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Eli is offline Eli
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Israel
Jul 2000
time: 07:22
  Old Post 26-02-2005 21:21
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Just in : Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility.

GePap is offline GePap
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  Old Post 26-02-2005 22:20
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Color me NOT surprised.

So lets see just how much Abbas does vs Islamic Jihad.

Agathon is offline Agathon
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  Old Post 26-02-2005 23:05
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How much can he actually do.

Arafat was constantly being blamed for doing nothing, even though he was a virtual prisoner at the time.

I doubt Abbas has much control over IJ, although Hamas seems to be holding to the ceasefire.

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  Old Post 26-02-2005 23:57
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Abbas has , or at least is moving to, consolidate the PA security forces, so at the least, he can begin arresting people known to be IJ militants. They did arrest two, and should arrest more.

At the least the PA needs to arrest peopl who are clearly militants and stick them in jails (better than having Israelis kill them, no?).

The Mad Monk is offline The Mad Monk
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  Old Post 27-02-2005 02:28
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


I am sure Foreign Ministry spokemen would honestly believe Hezbollah must have been involved, somehow, if the sun did not come up. After all, they are THE great enemy right now.


They have been firing rockets into northern Israel for how many years, now?

The Emperor Fabulous is offline The Emperor Fabulous
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  Old Post 27-02-2005 02:42
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Israel has accused Syria of being behind the attacks, along with IJ.

They have also declared that, while the cease-fire still stands with the Palestinians, that it no longer includes IJ.

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  Old Post 27-02-2005 02:44
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quote:
Israelis, Palestinians make arrests over bombing

Sat February 26, 2005 1:32 PM GMT+02:00

By Muin Shadid

DEIR AL-GHOSON, West Bank (Reuters) - Israeli and Palestinian forces arrested eight men on Saturday over a suicide bombing at a Tel Aviv nightclub that killed four Israelis and endangered Middle East peacemaking efforts, witnesses said.

In some of the strongest Palestinian condemnation of an attack during more than four years of bloodshed, President Mahmoud Abbas called the bombers "terrorists" and blamed outsiders opposed to his two-week-old ceasefire with Israel.

"We will bring them to justice. We will not allow anyone to sabotage the ambitions of our people," Abbas told reporters.

The bombing late on Friday shattered several weeks of calm after a de facto truce by militants, who have yet to formalise the ceasefire agreed between Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon at a groundbreaking February 8 summit.

Ambulances rushed to the popular karaoke club in a scene of flashing lights and blood-stained pavement that many Israelis had begun to believe they had put behind them. Pieces of flesh were sprayed on parked cars.

Hospital officials said the bomber killed at least four people and some 50 were wounded.

Israeli troops pushed into the West Bank village of Deir al-Ghoson before dawn, grabbing five men, including two brothers of the suspected bomber. Palestinian forces later picked up three men believed to have links to Islamic militants.

Israeli officials said the bombing proved that the Palestinian strategy of trying to win over the militants to ratify the truce had failed and tougher action was needed.

"Words are not enough. We must see action," said Gideon Meir of Israel's Foreign Ministry. "We must see arrests, collecting illegal weapons from those terrorist organisations ... The only language they understand is force."

A 25-nation conference in London this week is due to look at ways to help Palestinians improve security forces and build Israeli confidence in their ability to prevent attacks.

SUSPICIONS OF OUTSIDE INVOLVEMENT

Sharon was to weigh Israel's response to the bombing at a meeting with security chiefs on Saturday.

Responsibility for the attack, the first suicide bombing in Israel in nearly four months, remained unclear.

A cell of the militant Islamic Jihad group in the West Bank claimed the attack, but the faction's leadership in the Gaza Strip denied any knowledge and said it would continue to maintain calm. Other mainstream groups also denied any role.

Israeli media said Lebanese Hizbollah guerrillas, who have recently come under Palestinian suspicion, may have had a hand in the bombing to try to stop peace efforts. There was no immediate comment from the Iranian-backed group.

Abbas said "there is a third party which wants to sabotage this process" but did not point a finger directly at Hizbollah.

The family in Deir al-Ghoson announced through loudspeakers that Abdullah Shelbayeh "had carried out a martyrdom operation". But there was little sign of the celebration that often followed bombings.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanded that Palestinian leaders find those responsible and "send a clear message that terror will not be tolerated".

Washington has stepped up efforts to revive the peace process after Abbas was elected to succeed late President Yasser Arafat with a pledge of non-violence.

