27-02-2005 00:53									#61
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at the moment we have infite power we can finally have infite rescources but then we DO have to push the research bar up to 70&

	27-02-2005 01:35									#62
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Soil isn't necessary- pot, among other things, are grown with hydroponics. That said, most food doesn't have a market price high enough to make hydroponics worthwhile...

DanS is correct that there are technical solutions to resource shortages, however, the market economy is not farsighted enough to prepare for them.

	27-02-2005 02:41									#63
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quote: Originally posted by el freako One interesting thing about the UN's World Population Prospects 2004 revision is that it has again sharply revised up it's forecasts of european population in 2050 - especially compared to the US (which has seen it's forecast population revised downwards). In the 2002 revision, by 2050 the US's population was forecast to be 39m more than the EU15's now it's forecast to be only 8m more. Since the 1998 revision Italy's forecast 2050 population has risen from 37m to 51m and Spain's from 32m to 43m

As the UN Population Division admits, immigration is tough for them to project. They use assumptions that may or may not be in the correct ballpark. For China, since it has so many people in comparison to other countries, immigration will not impact its total population to any great degree. For the US, fairly wide swings could occur due to immigration or lack of it.

	27-02-2005 02:43									#64
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quote: Originally posted by DanS As the UN Population Division admits, immigration is tough for them to project. They use assumptions that may or may not be in the correct ballpark. For China, since it has so many people in comparison to other countries, immigration will not impact its total population to any great degree. For the US, fairly wide swings could occur due to immigration or lack of it.

Great point.
Also, how many people are immigrating to China?

	27-02-2005 02:47									#65
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AIDS

	27-02-2005 03:07									#66
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quote: I think Dan's point is that modern civilization seems to have an infinite capability to work around resource limitations. If that is what he means then I agree with him. Though if I'm wrong and he thinks that a limitless supply of oil exists, then I completely disagree.

I'm making a broader point. Let's approach it this way. If there is a finite amount of oil, then you should be able to tell me how much there is. I can guarantee that you will be unable to come even within a half dozen orders of magnitude to the correct answer.

Now don't get me wrong. There will be a long list of experts who will be able to tell you the amount that is available "at hand" and makes sense to exploit at this moment, given current market conditions. That expert will also be able to give you a litany of good alternatives to oil, given assumed market conditions.

At this point, the only resource that is a hard and fast limitation for our species is human resources. We know within a fairly high degree of certainty how many people exist. But even human resource limitations are notional. Human beings can remain ignorant or be educated, they can desire to do something or live somewhat like a vegetable and post on Poly, etc.

	27-02-2005 03:08									#67
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quote: The oceans is an excellent example of why deregulation is nearsighted, it almost always causes a tragedy of the commons.

no, they didnt deregulate it properly. governments must come together to sell plots of sea where fisherman have exclusive rights to fish. the ocean is an excellent example of the govt not privatising.

	27-02-2005 03:35									#68
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I'm making a broader point. Let's approach it this way. If there is a finite amount of oil, then you should be able to tell me how much there is. I can guarantee that you will be unable to come even within a half dozen orders of magnitude to the correct answer.

If I claimed that there was currently 1,000,000 years supply of oil left at current usage rate, the only way I could be out by 6 orders of magnitude is if the supply was less than 1 year (which we know is not true) or over 1,000,000,000,000 years (which is also not true)

Yes, I am being facetious, but with reason.

	27-02-2005 03:44									#69
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia governments must come together to sell plots of sea where fisherman have exclusive rights to fish.

It's unenforcable. It's also stupid, since fish don't recognize borders. In fact, carving the oceans up would given fisheries ann even greate incentive to destroy stocks, since they'd wnat to get every last fish before it went over the border.

	27-02-2005 03:49									#70
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quote: or over 1,000,000,000,000 years (which is also not true)

How do you know it's not true?

	27-02-2005 03:57									#71
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quote: It's unenforcable. It's also stupid, since fish don't recognize borders. In fact, carving the oceans up would given fisheries ann even greate incentive to destroy stocks, since they'd wnat to get every last fish before it went over the border.

1. its enforcable - private companies would patrol their waters.
2. is invalid. thats whats happening right now. privatising means they will not fish them all because they want the same amount or more to come back next year.
3. you need the make the borders big enough.

	27-02-2005 04:04									#72
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quote: Originally posted by DanS How do you know it's not true?

It would require about 20% of the Earth to be oil?


Current oil usage:

20 million barrels a day in the US =
7,300 million barrels a year in the US =
306,000 million gallons a year in the US =
1,116,000 million litres a year in the US =
1,116,000 million kilograms in the US

Scale up by 1,000,000,000,000 =
1,116,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 kg

Mass of Earth:
6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 kg

	27-02-2005 04:11									#73
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And there are some 400 billion star systems (+/- 200 billion star systems) in our galaxy alone.

OK, so that might be too much of a "thought exercise" for some people. But with our current technology, every part of our solar system is within striking distance for resources that are truly necessary. No Buck Rogers technology required.

	27-02-2005 04:15									#74
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yeah ok, thats a bit of a stretch dont you think? because you need life for oil.

