13-02-2005 20:34									#1
	Iraqi election results Got spare money?

quote: BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A Shi'ite Islamist bloc won Iraq's first election since Saddam Hussein's overthrow, sealing the political resurgence of the nation's long-oppressed majority. The Electoral Commission said on Sunday the Shi'ite list, known as the United Iraqi Alliance, took more than 47 percent of the vote. But this was less than the bloc had predicted and leaves it six or seven seats short of a majority in parliament. A powerful Kurdish alliance came second with 25 percent, while a grouping led by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi'ite, came third with nearly 14 percent. Few Sunni Arabs took part in the voting, which effectively marginalizes the minority that has traditionally ruled modern Iraq and held a privileged position under Saddam, a Sunni. The commission said 8.5 million Iraqis, or 58 percent of registered voters, cast ballots in the Jan. 30 poll, Iraq's first multi-party election for half a century.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle....storyID=7611734

Edit: More detailed numbers in this article:

quote: The Shiite-dominated United Iraqi Alliance ticket received 4,075,295 votes, or about 48 percent of the total cast, Iraqi election officials said. The Kurdistan Alliance, a coalition of two main Kurdish factions, was second with 2,175,551 votes, or 26 percent, and the Iraqi List headed by the U.S.-backed Allawi finished third with 1,168,943 votes, or about 14 percent. Those three top finishers represent about 88 percent of the total, making them the main power brokers as the assembly chooses national leaders and writes a constitution. Of Iraq's 14 million eligible voters, 8,456,266 cast ballots for 111 candidate lists, the commission said. That represents a turnout of about 60 percent, several points higher than the predicted 57 percent.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c.../i064156S48.DTL

	13-02-2005 21:12									#2
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Hmm, to me, the most interesting question is if the Kurds become part of the government or not- if the Shia list decides to ally with others to form a mayority, it will make the issue of how much autonomy the Kurds get much more contientious. If the Kurds are in the government, then I would assume most of their demands would have to be met, if not all.

	13-02-2005 22:20									#3
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And now, the Shiites will democratically establish religious state

	13-02-2005 22:41									#4
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quote: Originally posted by Heresson And now, the Shiites will democratically establish religious state

Actually, the United Iraqi Alliance is a coalition of religious and secular Shiites.

quote: The leaders of the Shiite alliance have said the new Iraqi government, if they end up with enough votes to form it, will be headed by a secular figure. Fewer than a half dozen of the alliance's 228 candidates are clerics. And a likely alliance with the Kurdish parties, which are secular, could blunt the Islamists. Still, many Iraqis say Mr. Mahdi, secular-minded though he is, would be under fierce pressure from Iraq's clerical establishment to accord Islam an expansive role in the permanent Iraqi constitution the national assembly is to write this year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/10/i...t/10shiite.html

	13-02-2005 22:55									#5
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The Kurdish leader is Talabani.

	13-02-2005 23:22									#6
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This is all good news. Although it's pure speculation at this point, I expect a national unity government among the top three lists. Allawi's list might be the odd man out, though. The Kurds might ask for the presidency, even though it is only symbolic. I've heard that they don't think the Arabs will ever allow a Kurd president or prime minister, so this is a good test of the matter.

A government with ~72% support would be very good, and would keep some of the UIA factions in line.

	14-02-2005 01:47									#8
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i think that the other 52% should get together and form a coalition that doesnt include the UIA.

	14-02-2005 02:04									#9
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I wanna know how the commies did. I know we got at least 26%, since both Kurdish parties are communist.

	14-02-2005 03:37									#10
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I wanna know how the commies did. I know we got at least 26%, since both Kurdish parties are communist.

It is a pity to think of the past progress of communist parties in both Iraq and Iran and where they are at now

	14-02-2005 03:38									#11
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Was this far from what was expected?

	14-02-2005 04:18									#12
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quote: Iraq Election Officials Announce Final Results The Shiite religious list, known as the United Iraqi Alliance, received 48 percent of the votes, well below the 60 percent some had predicted. The alliance is likely to take about 132 of the 275 seats in the National Assembly, but will probably fall short of winning an outright majority. The second-largest bloc in the assembly will go to the main Kurdish alliance, which took 25 percent of the vote, good for about 70 seats. Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's group came in a distant third, with just under 14 percent and probably about 38 seats. The largest Sunni-Arab-led ticket, topped by Interim President Ghazi al-Yawar, came in fourth, with less than two percent of the votes. His group will probably take four or five seats in the assembly. Election officials will not say exactly how many seats each group has won, until the results are officially endorsed. There is a three-day window for complaints before the results become official. Election officials will then do a complicated series of calculations to determine how many seats each group will get. A preliminary analysis shows a total of 12 groups probably winning seats in the assembly, including an ethnic Turkmen party, the Communist party, a labor alliance, and a group of Assyrian Christians. The Shiite list is clearly in a dominant position, but it will need to forge an alliance with at least one other group before it can form a government. The prime minister and president need to be approved by two-thirds of the assembly members. The Kurds' strong second-place showing puts Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani in a good position to press for the largely ceremonial presidency. But there are several other possible alliances that could emerge, and behind-the-scenes negotiations have been underway for weeks, if not longer. ... Most major Sunni Arab groups boycotted the election, and in most of the country, Sunnis stayed away from the polls. Election officials say the voter turnout was only two percent in Sunni-dominated Anbar province, compared with 58 percent nationwide. The National Assembly's main job will be writing Iraq's new constitution.