Abbas has hoped to win over the militants to his ceasefire rather than use force to rein them in.

"For more than two months there was calm and quiet and the Palestinians enjoyed this as well," said taxi driver Eli Yehezkel amid the debris in Tel Aviv. "Now we are back to checkpoints and a process of bloodletting."

Palestinian militant factions have said they are still not satisfied with Israeli gestures meant to build confidence -- such as the release of 500 out of 8,000 prisoners and an end to army raids and assassinations.

The groups also want a more sweeping Israeli pullback from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, which is slated to begin on July 20.


http://www.reuters.co.za/locales/c_...storyID=7747063

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  Old Post 27-02-2005 06:52
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quote:
Originally posted by The Mad Monk


They have been firing rockets into northern Israel for how many years, now?


Well, Not for the past 4 at least, so, currently none.

There are generally two types of incident on the border- a flareup in the Cheeba Farm region, or Hezbollah shoots AA fire at overflying Israeli planes and the shells come down in Northern Israel.

Eli is offline Eli
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  Old Post 27-02-2005 10:32
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There will be no major military actions, but the assasinations are back(only against the IJ).

The Mad Monk is offline The Mad Monk
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


Well, Not for the past 4 at least, so, currently none.

There are generally two types of incident on the border- a flareup in the Cheeba Farm region, or Hezbollah shoots AA fire at overflying Israeli planes and the shells come down in Northern Israel.


quote:
Report of the Secretary-General on the UN Interim Force in Lebanon

United Nations S/2005/36

Security Council Distr.: General

20 January 2005

Original: English

05-21076 (E) 190105 *0521076*

Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon

(for the period from 21 July 2004 to 20 January 2005)

www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=S/2005/36

I. Introduction

1. The present report is submitted pursuant to Security Council resolution 1553 (2004) of 29 July 2004, by which the Council extended the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) for a further period of six months, until 31 January 2005. It covers developments since the issuance of my previous report,dated 21 July 2004 (S/2004/572). II. Situation in the area of operation

2. During the reporting period, a relatively quiet but tense situation prevailed in the UNIFIL area of operation. Until this month, there had been a notable absence of armed exchanges between Hizbollah and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), including in the Shab'a farms area. This quiet was decisively shattered, however, by a Hizbollah roadside bomb attack on an IDF convoy in the Shab'a farms area on 9 January, which killed an IDF soldier and wounded three others. The ensuing military reaction by IDF resulted in the death of a United Nations military observer and the injury of another.

3. Over the past six months there have also been two serious violations of the Blue Line involving rocket fire by unidentified, presumably Palestinian, armed elements operating from southern Lebanon, but no casualties resulted. Israeli air incursions into Lebanese airspace continued throughout the reporting period with little change and, in a new development, on one occasion Hizbollah launched a remotely piloted aerial vehicle, or drone, that penetrated Israeli airspace. There were, however, no instances of Hizbollah anti-aircraft fire across the line.

4. The grave incident that took place on 9 January occurred when a Hizbollah roadside explosive device was detonated as an IDF convoy was passing on patrol one kilometre south of the Blue Line in the Shab'a farms area. The first vehicle in the convoy was hit and an IDF soldier was killed and three others wounded. Several minutes later, two United Nations military observers and one Lebanese interpreter from Observer Group Lebanon, on patrol north of the Blue Line in the same vicinity, came under IDF tank and machine gun fire. One United Nations observer, a French national, was killed and another, a Swedish national, was injured. The observers were on foot and wearing the United Nations insignia and blue berets.

5. IDF retaliation for the Hizbollah attack continued with artillery and small-arms fire directed at a Hizbollah position in the vicinity of Hula, followed by artillery shelling south of Kafr Shuba. Another artillery shell and four anti-tank rounds were fired by IDF towards Fatima gate, near Metulla, and a total of 14 aerial bombs were dropped near Kafr Kila, Ghajar and Shab'a. Hizbollah claimed one fighter killed and one wounded. In taking responsibility for the attack on the IDF convoy, Hizbollah said it was continuing its fight "to liberate" the Shab'a farms.

6. Following those events, on 17 January another Hizbollah roadside bomb exploded on the Israeli side of the Blue Line and damaged an IDF demining vehicle sent to clear any remaining explosive devices in the same area of the Shab'a farms.

There were no casualties. IDF immediately launched a series of artillery shells into Lebanon around Kafr Shuba and dropped five aerial bombs on suspected Hizbollah positions near Al Hinniya and in the general area of Frum. Two Lebanese civilians were wounded.

