19-03-2005 03:30									#121
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There's an infinite amount of things that will stop an exponential growth rate before we ever have to worry about exceeding the mass of the universe. But on the other hand, there is pretty much only one foreseeable thing that will curb the use of oil, and that is it's availability.

	19-03-2005 03:35									#122
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quote: There's an infinite amount of things that will stop an exponential growth rate before we ever have to worry about exceeding the mass of the universe.

As there is with the use of oil.

	19-03-2005 03:54									#123
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We know that cosmic conditions prpoduce organic molecules without the need for life. Therefore, there is no reason to believe that petrochemical supplies aren't as infinite as the universe.

As far as the VAST untapped reserves go, we know that these are AT LEAST an order of magnitude larger than the current published reserve numbers.

	19-03-2005 04:25									#124
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My undergrad degree was in Chem E. My senior thesis was a research paper on how injecting soap changes the surface tension of oil in porous rock making it easier to extract (all done on computer simulations). At the time, the added cost made it economically unfeasible. If oil prices continue to rise, someone may dust off my old thesis and actually read it.

	19-03-2005 04:34									#125
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quote: Originally posted by DanS As there is with the use of oil.

What's going to stop the use of oil except it's availablity?

	19-03-2005 04:37									#126
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The discovery of something better.

	19-03-2005 04:38									#127
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quote: Originally posted by pchang The discovery of something better.

Well, that's not a very foreseeable scenario, is it?

	19-03-2005 04:39									#128
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Based upon our current knowledge, the arrival of something better is at least as likely as the total depletion of oil.

	19-03-2005 04:40									#129
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Even if we didn't discover something better, current technology would support a world without much oil just fine.

	19-03-2005 04:41									#130
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quote: Originally posted by pchang Based upon our current knowledge, the arrival of something better is at least as likely as the total depletion of oil.

An unkown is as likely as a known?

A magical resource being found that can be used to replace oil and "do it better" is more likely than us running out of the finite amount of oil available to us?

	19-03-2005 04:43									#131
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We already have plant crops that can be processed to produce oil. They are just more expensive than drilling for it. When that changes, we can start growing it.

	19-03-2005 04:47									#132
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I remember how they used to talk about us running out of oil by 2000 bay in 92.

As some have said the simple fact that the overwhelming majority of the world has yet to even be surveyed for oil, let alone utilized, should lead you to less pesemistic conclusions.

Though I know you do love pesemism.

	19-03-2005 05:02									#133
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quote: What's going to stop the use of oil except it's availablity?

Lots of things could do it. Political pressure to subsidize alternatives or to impose an import tarriff would be one.

The Saudis' real nightmare is that people will stop using oil. It's an easily replaceable commodity.

	19-03-2005 05:02									#134
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Even if we didn't discover something better, current technology would support a world without much oil just fine.

And this has what to do with the availability of oil...?

quote: As some have said the simple fact that the overwhelming majority of the world has yet to even be surveyed for oil, let alone utilized, should lead you to less pesemistic conclusions.

And the overwhelming majority of the world has yet to utilize oil to the extent we are today... That's the thing about exponential growth, it's.... exponential.

	19-03-2005 05:10									#135
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quote: And this has what to do with the availability of oil...?

It doesn't. Read my post above.

	19-03-2005 05:15									#136
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quote: Originally posted by DanS It doesn't. Read my post above.

That is a possiblity, but I don't think it's likely. Especially on a global scale.

	19-03-2005 05:17									#137
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I see the current oil price increase a VERY POSITIVE development. Here are my reasons:

- For decades, cheap oil has surpressed the renewable energy sources that have far less impact on our environment and don't emit greenhouse gasses. Today's alternative energy business is in a very pathetic state: new startups can't attract venture capital as the hot money keep rushing into IT and Biotech; no companies are out there to offer any decent solutions to consumers (Evergreen Solar and BP Solar are just a joke); the stocks of the few publicly traded alternative energy companies are completely dominated by daytraders.

- Gas is now expensive, prompting me to ride bikes more often, walk more often, and use public transportation more often. I see this as very positive for my own health and the environment.

- It's time we ditch those filthy OPEC oligarchs.

- The price of oil is still a lot cheaper than bottled water, coke, and coffee.


No pain, no gain.

	19-03-2005 05:20									#138
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quote: That is a possiblity, but I don't think it's likely. Especially on a global scale.

The US could subsidize its exporters. There's a number of ways to skin this cat if the politics of the ME gets too hot for us and we decide that it's better to make them all destitute.

	19-03-2005 05:22									#139
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quote: - Gas is now expensive, prompting me to ride bikes more often, walk more often, and use public transportation more often. I see this as very positive for my own health and the environment.

