04-06-2005 21:59									#121
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There are more options for the 9 hole in the AL, of course, that are not available to NL strategies. Last year, for instance, Joe Torre would bat Kenny Lofton in the 9 hole with Derek Jeter or Bernie Williams leading off. Is Lofton a 9 hole quality hitter? Of course not, but it operates on the theory that you want speed on both ends of the lineup. He sometimes has Womack batting ninth, currently, but generally he likes to have Womack batting second -- where he is absolutely incapable of batting Jeter in, but that is neither here nor there.

	04-06-2005 22:26									#122
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How bout them Padres

	04-06-2005 22:28									#123
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About Soriano, take a look at his production in the power numbers over the past couple years: http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/soriaal01.shtml

Doubles and homerun production were significantly down in his last year with the Yanks and first year with the Rangers. I have looked at his current numbers, however, and you are right that his slugging numbers are up and on pace to be more in with what Soriano can produce. As a producing second baseman, Soriano is definitely among the best. Unfortunately, I do not know if his defensive proclivities have improved at all since departing from pinstripes. I wish he had agreed to make that conversion to center field; he would probably still be a Yankee, and I would not be treated to the horrible spectacle of Bernie tagging up from first base.

And do not discount the Nats either, Imran. They would have to pull off a miracle of Major League-like proportions to win the East, but their pitching staff is one of the better in the NL. Livan Hernandez for instance? Beast. And it seems Esteban Loaiza has figured out his cutter again.

Quick question on the Nats: who did they trade to get Marlon Byrd? Or was he a free agent? I know he was in Spring Training with the Phillies.

	05-06-2005 00:37									#124
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quote: ok, heres how it works. DHs (ya know, the guys who replace pitchers) are batting .253/.335/.415 this year. NL pitchers are batting .132/.136/.164. case in point. they hit ON AVERAGE twice as much as pitchers. Ortiz is batting .296/.383/.563. when 1) you have your weakest position batter hitting #8, and behind him guys who average .132, its easy to see why going through an NL lineup is so much easier. the #9 guys are batting .032/.032/.032 vs pedro this year. you can sure bet thats why his era is way down. and you see, in the NL, those #9 AL guys would be batting #8. so in other words, #9 AL = #8 NL - the lack of protection factor, since #9 NL = DH AL

But you aren't answering the question. How do those #9 AL hitters provide so much more protection? The answer is they don't. Yes, you do replace the pitcher with a DH and that means you have to account for the difference in ERA. That is what ERA+ is for.

The AL lineup is more deadly, so you compare the ERA to the rest of the league. And if there is any more protection (which I doubt) that is taken care of it as well.

Now how is ERA+ not a good measure to compare?

quote: Doubles and homerun production were significantly down in his last year with the Yanks and first year with the Rangers. I have looked at his current numbers, however, and you are right that his slugging numbers are up and on pace to be more in with what Soriano can produce. As a producing second baseman, Soriano is definitely among the best. Unfortunately, I do not know if his defensive proclivities have improved at all since departing from pinstripes. I wish he had agreed to make that conversion to center field; he would probably still be a Yankee, and I would not be treated to the horrible spectacle of Bernie tagging up from first base.

Yep, the thing is that Showwalter realized that Soriano is NOT a leadoff hitter. When you ask him to get on base, you limit him, because Soriano doesn't walk and swings away too often. When you put him 5th and tell him to just swing away, he's much more comfortable.

I don't think his defense is any better, but you can't have everything .

quote: And do not discount the Nats either, Imran. They would have to pull off a miracle of Major League-like proportions to win the East, but their pitching staff is one of the better in the NL. Livan Hernandez for instance? Beast. And it seems Esteban Loaiza has figured out his cutter again.

Bah.. they'll fade. We are talking about the former Expos here. And the NL East is loaded. Even Philly has a shot!!

	05-06-2005 00:52									#125
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quote: But you aren't answering the question. How do those #9 AL hitters provide so much more protection? The answer is they don't. Yes, you do replace the pitcher with a DH and that means you have to account for the difference in ERA. That is what ERA+ is for.

ok, so its harder for a pitcher to go through the lineup. a guy like pedro who is only good up to 100 - 105 pitches, that means you have nearly two free outs out of nine. this saves you TONS of pitches, so you can go further in the game. and you get more strikeouts.

