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Peaster
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Florida
Jul 2003 time: 00:17
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Can we assign meaningful values to different Civ2 resources such as shields, beakers and food? For example, many players feel 1 shield = 2 gold. This has been debated in the "Hurry Production" thread and several others. Various opinions have been offered, but some are vague and there is not much agreement.
I propose a contest. I will create a 4000BC save on a very simple map (grass + a few forests, no huts, no specials, no barbs, no AI). You each get a small city, a settler, monarchy and 100 gold. You have to
A) State your values or your theory of the position as simply as possible, and
B) Act on it.
You have a week to do part A). You can use the saved game below for practice. I will provide a similar save for the real contest. It is a 2.42 save, only 1 civ, with monarchy. I chose Deity this time, but may choose King next time for an even simpler game. For the same reason, there will be no tech advances. You must leave your science bar at zero, and you cannot use any civ2 tricks (but rush buying is OK).
Then I will play "Banker" and sell shields and/or food to the highest bidder before play begins. I will use Cheat Mode to revise the save for each player (assuming there are not too many !). You have to bid consistently with the values you stated in part A.
Then everyone plays to 1000BC. Again, your play must be consistent with your statement. I feel this should be done rather quickly, without massive micro-management, since the contest is about your values more than your playing skill. The winner is the player with the highest Mfg (shields per turn) in 1000BC. Or, we can use some other goal that the players agree on.
I'm interested to see if anyone can find the "right" values, and an optimal strategy, for this simplified version of Civ2.
Attachment: ludwig.gif
This has been downloaded 124 time(s).
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rjmatsleepers
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I like the idea. I'm not sure I understand the details yet, but no doubt it will become clear. For example will we be able to bid for shields each turn or only at the begining? Can we only bid for shields, or can we also bid for food?
RJM at Sleeper's
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Grigor
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Oberlin, Ohio
Jan 2000 time: 00:17
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OK, so I did two quick trials and have uncovered some of the issues:
(1) My first try using straight ICS got to 57 shields. My second try, aiming to expand toward more forests earlier, got to 67. It seems that the challenging goal is 100.
(2) On the last turn, all workers are placed on extra shield squares. But it doesn't stop there. Without CB, unhappiness is rampant (and uncontrollable by martial law). By using Elvii one can avoid cities in disorder (it takes some serious micromanaging). However, when I maximize shields for the last turn, I dismiss the Elvii, and every city will riot next turn. So I get a theoretical shield output which is actually unusable. This seems to be what Peaster has in mind, although it sems on the face of it not to be a particularly practical result.
(3) Since growth slows to a crawl once the black hats come in, it is not certain that maximum exponential growth (ICS) is the optimum strategy. Creating a lot of settlers and then plopping them all down on the last turn seems to be an effective strategy
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Peaster
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Florida
Jul 2003 time: 00:17
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Yes, please let me know if it gets complicated, because that is what I want to avoid for now.
Kramsib's thread about maximizing production and marginal values might provide some background for this one. Some of it is rather abstract, so I thought a concrete example would help us all understand it better.
For me, the basic question is whether it is practical to devise a value system to improve Civ2 decision making. It seems theoretically possible, but it may be too hard to do, and the answer may depend a lot on the situation.
I am hoping someone can find an answer, at least for this over-simplified game. It may not apply very well to real Civ2, but if this experiment has a positive result, we can try again from a more realistic start.
I prefer to remove all tech from this game, except monarchy and maybe CB, which will be given at the start. I'd also prefer not to allow celebration. The player should have just a few routine decisions to make - such as placing worker tiles, placing cities, production, whether to build roads, etc. So, part B) may be relatively boring, which is why I suggest a 1000BC ending date. But I think getting part A) right will be challenging, even for such a simple game.
