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shawnmmcc
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After some comments in the Tsunami thread - part 2, I decided to do a little research. The discussion had gotten into natural disasters of the catastrophic worldwide type, including Nuclear War and major volcanic events (large asteroid strikes also would fall into this).
We started discussing the Nuclear Autumn hypothesis, with the resulting loss in one or two crop harvests world-wide. One person stated that it wouldn't kill too many people (the starvation aspect), so I wondered. I found a couple of sites.
What it boils down to is that most of the world population would starve. I couldn't find figures for the actual grain reserves in the US and the EU, to try and figure how well they would hold up. Note that distributing food also takes fuel, so that in the event of a catastrophe even having enough food does not mean people do not starve. However, the converse is not true - If you have enough fuel for food distribution, but not enough food, starvation will ensue.
Any poster with info on the US and EU grain reserves (circa 2004/5) please post. Note that the minimum recommended intake of grain is 450 grams per person (from a site studying starvation in North Korea).
http://216.198.243.200/passage11/Strategy/Population.htm
quote:
Experts say that recent good weather in almost all the main growing regions, in contrast to Britain where August rain has devastated crops, has boosted the bumper harvest even further. But even optimistic estimates do not expect any recovery of stocks - now at their lowest level ever, well below the 70 days' supply needed for world food security. |
Another couple of interesting sites.
www.survivalplus.com/foods/page0004.html
forests.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=35175
A site saying there has been recovery, but not by how much.
www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2004/51844
Plus some hard science analysis about energy and food production, from several years ago. Definite bias in the first site as to conclusions, it assumes oil only, note that neither the nuclear option nor renewable energy is not discussed (I suspect that opposition to nukes will decrease once fuel prices are high enough).
dieoff.org/page65.htm
www.fb.org/news/fbn/00/07_31/html/high.html
Related info on worldwide food production. 41 page PDF.
ers.usda.gov/publications/waob041/waob20041f.pdf
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shawnmmcc
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As a hunter and reloader (ex-Federal Firearms License, they increased the fees too much for serious hobbyists) the gun to have is a black powder rifle, or some of the old large cartridge winchesters, like the .41 winchester that started off as a blackpowder cartridge (I could have the wrong one, I'm doing this from memory). Scrap lead will be available for extended periods of time, and you can always convert to a flint or even matchlock. That, or a crossbow - regular bows are nice but take substantially more training.
The good thing is that in the continental US we will have abundent deer, and if you have a general civil breakdown, abundant dogs. Plus pidgeons, morning doves, and Canada geese. The biggest problem will be that people will need to relearn a series of life skills that are dwindling, so the losses would not be small. Definitely get a the old Foxfire series if you think something like that could happen. I recieved a set from my grandmother several years ago, and they are very interesting.
However, I'm still interested in the stockpiles of grain in various food producing countries, including Australia and Canada. If the timing is wrong, and with the general drift towards just-in-time delivery of goods, exactly how much food would the US have stockpiled let's say in July, before most of the grain harvest? Larger net food importing countries would suffer horrendous losses, including much of Africa and Asia. I'm not too sure on Central and South America.
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:29
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quote:
Originally posted by Chemical Ollie
How do you grow food in a volcano winter? It may be dark and cold, 24 hours a day for 2-3 years. |
this to be worse than 1816, when the eruption of Tambura caused the "year with no summer"? IIUC harvests in New England, upstate NY, and eastern Canada were wiped out (and I assume in northern europe as well) but harvests still came in the mid atlantic and southern states, and there was no famine in either North America or northwestern Europe (edit - except in Ireland) (though there WERE riots in France).
Last edited by lord of the mark on 01-02-2005 at 23:18
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Flubber
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With a view of the Rockies
Aug 2000
time: 22:29
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If natural gas and electricity for heating remained available, people could grow some stuff inside-- it wouldn't be much but added to the meat kill-off, it should be ok.
a 36 degree farenheit drop would wipe out canadian agriculture but the mid- southern US might be viable--
I could see a big market for fish ( the ocean temperature hardly changes and should not change quickly so it might be able to provide a major food source in the years until the temperature change was felt
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01-02-2005 12:57
I was just remined of one of the Mad Max films - i'd be the guy who gets his hard won produce stolen by thugs! damnit 
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