28-04-2005 05:15									#31
	Remove this text

Kuciwalker,

Not to an economist. Economists are not very emotional anyway.

	28-04-2005 05:17									#32
	Full PM-box? Change here!

*sigh*

	28-04-2005 05:19									#33
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I think "pleasure" is not the best word, because economists don't mean it as an emotion. A better word is "utility" or the satisfaction of a need or want.

edit: The word specifically means a choice that is not based on emotions. Sorry Kuciwalker. That's the context.

Last edited by Kidicious on 28-04-2005 at 05:51

	28-04-2005 06:07									#34
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: We aren't just talking about one industry. We are talking about a general increase in import costs. Anyway, one industry isn't going to start building factories right away anyway. It takes almost six months to decide to build the factories alone. Companies don't react to short run prices like that. Expansion decisions are based on long range forecasts.

(reserved space for later commentary)

	28-04-2005 06:10									#35
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia (reserved space for later commentary)

What is this?

	28-04-2005 06:12									#36
	Get a bigger avatar today!

As much of a Keynesian as I am, I also believe in rational expections. There has to be expectations that long run demand will be greater. With general inflation you generally get poor expectations.

	28-04-2005 06:53									#37
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious We aren't just talking about one industry. We are talking about a general increase in import costs. Anyway, one industry isn't going to start building factories right away anyway. It takes almost six months to decide to build the factories alone. Companies don't react to short run prices like that. Expansion decisions are based on long range forecasts.

They don't have to build new factories, but update the technology in existing ones. There are a plenty of automotive factories that don't have the best tech because the aren't required to produce that much volume. For example, a good number of American plants in Mexico aren't fully automated because they aren't required to put out that much volume.

The bottom line is that factories across the US can produce more than they are already. When they can capitalize on this, what some are calling long term, development, they will upgrade the technology.

	28-04-2005 07:54									#38
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Originally posted by grumbler In large part because the much of the deficit is for petroleum, which the US consumes in increasing but produces in decreasing amounts. Another factor is the general antipathy to "buying American" right now, despite the more advantageous prices. The "free market" isn't really "free" in the sense of being perfectly rational. If it was, the French would be looking more closely at California wines, for instance.

No, Year to date for 2005 Petroleum has only made up 10% of our imports.

	28-04-2005 07:59									#39
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui They don't have to build new factories, but update the technology in existing ones. There are a plenty of automotive factories that don't have the best tech because the aren't required to produce that much volume. For example, a good number of American plants in Mexico aren't fully automated because they aren't required to put out that much volume. The bottom line is that factories across the US can produce more than they are already. When they can capitalize on this, what some are calling long term, development, they will upgrade the technology.

I think you underestimate the level of modernation in plants these days. Plants have been modernizing greatly in these last two decades. How do you think we've made so much productivity gains.

That's not the real issue though. The US plants don't compete directly with exports very much. There is far less competition than you think. To alleviate the problem US companies would have to move into whole new industries. New plants would have to be built. Those plants would be incredibly inefficient at first, because there would be a shortage of "know how" in the new industries.

	28-04-2005 08:32									#40
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: The US plants don't compete directly with exports very much.

In fact US industry does compete with most imported goods. Simply because there is a comparative advantage someone else, doesn't mean those industries do not exist in the US. For most foriegn exporting companies there is a US equivalent. Our agricultural goods compete with imports. Our industrial parts compete with those coming from overseas. Our automobliles compete with imports.

	28-04-2005 08:37									#41
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: The US plants don't compete directly with exports very much. In fact US industry does compete with most imported goods. Simply because there is a comparative advantage someone else, doesn't mean those industries do not exist in the US. For most foriegn exporting companies there is a US equivalent. Our agricultural goods compete with imports. Our industrial parts compete with those coming from overseas. Our automobliles compete with imports.

If the US doesn't have a comparative advantage that means that in a free trade system they produce very little of that good in comparison to that which is imported. Therefore there is not enough capacity in the US to affect the price in the short run.