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Peaster
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Florida
Jul 2003 time: 00:17
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quote: Originally posted by Grigor
Oh, I can spend 200g just fine in this start. Rushing settlers the minute the cities hit a certain point seems to me to be the optimum strategy. That uses up a lot of gold from 2500 to 1500 BC. I guess there might be a question about whether to rushbuy the settler the instant the city reaches size 2 or to wait until the moment when the size foodbox reaches 18 sheaves so as to keep the city producing at size 2 the whole time.
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Wow! There are so many plausible strategies even in such a simple position! My first thought was that gold should be spent on the first 1-2 cities ASAP. I changed my mind mainly because of the high rush-buy costs when the shield box is mostly empty. I still think we should spend it before about 3000BC.
Since you said you can spend 200g from this start, I will probably not include BW + Writing. This will make the trade-off between gold and shields more interesting.
quote:
Starting with 3 cities will just push the game further along - as if we start at 3300BC.
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My practice game got a bit boring after 1500AD because there were so many cities. So, I may shorten the game a little. But if this affects your strategy, I will keep the game as is.
quote:
All your suggestions are interesting, and they should have an effect on the marginal cost of shields, food, and gold. I am still unsure as to what valuations you are attempting to test in this context.
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Well, at the end of this contest, I want to know:
a) Do Civ2 theoreticians have anything useful to say to Civ2 players? (Of course, some of us try to wear both hats).
b) What kind of thinking leads to the best results in this simple game? Pure reasoning, trial and error, experience, or what?
c) Can we learn anything about Civ2 from such a simplified game? (for example, I am surprised that food is so valuable, even with so much grass around, and I expect this value transfers to normal Civ2).
BTW - You do not have to state your theory of the position using formulas like mine. For example, some kind of algorithm for bidding and playing might be even better.
quote:
For instance, I see no reasonable alternative strategy to ICS here, so I don't understand what decisions to make differently except how soon and how efficiently to rushbuy the next settler.
***
My basic strategy in either Fundy or Chieftan level would be to build on the no roads checkerboard pattern (cities every 2 squares on the diagonals) and gradually expand towards the forests. My prediction is that the 3 extra turns of city growth and production should lead to a larger civ in 1000 BC than using the forest squares earlier. Less gold might change that. |
Again, a surprising difference of opinion! You may be right about this, but I am not so sure. I agree that City A near forests will produce a new settler 3 turns faster than City B with no forests. "A" may have no food, but its first settler will be better placed than B's. So, I am willing to wallk a typical Settler about 5 extra turns to get to forests. I feel this needs testing - or maybe more thought.
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Grigor
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Oberlin, Ohio
Jan 2000 time: 00:17
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In the Monarchy start, I discovered some value in the trick of disbanding one of the warriors to give an extra push to rushbuying. I tried that on turn 1 in Berlin, and again in the endgame when I was too short of cash to finish the last few settlers. I still cannot evaluate that outcome properly, although disbanding in the second row of a settler build makes those 5 shields worth somewhat more than 2.5 gold.
I think the optimal plan must be to rushbuy the first row at the first oppportunity once the city hits size 2 and is a production center. Here are three options for efficient settler production:
(1) New Settler in 9 turns. For my cities with at least one forest square, I was rushbuying 7 or 8 shields in the first row, then working grassland two rounds (3 shields/Turn), then switching to one forest (4 sh/T) until the end. That was to keep the population at size 2. It pumps a city out in 9 turns and puts 21 shields in the food box.
(2) New settler in 7 turns. The fastest is to rush 7 or 8 shields at the beginning, then work both forests (5 sh/T). That pumps a city out in 7 turns, but puts only 10 sheaves in the food box.
(3) New settler in 8 turns. An intermediate plan is to rush the first row, work both forests for 2 turns, then work 1 forest for 5 turns. That makes a new city in 8 turns and replaces 15 sheaves in the food box.
Are you going to post your Fundy start?
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SlowThinker
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homeless, Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2000 time: 06:17
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Since the aim is to develop an evaluating theory I think
1) there should be the shield/food ratio only so that the evaluation theory can be simple.
I think this might be achieved if you add techs to allow one-row rushbuys: This way the ratio shield/arrow is close to be constant (supposing beakers and luxuries must be set to 0).
