18-12-2004 03:38									#1
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Suffering from PTWDG-cold turkey, I started a SP game again a couple of days ago, and cam to a surprizing conclusion. The situation was that I built the GLib on a continent with 4 other teams (emperor, large map, I'm Persian, and one of the others was Greek), and was concentrating on having no early war, but outbuild the AIs with RCP and a couple of pumps. All is going well.

At a certain moment, I'm prebuilding Leo, in the hope of getting invention in time from the GLib, when some other team (not on my continent) builds Sun Tsu. So... I panick a little. 4 turns of research needed, to lose over 600 shields in a prebuild... and knowing that the Greeks have the tech I need, but as none of the other teams they are in contact with are close, it will take probably more than 4 turns before I get the tech for free. So, I look around, and with the huge amount of cash, I decide to steal the tech from the Greeks.

Great was my suprise, when I noticed that the cost of stealing the tech was low, compared to the beaker cost (possibly because the other civs, not on my continent were advanced, I don't know that). So I stole the tech, and built Leo's. A little later, I got Theology, and built Sistine. Bach and Copernicus followed. (GA fuelled). I was prebuilding Smith's, when I noticed the Greeks starting Copernicus (also half prebuilding that one, with a bank or something like that), and I tried to trade for it, but found out the cost of stealing the tech was something like half the trading price... which was lower than the current beaker cost. I haven't played any further, but it's obvious that for as long as I can, I'm going to steal stuff like crazy.

Strange thing... I never really looked at stealing techs as a valid way of getting ahead in tech. And I thought about this game too. It seems that, even if we maybe can't avoid going to war, nobody really believes we can win militarily. It's either UN or SS. Both of these require techs. Both requires a certain amount of stealth. So, my question: aren't we forgetting there is another way of getting techs from other teams? Sure, it may cost, it may even cost a lot, but if failed espionage actions aren't announced to the other teams, we might get a chance here to stealthy weazel our way to e.g. the SS. Let's say we are 2 techs behind, we might very well start on the last tech to be completed in e.g. 5 turns, while stealing the one tech in the 4th turn. Other teams will think they are safe for at least 3 more turns after we left Earth behind.

I'm not saying that we should do it like that, but perhaps we're forgetting the power of espionage here. It may even cost more, but it keeps our intentions hidden... that could become very powerful.

DeepO

PS: the CFC thread on espionage again

	18-12-2004 03:48									#2
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the problem is, the longer this goes, the fewer parties we can steal from.

Adn we have to hope that others take other research tracks.

The most useful is stealing Vox's free tech, IMHO.

	18-12-2004 04:33									#3
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I seem to recall that vxma1 has had some experience with stelaing techs (more than me, anyway!)... I'm sure he'll check in shortly.

Good thinking, btw...

But then we'll be accused of winning bia 'game mechanics'.

	18-12-2004 06:43									#4
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel Adn we have to hope that others take other research tracks. The most useful is stealing Vox's free tech, IMHO.

Sleepy, you're not getting my point, so I must have expressed myself not clearly enough.

Vox's free tech is the least useful of all. The whole point of stealing techs is to get either a tech which its owner refuses to trade to us, or to gain a critical tech stealthy. Vox' free tech is in that respect only of use to us, if it is Fission... but we can't win by UN unless Vox is with us. If they are with us, we don't need to steal it, they can give it to us.

For SS, Vox' tech is too early.

The other option, that they might not want to hand it over to us willingly, can only be exploited if they also don't want to hand it over to one other party (e.g. GoW), and we could strike a deal to trade it to that other party. I don't see that happening.

This is more a tactic, I think, which could lead to a key tech in the SS race. The way I understand the cost formula, the cost increases when the game progresses. It may very well cost more than the beaker cost to steal a tech this late. However, it would be stealthy... which interests me most. If no-one suspects what we are doing, it will be very hard to stop us either.

DeepO

	18-12-2004 07:52									#5
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All of my stealing has been done at Sid and hence C3C. I never needed to steal, that I can remember in PTW.

I can say at sid, stealing is the way to go, run with one scientist and save cash to steal. It is shocking how often it works even with immediate, rather than the other two choices.

Since we are going to be neck and neck in research, we probbaly will not have many chances to steal. Modern techs going to be four digits in cost.

So I suspect we will seldom have that much laying around. The other thing is, I often did not care if I got caught, but we probably will care.

It is something we can do in a pinch and for only one or two techs we are missing. Most likely we will be trading. If not, then war is probably coming.

	18-12-2004 16:16									#6
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by vmxa1 Since we are going to be neck and neck in research, we probbaly will not have many chances to steal. Modern techs going to be four digits in cost.

That's alright. In my SP game, techs were also 4 digits worth... but still half the beaker cost. Modern age techs also have a high beaker cost.

quote: So I suspect we will seldom have that much laying around. The other thing is, I often did not care if I got caught, but we probably will care.[/]q The thing is: do failed espionage missions show up for the other teams? If they don't, we can do this risk free. [q]It is something we can do in a pinch and for only one or two techs we are missing. Most likely we will be trading. If not, then war is probably coming.

Exactly. 2 uses: stealth (SS), or when they don't want to trade. Assume we do not get the tech for MAs... how are we going to survive? we only will have one option, which is to steal...

DeepO

	18-12-2004 18:22									#7
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The best time to steal a tech is when there is a sharp increase in beaker cost of tech, like at the start of the IA.

