09-03-2005 15:08									#1
	Syria backs down; will leave Lebanon Enter the AD-FREE zone

The BBC is reporting that Syria's dictator Bashar al-Assad has caved in to the unrelenting pressure from the US and the UK and has agreed to unconditionally remove all Syrian forces from Lebanon prior to that country's next election. Previously the Syrians had said they would only partially withdraw and they claim the sudden about face has nothing to do with Anglo-American pressure.

15 years ago the UN passed a resolution calling for Syrian troops to be withdrawen from Lebanon however Syria ignored the resolution and continued to occupy Lebanon as if it was a virtual colony. In October of last year the UNSC passed another resolution demanding the immediate withdrawl of all Syrian forces but that resolution had also been ignored until the recent assassinaton of a vocal anti-Syrian former Prime Minister last month.

So what do you folks think? Does this mean that a free Lebanon will finally be able to sign a peace agreement with Israel (which Syria has spent years blocking) and will it crack down on terrorist organizations such as Hamas? Hamas continues to recieve funds from both the Syrian and Iranian governments which are used to carry out terrorist attacks in both Lebanon and Israel/Palestine. Is this a positive development?

	09-03-2005 15:36									#2
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last i heard 100000 people took the streets in beirut in a pro syrian manifestation.

believe what you want to believe but i fear another shithole is being created...

	09-03-2005 18:28									#3
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The big X-factor is Hezbollah. I think Syria will leave Lebanon, as the people of Lebanon and the West are presenting a pretty formidable united front. I doubt Hezbollah will appreciate the loss of their Syrian benefactors and the increased influence in Lebanon of countries like the U.S. who are hostile to them. The recent protest staged by Hezbollah shows that they are pretty desperate to keep the Syrians in Lebanon. It also shows that they have the capacity to mobilize a large amount of followers. Things won't be pretty if Hezbollah decides that violence is the best way to protect its interests in a post-occupation Lebanon...

	09-03-2005 18:30									#4
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that's exactely what i mean...

it's way to early to do a victory dance.

if the lebanese could pull it off of course...

	09-03-2005 20:30									#5
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I think the next step to restoring Lebanese soverignty has to be the removal of Hezbollah. It'll be a bloody battle to do that, but I think if Lebanon is to prosper as a democracy over the long run, Hezbollah will have to go.

	09-03-2005 20:41									#6
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Ooooooh, Hizbullah had a pro-Syria rally. I think their place on the map looks real clear now. Time to grab some pop-corn.

	09-03-2005 20:42									#7
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quote: it's way to early to do a victory dance.

"Victory" can be claimed at each step. Total victory is, as you say, not assured. Maybe not even probable. However, from the US perspective, what has been done already is of great value, even if, for instance, Syria doesn't end up leaving altogether.

	09-03-2005 20:44									#8
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You can't just kill the members of the Hezbollah though, because a great many people are Hezbollah sympathizers. A brutal attak on the Hezbollah has serious chances to degenrate into a vicious civil war like the one they had in the 80's.

	09-03-2005 20:52									#9
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Spiffor

This just means that if any political force has strength, it has legitimacy

	09-03-2005 20:53									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi I think the next step to restoring Lebanese soverignty has to be the removal of Hezbollah. It'll be a bloody battle to do that, but I think if Lebanon is to prosper as a democracy over the long run, Hezbollah will have to go.

Not gunna happen. Lebanon is far to fragile to make a player as powerful as Hezbollah "go" without sending the country back to civil war.

	09-03-2005 20:56									#11
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I guess that's what going to happen.

Hizbullah made it's stance clear.

	09-03-2005 20:56									#12
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This is good news, but may end up meaning absolutely nothing.

	09-03-2005 21:10									#13
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quote: Originally posted by DanS "Victory" can be claimed at each step. Total victory is, as you say, not assured. Maybe not even probable. However, from the US perspective, what has been done already is of great value, even if, for instance, Syria doesn't end up leaving altogether.

if hezbollah is removed by force and the country ends up in civil war, then some short term goals of israel and the US are indeed met. but if the country ends up in civil war i would hardly clame victory, even though the problem of terrorsim has been solved.

	09-03-2005 21:10									#14
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As I posted in the other thread,

Hezbollah's demonstration (BBC):


Out of a population of ~4.5 million, who knows how many hundreds of thousands protested. If that doesn't scare the bejesus out of you, it should. Lebanon may very well be on the precipice of a civil war.

Ironically, we might see a situation where the Hezbollah (which represents most of the Shia - ~40% of the population - the largest plurality in Lebanon) demand equal representation as some sort of compromise to avoid civil war, get it, takes control of their gov't, and then invite the Syrian occupation to stay.

	09-03-2005 21:11									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel Spiffor This just means that if any political force has strength, it has legitimacy

I'm not speaking about strength. I'm speaking about not slaughtering children or elderly who happen to sympathize enough for the Hezbollah that they'll take up arms to defend it if it suffers a brutal attack. I'm talking about avoiding a civil war, which we know are bloody things in Lebanon.

