19-03-2005 20:50									#181
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by MORON However he knows that you can't be that stupid (or something like that) and didn't trust you, so he didn't play that strategy. (either that, or he is stupid)

Exactly; I couldn't bring myself to trust snoopy on the final turn. We had been allied the entire game, first as part of the anti-Event alliance, and then separately. He knows that I've always gone with him in whatever he did for the course of the entire game. So, if he can convince me to attack MORON with two by telling me that he will attack MORON too, but actually he sends two at me, he wins, (or if MORON deflected) there's MAD. By not playing along, my odds were higher.

So it really was more of an issue of numbers than pure distrust of snoopy. Now, if Allied Victory were still in play, then it'd be an entirely different matter altogether, as I could still trust him to do what he says.


EDIT: I see that Spaced is online. Stop stretching out the suspense, will ya?

	19-03-2005 21:13									#182
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by Jonny Exactly; I couldn't bring myself to trust snoopy on the final turn. We had been allied the entire game, first as part of the anti-Event alliance, and then separately. He knows that I've always gone with him in whatever he did for the course of the entire game. So, if he can convince me to attack MORON with two by telling me that he will attack MORON too, but actually he sends two at me, he wins, (or if MORON deflected) there's MAD. By not playing along, my odds were higher. So it really was more of an issue of numbers than pure distrust of snoopy. Now, if Allied Victory were still in play, then it'd be an entirely different matter altogether, as I could still trust him to do what he says. EDIT: I see that Spaced is online. Stop stretching out the suspense, will ya?

lol ... Prisoner's dilemna for sure. Except that in choosing NOT to nuke Moron, depending on the specials situation you may have been *ensuring* you didn't win (roach win, probably). That, and I think i've proven pretty trustworthy so far ... and have little reason to defect (assuming I'm guessing MORON's action right, which I did, and assuming that i'm telling the truth about that, which you can just decide MORON's actions for yourself to determine that) - I have *no* chance to win the game, EXCEPT if MORON rolls the probabilistic dice and targets you instead of me. So the choices are:

code:
 (Snoopy choices along vertical, Jonny on horiz.)
J>Sv    Coop      Defect
Coop   50/50-A  Jn 75% Sn0%
Defect 0J/25S-B Jn 50% Sn25%

Cooperate means fire 2 at MORON, defect means fire at each other and/or 'secret project'

A: 50% Jonny, 50% Snoopy, 0% Moron - if both cooperate and fire nukes, MORON can't win unless he had stockpiled (which was demonstrated that he hadn't).
B: 0% Jonny, 25% Snoopy, 50% Moron, 25% MAD - if I defect (send 2 at Jonny) and Jonny cooperates. 25% because it's 50/50 whether Moron deflects to me (MAD) or to Jonny (I win).

So if I defect, the best I get is 25% (always), whereas if I cooperate it's either 50% or (essentially) 0%. (Now, the 0% is probably slightly higher than 0% ...) Essentially equal choices - 25%, assuming Jonny is neither trustworthy nor untrustworthy.

OTOH, Jonny gets a 50%/0% chance if he cooperates, and a 75%/50% chance if he defects. This is where the problem came - he has a strong reason to defect, since he still likely wins if I cooperate, and even if we both defect he has a good chance to win (with 2 cities not one). Of course, MAD wins at least 25% of the time there, but oh well.

So the mistake was in *me* trusting Jonny. I should have defected as well and given myself a 25% chance at winning. Ah well ... live and learn

That's game theory for ya, MORON, btw, which I *did* study. It does not establish randomness or describe the random chance of things happening - it establishes patterns for determining likely choices. Which I should have used to my advantage, but didn't because I was tired.

	20-03-2005 00:53									#183
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Do ya want a story or just the end game?

Sorry, I was on-line just long enough to check the go results and then went on about my Sat morning business.

But since I'm on cable modem, I leave my machine on...still looks like I'm on.

As it will after I post this even though I going to the store.

	20-03-2005 01:03									#184
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VV3 vv4/V7 4 z70r13.

	21-03-2005 03:45									#185
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Sorry can't get up for the story...just no smiley in me today.

Jonny sendz two and a spy to Moron.
Moron tries to send three to Jonny.

Jonny wins!

	21-03-2005 04:18									#186
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Congrats.

	21-03-2005 04:33									#187
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Congrats again Jonny

	21-03-2005 04:36									#188
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Another success story.

	21-03-2005 11:00									#189
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meh, i was worried that he had a spy........so meh.....

*wait, you can send spy and do other stuff at the time time.....grrr I really should read the rules better....not too bad for the first game I guess*