26-10-2004 19:28									#31
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Something to put on the list for next turn: change Blizzard to DD during build phase, after shortrushing it to knight. It will cost something like 100 gold, but we can use the extra DD next turn. And we should have enough cash to do most necessary upgrades.

DeepO

	26-10-2004 20:02									#32
	Suffering from ads?

Something else to consider: In case we don't attack the BB stack next turn, they will most likely be ideally placed to destroy our lonely empty TR we will leave behind in 242. Which makes the chaining on D-day (243) quite unlikely....

Next turn, it's obvious what we take:
241: 8 M (guaranteed)
242: 4 MI + 4 M? 8 MI? (almost certain)
243: 8 MI? 4 M + 4 MI? (if we get lucky)

I think we should choose to go for 8 MI in 242. We will have 48 marines in transport at that moment, and we should be able to assume that should be enough to breach through. Those 4 MI can make a large difference.

I would keep the marines, and try to send them in 242. You never know what will happen, a fleet with left over marines still poses a considerable threat up North as well.

DeepO

	26-10-2004 20:08									#33
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

OTOH... we could also decide to take 48 M, and nothing more. Some of those M builds next turn could be changed to MI, without loss (Bolderberg should end at 120 shields, for instance, enough for a 110 shield MI).

Come to think of this... I should change 4 builds if possible. Those MI can do their job immediately. They could even board on chainer 1, in turn 241. And we have a couple of cities that can 'only' do 100 spt builds, not ideal for MI... let them build more M next turn.

I'm having too much time to spend on this war

DeepO

	26-10-2004 20:10									#34
	Support Apolyton

Something else on the wishlist: I would welcome a couple of subs, to keep track of Vox. I wouldn't want to be surprised by an attack by them. Maybe worth it to put WoC, once it builds its last M, on subs for 2 or 3 turns.

DeepO

	26-10-2004 22:31									#35
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: The diversion of BBs towards stand alone DDs isn't going to work, I fear. I'm pretty sure that Lego is already onto our N fleet (they passed a sub in that direction 3 turns ago, which would be ideal to be off the coast of Hurricane right now), and otherwise will be very soon. They will not go for a lone DD, when they have a stack of TR closeby.

They might not know where our fleet has gone though.

They have a Sub to spot us with. We don't know where the Sub is, but perhaps it was to be part of the pickets to the N. They didn't have anything N of the Ir at 2 that we could see. Even if their Sub was at Hurricane, they might not know if we went N, S, or E.

If they guess S, they won't see us with the BB's either. If they head S and then next turn all they see are two DD's N of their BB's, they might think we've headed N with the main fleet, and those are just damaged sentry killers headed to join up. They could turn all the way around.

If they guess E, they will spot us with the Sub if it's near Hurricane, and won't otherwise. In this case it's all up to where the Sub is. If it was too far S or N of Hurricane (it wasn't due east of Hurricane or we would of hit it), they might not spot our fleet at all. Again, they would only see 2 DD's, both N of the BB stack.

If they guess N, they will know we didn't go N unless their Sub was S of Hurricane. Again it's up to the position of the Sub. If it was S of Hurricane they wouldn't be able to catch up to our fleet anywhere. All they'll know is we didn't go S. If they spot ships N of their BB's, they might be lead that way.

If their Sub was offshore to the E a few tiles (too bad we didn't run into it with one of our DD's) and sees our fleet, they won't have to guess, and we can be sure the BB's will hit our stack.

quote: Oh, one comment to your misdirection forces: I only half agree that it doesn't cost us anything. It won't damage the main fleet, and that 1/4 DD is only good for bombardment, but the 4/4 DD was scheduled as a picket for our chain (1/4 as well, once it healed in Hurricane, but that's only for turn 244). Everything we've got is going to the N fleet, those chain protectors are scarce.

Yes. I noted the same drawbacks. (I never said it wouldn't cost us anything, just that it wouldn't cost us much).

I think it's worth the shot. It's a gamble of getting by the BB's without a fight, and giving perhaps another turn of using the chain. It costs us 3 DD HP's from the fleet. Even at low odds of working out, it's a worthwhile risk IMO.

We don't have to use the 4/4 if we don't want to either. Use it to protect the chain, and only use the 2 damaged DD for misdirection.

