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snoopy369
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Of the Peanuts Gallery
Apr 2004
time: 23:26
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quote:
Originally posted by Aqualung71
Snoopy, your reasoning is tantamount to what we Australians call a gerrymander, in political terms.
If you offer enough alternatives, there is no way any alternative will ever reach a majority. You have no way of knowing whether those who voted for 2 or 1 turns would prefer 3 or 5. To do it properly, you should employ a "2 party preferred" system, or what you would call a "run-off".
Failing that, there is no argument that can logically be used to claim that a result that achieved 4 votes is more popular than a result that achieved 9 votes. Your invention of this so-called "graduated" system of interpreting the voting, basically amounts to selecting the answer you want to achieve and finding a ballot-counting methodology that gives the selected answer. 
Edit: And another point - your methodology assumes that the lower numbers are more popular, which statistically is invalid (in my humble opinion). Why not start at the other end? |
Hmm. The intent is to achieve the lowest amount of 'extra' turns that still gives enough time to be organized. I think the voting schema achieves that perfectly.
Actually, it is biased towards the middle numbers, not the lower ones (discussed below). That is intentional. As many people have stated, the fewer turns we delay the better, for the sake of the game - taking a month to do four gameturns is way too long at this stage of the game. OTOH, some people think we need longer to allow for organization of teams. To each his own; this is 'biased' towards a compromise, not towards either side.
This does take into account the majority viewpoint, however. It assumes, quite reasonably, that if I took every single option below the option selected out, that all of the people who had voted for those options taken out would now vote for the lowest remaining option - the one chosen. I could do the same from the high end, in fact, and achieve the same result, assuming there's not randomly a break at 50% exactly (between 2 votes). That's the bias towards lower numbers - only a very small one, really.
IE if I gave everyone the options of 3 or 5 turns and that was it, it is likely (very likely) that a majority of people would select 3 based on the previous voting.
In fact, Lung, the fact that I broke down the 'smaller' turns and didn't break down the 'larger' turns means that the 'larger' turns will tend to indeed have more votes individually (I didn't graduate the turns all the way - ie i didn't have 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10). That was a good part of the reason I wasn't allowing a simple plurality to win. 5 was nearly always going to win (if even 30% of people think >3 is a good idea), getting votes from people who wanted 4 as well as 6,7, and maybe 8. 
Graduated polls are a very reasonable solution iff there is a graduatable question, like this one, and the voters understand the system before voting. It gives you the effect of a runoff without having a runoff.
Of course it also gives a compromise! In this case, for example, 2 and 5 were the primary vote getters (at one point anywho, I forget the final result). 2 probably would have beaten 5, particularly given the general sense after turn 1 was played by people who played it, but who knows? Anyway, 3 (also not a low vote getter) wins in part because it's a compromise. Had 1 and 3 been the primary vote getters, 2 probably would have won.
Admittedly this makes it less likely that the far extremes will win - but that's not necessarily a bad thing in a compromise situation anyway (where both extremes are the preferred solution).
Of course, if the US used these things for presidential elections, can you imagine who'd be president right now ... 
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10-02-2005 10:54
that goes on, is very useful. It helps identify in an instant to all where the game is, without having to hunt back through a thread such as this. 
shark like creature known as Uno anywhere near, net alone with any authority within our forum 
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