7. My Personal Representative for Southern Lebanon and I condemned the military escalation and emphasized the need for restraint. I also underscored the obligation of both sides to ensure the safety and security of United Nations personnel in the area.

8. Earlier in the reporting period, perpetrators yet to be apprehended though generally believed to be Palestinian militants fired rockets on three separate occasions. On 9 October one rocket was fired from near Yarun in the general direction of Israel. The rocket malfunctioned and landed on the Lebanese side of the Blue Line. On 28 October a rocket was fired from the general area of Alma Ash Shab, which did cross the line. It landed in Israeli territory in an open field in the vicinity of Shlomi. On 15 November another rocket fired from Lebanon crossed the line and again landed near Shlomi.

9. There were no casualties or property damage reported as a result of those rocket-firing incidents. UNIFIL was able to quickly establish contact with IDF and Lebanese army authorities to aid in clarifying the situation and in reducing tensions that could well have led to escalation. IDF acted with restraint and did not respond militarily to any of the attacks. The Lebanese authorities took a public position against such attacks and pledged to take steps to prevent them.

10. Israeli air incursions into Lebanon continued throughout the reporting period. Such violations of the line occurred sporadically, but sometimes they involved a considerable number of aircraft. Israeli officials maintained the position that there would be overflights whenever they deemed them necessary. As in the past, the aircraft often penetrated deep into Lebanon, generating sonic booms over populated areas. The pattern identified in my previous reports continued, whereby some aircraft would fly out to sea and enter Lebanese airspace north of the UNIFIL area of operation, thus avoiding direct observation and verification by UNIFIL.

11. There were no instances of Hizbollah anti-aircraft fire across the Blue Line. However, on 7 November a drone launched from Lebanon crossed into Israel and flew over the town of Shlomi before re-entering southern Lebanon. The drone then fell into the sea near Naqoura. Hizbollah announced that it had operated the drone in response to Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and claimed that it would do so again as circumstances warranted.

12. My senior representatives in the region and I, as well as concerned Member States, called repeatedly upon the Governments of Israel and Lebanon to cease violations of the Blue Line and to refrain from actions that carried significant potential for escalation. We also continued to remind the parties that one violation did not justify another.

13. UNIFIL recorded a number of minor ground violations of the line, primarily by Lebanese shepherds and the rare hunter in the Shab'a farms and Ghajar areas. The violations involving the shepherds became an almost daily routine. The risk that they could lead to more serious incidents was demonstrated when, on several occasions, IDF fired shots in the air to warn the shepherds away. On one occasion, after two Lebanese civilians had reportedly attempted to damage the technical fence, IDF fired shots that hit their vehicle. There were also a few instances of IDF firing small and medium-sized arms and illumination rounds across the line, particularly at night in the Shab'a farms area.

14. In separate occurrences, five Lebanese nationals were apprehended by IDF after having crossed the Blue Line. Following brief interrogations, IDF turned each over to UNIFIL, which in turn handed them over to the Lebanese authorities.

15. Demonstrators on the Lebanese side of the Blue Line gathered periodically at the points of friction identified in my previous reports, Sheikh Abbad Hill east of Hula and Fatima gate west of Metulla, as well as several times at the north gate at Kafr Kila. The protestors, generally in small groups, irregularly threw stones and other objects at IDF positions.

16. The Lebanese Joint Security Force and the Lebanese Army continued to operate in the areas vacated by Israel four years ago. The strength and activity of the Joint Security Force generally remained the same, apart from an increase in operations and a more visible presence in the aftermath of the firing incidents described above. The Government of Lebanon continued to maintain the position that, so long as there was no comprehensive peace with Israel, Lebanese armed forces would not be deployed along the line of withdrawal.

17. Under those circumstances, Hizbollah maintained its visible presence near the Blue Line through a network of mobile checkpoints, fixed positions and patrols. Hizbollah established several new positions and observation points. On the whole, Hizbollah refrained from interfering with the mission's freedom of movement. Occasional temporary denials of access to UNIFIL patrols were quickly rectified and have declined overall.

18. UNIFIL provided assistance to the Lebanese civilian population in the form of medical care, water projects, equipment or services for schools and orphanages and supplied social services to the needy. UNIFIL assistance was provided from resources made available primarily by troop-contributing countries. UNIFIL cooperated closely on humanitarian matters with the Lebanese authorities, United Nations agencies, in particular the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia and the United Nations Children's Fund, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other organizations and agencies operating in Lebanon.