	26-10-2004 22:49									#36
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I'm still worried about the number of Marines. 48 is a bit low. 40 (which could happen if 242 isn't chainable) and we run a pretty decent risk of failing completely. Even if we get through the Infantry, we might not have enough extra Marines to kill off the Cavalry and Tanks that may also be defending.

I think we have to get the 8 surefire Marines. Then at least 4 more as planned. Even just our Tanks are going to eat up an awful lot of Cavalry. Tanks will hurt, but we can counterattack them at least, with blitz on our side.

We can deal with not having any "defenders" at landing. All we need to do is hold out 1 turn in the face of Cavalry and a few Tanks. We can't deal with not breaking through with our Marines.

If we want to make sure we have at least a "top" MI for defense, we could take 6 surefire Marines and with 2 MI. Then 6 probable Marines with 2 probable MI. Then if we've gotten rid of Legos spy they may choose to concentrate on GoW instead of us.

On D-day I think we need to make sure we have 8 more Marines waiting if the chain has survived. (We can't know if it's survived before the build-queue on 243, so if it's survived, and isn't definitely threatened on 242 go with Marines). The MI to send will be upgraded on 242 anyways right?

	26-10-2004 23:05									#37
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

quote: Originally posted by DeepO Something to put on the list for next turn: change Blizzard to DD during build phase, after shortrushing it to knight. It will cost something like 100 gold, but we can use the extra DD next turn. And we should have enough cash to do most necessary upgrades.

Sounds good. We'll have 3 4/4 DD's that can cover the chain (as the Transports leave) then right?

quote: Something else on the wishlist: I would welcome a couple of subs, to keep track of Vox. I wouldn't want to be surprised by an attack by them. Maybe worth it to put WoC, once it builds its last M, on subs for 2 or 3 turns.

A couple Subs would be good. How many shields does WoC put out?

	26-10-2004 23:28									#38
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Sorry, no time to respond... I'm just here to post the battle report. Will get to this tonight.

WoC is at little over 100 spt while not in WLTKD. Not sure how much exactly, but I don't think it can reach 110 spt.

and yes, there should be 3 4/4 DDs, but not all of them present in Hurricane next turn, they come from all over.

I'll look into your diversion with more attention later on

DeepO

	27-10-2004 00:10									#39
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

I would tend towards more Marines as well... don't forget, after the first city captures presumably the neighboring coastal cities will not have the feared back-up defenders represented by their Cavalry and Tanks.

	27-10-2004 04:12									#40
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

economically, I think I can go for 24 M over the next 3 turns, leading our total to a maximum of 64 (of which I think 8 will not arrive Legoland). That's the absolute maximum, not only for our producing cities, but also for our transport capacities before invasion.

However, it means no MI at all, and this I don't like. Even a few MI will work wonders, they are double as strong as I for defending against cav and tanks (not so against arts).
So, could we e.g. take 4 certain MI in turn 242, and fill the rest with all M? This means a maximum of 60 M (8 of which if we get lucky), and 4 MI.

I have to tell you, for completeness, that there is a way to ahve nearly all our chainers to succeed. We currently have 2 empties. We can fill these next turn, and ship them over to the first spot. Next turn, one of those is the regular chainer, and the other returns to Hurricane. In turn 243, the chain is in proper order, however there will eb no empties left: as we fill 2 TR in 241, and 1 TR in 242, all is full.

The advantage is that we can be certain all our chains will succeed. The disadvantage that it only works next turn, at which we will have 12 M, or 8 M and 4 MI, but must fill the rest of the 16 spots with I (or a settler and workers).

So we can still have a choice... in case we would go for a total of 20 extra M, and 4 I, we can be nearly certain they arrive. If we go for MI, we have to wait, and can't be certain of the last TR.

DeepO

	27-10-2004 04:21									#41
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Originally posted by Aeson I'm still worried about the number of Marines. 48 is a bit low. 40 (which could happen if 242 isn't chainable)

Wow... correction. We currently have 40 M on the seas. We will get another 8 next turn (241). That's 48 certain M... we're talking about the next 16, so to a possible 64 M.