But still I would prefer to put the gold out from the game completely.
2) there should be more ways of development for a choice. In other words I agree with Grigor there is not enough of space for decisions.
The problem is the standard Civ2 is ICS-based and more decisions would require some changes to rules.txt:
2a) I think the most natural decision would be 'build a settler' or 'let a city grow'. This requires to make the food box smaller or the settler more expensive. Also cost of granary and factory (it could be allowed) could be lowered.
2b) to allow more 'deals' shield-food you could add more terrain types that would be spread on all the map - like 3food - 0shield, 2F-1S, 1F-2S, 0F-3S. This allow simple deals between food and shields in a 1:1 ratio.
2c) Another interesting decision is placement of cities. To preserve an option of this kind of decision you could add some 'specials' in a bit distant positions (like forest on the testing map).
More notes:
I suppose the map will be revealed(?)
I think fundy is a good idea. Chieftain doesn't get you rid of corruption.
I agree the evaluating by shields is a best idea. Shields are what you finally want (to build army and destroy your oppoments). Population is rather a means to get shields.
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SlowThinker
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homeless, Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2000 time: 06:17
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I posted a PM to Kramsib...
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Peaster
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Florida
Jul 2003 time: 00:17
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Grigor - It sounds like you are doing a little better with ICS growth than I am with GFF. Do you have a 1000BC save I could look at ? I am interested in the percentage of size 1 cities, and the percentage of cities near forests at the end (see below).
SlowThinker - Welcome! In general, I agree that gold is a complicating factor, but am not sure how you'd get rid of it. Would you require taxes = 0, or just make a rule that it cant' be spent...? Also, I am not sure how the bidding phase would work without it.
Regarding (2), I am finding the decisions hard enough already. But your ideas are interesting, and I don't object. Maybe you could experiment with them a little and let us know which seem best.
Here are the results of my math approach to "ICS vs GFF". I think the results are not very practical yet, and maybe that says math is not the best approach to such problems.
Estimates of birth rates , assuming no rush-buying, and ignoring support costs of new Settlers:
Grass only: Starting from scratch with no rush-buying, a city reaches size 2 on the 8th turn, and has 17 shields. It needs 8 more turns at 3s/t to make its first Settler, so 16 turns. But after that it will usually be size 2 and make Settlers approx every 13 turns.
Grass with forests: The city can make a Settler in 13-14 turns, with about 8-14 food in the box. Future Settlers will take approx 11 turns.
Estimate of city values , measured in shields per turn, assuming that 2/3 of the cities are size 1, and the rest are size 2.
Grass only: (2/3)(2s/t) + (1/3)(3s/t) = 7/3 s/t. This means an average city on grass will be worth 7/3 points at the end. If all the cities are size 2, this figure should be 9/3.
Grass + forest: (2/3)(3s/t) + (1/3)(5s/t) = 11/3 s/t. If half the size ones are built directly on forests, this should be 12/3 s/t instead.
Application: This predicts that GFF (move the Settler to the forest before starting ICS) should pay off better than ICS on grass, especially in a long game. I will omit the math unless someone wants to see it. The basic idea is that city values near a forest are so much higher, that you can afford to delay building a city for 10 turns or more. The improved growth rates near forest are a fairly small factor.
Warning: This reasoning ignores the fact that ICS growth on grass will eventually spread to forest areas. It also ignores support costs, rush-buying, etc. I will probably try to include those ideas soon, and would not be too surprised if ICS wins.
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rjmatsleepers
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I think this is a really interesting exercise which could provide some fascinating results.
At the moment however, I'm not sure how a conclusion about values will be reached. The tentative conclusion from the trial phase seems to be that an ICS strategy produces lots of shields. How do we get from that to say a shield is worth 2, 2.5 or 3 gold?
In other words, are we testing a value theory or the ICS strategy?
Grigor's achievement in getting 37 cities and 128 shield was magnificent, but how did a theory of value enter in to it?
