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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:25
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
The people of Iran can do as they please- the issue is US policy, not Iranian popular actions.
LOTM - i took issue with the use of the word counterrevolutionary. No, not every issue is about US policy. But thanks for revealing something of the outlook that some bring to discussing US policy. And one neednt be a manichean to consider that calling a revolution in Iran a counterrevolution reveals a certain view about the desirability of said revolution.
I seriously doubt thought at all that a revolt is on the way simply because people are unhappy- if that was all that was needed, revolt would be much more widespread, and regimes throughout the world would have fallen long ago, you know, like Egypt.
Unemployment is enough to bring down a parlimetary or democratic government, not an authoritarian one.
LOTM - first, theres been some ferment lately in Egypt. I wouldnt bet the farm on Hosni being able to pass the throne to his son. Secondly Ive seen evidence of ferment in Iran. In addition to items in the media, ive heard things from people I know whove been to Iran. Im afraid I dont know anyone whos been to Egypt lately, so i cant really compare. I think there are two differences - in Egypt the ferment in the 80s was led by radical Islamists, and thats caused a large segment of the population, and all of the elite and security services to rally to the regime. Not the case in Iran. Also in Egypt the regime tends to divert anger against ISrael (even when they are quietly working with Israel) While this has worked for the regime in the past, my sense is that this is of lessening value - Iranians are not concerned directly with Israel as Egyptians are, but were hostile to Israel for its support of the late Shah. As time passes and the late Shah becomes less central to Iranian politics, this changes.
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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:25
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
The US and Russia have dramatically reduced their arsenals since 1987. |
Yet neither has ever stated they will give them up, and having 3000+ strategic warheads, while better than 20,000+, is still not moving towards total disarmament, which was supposed to be the deal.
quote:
LOTM - i took issue with the use of the word counterrevolutionary. No, not every issue is about US policy. But thanks for revealing something of the outlook that some bring to discussing US policy. And one neednt be a manichean to consider that calling a revolution in Iran a counterrevolution reveals a certain view about the desirability of said revolution. |
A response to this lies with the other thread.
quote:
LOTM - first, theres been some ferment lately in Egypt. I wouldnt bet the farm on Hosni being able to pass the throne to his son. Secondly Ive seen evidence of ferment in Iran. In addition to items in the media, ive heard things from people I know whove been to Iran. Im afraid I dont know anyone whos been to Egypt lately, so i cant really compare. I think there are two differences - in Egypt the ferment in the 80s was led by radical Islamists, and thats caused a large segment of the population, and all of the elite and security services to rally to the regime. Not the case in Iran. Also in Egypt the regime tends to divert anger against ISrael (even when they are quietly working with Israel) While this has worked for the regime in the past, my sense is that this is of lessening value - Iranians are not concerned directly with Israel as Egyptians are, but were hostile to Israel for its support of the late Shah. As time passes and the late Shah becomes less central to Iranian politics, this changes. |
Public ferment and succesful revolt are two very different things-there was ferment in Iran in the mid 60's when the Shah was undergoing the "White Revolution", but he survived it. For a revolt to work it needs more than just a ground of unhappiness, it needs organization, which is why authoritarian regimes are able to hold them down, but crushing organization.
As for going on in Iran, I remember when they had that fire festival last year and emigre sites sold it for a while as if it seemed a revolt was going on- which was not the case.
But the point of this threads is nuclear proliferation. Maybe there will be a revolt in Iran in a decade. Maybe in 5 years. Who knows, but in 5 years if the Iranians really pushed it they might be able to make a nuke, and certainly in 10. If our aim then is to stop nukes from being acquired under this regime, trying to wait out the clock will fail. To some extent, that was the thinking with NK back in the mid'90's, hey, look, the states is starving to death, it can;t possibly last!
But woops, look were we are now.
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child of Thor
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
quote:
support the arab israeli peace process, and cut off funds to terrorist groups that obstruct it. |
The Sharon government would be a good start. |
exactly what i'm trying to get at. No one country on this planet today can claim exclusive 'goodness' rites over another country.
Neither the American posters here should really believe their country is all goodness and light(because it isnt), and no British person either imho - we've done all sorts of awfull things in the past(and present).
When any country tries this it leads to war and innocent non combatant people dying.
Now just because you've been brain-washed isnt a valid excuse imho. Look at what happend in WW2 when theoretical rhetoric was used by the governments on both sides of the divide.
We need to be smarter than this. We need to make our hard won democracies actualy count for something.
We need to scrutinize our elected servents much more closely.
We need to make sure that if we really want to change the world for the better - spreading peace and prosperity and democracy, then we need our actions in the world to be positive. Killing people either directly or indirectly isn't positve action.
So lets just all grow up as human beings - put behind us our primitive and bloody past and reach into the future for a positive, respectful, fair world.
I really believe that by using our streangths we can change the world for the better - by shareing our wealth, our freedom(and i dont mean the current Bush's version of it at all) etc we would win everyone around.
In the old days you could simply conquer a people. word didn't travel far or fast, so you could get away with it. We dont live in that world anymore(and havent fora good few hundred years).
But the generous/benevolent leader of a prosperous people would be able to effect the change necesary for us to move forward, it wont be easy and it wont happen over night. It will take alot of effort from us all in our privaliged postions.
Thats my gut feeling on it, and i believe more and more people are coming around to this point of view.
The people of the world are educated, smart, and more informed. We can see the wood for the trees and we will endevour to make the story of humankind a success rather than a dismal failure.
Then true good will have won the day and your childrens children will thank us for the trouble we went to. Its quite simple really. 
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11-02-2005 19:45
but i'm not your enemy - i hope to save you 
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