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GePap is offline GePap
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  Old Post 17-02-2005 11:55
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quote:
Originally posted by Lord Nuclear
Are there any main differences between Hamas and Hezbollah, other than the country they originate from?


Yes. The most basic, Hizbullah is Shia, Hamas is Sunni.

Well, its been a more than a week, and maybe Hizbullah is slacking, cause they haven't killed Abbas or blown up Israelis yet. Damn lazy Hizbullah! Is this how you undermine a peace process??

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  Old Post 17-02-2005 14:16
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quote:
Originally posted by DinoDoc
Hope died.


witty comeback

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  Old Post 17-02-2005 14:33
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Yes. The most basic, Hizbullah is Shia, Hamas is Sunni.

Well, its been a more than a week, and maybe Hizbullah is slacking, cause they haven't killed Abbas or blown up Israelis yet. Damn lazy Hizbullah! Is this how you undermine a peace process??


You are welcome to read interviews with top members of Al-Aqsa martyrs brigades, who say that ever since Abbas came to power, Hizbullah has began increasing the sums of money sent to Al-Aqsa terrorist cells, to perform terrorist attacks on Israeli targets and ruin Abba's agenda of getting a cease fire and including the al-aqsa martyrs back into the PA. By doing that, btw, increasing the already great tear between the Fatah institution and the Al-Aqsa martyrs.

Last edited by Sirotnikov on 17-02-2005 at 14:48

The Mad Monk is offline The Mad Monk
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  Old Post 17-02-2005 15:57
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Yes. The most basic, Hizbullah is Shia, Hamas is Sunni.

Well, its been a more than a week, and maybe Hizbullah is slacking, cause they haven't killed Abbas or blown up Israelis yet. Damn lazy Hizbullah! Is this how you undermine a peace process??


They had some business to wrap up in Lebanon.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 17-02-2005 19:39
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Yes. The most basic, Hizbullah is Shia, Hamas is Sunni.

Well, its been a more than a week, and maybe Hizbullah is slacking, cause they haven't killed Abbas or blown up Israelis yet. Damn lazy Hizbullah! Is this how you undermine a peace process??



The israelis have stopped attacks from the West Bank. And apparently the Pal security have stopped some from Gaza. The fact that you try to undermine something doesnt mean you succceed. It would seem fair that those who are now mocking the threat from Hezbollah congratulate the IDF on its successes in blocking terrorist attacks. How about it?

GePap is offline GePap
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  Old Post 17-02-2005 19:57
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It amazes me that people are still willing to listen to self-serving government announcements and suspicions anymore, specially from anyone in the ME. Nah, I wait until something happens, or someone has concrete evidence before getting my panties in a bunch. Ususally works better that way, less likely to, I don;t know, go nuts over things that end up not there, perhaps?

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  Old Post 17-02-2005 21:28
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


It amazes me that people are still willing to listen to self-serving government announcements and suspicions anymore, specially from anyone in the ME. Nah, I wait until something happens, or someone has concrete evidence before getting my panties in a bunch. Ususally works better that way, less likely to, I don;t know, go nuts over things that end up not there, perhaps?


If it had come from the Israeli govt i wouldnt have posted it. I found it interesting that it came from PA officials. Surely they havent signed on to the agendas of either the Sharon govt or the Bush admin. If the PA is complaining, I think theres something there. How exactly is it self-serving from the PA POV, unless they see either Hezb, Syria and/or Iran as a thread of some kind, at least a political threat. (that it is consistent with what we have heard from Israeli and US sources is also interesting, but not the key fact here)


As for something happening, theres been Hezbollah support for terrorism in the territories for several years, according to sources I trust. Of course they dont issue press releases about it.

Last edited by lord of the mark on 17-02-2005 at 21:34

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 17-02-2005 21:58
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The NYT

"In the past two weeks, the officials said, France has rebuffed appeals by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Israeli foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, to list Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, which would prevent it from raising money in Europe through charity groups. The United States has long called Hezbollah a terrorist organization, but the French, American and European officials said, have opposed doing so, and argue that making such a designation now would be unwise, given the new turbulence in Lebanon.