Mu.

	14-02-2005 04:18									#13
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Unfortunately the capital of the country is in the middle of the area inhabited by the "marginalized" people.

	14-02-2005 05:18									#14
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From what I'd read, the Communists were expected to do quite well, taking as much as 20% in places like Basra.

	14-02-2005 06:39									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Dauphin The Kurdish leader is Talabani.

Talabani controls one of the two leading Kurdish parties each of which share almost 50-50 power in Iraqi Kurdistan.

	14-02-2005 06:50									#16
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I wanna know how the commies did. I know we got at least 26%, since both Kurdish parties are communist.

No, neither the KDP or the PUK are communist as both seek private ownership of land, factories, and resources. They are, however, socialist and nationalist at the same time and there platform consists of free public education through University level, nationwide health insurence, return of homes Saddam's government confiscated from Kurds, small business loans to jump start the economy, etc...

While in Iraq Kurdistan I often worked with the various political parties through their offices in Kirkuk including the Kurdish Communist party which had a small following in the area. Upwards of 90% of the population are militantly devoted to the PDK or PUK (the PUK is a splinter group of the KDP formed in 1975 after a failed uprising against Saddam) with around 20 other parties all chasing the remaining 10%.

	14-02-2005 09:00									#17
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From Cole:

quote: United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite): 133 seats Kurdish Alliance: 71 Iraqiya (Allawi = Secular Shiites) 38 Iraqiyyun (al-Yawir= Sunni Arabs) 5 Turkmen Front of Iraq 3 Cadres and the Chosen (Sadrist Shiites) 3 People's Union (Communist) 3 Kurdish Islamic Coalition 2 Organization of Islamic Action (Shiite) 2 Democratic National Alliance (Abd Faisal Ahmad) 1 National Mesopotamian List (Christian) 1 Welfare and Liberation Bloc (Mash'an al-Juburi, Sunni) 1 Caucus for Iraqi National Unity (Nahru Muhammad Abdul Karim, Sunni) 1 Independent Democrats (Adnan Pachachi, Sunni) 1 Iraqi Islamic Party (Muhsin Abdul Hamid, Sunni; had withdrawn) 1 Islamic Dawa Movement (splinter of Dawa, headed by Adil Majid) 1 Iraqi National Caucus (Husain Muhammad Abdullah) 1 Constitutional Monarchy Movement (Sharif Ali b. Husain) 1 Royal Iraqi Hashimi Caucus (Sharif Ma'mul al-Naysan) 1 National Democratic Alliance (Malik Duhan al-Hasan) 1 Democratic Iraqi Caucus (Ahmad Jabir Abdullah) 1 National Front for Iraqi Unity 1

Since a few percent of the votes went to small parties too insignificant to be represented, these seats will be reapportioned to the other parties, so the UIA may end up with 140/275 seats (50.5%) of the national assembly.
http://www.afp.com/english/newsml/s...3.wx8x3x83.html

Note that six of the non-UIA seats are definitely Shia Islamist (the Cadres and the Chosen, the Organization of Islamic Action, and the Islamic Da'wa Movement).

So, the UIA will be able to push most of what they want through the national assembly, though won't be able to dictate the PM, Pres, or Constitution.

	14-02-2005 10:06									#18
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That list of parties sounds quite Pythonesque.

	14-02-2005 10:10									#19
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What disturbs me is that people could actually vote for someone named Husain.

	14-02-2005 10:28									#20
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quote: Actually, the United Iraqi Alliance is a coalition of religious and secular Shiites.

No, it's generally Islamist, with a handful of guys who could really be considered secular (i.e. Chalabi). It's dominated by two Islamist parties, SCIRI and Da'wa.

quote: That list of parties sounds quite Pythonesque.

The scary thing is that those aren't parties, just party lists. The naming system gets a lot worse than that.

	14-02-2005 10:50									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: Actually, the United Iraqi Alliance is a coalition of religious and secular Shiites. No, it's generally Islamist, with a handful of guys who could really be considered secular (i.e. Chalabi). It's dominated by two Islamist parties, SCIRI and Da'wa. quote: That list of parties sounds quite Pythonesque. The scary thing is that those aren't parties, just party lists. The naming system gets a lot worse than that.

Right, a lot of those lists are coalitions of parties (the Kurd list is 50/50 between two parties and the UIA is a big grab bag but mostly the Islamis SCIRI and Da'wa like Ramo said).

