08-02-2005 19:12									#1
	What The Hell!! No ME Thread! Increase Your PM Length

What has happened to Poly!? A Cease-fire is declared between Palestinians and Israelis, and nary a thread?

	08-02-2005 19:18									#2
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quote: Originally posted by GePap What has happened to Poly!? A Cease-fire is declared between Palestinians and Israelis, and nary a thread?

I was thinking about it, but already had other threads up. And the news was starting to waver.

So far each side is responding to the others gestures with additional gestures of its own - hopefully these will lead to real improvements in life for both peoples. Theres still a long way to go to a final agreement, but the improving atmosphere is quite hopeful.

	08-02-2005 19:21									#3
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quote: What The Hell!! No ME Thread!

Egotistical, aren't we?

Anyway, it's encouraging, but it's only a start. Time will tell how well things will proceed. But encouraging.

	08-02-2005 19:21									#4
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quote: Originally posted by GePap What has happened to Poly!? A Cease-fire is declared between Palestinians and Israelis, and nary a thread?

We're eagerly waiting for someone to be killed first. Then we will start around 10-12 threads about the evil Jews/Palestinians violating the cease-fire and how it's all Bush's fault

	08-02-2005 19:24									#5
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I'm Israel-Palestined out. Besides what makes this cease fire different from the last 10? There's some hope because Arafat is dead but not much since Arab terrorist networks won't stop.

	08-02-2005 19:31									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin I'm Israel-Palestined out. Besides what makes this cease fire different from the last 10? There's some hope because Arafat is dead

Er, understatement of the decade? Thats precisely whats different. AFAICT whats happening now is just what Abbas intended when he first became PM in 2003, before Arafat squeleched him. Its not just Abbas - hes got a decent Interior Minister in place, IIUC, Dahlan is playing a big role, and theres a cleaner Finance Minister. The security forces are being reformed. These are the changes everyone knew were needed, but that Arafat stopped.

And Pal security forces are patroling the borders of Gaza, and it SEEMS so far, are actually trying to stop attacks on Israel. This is exactly what Israel has said was necessary to show that peace is possible. And so far Israel has responded as theyve always said they would. And even IF Sharon is insincere, the Israeli public is watching, is quite aware of whats going on. The Pals are doing what theyre supposed to more than at any time since 1996 - and, I think, more than they did then. There is more reason to think that peace is really possible than at any time since Oslo.

	08-02-2005 19:43									#7
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While always doubtful of these types of things (due to previous experiences) it is encouraging to see that Hamas and Isl Jihad were part of the agreement. But I'll wait and see before I get too hopefull.

Let's just hope this isn't another case of "we needed a little time to reload"

	08-02-2005 19:46									#8
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This is looking good now, since the Palestenian security forces indeed seem to be trying to prevent attacks on Israel and shelling of Israeli settlements. Arafat was looked at as an icon, a personification of the fight against Israel, while Abbas seems more reasonable than that. He doesn't have a strong position yet and he does need support from Hamas and similar organizations, but after all, Hamas doesn't like it when the IDF attacks them either, and so they must also be happy about a ceasefire.

There is no doubt that the Israeli Palestenian relations will remain very tense, but at least there is now hope of terror acts stopping for a considerable amount of time. And Abbas, just as predicted, is trying to see what diplomacy can provide before he takes a violent and noncomittal state, which he hopefully won't. The good part is that Sharon is actually satisfied.

	08-02-2005 20:31									#9
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quote: Originally posted by rah While always doubtful of these types of things (due to previous experiences) it is encouraging to see that Hamas and Isl Jihad were part of the agreement.

Hamas: 'We are not bound by ceasefire'

	08-02-2005 20:38									#10
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We all knew the terror organizations would try to weazel out of the cease fire. They claimed they'd follow the will of the Palestinian people and the recent election pretty much showed what the Palestinian people wanted (moderate government and peace) yet here is Hamas saying they'd ignore the cease fire they agreed to.

