02-03-2005 09:40									#1
	Lebanese "Government" and George Bush Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Shall we run down George Bush's victories in the war on terror?

1) The removal of the Taliban, enter Afghan democracy
2) The removal of Saddam, enter democracy in Iraq
3) Libya modifies behavior
4) Syrian backed regime in Lebanon falls after assassination of former PM.

As a critic of the Iraqi invasion for another reason, I have to give the Bush doctrine

I suspect this will lead to democracy in Iran in time as "moderates" are emboldened by events all around them...

Even Jon Stewart is expressing amazement at recent events...

	02-03-2005 09:46									#2
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We don't know if Afghanistan, or Iraq will actually become "democracies," and the only reason Libya did what it did, was for the benefits. The Syrian backed regime falling had nothing to do with Bush.

	02-03-2005 09:48									#3
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#1 and 2 were obvious consequences

3 and 4 had little if anything to do with the US

	02-03-2005 09:53									#4
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Don't forget Mubarak promising to make democratic reforms in Egypt in response to recent US pressure. Or municipal elections in Saudi Arabia. Or moves toward democracy in Kuwait and Bahrain. Or the improved relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Things are definitely changing in the Middle East; hopefully it sticks.

	02-03-2005 09:56									#5
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The Lebanese got pissed off because the Syrians assassinated their former Prime Minister, and now he is a martyr.

They did it to themselves. Bush had nothing to do with it.

	02-03-2005 09:58									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Or the improved relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Things are definitely changing in the Middle East; hopefully it sticks.

quote: After the bombing, Sharon spoke by phone with Rice and told her that "without active steps by the Palestinians, there will be no transition towards implementing the first stage of the road map," according to a statement from his office.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast...tack/index.html

	02-03-2005 09:58									#7
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I don't think 3 has much to do with Bush. The others I think do; as does Egypt and Saudi Arabia's minor reforms. Increased anti-americanism seems to out weigh these gains. In fact a truly democratic Egypt or Saudi Arabia would clearly be islamist and probably our enemies.

Last edited by Moral Hazard on 02-03-2005 at 10:09

	02-03-2005 10:00									#8
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Why all the negative vibes, Moriarty?

quote: 3 and 4 had little if anything to do with the US

That isn't what Khaddafi said in an interview with Italian press. The invasion of Iraq was why he changed course after years of obfusacating. And yes, I believe the Lebanese people did react in part to current events. They've been under Syria's thumb for decades and now they stood up and said "no more". Sure, the catalyst was the PMs assassination, but had the tide not changed in the ME I doubt they'd really stick their necks out and tell Syria to shove it.

	02-03-2005 10:08									#9
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quote: Why all the negative vibes, Moriarty?

Negative waves...

	02-03-2005 10:12									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Berzerker Why all the negative vibes, Moriarty?

Kellys Heros

	02-03-2005 10:14									#11
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One of my favorite movies.

	02-03-2005 10:19									#12
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Oddball is awesome...

	02-03-2005 10:21									#13
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My thread on this was better.

	02-03-2005 10:38									#14
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quote: My thread on this was better.

But my daddy can beat up your daddy

quote: Oddball is awesome...

Donald Sutherland deserved an oscar

	02-03-2005 10:45									#15
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I've addressed most of this in the other thread, so I'll go and comment on (3) and (4):

(3) has to do with Bush, but not the "Bush doctrine." It was old-fashioned diplomacy using the carrot of lifting sanctions, with negotiations going back to the Clinton era. It also means no real pressure for greater liberty and democracy in Libya.

(4) has little to do with Bush. It has far more to do with the internal Syrian-Lebanese politics. Israel left Lebanon in 2000, reducing the justification for a Syrian occupation. The Maronites, though initially welcoming the Syrian presence (the Syrians saved their fascist asses from the PLO rebels), seemed to get tired of it about this time. The Druze, who strongly backed the PLO and have their own martyr against the Syrians, always hated the Syrian occupation. The Syrians decided to interfere with the Lebanese Constitution and extend the President's term, pissing off everyone. And now they went and assassinated the popular former PM Harimi, a Sunni, really pissing off the Sunnis. Basically, everyone got really pissed off except Hezbollah. And Assad the Younger doesn't have the iron grip of his dad. Anyways, it was due to total incompetence, but that doesn't mean that it was due to Bush for a change.

And it's not like it's all over; there are still pro-Syrian elements in Lebanese politics, Lahoud has not resigned yet, and the Lebanese aren't terribly united themselves. There's a reason why the state was mired in perpetual civil war.

	02-03-2005 12:41									#16
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I'm glad to see no-one's mentioned the 'O' word.

	02-03-2005 12:43									#17
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Occupation?

	02-03-2005 12:44									#18
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Osama.

