07-11-2004 05:35									#31
	Increase Your PM Length

Strange that you say that, Aeson. I've been thinking on how they could prevent, or hamper an invasion... their best bet is disbanding at least a couple of cities. But don't give them any ideas!

Other options: rushing a hospital in Sando, and adding 10 workers to the city. Also, adding 5 workers to Quanto would prevent us from bombing it to >size 12.

At any rate, we can, at great cost, use our marines elsewhere. They are chainable up to Tiperrary, but we would have to make room for them by disbanding units (something I would not do lightly).

Worst case scenario: we just sail around Lego for a couple of turns with ouyr fleet, hoping that they eventually disband all their coastal cities

DeepO

	07-11-2004 05:39									#32
	Suffering from ads?

I've also been thinking on giving the precise fleet locations to the public (and thus to Lego). They can't see our S fleet, if they don't have a sub nearby. It would be best if they spot those as well, so they at least protect Abilene with plenty of defenders as well, instead of only protecting the Northern fork.

OTOH, our N fleet is relatively safe from those BBs, our S fleet is not. We could loose a couple of transports doing that.

DeepO

	07-11-2004 05:40									#33
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Now that is a scary thouht, let's hope they don't have it. (abandon cities).

	07-11-2004 05:43									#34
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

well... even if they see it, I'm not sure they would go for it. As far as I can tell, Lego is far more emotional about their cities than we would be. I don't think anybody in GS would hesitate to disband a couple of our (minor) cities, if that saves the rest (in any invasion, we would more or less need to do it anyway). Lego? Don't know...

DeepO

	07-11-2004 05:44									#35
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

DeepO, I think if we were to give them info on the fleet, it could tip them to it being a faint. Of course is is nothing if they don't see it, but they probably have.

If they don't see it, they may have to defend that city anyway.

	07-11-2004 05:49									#36
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

there are ways of providing this info... all it takes is a screenshot in the battle report thread, and some sort of explanation like: "the skirmishes are over, here comes the real battle!"

They would recognise it as something fishy, but it's already a double faint: those empty transports in our deep South fleet are pure decoys (they can see them, btw). However, I think we want them to see the S fleet.

There is one good thing about all this: last turn, they most certainly saw our combined S and Deep S fleet. They sunk a sub within visual range. So there won't be much need for extra attention to this, Lego knows there are 11 Transports near, and most likely go searching for them if they only see 3.

DeepO

	07-11-2004 05:55									#37
	Put an end to popups!

The moment we can, I've got something else on the wishlist: a spy in Vox. As long as Lego doesn't build any marines, Stormia is safe from them. However, they could very easily use Vox to create a beachhead, receive the city as a gift, and move onwards with tanks. I'd consider it one of the best possible counterattacks they can use, and it would devestate us. Also, we currently have no warning whatsoever as our Voxian pickets are now protecting the chain

DeepO

	07-11-2004 06:00									#38
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

back to spying: I'm doubting if it wouldn't have been better to expose their spy this turn, instead of the next. Not only would we get another chance in case we fail, but also it would prevent them from exposing our spy in their coming turn.

I think the difference is in whether we stress us keeping our cities hidden from Lego, or us investigating their cities. With exposure this turn, we would have been nearly certain we can look into their cities next turn. With exposure next turn, we risk them exposing us first, but in case they don;t do that, it increases our chances of keeping our new cities hidden by 30%.

Not that it matters anymore, as the turn has been played. But part of this tension building is that you start to doubt every single thing, every decision made.

DeepO

	07-11-2004 06:28									#39
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

I've been thinkin gof the disbanding ever since first joining. Posts on our defense include our doing it.

I didn't want to mention it for fear it would jinx the whole thing, but superstition be damned, we need to know what we're going to do if it happens. They only need to disband enough so that we can't get the good splits and they can focus their defenders.

	07-11-2004 06:44									#40
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

That would be a brilliant defensive move by them, surely.

If that happens, I propose we hunt blockade the remaining ports and hunt down their fleets and begin building bombers to destroy every tile improvement within range of the coast. That will hurt them. Make a wasteland out of their coastline. Pummel their cities.

	07-11-2004 06:47									#41
	Inflate your Upload Space

Why would you fear it would stop us from invading? I remember those posts you made after rejoining, they are linked in every turnthread I create. At the time you first mentioned it, I haven't seen any comments in this forum regarding it... but that's exactly the thing, right. We're still thinking too much as a SP game. In SP, you very rarely would even consider disbanding one of your own cities (especially after 242 turns), as there is no real threat that needs it. For most, a SP game is also something where you are emotionally involved with what you've got. And that gets in the way of logical thinking.

The same with the settler hopping thing. Since you first raised the idea, I tried it in a game, just to see how effective it really is. It's devastating... you can easily take a whole AI empire in just one turn with good planning and plenty of settlers (and plenty of tanks as well, of course). So why is this not a tactic everybody uses? Simply because once you capture a city, you are emotionally involved, and don't want to throw it away in that same turn. Plus, you have to plan this meticously, in that you need enough settlers, at the right places, and only very few people do that in SP. It's easier to take it a bit slower, and conquer the AI in 5 turns, instead of in 1.