Israeli and American officials say that the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, has told them that he, too, regards Hezbollah as a destructive force in the Middle East, one determined to undermine peace talks by supporting militant groups that attack Israelis.

The officials and diplomats interviewed would not give their names, saying they did not want to be seen as worsening tensions between the United States and Europe on the eve of Mr. Bush's trip.

The Europeans are not solidly opposed to listing Hezbollah as a terrorist group, the officials said. The Netherlands, Italy and Poland support the Bush administration's view, several officials said, while Germany and Britain believe the issue is moot unless the French change their minds. One European diplomat said other countries were "hiding behind" France on the issue.

So Mahmud Abbas versus Jacque Chirac. Whos more self-serving?

GePap is offline GePap
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"who is more self-serving"? What kind of question is that?

Do you have anything, other than your own biases, to make a judgement? NO.

Answer: Both are self-serving- all pols must be to some degree.

The PA has a reason to blame Hezbullah for any problems that might come up, since it makes it the fault of some outside, non-palestinian group, and better even if its one of the other sides favorite nemesis, no?

Does this mean Hezbullah is not doing anything? No. It means I have no reason to get my panties in a bunch about claims of Hezbullah actions, as opposed to, I don;t know, proof of Hezbullah intentions, or actual hezbullah financed actions.

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  Old Post 18-02-2005 00:52
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Abbas also has abundant reason NOT to get on the bad side of Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran. Unless of course he thinks their already gunning for him.

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  Old Post 18-02-2005 01:10
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Sydney Morning Herald

quote:
Hezbollah fighters may target Abbas
By Inigo Gilmore
February 14, 2005

Palestinian security officials have received threats that the President, Mahmoud Abbas, could be killed by Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorists if he continues moves towards reconciliation with Israel.

Mr Abbas agreed to a ceasefire with Israel and shook hands with its Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, at last week's summit at Sharm el-Sheik in Egypt.

Palestinian officials sounded the alarm after hearing that Hezbollah is urging Hamas militants in Gaza and the West Bank to continue to attack Israel.

The threats to Mr Abbas came indirectly, via Palestinian Hezbollah contacts, but were being taken "very, very seriously", one official said.


Well I suppose they COULD be making that up. Presumably they CANT name the contacts in public.

quote:
"Many groups both here and outside do not want a ceasefire because a ceasefire means they will be without power," he said.

"As in Iraq, a lot of different powers and groups in the region are involved here and are trying to manage the resistance in our territory. Abbas is challenging their power, and so it is a dangerous path for him."

Hezbollah emerged as a dangerous force in the 1980s while fighting Israel in southern Lebanon and has since evolved into a chief financier and supporter of terrorist action in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The militia, which is also backed by Syria as a proxy force in its struggle with Israel over the Golan Heights, has apparently increased its influence as other sources of funding for militant groups have dried up.

[q]Mr Abbas acknowledged that Hezbollah might threaten his life during a private meeting with two US senators just before last month's Palestinian election, Newsweek quoted an unnamed congressional official as saying. "He said the main threat might be less Hamas and more external."


Okay, self serving, maybe.


quote:
Palestinian officials claim to have intercepted email and other correspondence showing the bank transactions through which Hezbollah has provided funds for Palestinian terrorists.


I guess sources and methods reason NOT to show the emails, etc. Would they be believed without details of how they did the interception?

quote:
Reports last week suggested that Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon have been offering up to $US100,000 ($127,000) to any Palestinian willing to carry out a suicide attack against Israel.



I need to check the source on this.

quote:
Hezbollah denied on Saturday it was attempting to wreck the truce and said the Jewish state had accused the Islamic guerillas in order to mask its own plans to destroy peace efforts.


