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DaShi is offline DaShi
Prince
The Taste of Japan
Sep 2000
time: 05:24
  Old Post 13-02-2005 19:27
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Russia and Japan: Together At Last Tired of ads?

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/13/i...e/13russia.html

quote:

Japan and Russia, With an Eye on China, Bury the Sword
By JAMES BROOKE

Published: February 13, 2005


HABAROVSK, Russia - The Russian general gamely tried on a samurai helmet. The visiting Japanese general donned a Russian fur hat. Together, they watched Russian tanks maneuver across the snow-covered terrain.

Japan and Russia are weaving closer military and economic relations, and the reason lies just across the Amur River from here - China.

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That is a big change for Russia and Japan, which for two centuries have eyed each other warily in Northeast Asia. To this day, Japanese are slow to forgive Russia for the deaths of thousands of World War II prisoners in Siberian work camps. Russian dead at the hands of what they call the samurai are memorialized at Soviet-era monuments. The two nations never even signed a peace treaty ending World War II.

Yet visits by navy and coast guard units of each country have become annual affairs. In 2004, bilateral trade jumped 38 percent over 2003 levels. Japan has become the largest foreign investor in the oil and gas projects of Sakhalin, the largest foreign investment in Russia today. Toyota, Japan's largest corporation, has announced plans to build an auto plant in Russia.

"As long as Japan and Russia are in cooperation, China will not be able to move against us," Toshiyuki Shikata, a military analyst at Teikyo University, said in a telephone interview, echoing a rapidly emerging view in Tokyo.

China's effort to achieve regional supremacy is bringing Japan and Russia together, Michael R. Auslin, an assistant professor in northeast Asian history at Yale University, said in a telephone interview.

"Since the 1790's, the Japanese have always been worried about Russia, and the Russian-Japanese relationship has always been tense," he added. "Without the growing China threat, I don't see the two sides coming together."

In a policy statement in December, Japan for the first time cited China and North Korea as potential military threats.

Japan is increasingly alarmed about Chinese military purchases and investments in modern submarines. Still, with an aging population, Japan is cutting its overall military spending by about 4 percent over the next decade, diverting some money to the elderly.

Driving Moscow's insecurities, the Russian Far East has lost 700,000 people, or 10 percent of its population, since 1990. Along Siberian stretches of Russia's long border with China, abandoned shells of Soviet and Russian military barracks are common sights.

With Russia's conventional forces a shadow of their Soviet strength, the nation increasingly relies on diplomacy and its nuclear threat to ensure respect of its borders.

The visit here in November by Lt. Gen. Kenji Tokuda, commander of Japan's northern forces, helped pave the way for Japan's announcement on Dec. 10 that it would cut the number of its tanks and artillery pieces by a third.

One week before the announcement, Aleksandr P. Losyukov, Russia's ambassador to Japan, flew to Hokkaido and met with General Tokuda. Later, in an interview in Tokyo, the ambassador said, half joking, "I apologized for no longer representing a threat, for the fact that he is losing resources."

From the Japanese side, a military analyst at Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan's leading conservative newspaper, wrote of the new military orientation, "A threat that no longer exists is the scenario of a full-scale invasion of Hokkaido by Russian ground forces."

Still, Japan maintains grievances with Russia. For almost 60 years, Japan has demanded the return of four islands in the Kurile chain that were seized by Soviet troops in the last days of World War II. In addition, Japanese officials are angry over Russia's booming sales of warplanes, ships and missiles to China. Last year, China was the biggest customer for Russia's military exports company.

But Japan's fear of China overrides such irritants.

Here in the Russian Far East, attitudes toward Japan are the most favorable in all of Russia, according to a nationwide poll conducted in late 2004 for the Japanese Embassy in Moscow. On the other hand, local nervousness has been growing over the large number of Chinese tourists, 200,000 last summer alone. Assaults on Chinese visitors are increasing.

In contrast, there have been no public objections to the increasingly close cooperation between the navies and coast guards of Russia and Japan. Since 2001, there have been annual Japanese port calls to Vladivostok, home to Russia's Pacific Fleet; there have been no port calls by the Chinese Navy.

Relations between admirals have "developed well on a personal level," a Japanese diplomat in Vladivostok said. Russian Navy cooperation is so close that the Pacific Fleet is discussing a joint commemoration with Japan of the May 27-28, 1905, Battle of Tsushima, in which Russia's fleet was all but destroyed in the Korea Strait and which secured Japan's victory in the Russo-Japanese war.