I disagree. I drive just as much. However, the higher gas prices have forced me to drink more cheap beer, and I delay going out untill 11 as opposed to 10 to reduce my bar tabs.

I live downtown though, and only drive 12 miles to work everyday, so I don't drive much anyways

	19-03-2005 05:33									#140
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quote: Originally posted by General Ludd A magical resource being found that can be used to replace oil and "do it better" is more likely than us running out of the finite amount of oil available to us?

Nothing magical is required. We already have a number of available sources of energy including many that are untapped. As oil gets more expensive, these are used increasingly. As I said before , its an evolution. The current high price is causing oil companies to re-enter old wells that have now become economic again and caused new expensive projects to be started . . . but it also has people dusting off projects to do with coal, wind, hydro, nuclear, tidal. Some of these will get off the ground and if oil prices continued to increase, more of them would. Its not as if oil is the only available energy source.

So we don't need something crazy-new . . . technology has already provided many options to oil. People seem to forget that even a hundred years ago it was COAL that was the energy king..... Did we run out of coal?? NOPE-- but we did reduce the cheap supply and now its seen as dirtier and more expensive than oil . But coal will continue to be used . . . heck I think probably for another hunderd years as a major energy source

	19-03-2005 05:41									#141
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quote: Originally posted by Flubber Nothing magical is required. We already have a number of available sources of energy including many that are untapped. As oil gets more expensive, these are used increasingly. As I said before , its an evolution. The current high price is causing oil companies to re-enter old wells that have now become economic again and caused new expensive projects to be started . . . but it also has people dusting off projects to do with coal, wind, hydro, nuclear, tidal. Some of these will get off the ground and if oil prices continued to increase, more of them would. Its not as if oil is the only available energy source. So we don't need something crazy-new . . . technology has already provided many options to oil. People seem to forget that even a hundred years ago it was COAL that was the energy king..... Did we run out of coal?? NOPE-- but we did reduce the cheap supply and now its seen as dirtier and more expensive than oil . But coal will continue to be used . . . heck I think probably for another hunderd years as a major energy source

Energy is only one thing that oil is used for. What about plastics and other manufacturing purposes? Solar power, fusion, hydro, ect.. do not even come close to being an oil substitute.

And also don't forget the "do it better" part.

	19-03-2005 05:44									#142
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So it's still: "the market will magically solve the problem".

I have a better solution. When energy prices get too high because the replacements for oil aren't cheap and have no prospect of getting cheaper, we simply find everyone who ever said in print that the market would sort it out, and we burn them.

Suits me.

	19-03-2005 05:49									#143
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon we simply find everyone who ever said in print that the market would sort it out, and we burn them.

A renewable energy source.

	19-03-2005 06:18									#144
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With Nanotechnology, you don't need stinking oil to make plastics. If you can make molecules doing self-assembly, anything is possible.

Nanosys is developing flexible solar panels that are light and thing enough to be worn on your cloths.

	19-03-2005 06:28									#145
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In the near term, the important thing about increased production is not that it will have some huge effect on the supply curve, but that it will be a sufficient wedge to disrupt coordination with the cartel and engender cheating as happened in the 1980s with the results being market level prices.

	19-03-2005 06:43									#146
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quote: Originally posted by fdgfx With Nanotechnology, you don't need stinking oil to make plastics. If you can make molecules doing self-assembly, anything is possible. Nanosys is developing flexible solar panels that are light and thing enough to be worn on your cloths.

With magic, my butt will make donuts. Oh...and what is the difference between self-assembly and crystalization?

	19-03-2005 10:13									#147
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quote: Originally posted by TCO Oh...and what is the difference between self-assembly and crystalization?

Humans controlling each molecule where to go. We are not there yet, but close. Once the semiconductor industry starts processing sub 10nm features (they are at 45nm currently), commercialization of nanotechnology will begin.

Please be a little more optimistic about the future.

	19-03-2005 10:14									#148
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pwned

	19-03-2005 10:31									#149
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quote: In the near term, the important thing about increased production is not that it will have some huge effect on the supply curve, but that it will be a sufficient wedge to disrupt coordination with the cartel and engender cheating as happened in the 1980s with the results being market level prices.

That was Russia's role in this whole thing until it started thinking more about how to destroy any opposition to the czar.

	19-03-2005 11:23									#150
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(aside)
It really bugs me when various talking heads on CNBC state that high oil prices aren't doing much too the economy. While true that it isn't hurting most businesses to the degree that they thought it would. It does hurt the consumer and of course isn't even mentioned much because it isn't part of the core CPI.