Tech stealing works on a wierd forumla, it's a certain amount plus a certain amount for each additional tech someone researches, the interesting thing being that it doesn't matter where you stand with regard to tech or which techs you can steal, the cost of stealing will still increase with every tech the team researches, ie. stealing Literature will cost alot more if you do it from a team whose in the Med age than from a team whose in the AA. Which is what allows you to keep track of how far ahead in tech a team gets and let's you keep tabs on when each nation completes a new tech as the cost to steal will increase by another increment irrespective of how you stand in tech.

Also you can always choose which tech to take, as long as you have the pre-requisites and the other team doesn't get a message telling them if your steal fails.

The forumla for stealing is a bit weird, I think it's got something to do with distance to capital, the increments don't seem to have anything to do with the beaker cost of the tech researched. They just seem to be standard increases as techs are researched, which is why it becomes profitable to steal at times when techs suddenly start costing more beakers, iirc Atomic Theory, Steam Power and Nationalism are typically the most cost effective techs to steal. Especially Atomic Theory which can only be a few techs into the IA, so only slightly more expensive to steal than say Magnetism but costs about 3 times more to research than the late MA techs.

The best thing about stealing is that you don't have to agree any no trade on agreements, so you can steal and sell. You only need an embassy to steal and you can steal from your friends without them having a clue.

	18-12-2004 19:53									#8
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OPD, that clears up the cost formula a bit yes. BTW, you can find the exact thing in the thread I linked to, however not everything is explained, and I didn't find time yet to fully analyze it (will get to there later).

the stealing cost increase was something we should have kept a better eye on, although so far we were at most one tech behind (and so could check in other ways where the rest was).

so... expensive techs (for their era) are more cost efficitive to steal... but still I'm more thinking on this as a stealth technique, not a thing to avoid doing research.

OPD, you mention something about the other team getting a message when stealing fails. Do you know anything about this? It seems it's a mystery to all here... before we could try this (and before we start planting spies with Vox, GoW or ND), we should know for certain.

DeepO

	18-12-2004 21:00									#9
	Got spare money?

In PBEM the other team does not get a message if the steal fails.

It's probably not cost effective to steal even without considering the possible failure.

The stealth idea sounds really cool though!!
Just as an example if we had all the SS techs except for say Ecology and Synthetic Fibres, and GoW or another team had them. We could be considered to be at least 8 turns away from a SS launch but then some pre-builds and tech steals could win the game. The steal tech option can even be used to keep tabs on when another team could have finished the tech of sythetic fibres......

Thinking about it now, if this game is going to be won by SS, then it's going to come down to which team is prepared to be the most devious and sneaky.

Also remember you don't need a spy to steal tech!!!! an embassy is enough aslong as you're not at war. Although spy does make it more likely to succed.

This bit from the thread is quite interesting

Chance of succeding in %:
Immidiate Carefully Safely
Embassy 32 44 52
Regular spy 48 60 68
Veteran spy 56 68 76

Unless my stats are off this means trying to steal immediately twice is more likely to succed than stealing safely once (safely costs X2 the cost of immediately) not to mention the fact that if you succed first time you don't have to pay second time.

Also, I don't remember very well but does communism give you vet spys?

	18-12-2004 21:18									#10
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yeah, communism gives you vets.

Don't be fooled by the percentages, that was my idea as well at first. However, if you fail, there is a chance your spy is exposed...if he is not detected, you have 80% chance of being sucessful. So if you only do immediates, there is a larger chance your spy is exposed. And if exposed, you can't plant a new one in the same turn, you have to wait at least 1 turn (at 15% odds)

No messages mean spies everywhere asap... GoW we need to wait for 2 or 3 turns if we don't want to waste too much gold, but Vox and ND I would try to plant one next turn.

DeepO

	18-12-2004 21:20									#11
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quote: Originally posted by OPD Thinking about it now, if this game is going to be won by SS, then it's going to come down to which team is prepared to be the most devious and sneaky.

Yes. Building everything from Apollo to lounge in one turn will be part of it, but that might not be enough. Stealing techs might get us that bit further.

DeepO

	18-12-2004 22:10									#12
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Yeah I see what you mean about safety

The only possible scenario where it may not be best to go for safely would be where due to the amount of gold you have, the options are either one safe steal or one careful and one immediate steal. The great thing about espionage is that it just comes down to cold probability rather than unexpected troop movements and such.

quote: Yes. Building everything from Apollo to lounge in one turn will be part of it, but that might not be enough. Stealing techs might get us that bit further.

Hmmm, perhaps Deepo is starting to formulate a serious game winning plan....

An outlandish whole spaceship building, tech stealing 1 turn game winning manouver would be very cool.

	18-12-2004 23:05									#13
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I would expect that MZ will not be foolish enough to trust that we are not lauch capable, because we are missing a tech or two.

They will act on the premise that we will get them timed with prebuilds, I know we will be thinking that way. So the question is what and when to act.

I would not be shocked to see ND go down without a fight, MZ will not. Once the Ss is a danger, he will have to act, if he can.

	19-12-2004 17:54									#14
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vmxa, it's exactly that... everybody will suspect something is about to happen, however we might trick them in thinking that we need a couple more turns. Plus, around that time, they might be so involved in their own timed SS build, that maybe they don't see the danger on our side so clearly.

And ND does not end this game quietly, I don't beleive that. They were very predictable in starting a war at the exact moment they could use Ansars, too.

DeepO

	19-12-2004 18:51									#15
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quote: Originally posted by OPD Hmmm, perhaps Deepo is starting to formulate a serious game winning plan.... An outlandish whole spaceship building, tech stealing 1 turn game winning manouver would be very cool.

Can this idea be worked into a Plan A: UN, Plan B : SS.