	27-02-2005 04:15									#75
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I think you need to come down to Earth Dan.

	27-02-2005 04:18									#76
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Bah. You lack imagination.

The point is that if something were truly necessary for human existence, we could beat a path to where it exists, if we don't have enough of it.

In the case of oil, we would just switch to nuke power well before we needed additional oil that much.

	27-02-2005 04:22									#77
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quote: yeah ok, thats a bit of a stretch dont you think? because you need life for oil.

That's why I can guarantee that he cannot know. We don't know the prevalence of life in our solar system, let alone galaxy or universe.

I could not have guaranteed it for many resources, btw.

	27-02-2005 04:28									#78
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'IN our present era' all of that hypothetical oil will be of no use to us anyway, so you make a moot, but amusing, point re galactic reserves.

	27-02-2005 04:30									#79
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...as is the handwringing for our existence without all of these resources. People will say that we have x years of supply of oil left, which elicits one big yawn from me. We'll just use different things.

	27-02-2005 04:33									#80
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quote: Originally posted by DanS And there are some 400 billion star systems (+/- 200 billion star systems) in our galaxy alone.

They may as well not exist if FtL isn't feasable.

	27-02-2005 04:35									#81
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quote: Originally posted by DanS ...as is the handwringing for our existence without all of these resources. People will say that we have x years of supply of oil left, which elicits one big yawn from me. We'll just use different things.

That we will, but then that was never my point of contention.

	27-02-2005 04:36									#82
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quote: But with our current technology, every part of our solar system is within striking distance for resources that are truly necessary. No Buck Rogers technology required.

and i disagree with this too. none of todays shuttles can even make it to the moon. we use 20 million barrels a day, theres no way we can transport that much from another plante to the US at less than $50 a barrel, and at anywhere near the quantity to supply even just america.

	27-02-2005 04:42									#83
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quote: but then that was never my point of contention

What exactly was your point of contention?

	27-02-2005 04:50									#84
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quote: and i disagree with this too. none of todays shuttles can even make it to the moon. we use 20 million barrels a day, theres no way we can transport that much from another plante to the US at less than $50 a barrel, and at anywhere near the quantity to supply even just america.

I never said that it would make sense to do this as an economic matter, only that it could be done, if absolutely necessary.

Right now, Hall effect and ion thrusters powered by fission reactors have pretty extreme fuel efficiency -- more than 10x the effeciency of chemical propulsion methods. They take a long while to accelerate and decelerate, but are effective.

	27-02-2005 04:58									#85
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quote: I never said that it would make sense to do this as an economic matter, only that it could be done, if absolutely necessary.

no, not even then. we couldnt get 20 million barrels a day from somewhere else. not even 10 million barrels with the tech that we have now.

quote: , Hall effect and ion thrusters powered by fission reactors have pretty extreme fuel efficiency -- more than 10x the effeciency of chemical propulsion methods. They take a long while to accelerate and decelerate, but are effective.

and on what spaceship are these guys on?

	27-02-2005 05:02									#86
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quote: and on what spaceship are these guys on?

On most new commercial satellites. The tech for HETs has been in use for about 30 - 35 years.

quote: we couldnt get 20 million barrels a day from somewhere else. not even 10 million barrels with the tech that we have now.

If it were on an asteroid and we were patient, sure we could. Not sure why we would want to, but...

	27-02-2005 05:21									#87
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quote: If it were on Mars, sure we could. Not sure why we would want to, but...

theres no way. theres what, 40 gallons of oil per barrel? water is 8.3 lbs/ gallon, lets estimate oil = 10 lbs/ gallon. 10 million barrels a day, that makes out to be 4 billion lbs. 2200 lbs per ton, thats 1818181 tons of goods. todays spaceshuttles carry 10 tons of goods up. thats 181,819 spaceshuttle trips per day.

on top of that you need facilities on both ends for launching/ landing.

quote: If it were on Mars, sure we could. Not sure why we would want to, but...

dont change your argument now. you said there are infinite amount of resources, and there will be some on the planets, and since we can easily get to them, thats why we will go there, and get it, and that its not inconcievable.

well it is. weve got finite resources.

	27-02-2005 05:24									#88
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Oil's lighter than water, hence the floating.

	27-02-2005 05:27									#89
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quote: If it were on an asteroid and we were patient, sure we could

10 million a day? theres no asteroid big enough and close enough.

	27-02-2005 05:45									#90
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I didn't use the word "easily," but it's not inconceivable.

quote: theres what, 40 gallons of oil per barrel? water is 8.3 lbs/ gallon, lets estimate oil = 10 lbs/ gallon. 10 million barrels a day, that makes out to be 4 billion lbs. 2200 lbs per ton, thats 1818181 tons of goods. todays spaceshuttles carry 10 tons of goods up. thats 181,819 spaceshuttle trips per day.

You really are going to argue this?

Forget the spaceshuttles. Mars has a gravity well a fraction of Earth's. We don't even need rigid spaceships upon launch. We have an atmosphere to slow the spaceship down on Earth entry. Only a small ablative heat shield is required.