	09-03-2005 21:13									#16
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It is unclear to me who would be available to remove Hezbollah by force. They have about 12% of parliament as well.

	09-03-2005 21:14									#17
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i am sure arrangements could be agreed upon. especially now since syria is on the US's blacklist ...

	09-03-2005 21:15									#18
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Well, can you even think of some good candidates to do this chore?

quote: which represents most of the Shia

AFAIK, Hezbollah doesn't represent most of the Shia.

	09-03-2005 21:16									#19
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Hezbollah is the largest single party in Lebanon, and it's representation is artificially cut in half (Christians are mandated to half of the gov't in the Constitution). They can rally a demonstration consisting of ~1/9 of the population of the entire country. "Removing Hezbollah by force" (whatever that means) is a ludicrous proposition.

	09-03-2005 21:16									#20
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In the end though, with Hezbollah in place, a civil war might be the only path to removing them and establishing democracy in Lebanon.

	09-03-2005 21:17									#21
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quote: I'm not speaking about strength. I'm speaking about not slaughtering children or elderly who happen to sympathize enough for the Hezbollah that they'll take up arms to defend it if it suffers a brutal attack. I'm talking about avoiding a civil war, which we know are bloody things in Lebanon.

Whether they want a civil war or not is for the people of Lebanon, to decide. Civil wars are a result of a cognitive dissonance of an entire society: if such exists, in the long run, it will occur at some point. Might as well make it as painless as possible.

quote: Ironically, we might see a situation where the Hezbollah (which represents most of the Shia - ~40% of the population - the largest plurality in Lebanon) demand equal representation as some sort of compromise to avoid civil war, get it, takes control of their gov't, and then invite the Syrian occupation to stay.

However, the majority of the people still are opposed to it, so a coalition of the rest of the people might keep them at bay.

	09-03-2005 21:17									#22
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I don't know why a grand bargain can't include Hezbollah.

	09-03-2005 21:18									#23
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quote: AFAIK, Hezbollah doesn't represent most of the Shia.

I think it does. AMAL is the smaller Shia party IIUC.

	09-03-2005 21:19									#24
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after what happened the past few years i would not be surprised of anything ...

but let's hope that indeed everybody is tied up for the moment and let the local populatioh sort it out for once. maybe this time they will end up with something they like.

	09-03-2005 21:20									#25
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quote: However, the majority of the people still are opposed to it, so a coalition of the rest of the people might keep them at bay.

I don't know about that. Franjieh, for instance, is a Pro-Syrian Maronite with a lot of influence. It's not just the Shia that are supporting the Syrian occupation.

	09-03-2005 21:21									#26
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't know why a grand bargain can't include Hezbollah.

because they are fundamental nutcases and can't be reasoned with nor can't be trusted to keep any compromises they may make.

	09-03-2005 21:22									#27
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There are 5 groups in lebanon. The Maronite Christians, the Druze, local Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs, and Palestinian refugees. The anti-Syrian protests were made up of the first 3 groups. The last two groups never trully took part in any of those protests.

Hezbollah represents, as Ramo said, the largest single group. The notuion the Lebanese will "kick hezbollah out" is absurd, and it is absurd because Hezollah is a local organization, made up of Lebanese Shia, again, the single largest groups. It has members in the parliment, elected there democratically. Yes, it is an offshoot of an Iranian org, inspired by the Iranian revolution, and in the convoluted Lebanese civil war came to be a syrian ally. Lets remember the Syrians came into Lebanon to save the local sunni and Maronites from the palestinians, and turned against those groups when those gorups supported the Israeli incursion. hezbollah grew out of Shia resentment against Israel's occupation(Shia live on the border areas). In a trully democratic lebanon Hezbollah remains, and it remains because it has trully popular support. The example of that is very clear- all the oppoisiton parties were able to put at most 70,000 people on the street (inspired by the Ukrainian model), while Hezbollah put at least 3 times that on the street. If democracy means rule of the people, which group do you think is stronger-the one that can get 70,000 people out, or the one that can get 210,000 + people out?

	09-03-2005 21:22									#28
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quote: but let's hope that indeed everybody is tied up for the moment and let the local populatioh sort it out for once. maybe this time they will end up with something they like.

The local population sorting it out has kinda lead to incessant civil war.

	09-03-2005 21:25									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel Whether they want a civil war or not is for the people of Lebanon, to decide. Civil wars are a result of a cognitive dissonance of an entire society: if such exists, in the long run, it will occur at some point. Might as well make it as painless as possible.

I cannot remember one time where the people have decided to live in fear, to live in the agony of killing their neighbours and family. I remember plenty of times where scum politicians manipulated some fanaticism (national, religious...) to start a civil war, but I've never seen the decision directly in the hands of the people.

Unless the ebanese make a great first in history, and become the one population that spontaneously really wants to slaughter each other, I don't see how the civil war could ever be "for the people of Lebanon to decide".

	09-03-2005 21:25									#30
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maybe

but foreign intervention has never led to a definitive solution