14-11-2004 03:10									#1
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I think in the latest turns we were concentrating too much on the military and not enough on the weapon that can win even the most difficult war: diplomacy!

It is true that this war was inevitable, and even talking with GS or GoW wouldn't have changed anything, but now that it has started, it is time to stop it

Basically, we would be able to defeat any of our opponents, but not 2 or 3 at once. So we have to break this alliance. This must be our primary goal.

In a way we already have ND on our side: they didn't attack us, they don't want us completely destroyed and they don't want an even more powerful GoW. There are only 2 problems:
1. they are weak, therefor they are not really able to help us militarily
2. they would help us only when the situation becomes desperate for us, which is too late.
At this point I don't think that ND wants to help GoW and GS even more, but they don't really have a chance to do otherwise. They fear a miltary intervention against them.
However, we should try to seek ways of cooperation that can't be detected by GS and GoW, yet it'd help ND and us. More about this in the ND diplo thread.

So we have to focus on someone else. We must break the GS - GoW alliance. For this, we need to pick one of our enemies, the most vulnerable one and convince it that there are better ways than war to achieve victory.

IMO it is quite obvious that this team is GS. Why is that? Let's analyze a bit their situation.
No military victory is possible in this game, and a diplo win has even less chances. Their only chance to win is the space race. In order to achieve this, they need 3 things. We can call these the GS objectives:
O1. technology power: they already have this one
O2. relatively weak opponents, which means from their PoV: no other team capable of building the spaceship before them and no other team being capable to threaten them militarily, should they be close to the spaceship win.
O3. resources: their continent is small, and they may very well lack one of the two resources needed for the spaceship: aluminium and uranium.

What is GS seeking with this war? Well, they are trying to achieve point 2. and maybe point. 3 , though the latest may be quite difficult to achieve. I think they are hoping to cripple us and don't really believe in a total military occupation of Legos.

There is one crucial thing: the cost of the war. GS is obviously prepared to pay a price, but how big? That's the question.
We have to convince GS that:
1. the price will be too high compared with the results if they choose to continue the war, and
2. they can obtain more or the same, with a lesser price

All right. How do we do that? Well, here comes the diplomacy Up until here, it was only an analysis. We will have to use true facts and half-true arguments, in order to make them think what we want them to think.

1. Argument: we don't have enough army to defend both coasts, therefor we will concentrate on only one, turtling on the other one, hoping to rezist until we defeat the first invador and proceed to attack the second one. Now, willingly or not, GS is the team we will attack with all we have as soon as they land (and even before ) This is for many reasons: they have the bigger army, they don't have bombers, and so on. This will have the following possible outcome: the GS army will be destroyed, while GoW has a good shot to become even more powerful, becoming a threat to GS and ND.
2. Argument: we will be weakened anyway, we are technologically behind, so O2 will be achieved. If they continue the war, O2 will be again in danger, because GoW will become too powerful
Argument: we can offer the resources needed to build the spaceship. This latest argument is maybe the strongest and most dangereous one, as it can grant victory to GS. Should our attack on the GS armada go well, we may drop this.

That's pretty much it. I'm sure we can refine this, so as soon as GS will begin having heavy losses and we will begin losing the war on the east coast (seems very possible atm), I think GS will be ready to talk.

Last edited by Tiberius on 14-11-2004 at 03:18

	14-11-2004 03:13									#2
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This was posted only to avoid Vondrack saying that he is the only one writing long posts j/k

Waiting for comments and ideas. We really need any ideas on how to refine our arguments and convince GS ! Com'on, it's important and no number crunching is involved

	14-11-2004 03:36									#3
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Let me just briefly add that I actually feel ashamed for how much I have been neglecting diplomacy lately. If it was not for Tibi coming up with this idea, I would still be scratching my head, shuffling infantries back and forth... completely ignorant of non-military options.

As we've been chatting with Tibi about the idea some, there is little I can add ATM, but generally, I believe this idea is very much worth further refining and discussion.