19. The presence of a large number of minefields in the UNIFIL area of operation, which are now largely concentrated along the Blue Line owing to comprehensive demining in other sectors, remained a matter of serious concern. Since July one Lebanese civilian has been killed and one injured as a result of exploding mines. UNIFIL continued its operational demining activities, demolishing more than 100 mines and pieces of unexploded ordnance and clearing nearly 20,000 square metres of land. UNIFIL also regularly provided mine-risk education to local schoolchildren.

20. As a direct result of the success of the ongoing demining efforts in southern Lebanon, many of the previously landmine-afflicted areas are now cultivated or planted or otherwise benefit from increased access and development opportunities. While more remains to be done, the bulk of the landmines posing a direct humanitarian threat south of the Litani River have been cleared. The notable exception is the area adjacent to the Blue Line, where political and military obstacles to demining have impeded progress.

21. My Personal Representative continued to work in close collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and other United Nations agencies in advocating for socio-economic needs and facilitating the funding and implementation of development projects in the south. UNDP continued to lead the efforts of the United Nations system in working with the Lebanese authorities for the development and rehabilitation of the south.

III. Organizational matters

22. UNIFIL operations were concentrated along the Blue Line. The Force remained focused on maintaining the ceasefire through ground and air patrols of its area of operation, observation from fixed positions and close contact with the parties, the latter with a view to correcting violations, resolving incidents and preventing escalation. The United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), through Observer Group Lebanon, supported UNIFIL in the fulfilment of its mandate.

23. As at 31 December 2004, UNIFIL comprised 2,001 troops, from France (204), Ghana (652), India (650), Ireland (5), Italy (54), Poland (238) and Ukraine (198). UNIFIL was assisted in its tasks by 51 military observers of UNTSO. A map showing the current deployment of UNIFIL is attached. In addition, UNIFIL employed 407 civilian staff, of whom 104 had been recruited internationally and 303 locally. Major General Alain Pellegrini continued as Force Commander. Staffan de Mistura continued to act as my Personal Representative for Southern Lebanon.

24. I regret to report the death of one member of UNIFIL, a Ghanaian soldier who was killed in a traffic accident, the death of a French member of Observer Group Lebanon and the wounding of a Swedish member of Observer Group Lebanon in the firing incident of 9 January. Since the establishment of UNIFIL, 246 members of the Force have lost their lives, 79 as a result of firing or bomb explosions, 105 as a result of accidents and 62 from other causes. Firing or mine explosions wounded a total of 345.

IV. Financial aspects

25. By its resolution 58/307 of 18 June 2004, the General Assembly appropriated to the Special Account for UNIFIL the amount of $93 million gross, equivalent to a monthly rate of $7.7 million, for the maintenance of the Force for the period from 1 July 2004 to 30 June 2005. Should the Security Council decide to extend the mandate of UNIFIL beyond 31 January 2005, as recommended in paragraph 36 below, the cost of its maintenance would be limited to the amounts approved by the Assembly.

26. As at 30 November 2004, unpaid assessments to the special account for UNIFIL for the period since its inception amounted to $47.1 million. The total outstanding assessed contributions for all peacekeeping operations at that date amounted to $2,299.3 million.

V. Observations

27. Over the past six months, the Blue Line has enjoyed a prolonged period of relative quiet. I had hoped that this situation would present an opportunity for achieving progress towards the objective of bringing international peace and security to southern Lebanon. But as has been demonstrated more than once over the past four years and unfortunately again this month, significant periods of quiet along the Blue Line are often followed by several episodes of hostilities. Furthermore, while violent incidents were considerably fewer than during the previous reporting period, tensions between the parties did not at any point appreciably diminish. Hostile rhetoric remained the norm and stability continued to be threatened, most dramatically by the incidents of 9 and 17 January, but also by rogue acts and, for the first time, air incursions from both sides.

28. The resumption of military measures, for which Hizbollah took credit, asserting its claimed prerogative to resist Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory by force, was disturbing. The United Nations has made abundantly clear that no violations of the Blue Line are acceptable. The continually asserted position of the Government of Lebanon that the Blue Line is not valid in the Shab'a farms area is not compatible with Security Council resolutions. The Council has recognized the Blue Line as valid for purposes of confirming Israel's withdrawal pursuant to resolution 425 (1978). The Government of Lebanon should heed the Council's repeated calls for the parties to respect the Blue Line in its entirety.