I don't think we're paranoid for bringing many M, maybe much too many. There are 2 possible disasters for this invasion of ours. First of all our N fleet sunk before it can unload.... and secondly us not being able to break through the defenses. All the rest is not important if we succeed or not, as it won't be so critical... but it would be a shame to base our analysis on wrong numbers

quote: If we want to make sure we have at least a "top" MI for defense, we could take 6 surefire Marines and with 2 MI. Then 6 probable Marines with 2 probable MI. Then if we've gotten rid of Legos spy they may choose to concentrate on GoW instead of us.

So in total this would bring a max of 60 M, 4 MI in our force (and 34 tanks). 6 M + 2 MI are in my mind never going to arrive, the others we can more or less be certain of. So 54 M, 2 MI, 34 T... a decent invasion force!

quote: On D-day I think we need to make sure we have 8 more Marines waiting if the chain has survived. (We can't know if it's survived before the build-queue on 243, so if it's survived, and isn't definitely threatened on 242 go with Marines). The MI to send will be upgraded on 242 anyways right?

Aeson, we're talking about different things, it's obvious. But I agree with you

The MI will be upgraded in turn 241, next turn. But they can only move in 242, yes. We can build 4 (I think) MI next turn, which can move if we want to.

DeepO

	27-10-2004 04:33									#42
	Tired of ads?

Interesting choices. Up 8 M from what I was thinking is already a great improvement! Do it again!

I think if we go with a sure 52 M and 4 MI it works out best.

	27-10-2004 04:45									#43
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Now that is the kind of mistake we can live with!!

Does that also mean that we might have more capacity for either additional DDs to cover the chain, or earlier Bombers?

	27-10-2004 04:47									#44
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

I wish I could

With chaining 2 TR next turn, we can go for a sure 60 M, and 4 I. Or e.g. 54 M, 6 MI, and 4 I. No instant correcting on D-day, though, as we will trade the certainty for a broken chain (no empty available). In case we get lucky in the 1-1-1 scenario, we can see if we break through and chain another 8 M... or 8 MI (or T even).

Actually, that's not entirely correct either. Okay, a recap, as otherwise we're going to loose count
- Scenario 1-1-1 is simply one TR every turn. As the first 2 turns succeed (turn 241 for sure, turn 242 most likely), this will bring 16 sure spots, and 8 maybe spots.

- Scenario 2-1-0 chains 2 TR in 241, 1 in 242. Problem is we don't have all the forces available we would want in 241.

- Scenario 2-1-(1) is a variation to the last one. We take the certain solution to get at most 60 M to Legoland. Further, we keep the option of correcting us in case we get lucky with Lego (and they keep our chain intact), but it's costly... we need to empty a boat, to make room. In the event of a disaster, and those 60 M aren't going to work, we send over 8 more M (if we can, of course), disband 4 I + 4 T, and replace them with our fresh M.

Mind you... I think that 3rd turn is not going to happy. In which case we would actually be better off with the 2-1-0 scenario anyway.

DeepO

	27-10-2004 04:52									#45
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by Theseus Does that also mean that we might have more capacity for either additional DDs to cover the chain, or earlier Bombers?

Sigh... give them a hand, and they grab for your arm! Sorry that I have to disappoint you, but our production capacity remains limited to some 900 shields (1000 with ample rushing). That's 9 M, T or B each turn. MI are 'for free' as we can upgrade I or rifle.

But I want to warn again that our defense currently is laughable. We've got 2 I in each city, and some 20 rifles spread around. Of that heap, we're going to take additional defenders away for upgrades. Please let us consider this, even if it means that we can't send a continous stream of reinforcements to the front.

I would even consider drafting in cities which are of no use anyway (e.g. Sufa, which produces just a few bpt, nothing more), just to get our defender count up. If GoW would attack, we would be in very serious trouble right now.

DeepO

	27-10-2004 05:04									#46
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Sorry for asking.

	27-10-2004 16:21									#47
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Not at all

After a night sleep, I think we should definately go for the 2-1-(1) scenario. I should have thought of it before, though, as I then could have left 3 T at home.

What I have in mind:
241: We have 12 completing build (13, if we rush a DD in Blizzard). Right now, these are scheduled as M. Build 12 M. Upgrade as many I as possible.
Chain 12 M + 3 I + settler to the Northern fleet
N fleet consists of 52 M, 3 I, 36 T, 5 settlers, 1 empty TR.