	05-06-2005 01:12									#126
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quote: ok, so its harder for a pitcher to go through the lineup. a guy like pedro who is only good up to 100 - 105 pitches, that means you have nearly two free outs out of nine. this saves you TONS of pitches, so you can go further in the game. and you get more strikeouts.

And you can compare how good they are to the league by using ERA+. The only K's that really matter is K/BB or K/inning.

And Pedro being good for only 100-105 pitches a game was a myth. His innings per start last year was more than someone like Jason Schmidt.

Having two free outs compared to one free out (in the AL) is not that much of a difference. The only place it may matter is in wins (if your bullpen sucks then going longer gives you a better chance).

	05-06-2005 01:26									#127
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quote: And Pedro being good for only 100-105 pitches a game was a myth. His innings per start last year was more than someone like Jason Schmidt.

thats cuz schmidt gets pinch hit for in the late innings when they need a hit. and there are no free outs in the AL. just lookt at pedros ERA before 100 pithces, and then after 100 pitches.

	05-06-2005 01:37									#128
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When the DH first began, the AL era's were consistently a point higher than the NL's. Today they are about equal. Why? I suggest that the AL has gone to better defensive players up the middle that, on average, have less punch. We could test this theory by comparing the BA's of AL catchers, SS's and centerfielders vs. their counterparts in the NL.

	05-06-2005 01:55									#129
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia thats cuz schmidt gets pinch hit for in the late innings when they need a hit. and there are no free outs in the AL. just lookt at pedros ERA before 100 pithces, and then after 100 pitches.

Look at ANYONE's ERA before and after 100 pitches. There is a reason that people look at that number as a limit. I remember the first time Smoltz pitched against the Mets this year. He hit 100 pitches and completely fell apart.

Pedro pitched 217 innings last year. Schilling had 226.7, Santana pitched 228, Mulder pitched 225. Pedro was right in with the big time AL pitchers in innings. In fact he was 13th in the league in innings pitched and tied for 6th in the AL.

In the NL last year, most starters pitched less innings than that. It may be because they were lifted for hitters, but then wouldn't Pedro be subject to that this year as well?

But Pedro is 10th in the Majors in innings pitched so far and 6th in the NL. In 11 starts he has as many innings pitched as Tim Hudson, who no one has ever said couldn't go deep into the game.

	05-06-2005 01:59									#130
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quote: Originally posted by Ned When the DH first began, the AL era's were consistently a point higher than the NL's. Today they are about equal. Why? I suggest that the AL has gone to better defensive players up the middle that, on average, have less punch. We could test this theory by comparing the BA's of AL catchers, SS's and centerfielders vs. their counterparts in the NL.

To be fair, the AL's ERA is a little bit more than the NL's. In 2004, the AL's ERA was 4.63 with 5.01 runs per game. The NL's ERA was 4.30 with 4.64 runs per game. Not completely equal, but not a vast difference either.

	05-06-2005 02:01									#131
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia yeah they got a great pitcher, but hes only good in the NL for one, and for two, come back in three years and tell me how good pedro is doing on his 4th year.

I'm sure he'll be doing better than the average of the Red Sox rotation as a whole that year.

epstein still sucks.

	05-06-2005 02:03									#132
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quote: Originally posted by ixnay How bout them Padres

Yeah, my second favorite team is kickin' some ass this year.

	05-06-2005 02:06									#133
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat epstein still sucks.

No, Theo is a great GM. He just made a mistake with Pedro. It happens.

	05-06-2005 02:08									#134
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui No, Theo is a great GM. He just made a mistake with Pedro. It happens.

He still sucks. Not as bad as Ca$h-man or any other MFY, but Sox without Pedro v Sox with Pedro may well mean the difference this year.

	05-06-2005 04:00									#135
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I hear through the grapevine that the Sox did offer Pedro that elusive fourth year and he signed with the Sox right before jumping ship to the Mets. I do not blame Epstein one iota for holding out on giving Pedro that fourth year. Look at the numbers Imran cited above about innings pitched and Pedro's relation to it. What is the difference between Pedro and the other pitchers up there? Generally, age. He is going to fall apart within the next two seasons, and soon that 100 pitch limit will turn into a 70-80 pitch limit.