	08-02-2005 20:38									#11
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That's too bad, it had been early reported that they had been involved in the discussions and agreed. Wishful reporting I guess.

	08-02-2005 20:40									#12
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quote: Originally posted by GePap What has happened to Poly!? A Cease-fire is declared between Palestinians and Israelis, and nary a thread?

It's kinda like the boy who cried wolf. We keep hearing about a peace breakthrough but it ends up in violence.

So, let's wait and see what happens before declaring global peace.

Hopefully, both sides will move towards genuine peace this time.

	08-02-2005 20:44									#13
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I wouldnt trust Hamas if they DID participate. Their absence is no great loss, it just means a different strategy. Its movement toward peace between PA/Fatah and Israel thats important. Ultimately Hamas will have to be dealt with, possibly by Pal security forces.

	08-02-2005 20:47									#14
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As the terrorists don't work for the Palestinian administration, I doubt all of them will agree to stop attacking. And as soon as something bad happens, Israel will blame the Palestinian administration, then make revenge raids with a lot of colateral damage and we are back where we started.

	08-02-2005 20:55									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Chemical Ollie As the terrorists don't work for the Palestinian administration, I doubt all of them will agree to stop attacking. And as soon as something bad happens, Israel will blame the Palestinian administration, then make revenge raids with a lot of colateral damage and we are back where we started.

Not as long as the PA is making a real effort, which it has under Abbas so far.

	08-02-2005 21:04									#16
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark I wouldnt trust Hamas if they DID participate.

Ditto. The last time around, one of the Hamas spokesperson admitted that they joined the temporary ceasefire in order to rearm and rebuild, not out of an interest for peace.

	08-02-2005 21:31									#17
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I posted an optimistic thread, too... but it quickly died from lack of interest.

quote: Er, understatement of the decade? Thats precisely whats different.

The major difference between this one and all the last peace agreements since 1948 which makes me particularly hopeful is that currently there are no foreign countries which are messing with their bilateral relations behind the scenes. USSR died out, USA is bogged in Iraq, and all the neighbouring countries seem to be too busy with their secularist domestic concerns.

	08-02-2005 21:37									#18
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There's only one way for a terrorist to retire.

A gunshot to the back of the head.

	08-02-2005 21:44									#19
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You want a ME thread? How's this: "My ship is visiting Bahrain, and it's the biggest sh*thole I've ever seen. And I've been to Tijuana."

How's that for a ME thread/topic?

	08-02-2005 21:53									#20
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quote: Originally posted by rah There's only one way for a terrorist to retire. A gunshot to the back of the head.

The question here is, whether the Palestenian security forces will actively go against terrorists like Hamas - or rather, whether Abbas will have enough power to have those forces go after Hamas.

	08-02-2005 22:01									#21
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quote: Originally posted by rah There's only one way for a terrorist to retire. A gunshot to the back of the head.

Yeah, but don't say that it was fun or the PC police will come to arrest you.

	08-02-2005 22:02									#22
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quote: Originally posted by VJ I posted an optimistic thread, too... but it quickly died from lack of interest. The major difference between this one and all the last peace agreements since 1948 which makes me particularly hopeful is that currently there are no foreign countries which are messing with their bilateral relations behind the scenes. USSR died out, USA is bogged in Iraq, and all the neighbouring countries seem to be too busy with their secularist domestic concerns.

On the contrary, Jordan and Egypt are supporting the process, and this is an important step forward from both 2003 and 2000. The US is also supporting the process and has just announced it will be help train Pal security forces. Syria and Iran continue to be problematic. The USSR is not there (and Russias involvement has been limited) but thats been true for some time.

	08-02-2005 22:04									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Solver The question here is, whether the Palestenian security forces will actively go against terrorists like Hamas - or rather, whether Abbas will have enough power to have those forces go after Hamas.

Something in between the mass disarmament the Israelis want, and the doing nothing that happened under Arafat, I think.

	08-02-2005 22:08									#24
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quote: On the contrary, Jordan and Egypt are supporting the process, and this is an important step forward from both 2003 and 2000. The US is also supporting the process and has just announced it will be help train Pal security forces. Syria and Iran continue to be problematic.