I am not trying to discourage anyone from entering - I'll probably have a go myself when the rules are established. I'm just not sure how I would apply the results to a non-fundy, non-ICS situation.
RJM at Sleeper's
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Peaster
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Florida
Jul 2003 time: 00:17
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@Grigor - Thanks for the save.
With 20,000g, the only value left is food. The only reasonable production strategy is to rush-buy as soon as the city reaches size 2 (no?). There is no advantage to staying at size 2 because there is no increase in food production, and shields don't matter.
If I understand ST's idea correctly, he suggests (as I did) including BW and Writing to make rushbuying easier. This would make the relation between gold and shields so simple (1s = 2.5g) that those two variables can be treated like one.
I am neutral on this idea. After you said you could easily spend 200g, I thought it would be interesting to leave things as is.
@RJM - I am not sure a simple value system is possible. For example, (IMO) a city at size 1 needs food more than shields, but at size 2 it needs shields more. So, a formula like "1.5 food = 1 shield" cannot apply exactly to both situations. Maybe we need different formulas for different cases, or some other modification. Maybe algorithms are more useful than formulas. I hope this contest will help us decide.
The challenge in this contest is to find values (or etc) that apply to Berlin at size 2 in 4000BC. I want to know the best playing strategy before I try to assign values, so I haven't said much about them yet. I know this sounds a little backwards - the value formulas should help us find the best strategy, so maybe they should come first.
Will this help us play normal Civ2? I don't know. I hope it will help us learn how to think about Civ2. Some useful formulas or approaches might also come out of it.
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SlowThinker
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homeless, Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2000 time: 06:17
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quote: Originally posted by Peaster
If I understand ST's idea correctly, he suggests (as I did) including BW and Writing to make rushbuying easier. This would make the relation between gold and shields so simple (1s = 2.5g) that those two variables can be treated like one. |
It is not so easy. Gold is more valuable because it is transferable. Therefore it may be used almost immediately. In opposite shields are freezed until the production is completed.
Imagine you can build DoubleSettlers for 80 shields and 40 food. A city from this DoubleSettler will yield a double net production. But still you will prefer to produce normal Settlers.
quote: With 20,000g, the only value left is food. The only reasonable production strategy is to rush-buy as soon as the city reaches size 2 (no?). There is no advantage to staying at size 2 because there is no increase in food production, and shields don't matter. |
I agree. And for simplicity I would forget the starting gold at all...
( Frankly said, I wonder how Grigor, a man with a mathematic thinking (and so a simlar thinking like me), could come with such a bad idea. This point was automately clear for me, without any thinking. But maybe this is because in past I did more thinking about Civ2, in other words my brain is more experienced? )
BTW I propose Peaster waits with his original idea to begin the main conquest one week after the thread was started. Or do you have your theories prepared already? Until now I see your tests are not based on any algorithms.
I will answer more points later, I will be out of the net now.
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Peaster
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Florida
Jul 2003 time: 00:17
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No, I am still working on my theory. If nobody objects, let's postpone the start another week.
ST - Your ideas about the initial save are interesting, but I am not sure what to do with them. If there is no gold at the start, how do we bid ? If we are going to change the starting conditions much, we need to do it pretty soon, so the players can make plans. Also, I feel that anyone who has already put some effort into the position (eg Grigor) has a right to object to major changes.
If we want to make 1 shield = 2.5 gold in the starting position, with the BW/Writing idea, I suppose I can sell you warriors instead of shields (1 warrior = 5 shields). That way, shields are almost as fluid as gold. For myself, I expect to spend my gold quickly, so fluidity is not too important to me.
In Grigor's save, the average prod per city in 1000BC was about 3.5, which is much higher than one can get on grass (no pun intended). He had many size 2 cities, with a fair number near forests at the end. With GFF, I can get over 120 s/t, but not 128. I may give up on GFF for this map, though I think one large forest within 6 squares would make it worthy.
Last edited by Peaster on 21-04-2005 at 22:01
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