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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:32
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Krugman once again:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/21/o...l?oref=login&hp
quote:
The Free Lunch Bunch
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: January 21, 2005
Did they believe they would be welcomed as liberators? Administration plans to privatize Social Security have clearly run into unexpected opposition. Even Republicans are balking; Representative Bill Thomas says that the initial Bush plan will soon be a "dead horse."
That may be overstating it, but for privatizers the worst is yet to come. If people are rightly skeptical about claims that Social Security faces an imminent crisis, just wait until they start looking closely at the supposed solution.
President Bush is like a financial adviser who tells you that at the rate you're going, you won't be able to afford retirement - but that you shouldn't do anything mundane like trying to save more. Instead, you should take out a huge loan, put the money in a mutual fund run by his friends (with management fees to be determined later) and place your faith in capital gains.
That, once you cut through all the fine phrases about an "ownership society," is how the Bush privatization plan works. Payroll taxes would be diverted into private accounts, forcing the government to borrow to replace the lost revenue. The government would make up for this borrowing by reducing future benefits; yet workers would supposedly end up better off, in spite of reduced benefits, through the returns on their accounts.
The whole scheme ignores the most basic principle of economics: there is no free lunch.
There are several ways to explain why this particular lunch isn't free, but the clearest comes from Michael Kinsley, editorial and opinion editor of The Los Angeles Times. He points out that the math of Bush-style privatization works only if you assume both that stocks are a much better investment than government bonds and that somebody out there in the private sector will nonetheless sell those private accounts lots of stocks while buying lots of government bonds.
So privatizers are in effect asserting that politicians are smart - they know that stocks are a much better investment than bonds - while private investors are stupid, and will swap their valuable stocks for much less valuable government bonds. Isn't such an assertion very peculiar coming from people who claim to trust markets?
When I ask privatizers that question, I get two responses.
One is that the diversion of revenue into private accounts doesn't have to lead to government borrowing, that the money can come from, um, someplace else. Of course, many schemes look good if you assume that they will be subsidized with large sums shipped in from an undisclosed location.
Alternatively, they point out that stocks on average were a very good investment over the last several decades. But remember the disclaimer that mutual funds are obliged to include in their ads: "past performance is no guarantee of future results."
Fifty years ago most people, remembering 1929, were afraid of the stock market. As a result, those who did buy stocks got to buy them cheap: on average, the value of a company's stock was only about 13 times that company's profits. Because stocks were cheap, they yielded high returns in dividends and capital gains.
But high returns always get competed away, once people know about them: stocks are no longer cheap. Today, the value of a typical company's stock is more than 20 times its profits. The more you pay for an asset, the lower the rate of return you can expect to earn. That's why even Jeremy Siegel, whose "Stocks for the Long Run" is often cited by those who favor stocks over bonds, has conceded that "returns on stocks over bonds won't be as large as in the past."
But a very high return on stocks over bonds is essential in privatization schemes; otherwise private accounts created with borrowed money won't earn enough to compensate for their risks. And if we take into account realistic estimates of the fees that mutual funds will charge - remember, in Britain those fees reduce workers' nest eggs by 20 to 30 percent - privatization turns into a lose-lose proposition.
Sometimes I do find myself puzzled: why don't privatizers understand that their schemes rest on the peculiar belief that there is a giant free lunch there for the taking? But then I remember what Upton Sinclair wrote: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it." |
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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:32
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The Krugman strikes again. I mean, its so freaking easy, and yet people still try to sell us this crap about private accounts. Its beyond superficial!
quote:
Many Unhappy Returns
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: February 1, 2005
The fight over Social Security is, above all, about what kind of society we want to have. But it's also about numbers. And the numbers the privatizers use just don't add up.
Let me inflict some of those numbers on you. Sorry, but this is important.
Schemes for Social Security privatization, like the one described in the 2004 Economic Report of the President, invariably assume that investing in stocks will yield a high annual rate of return, 6.5 or 7 percent after inflation, for at least the next 75 years. Without that assumption, these schemes can't deliver on their promises. Yet a rate of return that high is mathematically impossible unless the economy grows much faster than anyone is now expecting.
To explain why, I need to talk about stock returns. The yield on a stock comes from two components: cash that the company pays out in the form of dividends and stock buybacks, and capital gains. Right now, if dividends and buybacks were the whole story, the rate of return on stocks would be only 3 percent.