242: We can't build 8 M without serious rushing, but we could build 5 (I think). If not enough, we need to divert more cash to rushes.
Chain 5 M + 3 MI to N fleet.
N fleet consists of 57 M, 3 I, 3 MI, 36 T, 5 settlers. No empties left.

243: D-day.
We have another 11 or 12 builds that finish this turn. 8 of those can be M, the rest I strongly suggest MI, or at least something defensive (T could also work).
I doubt our second leg in the chain will be in place, but you never know.
We invade Sando, and see how the attack goes. If we just can't break through and need a couple more M, we empty a T (I think we could e.g. put 8 T on land, no need for outright disbanding. But the troops will be useless that turn). We chain from Hurricane the final batch of troops... which could also consist of extra MI.

Possible N fleet can consist of 65 M, 3 I, 3 MI, 36 T, 5 settlers. 8 of those spots will land, but can't move anymore and are exposed.

-----

I like this method... it holds the least risk, and compared to the 1-1-1 scenario it gives more M for certain, and more M in total. It could potentially be costly (losing movement on 8 T), but in case our 57 M can't break through, I think we will welcome a solution where we can ship a few M to us.

DeepO

	27-10-2004 18:02									#48
	Tired of ads?

Vondrack, in the public forum:

quote: Fourth, minor world power?? So the team with the biggest production, most powerful army and a considerable tech lead is tired of being the fourth world power? Sure ...

They still think we've got the biggest production? Are they delusional or something? I thought that even with mobilisation we were still #3 or so?

Being very restrained and not saying anything though.

	27-10-2004 18:46									#49
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

I saw it too. Don't forget they are fishing as crazy here, they want us to respond. And their assessment is not that far off, I think the 4 of us are close together (GoW obviously on top, as they are in mob too).

I was tempted to post a screenshot of the F11 screen, we are 4th for about everything Who cares, it's the military that counts for the moment.

DeepO

	27-10-2004 18:48									#50
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

The situation has solved itself... MZ didn't show the same restraint

DeepO

	27-10-2004 19:34									#51
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

I've overlooked something so far. Well... it was more a mistake because I miscounted Lego's casualties... there were 3 subs on our side, and we only sank 1 of them. The Northern one should be somewhere in the region of Hurricane (BTW, we spotted a DD near Panama Vox a few turns back). The Southern one should now be somewhere in the region of our South and Deep South fleet.

I'll go scouting next turn with our Southern sub, maybe we can spot it.

DeepO

	27-10-2004 20:30									#52
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

A good beginning.

-Arrian

	28-10-2004 00:14									#53
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: 242: We can't build 8 M without serious rushing, but we could build 5 (I think). If not enough, we need to divert more cash to rushes. Chain 5 M + 3 MI to N fleet. N fleet consists of 57 M, 3 I, 3 MI, 36 T, 5 settlers. No empties left.

Our original goal was 56 M. You've found them, good job! I think 56 M, 4 MI, 3 I, 36 T, 5 Settlers. That would give us 2 MI in each city we keep, and hopefully we won't leave too many Tanks exposed. Otherwise we can have a "top" MI in each city and a couple to cover Tank stacks. They won't keep us safe, but Lego will have to choose between attacking MI on our side or I on GoW's.

Would it be possible to include an Explorer instead of a Inf? We have a decent estimate of where the FP city is, but without the ability to confirm our guess we are taking a huge chance. I don't think Lego will keep inland fortressess manned, rather favoring coastal Cities and perhaps coastal Hill fortresses. So we should be able to uncover most of what we want to see with one Explorer.

Our Fighters can Recon too of course. If they get shot down on Air Superiority missions on t-1 though we'd be in the dark again.

quote: We invade Sando, and see how the attack goes. If we just can't break through and need a couple more M, we empty a T (I think we could e.g. put 8 T on land, no need for outright disbanding. But the troops will be useless that turn). We chain from Hurricane the final batch of troops... which could also consist of extra MI.

Probably would want to drop out 2 Inf (or 1 Inf if we take an Explorer) and 5 Tanks if it comes to that. Gives those lame duck Tanks some cover at least, and keeps 3 more Tanks we can keep active.