Well, I suppose many would give credence to that motivation for Israels accusations (I await Hezbs statement on Abbas motivations) My sense of Israeli politics, including of Sharon, as indicated by his recent actions, would tend against Hezbs interpretation. But thats me.

GePap is offline GePap
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  Old Post 18-02-2005 01:52
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
Abbas also has abundant reason NOT to get on the bad side of Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran. Unless of course he thinks their already gunning for him.


Which are? Its obvious he decided to try for peace with Israel, which would instantly put him on the bad graces of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, period. He must have known that-the man is not an idiot.

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  Old Post 18-02-2005 01:56
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Which are? Its obvious he decided to try for peace with Israel, which would instantly put him on the bad graces of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, period. He must have known that-the man is not an idiot.


theres bad graces and theres bad graces. Calling Hezb and Syria and Iran on support for terrorism, thus lending support to US and Israeli accusations, which are now being used as grounds for sanctions, and which could become part of a case for war, is certainly a dangerous path, more dangerous than even making peace.

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  Old Post 18-02-2005 02:06
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


theres bad graces and theres bad graces. Calling Hezb and Syria and Iran on support for terrorism, thus lending support to US and Israeli accusations, which are now being used as grounds for sanctions, and which could become part of a case for war, is certainly a dangerous path, more dangerous than even making peace.


"supporting terrorism"?

He claimed Hezbullah is trying to undermine the peace process by paying people to conduct attacks- that is not the same as "validating the evil claims of other people", anymore than it is him invalidating the entire Intifadah or saying that the "martyrs" were not really martyrs but terrorists.


On a bit of good news, Israel has announced it will stop the deplorable tactic of home demolitions as collective punishment to deter further militant attacks, after doing and study and finding it had little effect, specially since many Islamic groups stepped in to help the families recoup.

So, good news that this practice is ending

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 18-02-2005 02:16
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


"supporting terrorism"?

He claimed Hezbullah is trying to undermine the peace process by paying people to conduct attacks- that is not the same as "validating the evil claims of other people", anymore than it is him invalidating the entire Intifadah or saying that the "martyrs" were not really martyrs but terrorists.


Ok, he validated that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are paying people to kill civilians, and are trying to kill him, acts which some others have called terrorism, which he is not attacking in the context of the intifidah, but presumbly does oppose in the current context - but the key fact is that hes supporting that Hezb is paying for attacks.

Is that lawyerly enough for you?

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 18-02-2005 02:20
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


"supporting terrorism"?

He claimed Hezbullah is trying to undermine the peace process by paying people to conduct attacks- that is not the same as "validating the evil claims of other people", anymore than it is him invalidating the entire Intifadah or saying that the "martyrs" were not really martyrs but terrorists.


On a bit of good news, Israel has announced it will stop the deplorable tactic of home demolitions as collective punishment to deter further militant attacks, after doing and study and finding it had little effect, specially since many Islamic groups stepped in to help the families recoup.

So, good news that this practice is ending



"In a Reuters interview in 2003, when demolitions peaked, leading Palestinian rights activist Bassam Eid agreed the tactic was a deterrent, but said it cost long-term peace hopes. "


from what i can gather its not that the tactic was not effective as a deterrent, but that theyve decided that under current conditions the increased ill will means its a net loss. Obviously the value of good will/ill will depends on the political situation, and is much higher now that the principle obstacle to peace is in his grave.

If you have a citation for your interpretation id be happy to see it though. I got mine from Reuters, i think, and theyre not always complete.

GePap is offline GePap
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No, its not.

Its a question of priorities and values: your first statement implied that Abbas' position validated in any way the US and Israeli accusation vs. Hezbollah and thus he was siding with the US and Israel. This is NOT the thrust of his statements, his thrust is siding with the Palestinian people, by making the point that the armed struggle is the wrong strategy, that the palestinian people by electing him decided to try non-violence and peace, and that Hezbollah was trying to undermine the choice of Palestinians (him and his new policy).

