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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:35
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This is quite a surprise. A majority of French people are against the proposed EU constitution. It will be voted on in May. France was going first in these constitution votes because the political class thought they had a yes vote in the bag, which in turn was supposed to build momentum for the other countries' votes.
What I want to know is why voting down an obviously attrocious proposed constitution could be described in any way as a "cataclysm." The cataclysm happened during the constitution writing process. There is no shame in recognizing the fact that the proposed constitution needs a fresh start. Likewise, voting yes for a horrid proposed constitution just because nothing else is readily available seems absurd to me (this is the notion that the EU will be somehow suffer a setback because of a fresh start on constitution writing).
NB: I can understand voting for something that is bad, but all-in-all the best that can be done under the circumstances. This is decidedly not the case with regard to the proposed new constitution, of course.
Here's FT's reporting...
quote:
Poll shows French cooling on EU treaty
By John Thornhill and Fred Kapner in Paris and George Parker in Brussels
Published: March 18 2005 12:00 | Last updated: March 18 2005 18:46
France / EuFrance's political elite was stunned on Friday by an opinion poll that showed for the first time a majority of voters opposed the European Union constitutional treaty.
Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission, warned of a “political cataclysm” if France voted No to the constitution in a national referendum on May 29.
However, Mr Delors predicted that the Yes campaign, which has only just been launched, would ultimately prevail. “I believe in the good sense of the people. They will not confuse this vote with questions of internal politics,” Mr Delors said in a newspaper interview.
The poll of 802 people, conducted earlier this week, showed that 51 per cent of respondents would vote No if the referendum were held on Sunday. Support for the Yes campaign slumped 14 points from the previous month to 49 per cent, following a tumultuous spell in French politics.
Over the past few weeks, the unemployment rate has climbed above 10 per cent, the trade unions have staged mass protests against the government's reforms, and the finance minister has been forced to quit over a housing scandal.
President Jacques Chirac has also engaged in a public dispute with José Manuel Barroso, the Commission president, over a draft European services directive which the French president has labelled “unacceptable” in its present form.
The directive, which seeks to free the European services market, has been seized upon by the No camp in France as evidence that Europe is heading in an excessively “liberal” direction.
Jean-Daniel Lévy, director of studies at the CSA institute, which conducted the opinion poll, said it was far too early to predict the outcome of the French referendum. “The debate has not yet focused on the fundamentals of the constitution but revolves around whether France is functioning well,” he told the FT. “But there is a very strong evolution of opinion against the Yes.” Mr Lévy noted a particularly sharp drop in support for the treaty among socialist voters because of the recent social unrest. Last December, a clear majority of Socialist Party members, who voted in an internal party ballot, opted to support the constitution.
Jean-Pierre Raffarin, prime minister, put a brave face on the poll, published on Friday in Le Parisien newspaper, suggesting it would help to galvanise the campaign. “This uncertainty about the result is going to create a debate,” he said yesterday. “If the result is known in advance, then people do not feel personally responsible. But with a 50:50 situation, the French will be personally responsible for their choice.” The European Commission said on Friday it was “disturbed” by the growing No campaign in France, but denied that its controversial services directive was largely to blame.
The EU constitution, which contains new rules for the expanded union and strengthens Europe's foreign and security policy, can come into force only when all 25 members adopt it.
Mr Barroso fears French politicians are fuelling euroscepticism with their attacks on Brussels over the directive. But Jacques Barrot, the French EU transport commissioner, is among those concerned at Mr Barroso's “peculiarly ill-timed” speech on Monday, in which he defended the directive. |
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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:35
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I think he's referring to the fact that the proposed constitution is a bloated mess. You can't really expect the voters to have read this constitution and know what it contains in detail. And some of the detail should rightly be considered in side legal agreements, not a constitution.
Last edited by DanS on 19-03-2005 at 23:13
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Spiffor
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CPA - Evil Clone brigade
Nov 2001
time: 06:35
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The news have made my whole weekend 
An important matter Davout hasn't spoken about is the fact that many people in the mainstream left are now outspoken proponents of the NO. In the past, the leftwing opposition to the constitution was defended by nonmediatic parties such as the far-left, the Communists, and the leftie nationalists.
The mainstream leftwing party (the Socialists) voted to campaign for the constitution at a tiny minority (55% of their members), but the naysayers haven't been silenced 
If you add a heavy social climate, and Chirac's willingness to milk some political gain from the issue (a renegociation of the dreadful Bolkenstein directive, and the implosion of the Socialist party), there is a climate that is propicious to the constitution's rejection.
However, it's way too early to celebrate or to gloat. These news have baffled everybody on the yes side. It might be the shock that will actually make them start a serious campaign for the constitution. In particular, they may be more efficient at scaremongering now, and they might be able to mobilize the "silent majority" that will end up voting for the constitution on Referendum Day 
There are some dire scenarios which are possible:
- The media barely mentions the left-wing NO, and depict the No-side only as nationalistic and far-righty. I seriously expect this to happen, only to be curbed at the end by the little legal protection of party expression at the end of the campaign.
- The Socialists manage to discipline their NO-proponents, and to silence them.
- Chirac stops raising a stink about the dreadful Bolkestein directive, the media follow, and the issue falls under the radar for the monthes to come.
- The government prevents further social conflicts until the referendum by carfully catering to the union's needs. The lack of strikes will let the social issues fall under the radar. And it is the social issues that will make a difference in the upcoming vote: the Nationalists and the Anti-Turks are pretty much captive NO-voters, like serious lefties. The real decision will come from the mild nationalists and the mild lefties, who'll have to pick between considering the constitution as a "step in the right direction" or a "terrible text".
Tomorrow, I'll be having a joint-reunion with other lefties hostile to the constitution. I guess I'll be doing some activism in the two weeks to come, where I'm still in France
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19-03-2005 11:03
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