In politics, everybody is always playing nice when it comes to public image.
You have to look underneath the PR BS, at the hidden agendas, that's why I said 'behind the scenes'.

	08-02-2005 22:13									#25
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quote: Originally posted by GePap What has happened to Poly!? A Cease-fire is declared between Palestinians and Israelis, and nary a thread?

we've seen this dog and pony show before.

	08-02-2005 22:27									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Lonestar You want a ME thread? How's this: "My ship is visiting Bahrain, and it's the biggest sh*thole I've ever seen. And I've been to Tijuana." How's that for a ME thread/topic?

Most of the middle east looks like that. A select few have used oil money to spruce things up but most look worse then your average Latin American shanty town.

	08-02-2005 22:33									#27
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Haaretz

"Analysis / The intifada's graduation party

By Aluf Benn

Four leaders will gather in Sharm el-Sheikh today to confirm that Yasser Arafat is dead and to declare a new era for the regions. It's the intifada's graduation party, where Mahmoud Abbas and Ariel Sharon will announce an end to the hostilities and the start of a new road. Arafat apparently won't be mentioned, not even in the Palestinian speech. But his departure created the new opportunity more than any other factor.


At the last summit, in Aqaba in June 2003, the American stage managers controlled the details. They dictated the speeches of the leaders and produced an impressive TV spectacle, which quickly faded in a new wave of terror and assassinations. This time Sharon is going to an Arab state alone, opposite three Arab leaders, and without an American babysitter. "No doubt the speeches won't be as good this time," they said in Sharon's office yesterday, "but we're hoping the actions will be more successful."

Israel wants the summit to focus as much as possible on security and as little as possible on the "political horizon." Sharon wants a public commitment from Abbas to halt and uproot the terror and in exchange he will promise an end to military activity, gestures like freeing prisoners and transferring cities and a lot of positive and optimistic words. And that's where his generosity will end.

Sharon will express a commitment to the road map but will make clear that talk about it will begin only after the disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank. The promise of a Palestinian state will be held out as collateral for a quiet, coordinated withdrawal. This is Sharon's order of events: after the summit, a period of calm, to enable the Palestinian Authority to begin dismantling the terrorist infrastructure and Israel to prepare for the disengagement.

Yesterday the sides exchanged drafts of their speeches. The original draft of the Palestinian speech detailed Israeli injustices with a paragraph about the separation fence, one about Jerusalem and another about refugees. The Israelis said, no problem, we'll add "Bush's letter" about settlement blocs to our speech. After four hours of bargaining, the Palestinians softened. Abbas will say "there are further issues under dispute" like the fence, and they will be discussed in the future.

Foreign policy is always derived from domestic policy and Sharon's main expectations are focused on the political arena at home. The live broadcasts from Sharm el-Sheikh, the pictures of the embraces with Mubarak, Abbas and Abdullah, the anecdotes and color stories about the wonderful friendships the prime minister forged with the neighbors' leaders are supposed to bolster Sharon's public position and weaken the disengagement's opponents. The summit will enable Sharon to boost his ratings in the polls this coming weekend.

And then all that remains will be waiting to see if the promises are kept and the conflict is really over, or whether this time, too, the declarations will evaporate in a renewed outbreak of fighting.'

	08-02-2005 23:31									#28
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What incentive do groups like Hamas have for backing off. If the Pals win, they lose all their influence unless they're seen as the ones that made them win, and even then it's dimished. Rabid dogs don't do well in times of peace. They've been doing it so long now that they probably know no other way. I guess this is the real difference between them and freedom fighters. Freedom fighters stop fighting when they win. I doubt Hamas will ever stop.

	08-02-2005 23:37									#29
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quote: Originally posted by rah What incentive do groups like Hamas have for backing off. .

Continuing to breathe?

	08-02-2005 23:44									#30
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You are claiming that people who invented the suicide bomber are worried about dying for the cause?