Honestly LoTM, you would not have much a a future in politics.

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  Old Post 18-02-2005 02:23
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much other good news as well. The knesset has passed another bill supporting the disengagement plan, Jordan is returning its ambassador to Israel, the Iraqi National Assembly is about to be seated, Lebanese are calling en masse for Syria to withdraw.

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  Old Post 18-02-2005 02:25
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Don't you just hate it when the bad guys win?

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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
No, its not.

Its a question of priorities and values: your first statement implied that Abbas' position validated in any way the US and Israeli accusation vs. Hezbollah and thus he was siding with the US and Israel. This is NOT the thrust of his statements, his thrust is siding with the Palestinian people, by making the point that the armed struggle is the wrong strategy, that the palestinian people by electing him decided to try non-violence and peace, and that Hezbollah was trying to undermine the choice of Palestinians (him and his new policy).

Honestly LoTM, you would not have much a a future in politics.


I did NOT say that Abbas was siding with the US and Israel, and of course he is siding with the Pal people. In the course of making his point however, he confirmed a specific FACT, which does support the claims that the US and Israel have made about Hezbollah.


Its kinda like when the police are trying to find a suspects whereabouts at the time of the crime, and his wife screams to them that he beat her up at 6 oclock, and she tossed him out at 7 oclock. HER agenda is to complain about being beaten up, and to show how tough she was to toss him out. THEIR agenda is to establish that the suspect was NOT at home at 8 oclock.


You have a great future as a blogger, or columnist, I must say.

Edan is offline Edan
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Old article, but it gives some examples of suicide bombers being deterred

But right now, with prospects of peace high, not going ahead with demolitions is a good move.

Last edited by Edan on 18-02-2005 at 02:40

Ramo is offline Ramo
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I'm more interested in which terracts Abbas is specifically accusing Hizbullah of.

I agree with GePap that Abbas certainly has a vested interest in blaming Hizbullah. By doing that, he gets points with the Israelis without pissing off his domestic opposition - Hamas; it's a win-win scenario for him.

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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark


I did NOT say that Abbas was siding with the US and Israel, and of course he is siding with the Pal people. In the course of making his point however, he confirmed a specific FACT, which does support the claims that the US and Israel have made about Hezbollah.


Like Abbas was stating that prior to now Hezbollah had never done it? Or would you claim that Abbas statements urgin Hamas not to carry out attacks validates US claims that Hamas is a terrorist org? Your statement was how Abbas would be "taking on" these groups- by that you seem to say that Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria would all see his statements as validating Israeli and US claims about the need for sanctions, or even all the way to war- I am stating that that is wrong, and I do not think they would see it as such, anymore than the average palestinian would think that somehow, by criticizing Hezbollah you validate Israeli actions.

quote:

Its kinda like when the police are trying to find a suspects whereabouts at the time of the crime, and his wife screams to them that he beat her up at 6 oclock, and she tossed him out at 7 oclock. HER agenda is to complain about being beaten up, and to show how tough she was to toss him out. THEIR agenda is to establish that the suspect was NOT at home at 8 oclock.


Except your statement was about the reaction from hezbollah, Syria, and Iran. NOt that of the US and Israel. So you have to speak about the issue from the view of said "suspect".

quote:

You have a great future as a blogger, or columnist, I must say.


Yes, I am sure I would do fine in those fields, not that I plan to.

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To make an analogy to Iraq (which I'm sure y'all are not sick of ), there's been a great deal of effort made by the Allawi gov't to blame violence on "foreign fighters" and Iran, rather than the domestic oppositions responsible for the overwhelming majority of violence.

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quote:
Originally posted by Edan
Old article, but it gives some examples of suicide bombers being deterred

But right now, with prospects of peace high, not going ahead with demolitions is a good move.


The IDF stated they had 22 example of this tactic working, out of over 630 such demolitions, or a 3.5% effectiveness rate.

