03-11-2004 19:55									#1
	Paging Ben Kenobi... wager's due! Suffering from ads?

Dear BK,

While the election has not turned out as I had hoped, our wager certainly has. Even with OH, IA and NM, Bush isn't close to 2/3 of the electoral votes or 2/3 of the states.

However, I shall wait until Kerry concedes to present you with your new avatar.

I trust Guynemer will be able to direct you to the proper resources for your upcoming volunteer work with Planned Parenthood, or whatever it was you two stipulated.

Regards!

	03-11-2004 20:06									#4
	Got spare money?

Bunnygrrl, to Che:

"YOU BET HOW MUCH???






...ON DEAN???"

	03-11-2004 20:09									#5
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Ouch.

What will the avatar be?

Planned Parenthood? Can Ben do that?

	03-11-2004 20:10									#6
	Got spare money?

Ben's prolly a happy camper today, given the results of the "ban gay marriage" amendments. :vomit:

-Arrian

	03-11-2004 20:16									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Ben's prolly a happy camper today, given the results of the "ban gay marriage" amendments. :vomit: -Arrian

One less temptation for him to elope with the local priest.

	03-11-2004 20:31									#8
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@ OP

	03-11-2004 20:53									#9
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BK has the most ridiculous election predictions...

First in Canada, now in the US.

	03-11-2004 20:58									#10
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Ben's position on anything is pretty ridiculous.

	03-11-2004 20:59									#11
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2/3 of 538 = 359 or so.

To get that many Bush would have had to pick up:

PA
Wisc
Mich
NJ
NH
Oregon

and a state like Illinois in which there was a 10 point spread for Kerry

	03-11-2004 21:00									#12
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Said thing is the're more in line with the majority than ours are.

	03-11-2004 21:00									#13
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So he would have had to win every race in which he was within 6% as well as one in which he was 10 points back.

	03-11-2004 21:23									#14
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I haven't seen the statewide figures.

And Bush did better than anyone else figured that he would do.

So I have no qualms about being overly optimistic about Bush, better to reach for the stars and miss, than to aim for nothing and get it.

	03-11-2004 21:25									#15
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Actually, I figured Bush would win, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.

He only lost New Jersey by 5, and won everything else by the margin he needed to do.

So not that far off.

Another 5 percent in Jersey, and a couple percent in Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and I win my bet.

You also forget to include Iowa, Nevada, NM in the Bush column, which is why you erroneously believe I need Illinois.

I never predicted Bush to take Illinois.

In fact, even as late as 12 am PST, I had a chance in California.

	03-11-2004 21:26									#16
	Increase the size of your Attachments

So where's the avatar?

	03-11-2004 21:31									#17
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Don't give in Ben!

Hold out till they count all the Provisional Ballots!

	03-11-2004 22:57									#18
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Well, without New Jersey

I need Bush to win

NM, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon.

Now, the biggest margin I would have had to overcome is 5 percent in Oregon, which will narrow, as they count the last 6% of the vote.

So not that far off. Bush lost by 3 in Michigan, Minnesota, and only 2 in Pennsylvania.

Pretty good prediction considering that I made it way back in February.

Better than Zogby that's for sure.

	03-11-2004 23:02									#19
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And 2/3rds of the states, means I need only NM, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

So that's hardly out of reach.

I'm rounding them all down, because the prediction was very much in your favour.

	03-11-2004 23:42									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi I haven't seen the statewide figures. And Bush did better than anyone else figured that he would do

How so?

He lost 1 state (NH) and gained 2 (Iowa and NM)

Not exactly a huge shift from 2000

This result is very close to what I expected.

	03-11-2004 23:46									#21
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Actually, I figured Bush would win, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. He only lost New Jersey by 5, and won everything else by the margin he needed to do. So not that far off. Another 5 percent in Jersey, and a couple percent in Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and I win my bet.

Completely untrue. Unless you're talking about 2/3 of actual numbers of states. I mentioned 2/3 of electoral college votes, which is one of the two conditions previously mentioned. A gain from what actually happened of NJ, Mich, PA and Wisc only gets him to 330 EC votes or so. Still a long way from 359.

quote: You also forget to include Iowa, Nevada, NM in the Bush column, which is why you erroneously believe I need Illinois.

Already included. Please read. I was listing states which Bush needed to win which he did not in order to take 2/3 of EC. Nevada, NM and Iowa already counted.

quote: In fact, even as late as 12 am PST, I had a chance in California.

	04-11-2004 02:08									#22
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quote: How so? He lost 1 state (NH) and gained 2 (Iowa and NM) Not exactly a huge shift from 2000 This result is very close to what I expected.

He was really close to taking PA, MI, MN, still might get WI.

That's why I gambled on him getting 2/3rds.

	04-11-2004 02:09									#23
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And tose still don't get you into 2/3 of EC votes territory.

Not even close. Would you like me to do the math again?

	04-11-2004 02:10									#24
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quote: Completely untrue. Unless you're talking about 2/3 of actual numbers of states. I mentioned 2/3 of electoral college votes, which is one of the two conditions previously mentioned. A gain from what actually happened of NJ, Mich, PA and Wisc only gets him to 330 EC votes or so. Still a long way from 359.

Minnesota too. You keep forgetting Minnesota and Oregon.

All of these gets him very close.

Also, remember the bet had both 2/3rds of the actual states, (38 rounded down), and 2/3rds of the college, which is 358 rounded down.

He wasn't that far.

	04-11-2004 02:16									#25
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All right, step by step.

Bush, with Ohio and Nevada has 274 EC votes.

5 for NM, 7 for IA brings him up to 286

4 for NH gives him 290

PA gives him 311

MI gives him 326

WI gives him 336

MN gives him 346

NJ gives him 361

OR he could get 7 for Oregon and 4 for Hawaii, and lose New Jersey.

	04-11-2004 02:20									#26
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So are you guys taking suggestions for Ben's avatar?

I like these:

Attachment: gay-parade-20.3.jpg
This has been downloaded 196 time(s).

	04-11-2004 02:21									#27
	Put an end to popups!

Or

Attachment: light.jpg
This has been downloaded 192 time(s).

	04-11-2004 02:25									#28
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I'm waiting to find out.

If he puts it up now, then I can put it up before I have to go out tonight.

	04-11-2004 02:26									#29
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@ Aggie.

	04-11-2004 02:28									#30
	Inflate your Upload Space

I wonder if the rollerblader is Fez. It looks a bit like him.