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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:20
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Standing Info
2 forest remains, D-ville 99 and WoC 23.
Defense Plan
Aeson's comments
GoW war plans
Invasion plan
Start
- RP sends WM + 100g. Sending WM, iron and furs in return.
- EotS builds Marine, start Marine.
- Hurricane builds transport. Starts airport (placeholder, we currently don't have oil)
- Elipolis builds fighter, starts airport (placeholder)
- Tempest builds Marine, starts Marine.
- WoC builds Marine, starts Marine.
- SA builds Marine. Starts Marine.
- 1200 gold, 70%, 710bpt, -232 gpt. (computers in 1 of 9) 5631/6240 beakers collected.
Modern Era Tech Cost
shortrushes
- we don't have any MI to disband anymore... 2 choices: a worker, or an explorer (no way I'm sacrificing a rifle for this.)
- going for explorer... we won't immediately need him anyway.
- shortrush to settler (25 shields, 100 gold) (this was the last rush in SA, probably).
- shortrush to knight in OG (10 shields, 40 gold)
forces
(- 2 galley)
- 14 art
- 24 workers (+.1/turn)
- 9 settlers (+.53/turn)
- 20 rifle
- 57 inf
- 40 Marines (+8.24/turn)
- 70 tanks (+.25/turn)
- 24 DD
- 26 transports
- 2 carrier
- 3 sub
- 3 explorer (+ .14/turn)
- 2 fighter (+0/turn)
- Strong in strength to GoW, to ND, and to Lego.
Legoland forces:
- 2 settler
- 15 worker (-2 since last turn)
- 8 horsemen
- 51 Cavalry
- 85 infantry (+1)
- 61 artillery
- 16 ironclad
- 15 transport
- 8 subs (+2)
- 8 DD
- 9 BB
- 2 bomber (+1)
CH, could you give this to GoW? They might be interested
A question: would anybody be interested in storing this information in some kind of intelligence thread of sorts? Just to have all the numbers on their forces, over all the turns. It would provide a nice source of information, but I don't feel like doing it (sorry).
- Lego navy in Mare Nostrum
- 3 subs
- 6 ironclad (expecting one more up North)
- 4 DD (expecting 2 more up North, at most)
- 7 BS (looks like their defense force)
Moves
- 2 inf (from SS and EotS) pillage road and RR on the oil. 4 workers (moved beforehand) build road, RR and irr.
Battlereport
DD from Hurr 6 moves to Ir (forgot to record its name). We attack, and declare war.
I can't take screenshots while the battle is occuring, don't know precisely what's happening. I wanted to have the sinking moment, but instead it only lets me have the 'after' image. Sorry.
the following is a screenshot on how the battles occured, to picture it easier.
(DD1 is the first, but it was moved before the screenshot was made. Sorry, didn't want to reload because I forgot to do it beforehand).
DD1 attacks Ir ... . DD 4/4.
DD2 attacks Ir Southfork. DD 1/4.
DD3 attacks DD Achilles. DD 2/4.
Sub1 attacks DD Poseidon . Sub 2/4.
DD4 attacks DD Argonout. DD 2/4.
Sub2 attacks Sub U-Q2. Sub 1/4.
DD5 attacks DD Athena. DD 2/4.
DD6 attacks Ir Dagger. DD 2/4.
DD7 attacks Ir Sledgehammer. DD 3/4.
DD8 attacks Ir Maul. DD destroyed. Ir Maul 3/4.
DD9 attacks Ir Maul(3/4). DD promotes to elite 4/5.
DD10 attacks Ir Iron. DD 3/4.
Total: 12 attacks, 11 won, 1 lost, 1 promotion.
We lost 1 DD.
Lego lost 7 Ir, 2 Sub, 4 DD.
end of battle screenshot:
Moving remaining ships. Darker red polygon indicates attack range of BS stack. Lighter red indicates bombing range of BS stack.
North fleet to be covered by 7 DD now, with 4 more close by for next turn. South fleet covered by 5 DD. Deep South covered by 1 DD, 3/4.
Loading transports:
North fleet gets
- 40 marines
- 5 settlers
- 1 explorer
- 34 tanks
with 3 empty transports, that makes a convoy of 11 Tr.
South fleet:
- 36 tanks
- 4 settlers
- 4 workers
- 2 explorer
- 18 inf
both carriers carry 1 fighter. Did some scouting with one, but without much effect. Can they spot subs, BTW?
With our forces gone, I'm looking into our defense plan. taking into account that there is no way Lego can attack us with marines for the time being.
on Stormia, we've got:
- 20 rifles
- 36 infs
- 14 art
each city takes 2 inf, except inner most cities (we simply don't have the forces). All mountains get a rifle. The rest is distributed to WoC, hurricane, Elipolis. Our defense is minimal, I'll be glad once we've got MI covering our cities.