	28-04-2005 08:42									#42
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Who says they are affecting price? They are just taking advantage of their goods' lower, relative price, and exploiting that advantage.

Furthermore, if our companies did not compete with imports, why are the labor unions campaigning for higher tariffs? Obviously that would mean that their businesses compete against imports... or are you saying that labor unions don't know what they are doing?

	28-04-2005 08:45									#43
	Inflate your Upload Space

wait, i thought . . .

quote: Of course it's a given. Everything is a given according to your little models. Go on with your little fantasy world and don't worry about anything. The free market always takes care of everything. In fact, that's all you have to say.

anyways . . .

	28-04-2005 08:50									#44
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Who says they are affecting price? They are just taking advantage of their goods' lower, relative price, and exploiting that advantage.

Are we not talking about inflation? Maybe we aren't. That's what happens when you have different threads going. I'm pretty sure you were saying that the US companies would be able to pick up all the slack though.

quote: Furthermore, if our companies did not compete with imports, why are the labor unions campaigning for higher tariffs? Obviously that would mean that their businesses compete against imports... or are you saying that labor unions don't know what they are doing?

They want higher prices for their goods. If they can get trade barriers the market price will go up.

	28-04-2005 08:52									#45
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia wait, i thought . . . anyways . . .

You can't apply a concept universally. That's my point. Free trade and tax cuts are not always the right answer.

	28-04-2005 09:11									#46
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Are we not talking about inflation? Maybe we aren't. That's what happens when you have different threads going. I'm pretty sure you were saying that the US companies would be able to pick up all the slack though.

I was saying that US goods would be purchased in greater numbers as they would have relatively lower prices, thus helping US businesses.

quote: They want higher prices for their goods. If they can get trade barriers the market price will go up.

They want to protect their jobs. They are constantly saying that more free trade will just destroy their domestic companies.

	28-04-2005 09:13									#47
	Inflate your Upload Space

Wow, Kid. Your heart is in the right place, but you really really to study some basic economics.

Its basic economics that unless there's a real boom period pretty much all factories operate quite a bit under full capacity. I don't have any statistics on hand, but I'd guess that US factories are running at 85% of capacity or less.

	28-04-2005 09:13									#48
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

i dont know what all the argument still going on here is about. its simple. people will switch from imports to US made goods, which in the last thread you said you thought was a good idea since thats the only way we keep US manufacturing jobs here. so the price goes up. i dont see what all this other stuff with factories are, etc. either its a good thing or its a bad thing, but you cant say that 'keeping US jobs is good so restrict trade' and then say 'oh no, import prices are going up.' dont you see the hypocracy?

	28-04-2005 09:18									#49
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Its basic economics that unless there's a real boom period pretty much all factories operate quite a bit under full capacity. I don't have any statistics on hand, but I'd guess that US factories are running at 85% of capacity or less.

Yeah, I didn't have the statistics, so I didn't want to make the claim. But I'm certain that factories in the US are not running at full capacity. I just don't know what % they are at right now.

	28-04-2005 09:52									#50
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Yeah, I tried google and couldn't find exact statistics. But I did find this, its probably an extreme case but still instructive:

http://www.detnews.com/2005/special...3/A01-87977.htm

quote: Financial analysts say the automaker has more cutting to do. Stephen Girsky at Morgan Stanley estimates 45 percent of GM's North American factory capacity -- the equivalent of 15 plants -- either is ununsed or making vehicles that generate little or no profit.

	28-04-2005 19:39									#51
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by Bosh Wow, Kid. Your heart is in the right place, but you really really to study some basic economics. Its basic economics that unless there's a real boom period pretty much all factories operate quite a bit under full capacity. I don't have any statistics on hand, but I'd guess that US factories are running at 85% of capacity or less.

Do you realize how much average costs per unit go up when capacity is fully utilized. There's a reason why they operate at less than 100% capacity.

quote: Yeah, I tried google and couldn't find exact statistics. But I did find this, its probably an extreme case but still instructive: http://www.detnews.com/2005/special...3/A01-87977.htm quote: Financial analysts say the automaker has more cutting to do. Stephen Girsky at Morgan Stanley estimates 45 percent of GM's North American factory capacity -- the equivalent of 15 plants -- either is ununsed or making vehicles that generate little or no profit.