We mentioned to GoW that we were going to settler-hop, and asked if they have a couple of settlers with them. Fine... they take 3 (we take 10). How are they going to use them? IMHO, they are going to move them forward together with a SoD, and at the beginning of turn 243 build a city, using that as a base of operations. Which is completely different from our approach. But let them do it their way, we can only gain from it.

I don't see Lego disbanding cities so easily now (perhaps they will do it in a few turns, if it looks like they are losing). And if they do, there is very little we can do to prevent it. We ship our backup forces (in case the chain is not broken), and attack the lightest target in full force. Or, we chain our marines over to the best target (which could be Abilene) at great cost. Final possibility is to land all our forces in the open, but I'd like to keep that to a really final solution... it's not that there is a big fear of being decimated, but it would destroy all forking we've done, and create only 2 or 3 cities Lego has to protect.

BTW, once we've settle hopped, disbanding cities as part of our defense strategy is not going to work that well. If we can bring 10 settlers, others can to... with only a minimum of road intact, our empire can fall in 1 turn.

DeepO

	07-11-2004 06:50									#42
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel If that happens, I propose we hunt blockade the remaining ports and hunt down their fleets and begin building bombers to destroy every tile improvement within range of the coast. That will hurt them. Make a wasteland out of their coastline. Pummel their cities.

we can't do that, unfortunately. Lego can outproduce us 2 to 1... maybe even more. If we let it come to a long stretched battle, we will face a BB for every DD we can build, and 2 fighters for every bomber we can build. It's now that we have to strike, we can't come back to Stormia, and start building another composition of force.

DeepO

	07-11-2004 06:55									#43
	Got spare money?

quote: Why would you fear it would stop us from invading?

No. It's just a superstition thing. Where speaking about it might make it more likely to happen.

	07-11-2004 06:58									#44
	Inflate your Upload Space

I'm not that superstitious myself... I rather identify threats, and try to find solutions proactively. Damn engineering education

DeepO

	07-11-2004 07:32									#45
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

so... what wold be the best use of Lego of that BB stack next turn?

I think there are 5 options to them.
1. Attack our chain
2. bombard S fleet
3. bombard N fleet
4. attack N fleet
5. blockade Quanto.

Out of this, option 1 would probably be best in the long term, while option 4 is the best immediate action. option 3 might work, if they've got plenty of ships nearby (which I doubt, they built 1 sub last turn, why would they all of a sudden create 10 more)

Blockading won't work very well, as BBs are better in offense, and would be used defensively. Outright attacking our N fleet would not only destroy most of our escorts, but would also deprive us from softening the cities before attacking. So, I'm half expecting to see most of our, if not all our escort ships sunk when we open next turn. We might even miss a couple of transports too.

DeepO

	07-11-2004 07:36									#46
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

In case they go for our chain, do we chase them, or go for the cities first? Our bombardment is not that good with our DDs (it's a welcome extra, of course), we could chase the BBs, and let the M handle the cities alone. They can't run: every BB that attacks hub 2, will remain in range for our DDs. Otherwise, next turn our DDs will be toast anyway, as we can't really hide from them either (although there might be a possibility to keep us just out of range under protection of the coast)

DeepO

	07-11-2004 08:13									#47
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

They also have to consider GoW and maybe even ND and a token from RP. So they may not be in a position to focus on us exclusively.

But, I would agree that holding back the DD's would just be to lose them without return.

	07-11-2004 08:48									#48
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

If we end the turn right next to the coast, we would be safe from counter attack, but it holds a few problems. In case that piece of coast falls (we are bound to lose cities in the counterattack, as we don't have the defenders with us to keep all we can conquer), we would be open for art fire. If that happens, our DDs won't do us any good, they might not be damaged by BB, but can't return to full health evading the stack.

But, more importantly: Lego could continue towards Stormia, attacking hub 1 the turn after. Undisturbed, as we've got nothing on that side to counter them.

Maybe I'm wrong, but either those BBs attack us, and we try to clean up whatever is left (most of those would be damaged to 1/4 or 2/4), or we should go for them. We've successfully evaded them long enough, time for a tactic change.

And RP is one of the reasons we have to do this: they are coming unprotected. If they encounter that BB stack, literally all their forces would be destroyed, they wouldn't have a single unit left.

DeepO

	07-11-2004 08:53									#49
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

One more thing: we've got 1 TR ready to chain, but nothing more. In case the chain survives, it has to move back in turn 244, and can only be used again in 245. Or, we need another TR built in Hurricane in 244. We can do that, (MI is to finish there in 244 which can be switched easily), but wouldn't it be better if we reinforce Stormia for 1 turn? Of the 200 troops we have, 160 are, or will be in transport to Lego. 8 more defenders could really help at home.

Oh, of course, in case we see next turn in the battle report that hub 2 was destroyed, there is no need for further M. After EotS completes its build, we can switch all builds to defenders. MI / tanks if possible (not sure how the rubber situation is going to work out), infs / bombers otherwise.

DeepO

	07-11-2004 09:27									#50
	Got spare money?