	02-03-2005 12:45									#19
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Oh

	02-03-2005 12:51									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Sandman I'm glad to see no-one's mentioned the 'O' word.

Orgasm? Origami? Originality?

	02-03-2005 13:18									#21
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I think Berzerker is right.

The small changes in the middle east are working. Even if it is by small steps that will have little actual value (such as Egypt) - the advancements create a huge change in public opinion.

Most importantly - they give people hope of freeing themselves from their opressors - usually their own rulers, or rulers of other states.

While Mubarak's step in Egypt is not the pinnacle of democracy - it means something. It means that even he felt that he can not go on holding a regime by his own - he had to do something to make his regime at least appear more democratic. What is important is the pressure he felt and the public opinion that drives this.

Lets be frank - in the PA, could there be any possible outcome different from what has become? Could a non-Fatah candidate win and get away with it? No. The results would have been tinkered with even more.

But what is important here is that the middle eastern public realises that he has the power to rise up - that democratic reform is both achievable and will not "destroy your nation" and does not represent "the western diabolical morals".

	02-03-2005 13:28									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Moral Hazard I don't think 3 has much to do with Bush. The others I think do; as does Egypt and Saudi Arabia's minor reforms. Increased anti-americanism seems to out weigh these gains. In fact a truly democratic Egypt or Saudi Arabia would clearly be islamist and probably our enemies.

Why is the increased anti-americanism bad? It's about time we pushed them back on the other side of the wall where they belong!

	03-03-2005 00:05									#23
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Berz shows his stupidity (again).

	03-03-2005 00:46									#24
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quote: While Mubarak's step in Egypt is not the pinnacle of democracy - it means something. It means that even he felt that he can not go on holding a regime by his own - he had to do something to make his regime at least appear more democratic. What is important is the pressure he felt and the public opinion that drives this.

It's far more reasonable to say that this pressure was created by US actions in the ME being a boon to Islamist causes like the Muslim Brotherhood (being the primary opposition to Mubarak), than being created by the spirit of Iraqi democracy or any such nonsense.

And if democratic pressure can only force such a nominal change in the Egyptian system, that doesn't bode well for the strength of said democratic pressure.

quote: Lets be frank - in the PA, could there be any possible outcome different from what has become? Could a non-Fatah candidate win and get away with it? No. The results would have been tinkered with even more.

Err.. Hamas devastated Fatah in the Gaza elections (which they didn't boycott):

quote: In elections held in 10 districts of Gaza this week, Hamas won at least 75 seats out of 118 seats. The ruling Fatah faction of Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas won at least 26 seats. .

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mi...ast/4214375.stm

	03-03-2005 00:55									#25
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Again, does anyone yet have any proof that Syria was responsible for the assassination?

	03-03-2005 00:59									#26
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No. I personally doubt that Assad did it, but probably was another part of the Syrian gov't. Assad doesn't seem to have full control over his gov't.

	03-03-2005 01:01									#27
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Well, shouldn't we all take a step back until we have some idea of who actually did it?

	03-03-2005 01:05									#28
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Why? At this point, it doesn't really matter who actually did it.

	03-03-2005 03:11									#29
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even the NYT editorial page admits Bush deserves some credit.

	03-03-2005 05:31									#30
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quote: Err.. Hamas devastated Fatah in the Gaza elections (which they didn't boycott):

I was talking about Presidential elections - which are way too important so as not to be rigged in Fatah's favor.

Voting to parliament or for president is a different story, because people do consider the political effect of their votes. A Hamas elected president will have to deal with Israel and America. A Hamas elected parliament member will signify a support for a religious country, which is against any settlement with Israel. A Hamas president will setback Palestinian hopes for a state by alot.

The public is aware and polls never gave Hamas figures the same supprot Fatah figures had. Not to mention the Palestinian public regularly shows his support for some peace settlement with Israel, and is probably the most secular arab public there is.

All in all - I don't naturally expect Hamas to take beyond 20-30% in an election (where Fatah will take ~50%). And the Parliamentary elections are not likely to go about unrigged.


In any case - the local elections (their first step, out of 3) are not truly reflective of Hamas's actual power, nor do they fortell its future power when they probably participate in Parliamentary elections this July.

Why?
Because local elections is mainly about 2 things: Tribes (Hamoula) and personal gain. Many of the lists running were combined of Fatah and Hamas members together, simply because they belonged to the same tribe. People went out to vote mostly according to their tribal characterestic. Fatah even managed to make some deals with local tribes to reverse part of the victories in areas in the West Bank.

As for personal gain - Fatah local government is corrupt and inept, while Hamas Daawa foundation is well working and very well published. Obviously people though - "hey, if we vote for the non-corrupt guys, we'll surely get better. Heck - can't get any worse".