You need to read a little more news. GM is a specific case. And we aren't talking about just automobiles. For one the GM plants buy parts from all over the world and put them together in the North American plants. And you are talking about something that is insignificant to the overall amount of imports to the US.

edit: Fixed mistake - changed increase capacity to full utilization of capacity.

	28-04-2005 19:45									#52
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia i dont know what all the argument still going on here is about. its simple. people will switch from imports to US made goods, which in the last thread you said you thought was a good idea since thats the only way we keep US manufacturing jobs here. so the price goes up. i dont see what all this other stuff with factories are, etc. either its a good thing or its a bad thing, but you cant say that 'keeping US jobs is good so restrict trade' and then say 'oh no, import prices are going up.' dont you see the hypocracy?

I think nations should manage their trade. If you don't manage trade properly you are going to get problems. I agree that restricting trade creates higher prices and shortages, but you need to manage your trade so that you don't have a crisis.

	28-04-2005 19:49									#53
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: Are we not talking about inflation? Maybe we aren't. That's what happens when you have different threads going. I'm pretty sure you were saying that the US companies would be able to pick up all the slack though. I was saying that US goods would be purchased in greater numbers as they would have relatively lower prices, thus helping US businesses.

Then you are arguing against a strawman. My point is that it would hurt consumers and then hurt the economy as a whole because of inflation.

quote: quote: They want higher prices for their goods. If they can get trade barriers the market price will go up. They want to protect their jobs. They are constantly saying that more free trade will just destroy their domestic companies.

They are worried about losing their jobs, but it's more complex then that. They generally are against free trade because it limits their negotiating power though.

	28-04-2005 20:03									#54
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Do you realize how much average costs per unit go up when capacity is increased.

I wasn't talking about increased capacity. I was talking about underutilized capacity.

	28-04-2005 20:08									#55
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by Bosh I wasn't talking about increased capacity. I was talking about underutilized capacity.

Right. Sorry. I meant operating at higher capacity utilization, not increasing capacity.

	28-04-2005 20:46									#56
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

The car market is a terrible market to use as an example, specially since so many car companies are multinational giants with manufacturing plants in amny places- few if any American factories use only American made plants, and many American car plants are for foreign brands.

I doubt even a slide in the dollar will cut into textile imports where American does NOt really compete. Ditto with many persojnal electronics. No one in the US makes TV's anymore.

The US's main trade products are services, not manufactured goods.

	28-04-2005 20:58									#57
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by GePap I doubt even a slide in the dollar will cut into textile imports where American does NOt really compete.

Textiles mostly come from China, but there will be price pressure in other areas.

	28-04-2005 21:14									#58
	Increase the size of your Attachments

One thing that I didn't consider is where else would say Germany export it's cars too. Looking at the ranks of importers of passenger cars there's no other place for these products to be dumped. The US imports $116,203,136 in passenger cars and the next closest importer is Germany with $32,808,032. You might think Japan would be a possibility, but they only import $6,985,896. China is only $4,444,491 but increasing the fastest. Other countries are increasing the importation of cars too, but the US is also increasing. So where would these products go is a question.

	28-04-2005 21:35									#59
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Looking at the specifics of trade is pretty informative. One statistic that is suprising is that China exported $41,017,296 in computer equipment (mostly to the US) up from $20,132,256 the year before. No wonder computer prices have been so reasonable.

	29-04-2005 00:13									#60
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Then you are arguing against a strawman. My point is that it would hurt consumers and then hurt the economy as a whole because of inflation.

why are you worried about the consumers now all of the sudden. arnt you FOR protectionist policies, which hurt the consumer. dont flip flop like john kerry.

quote: They are worried about losing their jobs, but it's more complex then that. They generally are against free trade because it limits their negotiating power though.

again, you cant have it both ways. if it limits their negociation power, it means that real wages have gone up. Isnt that what you want? higher real wages to inefficient workers.