Not in any way worth the human cost of this collecitve punishment.

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quote:
Not in any way worth the human cost of this collecitve punishment.


As if they care about that.

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quote:
Originally posted by Ramo
I'm more interested in which terracts Abbas is specifically accusing Hizbullah of.

I agree with GePap that Abbas certainly has a vested interest in blaming Hizbullah. By doing that, he gets points with the Israelis without pissing off his domestic opposition - Hamas; it's a win-win scenario for him.


As I said before, I don;t know if this is true or not, might, might not, but in the end, I doubt that even if Hezbollah wanted to derail the peace process they could not, as long as the PA was serious about it.

On the other hand, Hamas might have the ability to undermine the process, but indirectly, by showing the inability of the PA to deliver.

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Like Abbas was stating that prior to now Hezbollah had never done it? Or would you claim that Abbas statements urgin Hamas not to carry out attacks validates US claims that Hamas is a terrorist org?


I dont think there is anyone who is in any doubt that Hamas targets Israeli civilians. The FACTS of the case are not at issue, whatever labels are attached. In the case of Hezbollah, their involvement in support of such attacks IS at issue, IIUC. Im taking Abbas as a witness to the facts. To use the crime analogy, if the issue in question is who pulled the trigger that killed Col Mustard, and a witness says Mr Plumb did it, thats good enough, and I dont really care with Mr. Plumb thinks it was justifiable based on Col. Mustards crimes as a colonialist.


quote:
Your statement was how Abbas would be "taking on" these groups- by that you seem to say that Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria would all see his statements as validating Israeli and US claims about the need for sanctions, or even all the way to war- I am stating that that is wrong, and I do not think they would see it as such, anymore than the average palestinian would think that somehow, by criticizing Hezbollah you validate Israeli actions.


Except your statement was about the reaction from hezbollah, Syria, and Iran. NOt that of the US and Israel. So you have to speak about the issue from the view of said "suspect".


If the suspect thinks his wife is stupid, and was fooled by the cops into blowing his alibi, he may forgive her. If, OTOH, the fact that the police were trying to determine his alibi was well known, and she knew it, and she was smart, then hes likely to be damned pissed at her. He might even try to kill her. And she, in turn, being smart, is likely to take that into account when making her statement - if, knowing she could be killed for it, she still makes it, that adds weight to it.

In our case, Abbas and the PA officials are VERY MUCH aware that the US and Israel are currently pressing the EU to sanction Hezbollah. They also are quite aware of the Bush doctrine regarding state support for terrorists. They are certainly aware that Israel has claimed in the past that Hezb supported attacks, and that those claims have been contested. They therefore certainly know that their OWN statements to that effect would have an impact on the debate. And the Iranians, Syrians, and Hezb KNOW that Abbas et al know that. And Abbas et al know that Iran, Syria, and Hezb know that the Pals know all that.

Really, do you think Abbas has been living on the moon these last 5 years?

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What I find interesting is that Hizbullah has been fairly quiet these past 5 years - ever since Israel withdrew from Lebanon. If there is a resurgence in their militance, what's responsible for it? The crushing of the Iranian Reformists causing a push for violence from Tehran? The US pissing off the Shia community (a rediculous amount of Lebanese protested during the siege of the Imam Ali Shrine)?

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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


As I said before, I don;t know if this is true or not, might, might not, but in the end, I doubt that even if Hezbollah wanted to derail the peace process they could not, as long as the PA was serious about it.

On the other hand, Hamas might have the ability to undermine the process, but indirectly, by showing the inability of the PA to deliver.


the way Hamas or Hezb undermine the process is by CAUSING the inability of the PA to deliver, by launching terrorist acts that make it impossible for Sharon to make the concessions that Abbas needs. Now Sharon knows they will pursue this strategy, and will make allowance for it, but beyond a certain point Israeli forebearance will not last.

 
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