Whatever, **** 'im. I hope Randy Johnson drills him in the ass during next season's Subway Series.

	05-06-2005 06:38									#136
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randy sucks balls. 1) look at his age. 2) look at his face 3) look at his uniform.

case in point.

	05-06-2005 07:40									#137
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The Yanks, the team with All Stars at every position, have lost again to the Twins, the team with the second best record in the AL and the fourth best in baseball. The Twin have no All Stars. The Yanks have now lost six and a row and sport a very impressive one game above five hundred record.

The fans voting reflects media coverage and the Twins (and the Sox) are not getting much. Even though the White Sox have been at the top of the SI power ranking the entire year, the writer writing the blurbs in the power ratings has never had one good word to say about the team. Not one. Every week he has another criticism.

	05-06-2005 07:51									#138
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You are ignorant of baseball if you say the Twins have no All Stars. Johan Santana? Joe Nathan? Shannon Stewart? Jacque Jones? All Stars or potential All Stars. They probably have one of the most well-run teams in Major League Baseball, the way they make their small market status work.

The Yankees won tonight against the Twins, 4-3 in 10 innings. They have been very streaky of late, suffering from the big gaping black hole in their lineup named "Jason Giambi." His downfall will be the subject of a tragedy performed somewhere off Broadway. I will never forget Giambi for his two homeruns in Game 7 2003, but right now he's an anchor holding the Bombers back.

EDIT: And the White Sox do have some holes, some of which will be significant as the season wears on. They cannot expect to continue winning games with their batting averages the way they are, and they definitely cannot expect to win in the postseason like that. I love Ozzie Guillen, I love what he has done with this team, but they are definitely a team that could benefit from a major trade for a power hitter -- say Mike Sweeney. Their bullpen is also not quite the strength their starting staff is.

	05-06-2005 08:38									#139
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quote: Originally posted by DerSchwarzfalke I hear through the grapevine that the Sox did offer Pedro that elusive fourth year and he signed with the Sox right before jumping ship to the Mets. I do not blame Epstein one iota for holding out on giving Pedro that fourth year. Look at the numbers Imran cited above about innings pitched and Pedro's relation to it. What is the difference between Pedro and the other pitchers up there? Generally, age. He is going to fall apart within the next two seasons, and soon that 100 pitch limit will turn into a 70-80 pitch limit.

As Clemens and Johnson have shown pitchers, even power pitchers, can be successful until 40 years of age. Though Pedro won't be that old at the end of the current deal.

quote: You are ignorant of baseball if you say the Twins have no All Stars.

If it doesn't fit his preconcieved notions, Ned is very loose with the facts.

The fact of the matter, Ned, is the reason you won't find many of them elected to the All-Star team is because they aren't good enough. Which White Sox or Twin would you elect to a non-pitcher position over the people leading the voting?

Konerko, Stewart, and Jones are the best players from both teams but aside from Konerko, they aren't as good as the players voted (Stewart and Jones are good, but not that good).

	05-06-2005 08:44									#140
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I'd hardly put most of the Yankees on the All-Star team, though, Imran. They haven't played well enough this year to be All-Stars.

Though, before you say anything, neither have the majority of the Red Sox (Ortiz and Varitek being the exceptions in the hitting category.)

	05-06-2005 08:56									#141
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Even Konerko hasn't played well enough to make this year's All Star Team, in all likelihood. The White Sox will supply the AL with pitchers this year.

As for the Yankees, A-Rod is the early candidate for MVP with his average, homeruns, and RBIs; Sheffield is producing with numbers that far outpace his All Star season last year; Jeter is Jeter; and, the Yankees' set up men are up there in the league with efficiency. The underperformance of the team as a whole is mostly related to the degradation of Bernie Williams, the glut of poor players who have to rotate at DH, and a poor start of the season from the starting pitchers. It is unacceptable to fans, but it does not take away from the clear cut All Stars on the team this year.