	14-02-2005 10:51									#22
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Don't want to bother with links (there was a WaPo article about Provincial results that I can't be arsed to find), but what I've heard from provincial elections are interesting:

1. Kirkuk's gov't will be dominated by Kurds. This will be a bargaining chip for the Kurds in negotiating the boundaries for a Kurdistan province. This also may accelerate the emigration of Arabs/immigration of Kurds to the city. Note that the oil fields around Kirkuk are sharply contested.

2. SCIRI has generally done better than Da'wa. This is interesting because Da'wa is the home-grown Islamist movement, while SCIRI is the exile movement (with stronger connections to Iran, incidentally). The importance of incumbent power, I suppose (since we favored exiles from the beginning, SCIRI got a big boost). It's an interesting contrast to how the much more prominent incumbency of the INA (Allawi's Party, the main party in the Iraqi list) utterly failed in bringing in votes (despite his bribes to journalists. etc.). Perhaps that's more a commentary on the failure of Allawi than the success of SCIRI?

3. The Shia Islamists have done very well provincially. Probably better than they're doing nationally. It's interesting that Sadrists have made strong showings in the South, especially in Wasit (where Kut is) where they won a majority. There'll be interesting Constitutional questions coming up relating to this, i.e. will there be a federative structure that permits Wasit to implement a more directly clerical (Iran-like) gov't that Sadr favors?

Edit: I say "generally" way too much.

Last edited by Ramo on 14-02-2005 at 10:58

	14-02-2005 20:22									#23
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quote: The United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite alliance backed by Shiite Muslim clergy): 4,075,295 about 48 percent for 140 seats. The Kurdistan Alliance (coalition of two main Kurdish factions): 2,175,551 about 26 percent for 75 seats. The Iraqi List (headed by U.S.-backed interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi): 1,168,943 about 14 percent for 40 seats. Iraqis (headed by interim Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawer): 150,680 for five seats. The Turkomen Iraqi Front (represents ethnic Turks): 93,480 for three seats. National Independent Elites and Cadres Party: 69,938 for three seats. The Communist Party: 69,920 for two seats. The Islamic Kurdish Society: 60,592 for two seats. The Islamic Labor Movement in Iraq: 43,205 for two seats. The National Democratic Alliance: 36,795 for one seat. National Rafidain List (Assyrian Christians): 36,255 for one seat. The Reconciliation and Liberation Entity: 30,796 for one seat. Total votes: 8,550,571. Invalid votes: 94,305. Minimun number of votes to qualify for one seat: 30,750. Source: Iraq's election commission.

http://www.boston.com/dailynews/045...s_that_w:.shtml

Why didn't the invalid votes getting any seats?

	14-02-2005 22:10									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Dr Strangelove Unfortunately the capital of the country is in the middle of the area inhabited by the "marginalized" people.

southeastern corner actually, although there is a part of Babil province se of Baghdad that is mixed Sunni-shia.

	14-02-2005 22:12									#25
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara From what I'd read, the Communists were expected to do quite well, taking as much as 20% in places like Basra.

I had read that too - either it didnt pan out, or perhaps they did better in the provincial elections (held at the same time) than they did in the national election. Thats what seems to have happened with the Sadrists. Not an unreasonable voting strategy, to vote for the more "radical" parties locally, where they might run things cleaner, while being more cautious on the national level. This was not uncommon with CPs in med europe, for example.

	14-02-2005 22:15									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: Actually, the United Iraqi Alliance is a coalition of religious and secular Shiites. No, it's generally Islamist, with a handful of guys who could really be considered secular (i.e. Chalabi). It's dominated by two Islamist parties, SCIRI and Da'wa.

to clarify further, while Ramo is correct that the parties that dominate the UIA are heavily islamist - da'wa and SCIRI packing a lot more weight than the INC - its also true that a large number of candidates on the list were independent affiliated with none of the party organizations, eg Sharistani. Several of these, IIUC, were secular figures. Some were Sunnis.


Also worth noting - about one third of the national assemblyt is female.

	14-02-2005 22:18									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Edit: I say "generally" way too much.

"generally" is good - far better than the out of nowhere "all's" and "every's" and "none's" that some posters are fond of. This is a complex situation, and ackowledging that is a worthwhile humility, one I try to follow.

	14-02-2005 22:22									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Lord Nuclear What disturbs me is that people could actually vote for someone named Husain.

Um... it isn't exactly a rare name.

	14-02-2005 22:28									#29
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quote: National Front for Iraqi Unity 1

At least this party will speak with a unified voice.



********
But at least two things must be respected:
(1) That the vote went forward at all.
(2) That the majority party isn't going to use its political advantage to push a religious objective.

	15-02-2005 04:51									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Um... it isn't exactly a rare name.

I know that, I have a few friends with the name, but I still find it odd.