If the war goes bad, it can save us from a total defeat.
If the war goes so-so, it can tip the balance in our favour.
If the war goes well, this could make it go even better.

We have to think hard about what valuables we could offer to GS without actually compromising our own chances to win a spacerace too much.

	14-11-2004 04:59									#4
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Looks good. Only problem I see with this is that GS may have honor issues with backing out. We don't know what sort of deal they've signed.

I'm also not sure what we can give them out of this without handing them a space race victory. Frankly, I'd rather go down fighting than end up subserviant to the victory of a team that attacked us.

	14-11-2004 06:55									#5
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I still think ND should attack GOW

	14-11-2004 12:22									#6
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It's still just wishful thinking.

	14-11-2004 15:49									#7
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quote: Originally posted by redstar1 I still think ND should attack GOW

That's the next step after we convince GS to slow down and we can concentrate on GoW

	14-11-2004 16:17									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Kloreep Looks good. Only problem I see with this is that GS may have honor issues with backing out. We don't know what sort of deal they've signed.

True, this might be a problem. However, if we make GS to negociate, I'm sure we will find a formula which would save GS's honour and us in the same time

quote: I'm also not sure what we can give them out of this without handing them a space race victory. Frankly, I'd rather go down fighting than end up subserviant to the victory of a team that attacked us.

Yeah, like I said it depends on what they want to achieve with this war. This is something we want to (and we have to) find out during the negotiations If they started the war only to weaken us, then maybe we can convince them based purely on geo-political arguments. If they are hoping in a complete occupation of Legos to get our resources, well...they will see in one or two turns that this is not possible, and also we will make it very clear in our talks that we won't let them do this. Destroying half of their settlers is already a blow to this idea.
So, let's keep the resources thing as a last resort argument, or try to brainstorm some way in which we could give them what they need without losing the game. We can ask for tech cooperation in exchange, for example, or something like this.

What we need right now is to survive this war, while still being able to have a shot to victory. At this point I think that GS, GoW and Lego have aprox. the same chances to win the game, with ND slightly behind. Should they beat us, GS, GoW and ND will jump to each other's throat, to avoid the other one winning. We have to make this happen earlier We have to make them rethink their strategies.

The biggest problem I can imagine is if GS and GoW have some sort of agreement to divide Lego and ND between them, as in: GS get's Legos and GoW gets ND. That would be deadly. Doesn't seem very possible, though, and regardless we will have to try our chances.

	15-11-2004 14:21									#9
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if want to tip the balance in our favour, could we consider giving ND Motorized Transport? The way I see the best way to assist them is to allow them to arm as fast as possible, the only thing holding them back is lack of tanks. If we eventually maage to get to the point where we ourselves can lauch an invaison we could end up with the perfect launch point but we need to have closer relations with ND bassuming the they want us as friends.

Not sure if this still the case but is there any other way we provide a small amount of econoimc assistance to them without sacrificing our defence capablities eg gold to get them upgrading?

	15-11-2004 15:24									#10
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ND already have Motorized Transportation.

	15-11-2004 16:29									#11
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well thats okay then

	10-12-2004 13:17									#12
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I believe the time is coming that we should approach GS. My little chit-chat with DeepO has revealed quite a bit of information we were unaware of, I'd say. A lot of it actually supports Tibi's diplo plan, methinks.

Perhaps we might try to cooperate a bit?

	10-12-2004 13:43									#13
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Well, what DeepO said "This very well might be our final moment, and we decided to make it a glorious one. Now if only you'd like to cooperate a little... " must be seen in the bigger picture, I believe.

I could be wrong, but I think what he really meant was: "This very well might be our final moment, ... Now if only you'd like to cooperate a little to make it a glorious one"

Do you see the difference? I think they won't stop until we are crippled/destroyed, their army is destroyed OR they won't see a chance to win.