Today, cooperation between the coast guards is equally close as both countries work to improve safety and reduce pollution and poaching in the Sea of Japan. Through October, a joint Russia-Japan effort to combat poaching netted the detention of 36 ships, compared with three during all of 2003, said Aleksandr Ivankov, deputy head of Russia's border guards in the Vladivostok region.

Japan also is spending $180 million to help Russia dispose of 42 nuclear-powered submarines that are rusting away in the Russian Far East.

On land, Japanese and Russian forensic specialists worked together last summer to disinter the remains of some of the 5,000 Japanese prisoners of war who died in the Russian Far East in World War II.

"Japan's economic weight is much more important than its military weight," said Sergei V. Popov, a retired Soviet naval officer.

Today, attracted by the large oil and gas deposits in eastern Russia, Japan has lobbied Moscow successfully to build an oil pipeline to the Sea of Japan, skirting China.

Driven largely by these projects, Russian-Japanese trade grew to $9.5 billion in 2004.

"Trade and economic relations of Russia and Japan look promising," Ambassador Losyukov said at a December news conference in Tokyo. "We are on the threshold of possibility of the mass advent of Japanese business to the Russian Federation."

In a measure of changing Japanese attitudes to Russia, Shintaro Ishihara, governor of Tokyo and Japan's most prominent nationalist, said in an interview on Thursday: "Japan, the U.S. and Russia should jointly work on the pipeline project. It would keep China in check greatly, since China has no resources."

VJ is offline VJ
Prince
Helsinki
Dec 2001
time: 07:24
  Old Post 13-02-2005 19:35
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Seems like regional power politics straight from the 18th century to me...

Heresson is offline Heresson
King
of frogs
Jun 2000
time: 06:24
  Old Post 13-02-2005 20:34
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touching.

PLATO is offline PLATO

King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
time: 23:24
  Old Post 13-02-2005 21:32
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quote:
Originally posted by VJ
Seems like regional power politics straight from the 18th century to me...


Somethings never change, but somethings do. In their own ways, China, Japan, and Russia are huge world powers. This makes their "regional politics" of global importance.

Dr Strangelove is offline Dr Strangelove
King
USA
Jan 1970
time: 00:24
  Old Post 13-02-2005 23:30
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Say, exactly what are the Japanese going to do with those 42 nuclear subs?

PLATO is offline PLATO

King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
time: 23:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 00:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Dr Strangelove
Say, exactly what are the Japanese going to do with those 42 nuclear subs?


Cut them into recyclable chunks and make cheap steel to sell on the US market at below market prices. What else? They are already building an aircraft carrier to "protect" shipping lanes...what more do they need?

Dr Strangelove is offline Dr Strangelove
King
USA
Jan 1970
time: 00:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 04:20
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quote:
Originally posted by PLATO


Cut them into recyclable chunks and make cheap steel to sell on the US market at below market prices. What else? They are already building an aircraft carrier to "protect" shipping lanes...what more do they need?


Why nuclear subs of course! That's bound to put "Dear Leader's" panties in a bunch.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 04:24 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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Increased trade can only be a good thing for both of these nations.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
Prince
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 06:35
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Japan is pretty naive if they think linking up with a fading Russia is going to be enough to protect them from Chinese ambitions.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 06:40 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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Russia has indeed faded, but if sh1t hit the fan I would want them on my side.

PLATO is offline PLATO

King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
time: 23:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 06:50
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quote:
Originally posted by Ted Striker
Russia has indeed faded, but if sh1t hit the fan I would want them on my side.


Indeed. Even an old bear in the woods can be a dangerous thing.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
Prince
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 06:55
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I'm not saying that Japan's attempt to foster an alliance with Russia is the wrong move; it's certainly the right move and the logical first step. Reading that article, though, I get the feeling that some Japanese leaders believe it is the only necessary step. Things like this...

quote:
"As long as Japan and Russia are in cooperation, China will not be able to move against us," Toshiyuki Shikata, a military analyst at Teikyo University, said in a telephone interview, echoing a rapidly emerging view in Tokyo.


... and this...

quote:
Japan is increasingly alarmed about Chinese military purchases and investments in modern submarines. Still, with an aging population, Japan is cutting its overall military spending by about 4 percent over the next decade, diverting some money to the elderly.


