19-02-2005 01:40									#1
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quote: United Nations Distr.: General 2 September 2004 04-49892 (E) *0449892* Resolution 1559 (2004) Adopted by the Security Council at its 5028th meeting, on 2 September 2004 The Security Council, Recalling all its previous resolutions on Lebanon, in particular resolutions 425 (1978) and 426 (1978) of 19 March 1978, resolution 520 (1982) of 17 September 1982, and resolution 1553 (2004) of 29 July 2004 as well as the statements of its President on the situation in Lebanon, in particular the statement of 18 June 2000 (S/PRST/2000/21), Reiterating its strong support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Lebanon within its internationally recognized borders, Noting the determination of Lebanon to ensure the withdrawal of all nonLebanese forces from Lebanon, Gravely concerned at the continued presence of armed militias in Lebanon, which prevent the Lebanese Government from exercising its full sovereignty over all Lebanese territory, Reaffirming the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory, Mindful of the upcoming Lebanese presidential elections and underlining the importance of free and fair elections according to Lebanese constitutional rules devised without foreign interference or influence, 1.Reaffirms its call for the strict respect of the sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity, and political independence of Lebanon under the sole and exclusive authority of the Government of Lebanon throughout Lebanon; 2. Calls upon all remaining foreign forces to withdraw from Lebanon; 3. Calls for the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and nonLebanese militias; 4. Supports the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory; 5. Declares its support for a free and fair electoral process in Lebanon’s upcoming presidential election conducted according to Lebanese constitutional rules devised without foreign interference or influence; 6. Calls upon all parties concerned to cooperate fully and urgently with the Security Council for the full implementation of this and all relevant resolutions concerning the restoration of the territorial integrity, full sovereignty, and political independence of Lebanon; 7. Requests that the Secretary-General report to the Security Council within thirty days on the implementation by the parties of this resolution and decides to remain actively seized of the matter.

This combined with:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,147948,00.html

quote: The world has to make sure, Bush said, that Iraqi Baathists aren't being harbored in Syria, that the country not give safe haven for terrorist groups and that it abide by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, passed Feb. 9, which calls on Damascus to remove its troops from Lebanon.

So...Is this Bush beginning to make the case for War?

	19-02-2005 01:46									#2
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Nope, not based on this. Unlike UNSC Res 1441, which you may be thinking of, this doesnt mention serious consequences. There are also other serious legal differences between UNSC 1559 and the case on Iraq.

	19-02-2005 01:47									#3
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And our military is way to overextended as it is.

	19-02-2005 01:48									#4
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I have no doubt, that Bush would want to make war on Syria, but in realpolitik, it's just not doable.

Asmodean

	19-02-2005 01:49									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui And our military is way to overextended as it is.

yah, well, but theyre way to overextended dealing with the insurgency in Iraq. IF you beleive that said insurgency relies on funding, support etc from former regime elements based in Syria, .........

	19-02-2005 01:51									#6
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Frankly, I don't think that explanation is going to stick, even with Bush supporters.

	19-02-2005 01:52									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Frankly, I don't think that explanation is going to stick, even with Bush supporters.

oh please, those Lemmings would follow Bush off a cliff without question.

	19-02-2005 01:52									#8
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If moon was made out of cheese, we could win million dollars, EACH!

Making a move in Syria, or anywhere else right now would be so stupid I predict my head would explode.

	19-02-2005 01:53									#9
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Just give Sharon enough cookies and he'll clear out Syria for you.

	19-02-2005 01:56									#10
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Teh Reagan pulled out

	19-02-2005 01:57									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Frankly, I don't think that explanation is going to stick, even with Bush supporters.

Oh Im not saying a war with Syria is a good idea now - but I dont know that military overextension is the key issue, assuming youre planning on something punitive or "surgical" and NOT full fledged regime change and occupation. Folks seem to forget that we've often gone to war without trying to change regimes, etc. I didnt notice any US troops rebuilding Serbia, forex. IF we find proof that Syria IS materially supporting the insurgency, and IF threats dont get them to back off, I would think at some point we might have to take SOME military action.

	19-02-2005 01:58									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Just give Sharon enough cookies and he'll clear out Syria for you.

Sharon would eat the world after time passed it by... HE'S A LANGOLIER!

