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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:22
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For the first time that I can think of, a country is starting to experience a falling male population without some shock such as war, disease, natural disaster, etc. The labor force is already declining and from next year, the entire Japanese population is expected to begin a long decline.
Drake will have to curb his appetite for Japanese PYTs. 
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/9e10f6fc-8...000e2511c8.html
quote:
Japan’s population set to fall from next year
By David Pilling in Tokyo
Published: February 22 2005 08:59 | Last updated: February 22 2005 08:59
japan workersThe number of men in Japan shrank for the first time since records began, heralding fall in the overall population from next year.
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The decline in the number of men signals an historic shift in Japan's population, the aging of which is likely to have a profound influence on the country's pension system, labour market and tax base.
Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Tokyo's Temple university, said one recent study showed present-day retirees would extract a surplus of Y60m in pension payments above the amount they had paid into the system over their lifetime. Conversely, an average 20-year-old would receive Y40m less than he or she contributed.
If current trends continue, Japan's population will fall for the rest of the century, with the most severe estimates suggesting it could shrink by nearly two-thirds to 45m by 2100, the same level as in 1910 Meiji Japan.
According to statistics released on Tuesday by the ministry of internal affairs, the number of Japanese men fell nearly 9,000, or about 0.01 per cent, to 62.295m in the 12 months to October 1 last year.
Excluding the war years, when Japan suspended detailed classification of its population, that was the first time the male population declined since records began in 1920.
The population as a whole rose by just 0.05 per cent, or 67,000 to 127.687m, the smallest increase since 1950, and in any year with the exception of 1945 when numbers fell dramatically as a result of death in war.
Last year, the number of people aged 65 or older rose to a record high of 19.5 per cent of the whole population, while those under 14 fell to an all-time low of 13.9 per cent.
The labour force also continued to shrink. People aged between 15 and 64 fell 170,000.
An official at the ministry of internal affairs said the decline in male population was explained by the fact that more men had gone abroad for work. Figures showed that the number of Japanese men leaving the country exceeded those returning by 31,000.
That could reflect external factors such as the fading of Sars and terrorist attacks as disincentives to move abroad, officials said. It could also be a reaction to falling wages in Japan, which have been dropping continuously for seven years in spite of some economic growth.
Concerns about Japan's changing demographics are forcing legislative as well as social changes. The government last year implemented a pension reform that will steadily erode benefits while increasing premiums. It is also pushing business to extend the retirement age beyond 65, though in practice companies are offering early retirement to high earners in their 50s in order to cut wage bills.
Mr Kingston said that Japanese youth had lost faith in the pension system. Nearly 40 per cent of those over 20, including students, who should be paying into the national pension scheme for the self-employed and unemployed were refusing to contribute, he said.
Additional reporting by James Gregory |
Last edited by DanS on 22-02-2005 at 20:51
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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:22
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quote:
As if it was something new. Such decline is noticeable so early in Japan as its immigrant population is low, compared to Europe and the USA, where, for the huge replacement due to immigration from easter europe and muslim world/mexico and latin america, this trend cannot be noticed unless you make a specific research on the demographic trend of the "natural" population of Japan, Europe and USA, which is btw expected to collapse to -50% by 2050 unless replaced by mass foreign immigration |
Italy is in similar straits as Japan. Japan's population growth rate is 0.05% while Italy's is 0.09%. I wouldn't put the US in the same sentence as Japan and Italy, because the US is so different.
quote:
Remember why the Roman Empire collapsed? |
The Western Empire fell due to plague, among other things. It wasn't due to explicit choices by the masses. This explicit choice to have fewer children than is required for replacement over several generations appears to be the first of its type in history. Japan is the vanguard of this change.
Last edited by DanS on 22-02-2005 at 23:49
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Lul Thyme
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Quebec, Canada
Aug 2000
time: 05:22
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Some people didnt read or understand the text properly (title was misleading)...
there is no great gap between the female and male population in actual number or rate of change in Japan.
The actual 'problem' is population decline, its just that the actual threshold reached to justify the article was male population has negative growth...
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22-02-2005 20:44
I was thinking the same thing.
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