... give me the impression that Japan is putting far too much faith in a strategic alignment with Russia. Russian power, particularly in the Far East, is fading fast and Japan certainly can't expect friendship with Russia to be enough to hold back a rising China...

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
of Internet Music.
Sep 2001
time: 21:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 07:12
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quote:
Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Japan is pretty naive if they think linking up with a fading Russia is going to be enough to protect them from Chinese ambitions.


I don't think they do believe that. They're likely just trying to break up the Russo-Chinese love fest that Putin does everytime he visits China. The Chinese buy tons of weapons and raw materials from the Russians so they're not going to upset the Chinese. This is just normal relationship building and nothing else.

Patroklos is offline Patroklos
Warlord
Back home in good ole Norfolk VA
Dec 2001
time: 05:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 10:10
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And then there is that other power looking after the strategic interests of Japan as well...

mindseye is offline mindseye
King
A Yankee living in Shanghai
Apr 1999
time: 13:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 10:29
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A nice post for Valentine's Day! Thanks, DaShi!

Bosh is offline Bosh
Emperor
Taehan Mingook
Jan 1970
time: 00:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 10:52
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quote:
Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
I'm not saying that Japan's attempt to foster an alliance with Russia is the wrong move; it's certainly the right move and the logical first step. Reading that article, though, I get the feeling that some Japanese leaders believe it is the only necessary step.

Well its pretty much the only step they can make, everyone else in the region hates Japan.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
Prince
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 11:32
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Taiwan doesn't. It's also a bit silly to act as though alliances with foreign powers are the only steps Japan can take to deal with the threat of China. A increase in defense spending of just 1% of GDP would probably help Japan more in the long run than this new friendshp with Russia.

VJ is offline VJ
Prince
Helsinki
Dec 2001
time: 07:24
  Old Post 14-02-2005 18:58
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quote:
Somethings never change, but somethings do. In their own ways, China, Japan, and Russia are huge world powers. This makes their "regional politics" of global importance.

That's not what I meant. I meant that the logic in this reminds me of the regional power meddling in Europe in the 18th century. Consider Russia's motives. In an area with 2 huge powers which it has no considerable loyalty ties with, it's allying itself with one which is clearly going to be the weaker one in the long run. Now where's the logic? Why would Russia seek alliances at all if it has no major interests in the area? The only motive which I thinked of was that Russia was trying to upkeep the Balance of Power between Japan and China by aligning itself with Japan, thus avoiding major future wars between the two in the future. Political thinking like this was popular in Europe for a long time. Then along came WWI and MPP's (using Civ3-terms...) in order to secure peace didn't seem to be cool ideas anymore.

quote:
It's also a bit silly to act as though alliances with foreign powers are the only steps Japan can take to deal with the threat of China. A increase in defense spending of just 1% of GDP would probably help Japan more in the long run than this new friendshp with Russia.

Russia maybe a nation with a population which is rapidly dying away and it's GDP may be in ruins; but in hard power terms, Russia backing you up would be much better than 1% GDP increase in military costs. Especially if you're having an economic crisis and don't want to create additional short-range budget costs.

Also, Russia has nuke-armed ICBM's, Japan does not.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
Prince
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:24
  Old Post 15-02-2005 05:18
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quote:
Russia maybe a nation with a population which is rapidly dying away and it's GDP may be in ruins; but in hard power terms, Russia backing you up would be much better than 1% GDP increase in military costs.


I think you underestimate how large Japan's GDP is.

edit: Some quick research seems to show that a 1% of GDP increase in Japan's defense budget would amount to around $36 billion in additional military spending. That, of course, is much larger than the Russian defense budget, which is currently at around $18 billion.

quote:
Also, Russia has nuke-armed ICBM's


So does the USA, so an alliance with Russia doesn't really give Japan any advantage they didn't already have on the nuclear umbrella front.

Last edited by Drake Tungsten on 15-02-2005 at 05:40

PLATO is offline PLATO

King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
time: 23:24
  Old Post 15-02-2005 06:20
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It does give them the advantage of China having to potetially protect a 4000 mile boarder though.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
Prince
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:24
  Old Post 15-02-2005 08:00
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I don't think the Japanese needed to play nice with Russia to get that. The Chinese aren't going to ignore the potential threat of Russia, for a variety of reasons.

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