End of turn screenshot:
workforce shuffles
- WoC takes grass from Inchon instead of coast. tweak next turn in case we can get to 100 spt with the coast.
- Inchon canges to tax man instead of grass.
- WW gives desert to OG. Takes coast instead.
- OG loses WLTKD next turn, and would otherwise end up 1 shield short.
Current Builds
I want to change all possible builds to MI next turn. If GoW would attack, they would wait best to D-day. We would lose rubber, making MI inpossible to build (unless we secure a source on Legoland). As precaution, let's start those, and if GoW keeps friendly, change them back to tanks / bombers or whatever.
Another note: we will loose WLTKD in many cities next turn. It should not affect many cities.
Eli : bomber in 3. Will lose spt next turn, make it more suitable to 34 spt builds.
Inchon : Explorer in 2
WoC : Marine in 1
Inchoff : Marine in 1
D-ville : Marine in 1
Santa Ana : Marine in 1
Blizzard : Tank in 2 (losing shields, can't be helped)
Monsoon : Marine in 1
Arashi : Marine in 1
WW : Tank in 2
Tempest : Marine in 1
SS: settler in 3 (shows 4)
Hurricane : Transport in 2
OG : Marine in 1
EotS : Marine in 1
Bolderberg : Marine in 1
Cyclone: settler in 1(worker next, we've got 10 settlers at this point)
Tornado : Marine in 1
Typhoon : Marine in 1 (lost WLTKD. Hopefully not catastrophic)
Sufa : Worker in 1
Diplo
- Lego Mot Transport (and tanks) to be expected in turn 242.
- Vox discovered or traded for Marines last turn! Both they and Lego currently have it. Does this mean we need to get a spy into Vox asap?
- pillaging oil for RP. Instant rebuilding, once the deal ended. A bit of a problem is that oil was a package deal with iron and furs... the whole deal was cancelled once the oil was unavailable. Offering iron and furs accepted to RP. Changed Hurricane to transport, and Elipolis to bomber (marine would take too long).
Other
- Something I haven't noticed last turn (I can't say for sure if I just didn't post it, if it was some kind of bug, or if it simply wasn't there...): Leopolis has the symbol of the Lego CIA next to its name. Apart from Arashi, it is the only city which shows a CIA. It's logical to assume it only shows once espionage is discovered, but it could also be that Legoland finished it last turn. At any rate, we can be certain they can build spies.
- What is Lego building, when it is not building units? I only count 3 new units last turn. It's too early to prebuild tanks in most of their cities, are they going for mass airports or something like that? Currently, I can spot one airport: Legopolis. Vox has none, GoW has none, ND has 5(huh?).
- cost of removing the Lego spy (does anybody even consider them not having planted a spy with us?) = 310 gold (safely).
- cost of investigating Sando = 114 gold.
- cost of investigating Quanto = 219 gold.
Diplo Bug with GoW. - slightly concerned about lux expiry.
Next Turn
- evade enemy forces, and sail forward 
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:20
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Thanks  We're not over the pond yet, though
One correction: our Northern fleet consists of 10 full transports, and 3 empties, so a total of 13. Not 11 as reported...
add 8 in our Southern fleet, 3 in the Deep South, and another 2 in port in Hurricane. Last TR is complete in 2 turns, to a total of 27.
I'm looking into what to do next turn.
1. I think, first priority would be to see where the BS stack is. Maybe we can spot it immediately, maybe we need to use our Sub (if still alive).
2. assess the damage Lego will do to our ships. Many of them are currently wounded, and without cover... ideally for Subs.
3. In case we've got a half chance of damaging the BS stack, I think we should go for it. We should have 4 wounded ships able to bombard, and another 8 full health DD in range (or nothing in range at all). If those 7 BB are the only thing we spot, we can at least damage them. It's a lot more favourable to attack them, than it would be to get attacked.
4. In case we are out of range, we try to stay out of their attack range (which will be very unlikely). Lego can have 2 shots at our Northern fleet before we are safe. If they play it well, and with good intelligence, it will be hard for us to get by undamaged. A lot depends on how many subs they have deployed in 'our' sea.
Any guesses at the strategic decisions Lego is going to make when they open the turn?
- go for the supply lines with the BS?
- focus on subs to prevent chaining?
- try to block with the BB stack?
- go straight for the first fleet they spot?