	19-02-2005 02:00									#13
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They just want to up the pressure on Syria in hopes the Syrians will finally end their occupation of Lebanon. It won't work but there is nothing to lose by trying. Even with another resolution the Euros won’t agree to sanctions.

	19-02-2005 02:03									#14
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If the "next target" even exists it has to be Iran. Whatever problems are caused by Syria, they are incomparable to a the threat of a nuclear Iran. So if the US has the available resources to go after another country, Iran is much much higher on the priority list than Syria.

	19-02-2005 02:11									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Eli If the "next target" even exists it has to be Iran. Whatever problems are caused by Syria, they are incomparable to a the threat of a nuclear Iran. So if the US has the available resources to go after another country, Iran is much much higher on the priority list than Syria.

If youre thinking broad war on terror terms. For the US right now though we're still bleeding in Iraq. And the US military and Iraqi offficials are increasingly saying the core of the insurgency is neither AQ types, nor disgruntled nationalists, but former regime elements. and ive seen numerous claims that their funding comes from leaders based in Syria. Thats the thing that the US is most urgent to pressure Syria to change, NOT Lebanon, and NOT Syrian support for Hamas.

	19-02-2005 02:18									#16
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I've seen moon made out of cheese. honest.

	19-02-2005 02:51									#17
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Nope, not based on this. Unlike UNSC Res 1441, which you may be thinking of, this doesnt mention serious consequences. There are also other serious legal differences between UNSC 1559 and the case on Iraq.

Definately agree LotM, but this could be the beginning of laying ground work in that direction. Once Iraq gets somewhat settled, the war machine has to go somewhere...

	19-02-2005 02:56									#18
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I'm not sure if it'll last long. Baby Assad has always been keen of appeasing the US. And the real threat comes from Iran, not Syria. The sabre-rattling will have is conjunctural, and will have no bearing on the future IMHO.

Unless the US can afford to go to war against Syria under the term of a hawk. in this case, this peace of paper will be all the "legality" the US will need, just like 1441 was all the "legality" the US needed for Iraq.

	19-02-2005 03:04									#19
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO Definately agree LotM, but this could be the beginning of laying ground work in that direction. Once Iraq gets somewhat settled, the war machine has to go somewhere...

no it doesnt.

And this is not laying the ground work. Again contra both you and Spiff, the legal situation wrt to UNSC 1559 is not comparable to that wrt Iraq.

The real laying the groundwork is the steady chorus of accusations about Syrian support for violence in Iraq. And THAT is not something that matters once Iraq settles down. IF, as Spiff says, Baby Assad appeases the US and clamps down on that, theres no good reason for the US to take on Syria any time soon. and probably not later either - the expectation is that once the Iranian regime falls, the Syrian regime will be facd with a new reality. Like Spiff, I see this as largely about leverage on Syria to improve its behavior.

	19-02-2005 03:50									#20
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At any rate, WHAT does the US have now to attack Syria or Iran with? I think that 9 out of 10 active duty brigades are deployed now, and additionally there are still major troop losses in Iraq. Syrian military might be outdated, but it would still not be easy to take down by airstrikes only, while invading Iran without a sizeable land force is not possible. So it's my understanding that the US doesn't simply have the resources to attack now, although it does seem clear that Bush wants to.

	19-02-2005 04:36									#21
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DAMN YOU lord of the mark.. I set you 2 traps and you're not biting . Well, more power to you. And more power to me too! Celebrate the power!

	19-02-2005 08:26									#22
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Pekka, the moon is made out of styrofoam.

	20-02-2005 07:18									#23
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If we keep invading countries over there the whole place is going to unite against us and we will end up pulling out with our tail between our legs. ****, it'll be a miracle if we can keep a hold of Iraq.

	20-02-2005 07:30									#24
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I doubt it. Lebanon isn't worth going to war over.

	20-02-2005 12:18									#25
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Yesterday on CNN, they said the US Army is now at 500,000 and a few. With 150,000 in Iraq, you have 350,000 left. With many of those all over the place. I don't know how many National Guard and Reserve we have.
Wait Rummy does not want overkill forces. He wants the Calvary, so they can move fast, securce nothing, just move fast. (Leave all the guns and ammo around so that everyone can be shooting at our guys just a few days after we declear we won).
It will be March in 9 days. So we will strike April 1, 2005.