29. I was greatly troubled by the disregard shown for the safety and security of the unarmed United Nations military observers evidenced by the actions of IDF on 9 January. UNIFIL established without a doubt that the observers were wearing the United Nations insignia and their blue berets. While military necessity may demand prompt action in the face of an attack, the parties, in living up to their obligation to ensure the safety and security of United Nations personnel, should make every reasonable effort to be certain that United Nations personnel are not targeted.

...



http://www.kokhavivpublications.com...0501211352.html

The end of the document had to be removed due to the text limit. It may be read at the above link.

I'm not making any comment on who started what happened above, but clearly Hezbollah has not been quiet.

GePap is offline GePap
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  Old Post 28-02-2005 21:20
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Yes, as My very post indicated, and you document backs up, the continue doing stuff in the Shaba farm area- which Hezbullah claims to be Lebanese territory and Israel with UN support states is occupied Syrian territory. Sysia backs Hezbulah's claim.

And as your very document state, Pals, not Hezbullah,. are blamed for the couple of rockets.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 28-02-2005 21:25
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apparently the IJ in Damascus claimed responsibility, while IJ in Gaza did not. Look for some complex discussions of the relations of IJ Gaza to IJ Damascus, and of how much Abbas should be expected to do.

IIIUC Israel is primarily tying this to damascus, and Syrian govt backing, more than to IJ in Gaza. And they have intell theyre sharing with Euros, among others.

I see this in context of todays demonstrations in Beirut, and the turnover of Iraqi Baathist leaders by Syria to the Iraqi govt. Syria is under pressure - they may be making some concessions in response, but some elements in Syria may want to foil these concessions.

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  Old Post 28-02-2005 21:49
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Does anyone really care about this thread jack? GePap jumped the gun wrt his comments regarding the Israelis desire to blame hezbollah as Eli showed earlier. Is there any real reason to continue discussing it?

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  Old Post 28-02-2005 21:54
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Most immediate Q about Hezb now is which way they will jump in the Lebanese crisis.

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  Old Post 28-02-2005 22:39
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quote:
Originally posted by DinoDoc
Does anyone really care about this thread jack? GePap jumped the gun wrt his comments regarding the Israelis desire to blame hezbollah as Eli showed earlier. Is there any real reason to continue discussing it?


I jumped the gun?

The gun was jmpued in the OP by Siro when he blamed Hezbullah- I said, no proof has been provided... and guess what! None was, cause it wasn't them.

Now, if you care so little for the thread, leave.

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  Old Post 28-02-2005 23:20
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The Lebanese govt has just resigned.

Note, at this point its the PM and his cabinet - not President Lahoud.

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quote:
Originally posted by Eli
There will be no major military actions, but the assasinations are back(only against the IJ).


There goes the peace agrement. Not that I'm surprised.

Az is offline Az
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  Old Post 01-03-2005 02:25
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urrr..... what peace agreement?

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  Old Post 01-03-2005 02:33
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Why would the head of state resign.

When will we get the first statements about the investigation of the assasination, by the way?

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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
Why would the head of state resign.


Constitutionally - Im not sure. ISTR that the pres in lebanon is chosen by the parliament, but for a fixed term. He was chosen again for a third term, against the Lebanon constitution, under Syrian pressure. A different kettle of fish from the head of govt.

Politically - cause there are tens of thousands of Lebanese in the street, many of whom are calling for him to resign. And the Lebanese army/police seem to be reluctant to go after the protestors, or are sympathetic from press reports ive seen. In that case Lahoud would do well to consider what course of action assures his personal safety.

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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
Politically - cause there are tens of thousands of Lebanese in the street, many of whom are calling for him to resign. And the Lebanese army/police seem to be reluctant to go after the protestors, or are sympathetic from press reports ive seen. In that case Lahoud would do well to consider what course of action assures his personal safety.


OOH, etns of thousands- in Venezuela Chavez rode out a coup attempt and 100,00s of thousands.

As for your second part - so you think decension in the ranks might lead to something? Why? Violence by the opposition would justify continued Syrian involvement.

Oh, and anyone know when the investigations going on will yield any results?

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quote:
Originally posted by GePap


OOH, etns of thousands- in Venezuela Chavez rode out a coup attempt and 100,00s of thousands.

As for your second part - so you think decension in the ranks might lead to something? Why? Violence by the opposition would justify continued Syrian involvement.

Oh, and anyone know when the investigations going on will yield any results?


Chavez has a very powerful base in Venezualan society - the mass of the poor - probably a majority (albeit slim) of the venezualan people. I see no evidence that Lahoud has that kind of support - its not JUST a demonstration, its the movement of the several key groups in Lebanon against Lahoud and the Syrians - the demos cap it, and are the visible edge to it.