- rely on still-to-build bombers to give us a good beating before moving the BBs in for the kill? (can be done at least on turn T-1, as bombers have range 6, and our TR only range 5)
I wonder how much of the thinking work can be done beforehand. If at all possible, I'd like to avoid any major decisions while playing the turn (deciding where a ship should stop to keep out of range is one thing, deciding where to move the whole fleet a totally other).
Something I also noticed while playing this one is that the format I've been using for the turn threads doesn't work well in a war. I think it's going to become more fragmented, where I post a screenie and some explanation, and leave time for arguments while I do the economic stuff. Really major decisions will get 24h or so, in such a case the time limits don't apply anyway.
I hope this war will make this game interesting again to many of our members. We've been building too long, planning too much... at least we can have some fun now too. Well... assuming all goes well, of course
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:20
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I'm kind of hoping Lego would move their BBs straight South. That would leave them open for attack from our main stack. We can at that position bombard them with DDs in total 12 times, with all of our ships getting under cover of the main fleet. That should be enough to get a hit on all the BBs.
But the question is more if we would try to take them out, or not. I count at T-2 (next turn) 11 DD which can defend a TR (as it has to be at least 2/4, otherwise the TR will be first to get hit), and 2 empty TR. We could e.g. use 6 DD to bombard, and use the other 6 4/4 DDs to have a shot at the BBs. Very likely, we will kill 2-4 BBs, and still have 6 ships defending before any marines are sunk.
Only damaging the BS also works, though. We've got more ships than them, if we both keep bombarding each other, we should get the advantage in the end. But I wonder how safe that is
DeepO
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asleepathewheel
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listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:20
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Can you imagine opening up the save as lego, and finding your entire picketline gone? Naked to the world.
We should delay our release of info until RP has nearly sent the turn, don't want to give lego a few extra days notice, we aren't going to get it.
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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:20
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If they move the BB's towards our stack:
6 bombard, 6 attack option is decent. Use the Fighter(s?) to bombard too. I'd say bombard until we get 3 hits in or we've used 6 (Fighter, then 2/4 DDs, then 4/4 DDs). If we get lucky and hit 3 times before we've taken 6 shots, we've gotten our "bombard quota" and then attack with healthy DD's. Goal is to severely injure the BB stack and hope the survivors turn back to heal (they can outrun us). The drawback to this is all our attackers face a bombard shot (8) from the BB stack, then probably 45% odds.
Another option would be to bombard with the Fighter, and then attack with the DDs. 4/4's first, 2/4's if we open up any 2/4 or 1/4 BB's. Goal is to sink all the BB's or as close to it as we can. First 7 get hit with bombard shots, and then the other's don't have to take bombard.
If we can kill their 7 BB's, we stand a chance of making it to T-3 without our north fleet status being known. They have a spy, so they'll know our ship numbers of course, and battle reports will give them a basic idea of how many HP's our ships have, but they might not be able to see where they all are. Our S and deep S stacks might be in the main fleet for all they know, and so that fleet may look too intimidating to try to take at sea (especially if we've sunk their 7 BB's!). If their BB's are exchanging bombardment with our fleet, they will realize the damage they can do to us by rushing more ships along the coast.
One Sub would ruin the whole thing of course, it might be worth the risk to try and keep them in the dark about exactly where our ships are.
(anyone who can run the simulation? What are our exact numbers? 1 1/4 DD, 1 2/4 DD, 10 4/4 DD, with 1 2/4 DD able to join up but not able to bombard the first turn, and 1 1/4 Sub and 1 4/4 Sub able to join up by T-3?)
If we attack with all our DDs we can expect 3-4 of them get hit by defensive bombardment (8 vs 8 over 7 battles). That gives us 6 4/4 DD, 4 3/4 DD, 1 2/4 DD, 1 1/4 DD. The 1/4 DD would bombard. The Fighter would bombard. The 4 3/4 DDs would attack (they become 3/4 when attacking) with 30% odds.
Here's what would be the most expected (or close to it) result. Results could vary a lot though!
3/4 DD kills BB, 1/4 DD
3/4 DD sinks to BB, 1/4 BB
3/4 DD sunk by BB, 2/4 BB
3/4 DD sunk by BB, 3/4 BB
Then 6 4/4 DD attack with 45% odds: (3 4/4 BB, 3/4 BB, 2/4 BB, 3/4 BB)
4/4 DD sinks BB, 1/4 DD
4/4 DD sunk by BB, 1/4 BB
4/4 DD sunk by BB, 2/4 BB
4/4 DD sinks 3/4 BB, 2/4 DD
4/4 DD sinks 2/4 BB, 2/4 DD
4/4 DD sinks 2/4 BB, 1/4 DD
2/4 DD sinks 1/4 BB, 1/4 DD
That would leave our fleet with 2 2/4 DD and 3 1/4 DD. All 7 BB would be sunk.
