08-05-2005 03:42									#1
	What do you think is the future of U.S./chinese relations? Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

I've thought about this *ALOT* for a long time now... Chinese global dominance, is inevitable. I can't think of any situation short of either A. a world wide economic depression to make the 30's look like a paradise or B. a massive war.

How do you see chinese and american relations in 80 years, when America has been surpassed by China in every field, from manufacturing, to research?

	08-05-2005 04:00									#2
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I actually believe the Yanks will build a bloc (along with Europe and other countries) so that the Chinese don't reach hegemony. The bloc won't be like the one during the previous cold war, because the US will be much less above its allies than before.

I expect the realtionship between the western bloc and China to be tense. However, I don't expect either one side grovelling to the other, nor do I expect a direct war.

	08-05-2005 04:00									#3
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I forsee war. Possible nuclear weapon use untill one or the other invades. With the largest standing army, China could resist an invasion, whilst mounting one of their own.
America won't use nuclear weapons if they invade or get invaded, as they won't nuke their own soldier, or civilians.
Whereas china may continue to use nuclear weapons until every pocket of resistance is crushed.

This is entirely speculative, and of course may not happen.

On the over hand, china may become a larger and stronger economic superpower than the US, and america could shivel and colapse into another depression.

But what do I know eh?

	08-05-2005 05:52									#4
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A couple of thoughts on the issue:

A) I don't think that there is any chance of a war. The advent of nuclear weapons has entirely prevented conflict between nuclear powers up to this point, and I don't see why that would change. Recall the heightened tension between India and Pakistan in (I think) 2002. Given their history of violence, it would have been expected that a war would have developed. And yet, it didn't, and this is caused at least partly by the fear that in an all-out war, use of nuclear weapons is inevitable. Also, recall how Kennedy refrained from using violence to resolve the Cuban missile crisis. In this context, I think that the farthest the US would go is to supply military aide to Taiwan in case of a conflict there.

B) What we have seen since the fall of the USSR leads me to think that a new set of rules apply to international relations. I do not think that any nation, just by possessing a powerful military and strong economy, will be able to dominant the world the way the US and to a lesser extent the USSR did during the Cold War. Given the power of the People's War (examples include Vietnam, Afghanistan, Algeria, the various imperial conflicts Britain got involved in), I don't think that a Chinese military could be used to achieve dominance outside of their immediate sphere of influence (DPNK). The economic realm is a little more nebulous, but I economic dominance is by nature less direct than other forms of dominance. If China goes capitalist, which it must if it wants to compete with the US on the US's terms, then the will behind the economic power will be more in the hands of corporations than the government of the country.

C) Why do we fear Chinese dominance? In order to achieve any sort of global international power in the world of today, China cannot continue its human rights abuses. And if we remove that, China deserves to be dominant. In a liberal model, it should have more power than the US, as its population is roughly 18 times greater than the US's. Really, we only fear them because we fear the Other, which, if we want to have any claim to ethicality, we must overcome.

	08-05-2005 06:04									#5
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I for one welcome our new Chinese overlords.