Though it's not so much fun trying to change specific units around in a stack of Transports. We'd need to delete an Inf outright, but it would almost surely be "saving" 3 Tanks for our use, which is more valuable. Unless we could land them on the Hill we want to build our harbor city on, Lego would almost have to attack the stack of 8 exposed Tanks with their Cavalry. They won't get any better targets.

-----------

I don't think we need to spot Lego's Subs next turn. Either they will have sight of our fleet(s) already, or they won't sight our fleet(s) at all with them. Even their Subs can't keep up.

I think we should send our N Sub 222. Mid Sub 777 to join up with the fleet if Lego sends their BB's due S and we bombard them, or 77 otherwise. S Sub 888. Two of our Subs need healing badly, and cover until then. The 4/4 Sub can help us cover our chain after D-Day (if such a chain is possible). Other option with that Sub is to send it N to watch Vox.

-----------

Should we plant a spy with Vox? If we find they have no navy we don't have to worry about more Subs to watch them with. Probably worth the cost. Plus we should quickly see how they are going to respond to all this.

	28-10-2004 00:47									#54
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

Was ND suppose to do some spying for everyone?

	28-10-2004 02:46									#55
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Aeson We have a decent estimate of where the FP city is, but without the ability to confirm our guess we are taking a huge chance. So we should be able to uncover most of what we want to see with one Explorer.

How does an Explorer uncover the FP?

quote: Probably would want to drop out 2 Inf (or 1 Inf if we take an Explorer) and 5 Tanks if it comes to that. Gives those lame duck Tanks some cover at least, and keeps 3 more Tanks we can keep active. Though it's not so much fun trying to change specific units around in a stack of Transports. We'd need to delete an Inf outright, but it would almost surely be "saving" 3 Tanks for our use, which is more valuable. Unless we could land them on the Hill we want to build our harbor city on, Lego would almost have to attack the stack of 8 exposed Tanks with their Cavalry. They won't get any better targets.

Why disband the third Infantry? Also, if we included a Settler in the landing stack, they would virtually Have to destroy the stack, no matter the cost (if landed non-adjacent to an existing city).

	28-10-2004 04:11									#56
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

You need one empty space in the TR stack, as the boat that drops the extras, is not the same one as the one that will transport those freshly chained M to Sando. You need shuffling space. But let's worry about the technicallities of that the moment we see we need it... As long as in prinicple it's possible, it's fine.

Including an explorer should work... however... didn't I use the last one last turn to shortrush a M?

I just checked: sorry, no explorer ready. There are 3 in transport already. We could rush the one in Inchon, should be something like 16 gold or so.

DeepO

	28-10-2004 05:09									#57
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: How does an Explorer uncover the FP?

The Explorer explores Lego's interior, and then we can investigate cities to find the FP.

We can probably use our Fighters on Recon missions, but they could get shot down too. Given the importance of identifying the FP city I think we have to have an Explorer along. Sorry for not thinking of this before.

So lets rush the one in Inchon.

	28-10-2004 05:26									#58
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Oh, I never knew that... you have to be able to see a town/city on the map to be able to investigate it?

	28-10-2004 05:33									#59
	Suffering from ads?

Erhm... Aeson, there is one already on board of our Northern fleet. You're talking about a second one, to be shipped next turn, right? I'm not sure if we discussed this beforehand, but it made sense to me to include one in the first wave...

And Theseus: yes indeed. You have to have the square itself uncovered before investigating. Also, fighters don't see very far, and as our carrier isn't going to be able to keep up with the TRs, it is likely it won't be with us anymore on D-day.

---------

Diversion: what if we build a couple of bombers early, and pretend they are based on our carriers, instead of kept aside to be rebased on Legoland? Would that distract any BBs? I'm not sure how we can fit it in with the M builds, but a couple could work.

DeepO

	28-10-2004 06:03									#60
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: Originally posted by DeepO Erhm... Aeson, there is one already on board of our Northern fleet. You're talking about a second one, to be shipped next turn, right? I'm not sure if we discussed this beforehand, but it made sense to me to include one in the first wave...

We just need the one.

I thought we had gone without one for some reason.