Why would dissent in the security forces matter? Cause that makes it much harder to maintain order. Look at sitautions from Romania in 1989 to the Phillipines to Ukraine - when you lose the security forces danger increases. Can Syria substitute its own forces? They have 15,000 troops in Lebanon - is that enough to keep the lid on? They could send more in, I suppose, but i dont this the ideal time to do that, in terms of Syrias international standing.

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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
Chavez has a very powerful base in Venezualan society - the mass of the poor - probably a majority (albeit slim) of the venezualan people. I see no evidence that Lahoud has that kind of support - its not JUST a demonstration, its the movement of the several key groups in Lebanon against Lahoud and the Syrians - the demos cap it, and are the visible edge to it.


Well, that is the thing, just how much support does the OTHER side have- cause the other side is not just Syria, its many Lebanese as well. You say several key groups- do these key groups represent all of Lebanse society? Or are there any secotrs of Lebanese society being left out?

quote:

Why would dissent in the security forces matter? Cause that makes it much harder to maintain order. Look at sitautions from Romania in 1989 to the Phillipines to Ukraine - when you lose the security forces danger increases. Can Syria substitute its own forces? They have 15,000 troops in Lebanon - is that enough to keep the lid on? They could send more in, I suppose, but i dont this the ideal time to do that, in terms of Syrias international standing.


There is a difference between the police forces not taking on demostrators, and the security forces helping an overthrow, specially in a place liek Lebanon.

Again, Lebanon is a place of many different groups- are all spectrums of society represented by the opposition, or just some? In this Venezuela IS a good example- the opposition could claim they had HUGE national support with them- after all, look at their protests. Unfortunatelly, they missed the ideas of the millions NOT marching. So, what does you man on the street not taking part in these protests (say, 99% of Lebanese) think?

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
Emperor
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:22
  Old Post 01-03-2005 03:29
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From what I have read the Christians, Sunni muslims and the Druze want the Syrians out. Or at least the leaders do. Mainly. Havent heard from the Shia Muslims - thats why its so interesting to see what Hezb does - they seem to be one of the last heavily pro-Syrian factions - OTOH staying that way isolates them and weakens their prospects IF Syria does leave. And then there the Pals - whose politics WITHIN Lebanon is rather Byzantine, IIUC.

Im not saying its all done, or that the outcome is certain - but from here the Syrians' hand looks weak - certainly MUCH worse than it looked four weeks ago.

I started by pointing out that Lahoud was STILL in power. You asked why he would resign - I think there is a danger that he WILL be overthrown, and the forces to save him arent there , and so he might leave early. I dont KNOW that will happen, and i certainly presume Lahoud has a much better idea of the balance of forces than i do.

Sirotnikov is offline Sirotnikov
King
<--- Yes, It's a "kitty" in a boot.
Feb 2000
time: 07:22
  Old Post 01-03-2005 13:39
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
I jumped the gun?

The gun was jmpued in the OP by Siro when he blamed Hezbullah- I said, no proof has been provided... and guess what! None was, cause it wasn't them.

Now, if you care so little for the thread, leave.


I jumped the gun because it was 3 hours after the event, and all the sorrounding evidence pointed at Hizbullah supported Al-Aqsa groups:

1. A disregard for the cease fire
2. A young suicide bomber
3. A successfull entry into Israeli soil - esp. Tel Aviv.

To my defense, both Israel and Abu Mazen himself thought it was Hezbullah supported groups.

Yes, this was a PIJ attack. A matter of sheer fortune for them.

It does not diminish the threat Hezbullah continues to pose, as it attempts to sway Fatah groupings from supporting the cease fire, as well as passing on advanced technical knowledge and guerilla tactics to the territories.

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
Emperor
FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:22
  Old Post 02-03-2005 01:55
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Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

"Israeli analysts said the new violence was the result of an apparent fracture within the Islamic Jihad leadership, with the Damascus-based leaders determined to scuttle the fragile cease-fire. "The more pragmatic Gaza Strip-based leadership realizes it has to come to an agreement with the new Palestinian leadership," said Yoni Fighel, an expert on Islamic extremists at the Herzliya counterterrorism center. "But the leaders in Syria identify with the goals of Iran, Syria and the Hezbollah who are determined not to allow any normalization between Israel and the Palestinians," Fighel said.

Fighel said the Damascus leaders have broken the traditional hierarchy of the group and are operating cells directly. "

 
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