To get a 6.5 percent rate of return, you need capital gains: if dividends yield 3 percent, stock prices have to rise 3.5 percent per year after inflation. That doesn't sound too unreasonable if you're thinking only a few years ahead.
But privatizers need that high rate of return for 75 years or more. And the economic assumptions underlying most projections for Social Security make that impossible.
The Social Security projections that say the trust fund will be exhausted by 2042 assume that economic growth will slow as baby boomers leave the work force. The actuaries predict that economic growth, which averaged 3.4 percent per year over the last 75 years, will average only 1.9 percent over the next 75 years.
In the long run, profits grow at the same rate as the economy. So to get that 6.5 percent rate of return, stock prices would have to keep rising faster than profits, decade after decade.
The price-earnings ratio - the value of a company's stock, divided by its profits - is widely used to assess whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued. Historically, that ratio averaged about 14. Today it's about 20. Where would it have to go to yield a 6.5 percent rate of return?
I asked Dean Baker, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, to help me out with that calculation (there are some technical details I won't get into). Here's what we found: by 2050, the price-earnings ratio would have to rise to about 70. By 2060, it would have to be more than 100.
In other words, to believe in a privatization-friendly rate of return, you have to believe that half a century from now, the average stock will be priced like technology stocks at the height of the Internet bubble - and that stock prices will nonetheless keep on rising.
Social Security privatizers usually defend their bullishness by saying that stock investors earned high returns in the past. But stocks are much more expensive than they used to be, relative to corporate profits; that means lower dividends per dollar of share value. And economic growth is expected to be slower.
Which brings us to the privatizers' Catch-22.
They can rescue their happy vision for stock returns by claiming that the Social Security actuaries are vastly underestimating future economic growth. But in that case, we don't need to worry about Social Security's future: if the economy grows fast enough to generate a rate of return that makes privatization work, it will also yield a bonanza of payroll tax revenue that will keep the current system sound for generations to come.
Alternatively, privatizers can unhappily admit that future stock returns will be much lower than they have been claiming. But without those high returns, the arithmetic of their schemes collapses.
It really is that stark: any growth projection that would permit the stock returns the privatizers need to make their schemes work would put Social Security solidly in the black.
And I suspect that at least some privatizers know that. Mr. Baker has devised a test he calls "no economist left behind": he challenges economists to make a projection of economic growth, dividends and capital gains that will yield a 6.5 percent rate of return over 75 years. Not one economist who supports privatization has been willing to take the test.
But the offer still stands. Ladies and gentlemen, would you care to explain your position? |
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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:32
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quote:
Originally posted by Ming
OK... even if you believe the arguments that SS will stay solvent with no changes (and the arguments are strong in that direction), the pay out at the end still sucks. If it's all you have, you will be living at the poverty level. OH JOY... be still my beating heart  |
Actually, IF that is all you have at the end, obviously without SS you most likely would have had nothing at all, so in the end, you are better off thanks to SS than without it. Which is realy the point.
quote:
Since I started work, I've been contributing to a retirement fund. I've put in less money each year than I get taxed for SS. When I retire, that money will actually fund my retirement. The checks I get from SS will be chump change |
Good for you-and it would be great if every single person did this. BUt they won't, so SS provides a basic cushion that helps avoid extreme poverty amongst the elderly.
So its great and all Ming that you plan to be well of, but that has 0 to do with the discussion at hand, which is how to secure a program so that those that either don;t have anything to put in a retirement account, or will spend it all throught life supporting our consumption economy will not be without anything at the end of their working years.
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Oerdin
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of Internet Music.
Sep 2001
time: 21:32
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
I like how publication after publication is taking the privitizers to task, but I still fear that democrats will surrender to the "ownership society" rhetoric and embark on some fooolish ideology that might cost of trillions. |
Businessweek seemed to be doubters Bush could force through his privatization scheme. Apparently, Democrats aren't playing ball and the Republicans don't want to jump off the cliff unless they have the cover of this being bipartisan. Other wise when the deficits explode (as planned by the privatizers) then Democrats can blame Republicans. Also deficit hawks in the Republican party refuse to alow more spend since Bush has already run up the biggest deficit in the history of the world while the anti-tax Republicans are refusing to increase taxes to cover the truly massive costs of destroying Social Security.
If you can't borrow and you can't increase taxes the only option is to cut, but, Bush and the Republicans don't want to cut popular programs because then they'll get slaughtered in the next election. Ergo Bush isn't likely to get his plan approved.
Last edited by Oerdin on 02-02-2005 at 08:45
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18-01-2005 12:19
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