I've assumed that all 7 BB would get their defensive bombard shots. More likely that we'd sink 1-2 before it got the chance. That would be another HP to us. I gave Lego 2/3 of the 45% battles, which could swing our way as well. To offset this, I gave us both the "good odds" battles (66% and 75%) as victories, which we of course could lose.
Compare this to the expected bombard exchange:
11 DD bombard 7 4/4 BB at 31% odds to hit (6 vs 12). Result would be 4 4/4 BB, 3 3/4 BB.
Now they can attack or bombard. 7 BB bombard our fleet at 47.6% odds (8 vs 8) and 2 fp. Result would be 6 4/4, 3/4, 4 2/4, 1/4 DD.
We can now bombard. This time we'd hit 4 times, so they'd have 7 3/4 BB.
They can attack or bombard. 7 BB bombard our fleet at 47.6% odds (8 vs 8) and 2 fp. Result would be 2 4/4, 2 3/4, 6 2/4, 1/4 DD.
We can now make the landing. Gives us pretty good leeway to account for other Lego attacks. We have 10 DD that need to be taken out of the picture before our Transports start getting hit... if on the other hand Lego attacks with the BB...
11 DD bombard 7 4/4 BB at 31% odds to hit (6 vs 12). Result would be 4 4/4 BB, 3 3/4 BB.
Now they can attack or bombard. 3 4/4 BB attack our fleet (10 4/4 DD, 2 2/4 DD, 1/4 DD) at 83.3% odds.
4/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD, 3/4 BB
4/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD, 2/4 BB
4/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD, 1/4 BB
Leaving us 7 4/4 DD, 2 2/4 DD, 1/4 DD. 3 3/4 BB attack our fleet at 68.9% odds. (1 3/4 is due to defensive bombardment and starts out 4/4)
3/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD 2/4 BB
3/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD 1/4 BB
3/4 BB sunk by 4/4 DD 1/4 DD
Leaving us 4 4/4 DD, 2 2/4 DD, 2 1/4 DD. A 2/4 BB attacks our fleet (starts out 3/4 but defensive bombardment hits one of the 3 "base" 3/4) at 47% odds.
2/4 BB sunk by 4/4 DD, 1/4 DD.
That leaves them with 3/4 BB, 2 2/4 BB, 2 1/4 BB. We have 3 4/4 DD 2 2/4 DD, 3 1/4 DD.
We can bombard 8 times, hitting 2 times. Leaving them with 2 2/4 BB, 3 1/4 BB.
They then attack. (Probably wouldn't unless other ships/bombers were able to expose transports, which isn't that likely as we need to have our DD's hit for 11 more HPs.) 2 2/4 BB attack at 47% odds.
2/4 BB sinks 4/4 DD, 1/4 BB
2/4 BB sunk by 4/4 DD, 1/4 DD
1/4 BB bombards 4/4 DD, 3/4 DD
1/4 BB sunk by 3/4 DD, 1/4 DD
1/4 BB sunk by 3/4 DD, 2/4 DD
So we make it to land with 3/4 DD, 3 2/4 DD, 5 1/4 DD in that case.
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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:20
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A quick look:
Outright DD attack on T-2.
GS: 2 2/4 DD and 3 1/4 DD
Lego: Battleships sunk
Bombard exchange T-2 and Lego T-1:
GS: 2 4/4 DD, 2 3/4 DD, 6 2/4 DD, 1/4 DD
Lego: 7 3/4 BB
Bombard from GS, outright attack by Lego:
GS: 3/4 DD, 3 2/4 DD, 5 1/4 DD
Lego: 2 1/4 BB
So it looks like we want bombardment exchange, or having Lego attack us. We have enough cover to make it to the landing without Transports taking hits as long as Lego doesn't build a ton more DD and/or Bombers to hit us with the next couple of turns.
Most likely thing that will happen is bombardment exchange on T-2, Lego positions so we can't bombard and get to our T-3 zone, so we can't hit back. Then T-1 Lego hits us with 4 4/4 BB, 3 3/4 BB and whatever else they can muster in the way of produced DD and Bombers. Still don't think they'll get to hits on Transports.
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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:20
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Another thing we can try is misdirection with our DD's. Would Lego pass up going out of the way to sink a 1/4 or 2/4 DD that is parked next to them?
