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quote: Gotta be one hell of a prolific parent with wanderlust instilled into all the offsprings.

If true, earth shattering... exxxtremely unlikely...

	30-09-2004 09:54									#76
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Well, I believe in Adam and Eve, Noah's worldwide flood and the Babel story. I believe we could all be descended from Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, and thus all be part Israelite.

	30-09-2004 09:59									#77
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quote: I believe we could all be descended from Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, and thus all be part Israelite.

*cough*Ishmael*cough*

	30-09-2004 10:01									#78
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That's why I don't have believes. But I have strong ideas. Believes are harder to change. You should watch Dogma.

	30-09-2004 10:02									#79
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http://www.macedonia.co.uk/mcic/bal...ia/romahist.asp

The Roma are gypsies with an unclear past, but believed to be from the Kasmir region - close to the aryan migration from much earlier. Do you have a link, Ramo?

	30-09-2004 10:02									#80
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beliefs

and you're suggesting he watch Dogma? DOGMA?!

	30-09-2004 10:04									#81
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Berz, you're misunderstanding the study. It's not that this person's genes have supplanted everyone else's genes, and all variation comes from him; rather, this person has a very small place in all of our genetic histories.

So your objections regarding skin colors or ethnic supplantion aren't relevant.

Regarding the Mitochondrial Eve, she's specifically traced matrilinearly. She's an ancestor of all of us. This person is also an ancestor of all of us. It's just that he/she's among the youngest. So these are two entirely different people.

quote: Also, those numbers seem to make assumptions, that this one line grew and grew and was not subject to all that ails us.

As I said, it's a simple model, but it gives you an idea of how the numbers can grow. I set the generational growth rate fairly low (most people had more than 1.5 surviving kids, especially back then) to compensate for epidemics and whatnot. You can set it lower if you want. I also was pretty conservative with the number of generations.

	30-09-2004 10:04									#82
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Just for the quote

	30-09-2004 10:13									#83
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quote: The Roma are gypsies with an unclear past, but believed to be from the Kasmir region - close to the aryan migration from much earlier. Do you have a link, Ramo?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roma_and_Sinti

	30-09-2004 10:28									#84
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Ramo -

quote: Berz, you're misunderstanding the study. It's not that this person's genes have supplanted everyone else's genes, and all variation comes from him; rather, this person has a very small place in all of our genetic histories.

Ah, that's what I get for not reading the link... But it's based on a model, not DNA evidence, right? It says it could happen, not that it did. They don't have this person's DNA, so how do they know he shows up in everyone sampled? Or are they saying there is a DNA segment common to a particular group of people in SE Asia and more rare around the world? How did they identify this SE Asian influence?

quote: So your objections regarding skin colors or ethnic supplantion aren't relevant.

True

quote: Regarding the Mitochondrial Eve, she's specifically traced matrilinearly. She's an ancestor of all of us. This person is also an ancestor of all of us. It's just that he/she's among the youngest. So these are two entirely different people.

Based on DNA evidence or a math model?

	30-09-2004 10:43									#85
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As I said, it's a mathematical model based on the available evidence regarding the rate of genetic migration. I don't know what they used specifically, whether it's DNA evidence or some other relevant sociological data to determine this rate. There's nothing that makes modeling genetic migration inferior to DNA evidence (indeed, we wouldn't have that without mathematical modelling) as long as the assumptions behind the system are good. And given that the article was published in Nature, they probably were.

The reason it's SE Asia is it's geographic location is apparantly central with regards to genetic spread.

	30-09-2004 10:47									#86
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I should have read the thing, it is a model based on assumptions. This could have happened, not that it did happen.

	30-09-2004 10:49									#87
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Everything in science is a model based on assumptions.

	30-09-2004 10:49									#88
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not wild assumptions...

	30-09-2004 10:51									#89
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You say that, yet you don't have a single clue as to what the assumptions are, much less whether or not they are wild.

	30-09-2004 10:58									#90
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The authors of the article didn't say SE Asia, they said the Pacific Rim and Siberia/E Asia. They're trying to split the difference between the New World and Australasia.
Has that area really seen the most migrations of people? I'd say the Middle and Near East have seen more traffic more consistently...