If I were Lego I would blockade Quanto's Harbor (building a ship or two to add if possible, and bringing in the Subs too).

Draft in Sand and Tip (maybe Abilene or Dye... whichever is less useful). Disband Sand and Tip (maybe Abilene or Dye). Expose our spy.

That leaves 5 (4) cities to defend.
93 Infantry
32 Tanks
25 Cavalry
4 Horsemen

Put 21 Inf in each of the 3 cities our side. 15 Inf in each of the 2 cities on GoW's side. Spread the Tanks out amongst those cities. Seed more Tanks with the Cavalry and Horsemen.

They probably know if ND and RP have Marines or not so can concentrate on us and GoW entirely.

If they disband and blockade we probably can't punch through with our Marines and run a risk we couldn't even get into Quanto. Let's hope they do something else.

Otherwise I think we have to land on Quanto 21. It's a hill, fortress, and both our fleets can land units there. While we give up the rolling invasion, we don't lose so many Marines. With GoW landing too, I think it's a lost cause for Lego either way, but this would be their best bet.

-----------

I doubt they will disband cities. Blockading Quanto's harbor after bombardment is something I would expect them to do. I'd also expect them to keep at least a token defense in each city, even interior. Probably the Tanks and whatever Cavalry survive next turn's Tank seeding.

-----------

We shouldn't waste our DD's bombarding I think. Very small chance to hit enough to change things. If Quanto is heavily defended, no point in going for it. If it is very lightly defended (2-3 Inf) we can try to punch through the BBs. It would be a close thing, but killing those BBs is important, and our DDs will die if we don't anyways.

	07-11-2004 09:30									#51
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

I think the decision on the chain would need to wait until that turn. If we are nail and tooth on Lego, we may need 8 more MI over there ASAP.

As long as we can chose either way we'll be fine.

	07-11-2004 18:03									#52
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Blockading Quanto after bombardment might work, if they are lucky. They've got 6 BB in reach, and let's assume another 2 DD or so (we've been sinking a lot of subs and ships there, if they aren't freshly built, there won't be a lot of reinforcement present).

We, OTOH, have 10 4/4 DD, 2 3/4 DD and 1 2/4 DD right now (distract some 6 hp from the bombardment). It certainly wouldn't make them safe enough to have only a token defense in Quanto.

21 inf is frightening to attack. And assuming they somehow disrupt our chain, we only have 55 marines... but that still makes the odds better than 50% right? The 4 M for every I ratio we've been calculating with gives us 90% success, we just have to be a bit more lucky then

if we really can't penetrate their defenses and have to land, Sando 21 is the best bet, yes. I surely hope they leave our spy alone, so we can make a fact-based decision for this, instead of having to do it blindly. I'm not perfectly sure, but I thought that marines defend before tanks do, in which case we would have ~70 undamaged tanks to play with in 244. Not as good as being able to damage them without first taking a hit, but still decent.

DeepO

	07-11-2004 18:20									#53
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

oh, the backup troop chaining: Yes indeed, we will have to wait to see how it goes before deciding what to ship over. I just wanted to say that in case we read beforehand that the chain is gone, we do not have to build extra marines, and should cancel the build orders for something useful. I was planning on starting with the chaining in a special way from the first move onwards to make sure we can land both marines, and MI in Sando... whatever we need.

BTW, this extra chaining is going to require a lot of work. And if I say a lot, I mean a whole lot of work. We need 4 TR with M to do it right:

- TR1 lands its M. Some of those M will survive. 3 mp left.
- TR2 goes to the same spot. Instead of using those M directly, they are awaken, and loaded on TR1.
- From TR1, the M attack. Some will die, the places of which are filled with whatever is left on TR2. Normally, we should have a kill rate of at least 50%, so that TR2 is completely empty.
- TR2 goes 1 spot closer to T-1.
- TR3 goes to TR2. chains all M to TR2. TR3 4 mp left
- TR2 sails back to Sando, and the M attack. TR2 1 mp left
- TR3 sails back to T-1 spot. TR4 chains all M to TR3. TR3 3 mp left.
- TR3 sails to Sando, and attacks.
- TR4 is the chainer: whenever the fresh troops arrive from Stormia, it can load in here, and sail either to Sando, or into Sando.

This will leave none of our TRs exposed in case we can build a harbor on Sando 2.

Why is this so much work? That stack where the right marines have to be awaken is 130 units big... only in scrolling it you lose a minute or more. Not a pleasant thing to look forward too

DeepO

	07-11-2004 21:21									#54
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

You could move all the "other" Transports out of the way to open up the ones you are working with. 661, 616, and 166 are all routes to Sand that the ships can use.

	08-11-2004 03:14									#55
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

yes, but that assumes that we will get through with our marines. I would prefer to leave the option open that we are not able to break through their defenses, and need to transport our troops somewhere else (especially out of the way of whatever is left from the BB stack). It could mean 2 extra mp for those not-used tanks and stuff.

If we see no danger (e.g. because the BB are sunk), I will certainly move everything out of the way. Even then, it's a pain to do this kind of chaining.

DeepO