But we can try to discuss. It never hurts. I am deeply pessimistic about the outcome, however

	10-12-2004 13:51									#14
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I believe they are like a desperate samurai now, not really hoping to win but rather hoping to die in glory. Which is very bad for us.

Obviously they still have some hope; probably some of our cities, and our resources. But I'm afraid at this point they are prepared to fight till the bitter end.

I'm afraid we should really give them a glitter of hope for winning the game to make them truely negotiate.
If they are trying to win the spacerace, the only thing they might be interested in are the resources... and how can we give them the resources without losing the game???

	10-12-2004 14:10									#15
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Well... if they really are the fourth, truly minor power (try going back and loook at the production figures we determined!), then by giving them the resources need not necessarily equal to losing the game - it would only equal to giving them a chance.

Much depends on the outcome of their attack on Abilene. I take it for granted GS attacked it - but from DeepO's recent posts, I am hoping they did not take it... so it will be about losses. We might have suffered losses too high to allow holding our ground there. GS might have suffered losses too high to allow further military operations there... or it can be a stalemate.

We shall see soon, I believe.

DeepO's note on our "unpredictability" sounded also much better than his line about how we would not like their battle report...

But I readily admit I feel butterflies in my stomach and can't wait to see GS' battle report. And at the same time, am kind of afraid seeing it...

	10-12-2004 14:36									#16
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lol. me too

If there is a stalemate or too many losses on both sides, we may try to negotiate

	10-12-2004 15:48									#17
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How about if we give GS resources on Bob ?? At this point it wouldn't matter for us of GS would gain land on Bob. It is too late for them to develope it, but it'd grant them much needed resources (maybe even some luxuries). How about that?

We would need to support them strongly however. They wouldn't accept to have us only as spectators, methinks.

	10-12-2004 16:02									#18
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I was thinking of exactly the same... if we can be considered #1 and they really are #4 (which I now believe), #1+#4 against #2+#3 alliances would make sense. Better sense than #1 vs. #2+#4 with #3 aside. And actually, by this time, we are a bit more like #2 than #1.

We would agree to keep fighting GoW, even if it meant leaving our shores and going on an offensive, fight ND, should it become necessary - basically... hmmm... yes... we would offer GS an alliance.

We would agree to not only not oppose their expansion onto Bob, but even perhaps help them expand there - the resource/luxury idea is excellent.

I believe this would be the ticket. It's something they could trust, it's something that would allow them to still affect their fate, it's something that would still keep them in the race.

The only problem may be that GS could and probably will be reluctant to basically betray GoW... though, come to think of it... this is really a crazy idea... but what if GoW made the mistake deliberately? Kept (most of) their tanks... allowed us to use our infantries against GS by leaving the marines stuck at the invasion beach... By indirectly telling us: there will be no seaborne attack by GoW whis turn, they actually made sure, or at least likely, that GS would suffer a major defeat trying to take Abilene...

Yeah, it's crazy, but it's about as crazy as what GoW did...

	10-12-2004 19:42									#19
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I think we'll have to wait and see the battle reports for this turn. If GS feels they've gained an advantage somehow, they will be almost 100% unlikely to even consider changing course. However, if we can slap them down again, they will probably be more open to diplomacy. GoW, however, is in this for the long haul, I think.

	10-12-2004 19:55									#20
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Agreed. GoW is actually in the best position to win the game now, I believe.

	10-12-2004 20:03									#21
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quote: Originally posted by vondrack Agreed. GoW is actually in the best position to win the game now, I believe.

Which is exactly what we have to tell to GS

	10-12-2004 21:21									#22
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You know, ND is going to have to do something soon. I really can't imagine they are just going to sit around and watch 3 other teams put themselves in position to win the game, possibly. And now that MZ has said GoW put no production into defense, that makes it all the more tempting for them

	11-12-2004 04:31									#23
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ND is in a position to win the game through space race.

They may also be in a good position militarily if we destroy the GoW and GS invasion forces, which isn't in our power to do at the moment.