If they end up moving 6 tiles S, we can put DD's on their NW, W, SW, and N and hope they chase them. They would be DD's that either couldn't make it to our fleet, or ones which we won't get much use out of anyways. Probably our best bet now that I think of it. Our N fleet would move 66666 and just be out of range of sight from the BB's. DD 6669 of Blizzard would move 66666 and end up 8887 of BB's out of sight. 1/4 DD 9 of fleet would move 66, bombard BB's and move 88 staying in sight. 2/4 DD 666 of fleet would move 8, bombard BB's, and then move 87 to stack with the 1/4 DD. If they go for our weak DD stack, they go out of their way with at least 2 BB, and then would sight our 4/4 DD up further north too. 2/4 DD 666333 of fleet would move 88877 to end up 9 of BB stack. Wouldn't be able to bombard, but might draw another BB a little out of the way.
If we only have to deal with 4-5 BBs I think we become much more safe. If they don't go for it, we don't actually lose much, and our ships could just start bombarding some of Lego's tiles to make them pay for ignoring our ships. We're only going to hit the BB's 7 times (and if Lego is smart they can cut that to 3) with our bombardment at best anyways, which won't really affect things at all. We would be down 2 DDs that could defend before Transports in the fleet though, and not be set up very well to defend the chain.
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:20
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Nice analysis, Aeson.
The diversion of BBs towards stand alone DDs isn't going to work, I fear. I'm pretty sure that Lego is already onto our N fleet (they passed a sub in that direction 3 turns ago, which would be ideal to be off the coast of Hurricane right now), and otherwise will be very soon. They will not go for a lone DD, when they have a stack of TR closeby.
That also answers, in my eyes, the question about whether it would pay to outright attack them. It would be nice to destroy the stack, as it can do more damage later on too, but not if that risks our invasion. We have to assume they know exactly how many ships are in the N fleet. We have to assume that, with only a shard of intelligence, they are currently rushing DDs and Subs in their Western coastal cities. So, over the next 2 turns, we are going to face another 3-4 ships (DDs let's say).
In that situation, there is no option to risk losing all our defenders. So bombard what we can, if they somehow split their stack (I don't see them doing it, but you never know. They don't know our goal on their coast, so could decide to cover both North and South with 2 stacks) we attack in full force. I only hope they won't stay out of range for bombardment, attacking in 2 turns undamaged. At that time, we are at risk. But as said... they don't know where we are going, even with their increased speed it makes it difficult to predict where they need to end their turn to be safe from our bombardment.
Oh, one comment to your misdirection forces: I only half agree that it doesn't cost us anything. It won't damage the main fleet, and that 1/4 DD is only good for bombardment, but the 4/4 DD was scheduled as a picket for our chain (1/4 as well, once it healed in Hurricane, but that's only for turn 244). Everything we've got is going to the N fleet, those chain protectors are scarce.
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:20
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quote:
Originally posted by asleepathewheel
Can you imagine opening up the save as lego, and finding your entire picketline gone? Naked to the world. |
It will be a bit of a shock, I think. But they should have realised that this was going to happen: all of their pickets were in range (just like all of ours were in range of their ships). It will be demoralizing, though
quote:
We should delay our release of info until RP has nearly sent the turn, don't want to give lego a few extra days notice, we aren't going to get it. |
I don't know, sleepy. This is also a bit the wrong thread to discuss it, but it's my feeling that if we give the information faster than strictly necessary, we can hope this game goes at considerable pace. If they can prepare a little, Lego might be able to stick to the 24h limit. Once the war has started, we can't, realistically. It takes more than a day to assess the situation, and act on that.
For that reason only, I would be willing to give it to them faster... we take the time we need as well, but doing so will hold up the whole group. They get more time, which is 'free'. I certainly agree that giving them a week, while only taking a day or so ourselves isn't favourable ata ll, so in case it comes to that, we can delay. But right now? I would give it to them asap.
DeepO
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DeepO
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supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:20
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Come to think about it: Sleepy, you might be right. There is one serious downside on those battle reports that I haven't heard being mentioned. By giving out the information on which forces were distroyed, Lego can hack into its build queue, and (short) rush and / or change where needed. They don't need to play with the forces they've got, which, e.g. for possible extra DD rushes, could be a serious threat to us.
However, there are 2 counter arguments. What they do, we can do as well... we just wait for the battlereports before opening the save, analyse, and decide what to rush. And secondly: We did the same in the Voxian war, by moving the first 'build completed' screen out of the way, and seeing the battle before deciding what to rush or change.
It remains a serious drawback, but I don't think it will change the game for us if we give them the reports early on.
Oh, and Aeson: No, we don't know if GoW declares war or not on this turn. I didn't get a response to my last message. We didn't get a response to our computer question either... and they haven't yet discovered radio.
DeepO
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25-10-2004 16:11
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