EDIT: (Re) Ortiz. Decent season, but not an Ortiz quality season. I will be a little surprised if he makes the AL All Star team this year based on his current numbers.

And the key difference between Clemens/Johnson and Pedro is that even at ages above 40 they do not have "walls" after which their performance suffers a marked decrease. Clemens and Johnson consistently lead the league in pitches thrown, while Willie Randolph pulled Pedro from a game he dominated against the Yankees after exactly 99 pitches.

Last edited by DerSchwarzfalke on 05-06-2005 at 09:04

	05-06-2005 09:23									#142
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If you want obscene all star results, look no further than the NL shortstop and third base race. Nomah and Rolen, both of whom have barely played this year. thank god the fan's vote is offset somewhat these days.

oh, and piazza

	05-06-2005 09:26									#143
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quote: I'd hardly put most of the Yankees on the All-Star team, though, Imran. They haven't played well enough this year to be All-Stars.

DerSchwarz is correct:

If anyone deserves to be an All-Star this year in the AL it's A-Rod. Sheffield is having a good year. Jeter is the 2nd best SS in the AL behind Tejada.

Besides if you LOOK at the current ballot, the only Yanks which are tops in their positions are A-Rod and Tino Martinez (which is a result of not many good 1B in the AL). Jeter is trailing Tejada by a decent margin at SS.

There are more Red Sox in the top spots (Varitek, Ortiz, and Ramirez).

The Orioles are comming through this year with Tejada and Roberts (who definetly deserves an election) taking the same number of spots as the Yanks so far.

quote: EDIT: (Re) Ortiz. Decent season, but not an Ortiz quality season. I will be a little surprised if he makes the AL All Star team this year based on his current numbers.

Who else makes it at DH? At this early stage Ortiz is up by 500,000 votes against the 2nd guy at DH, Jason Giambi.

quote: And the key difference between Clemens/Johnson and Pedro is that even at ages above 40 they do not have "walls" after which their performance suffers a marked decrease. Clemens and Johnson consistently lead the league in pitches thrown, while Willie Randolph pulled Pedro from a game he dominated against the Yankees after exactly 99 pitches.

The Mets are being smart and limiting Pedro's pitches because Pedro tends to be a bit injury prone. He can through the innings if healthy, as shown last year.

One would think throwing more pitches would mean a quicker breakdown for Clemens and Johnson.

And if you look at Similarity Scores, the pitcher who is the most similar to Pedro at this age is... Roger Clemens.

I'm looking forward to a good 4 years from Pedro, at least, and limiting his pitches will only allow him to pitch better, longer.

	05-06-2005 09:44									#144
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quote: I will never forget Giambi for his two homeruns in Game 7 2003, but right now he's an anchor holding the Bombers back.

i wont either. he cheated - he was on steroids at the time. if he doesnt hit those, we win the game, win the pennant, and have a chance to win against the marlins.

	05-06-2005 09:46									#145
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Steroids wasn't against the rules in 2003, IIRC, so it ain't cheating.

	05-06-2005 09:47									#146
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its illegal in the united states to use steroids, so yeah, it was cheating.

	05-06-2005 09:47									#147
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(i think)

	05-06-2005 09:49									#148
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia its illegal in the united states to use steroids, so yeah, it was cheating.

It's illegal in the US to use cocaine and marijuana. Are people who test positive for them cheating as well?

Illegality has nothing to do with violating the rules of baseball.

	05-06-2005 09:50									#149
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no, because theres no link between cocaine, weed, and improved performace.

comon imran, for a lawyer you sure ask dumb questions.

	05-06-2005 09:53									#150
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia no, because theres no link between cocaine, weed, and improved performace. comon imran, for a lawyer you sure ask dumb questions.

No, actually, you make some dumb statements. May I refresh your memory as to what you said:

"its illegal in the united states to use steroids, so yeah, it was cheating."

QED.

And what about the players who think cocaine and pot help them get into the game. What about the players who think speed can get them 'up' for games? Are those not improved performance?

Who cares if steroids improve performance. So can a lot of other drugs. If it ain't against the rules, it ain't cheating. US law has nothing to do with baseball's rules.