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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:34
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quote:
The problem is Frist has been demanding that ALL of Bush's judges get confirmed. That's no compromise. |
In this case it is. That's why this is such a loser issue for the democrats. None of the judges fit the "extraordinary circumstances" criteria under an expected compromise. It's hard for the GOP to provide a sacrificial lamb so that the democrats save face under these circumstances.
Unless the democrats' goal is to shut down the Senate and lose the favorable precedent, this is a dog of an issue for them.
Last edited by DanS on 20-05-2005 at 19:28
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Admiral
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of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:34
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
In this case it is. That's why this is such a loser issue for the democrats. None of the judges fit the "extraordinary circumstances" criteria under an expected compromise. It's hard for the GOP to provide a sacrificial lamb so that the democrats save face under these circumstances.
Unless the democrats' goal is to shut down the Senate and lose the favorable precedent, this is a dog of an issue for them. |
Republicans are only kidding themselves. Let's look at the numbers, shall we? Democrats allowed 205 judges to be confirmed. They are now blocking ten. Many of the nominees were conservatives, and probably distasteful to the Democratic Senators. So when you really look at it, the Democrats have already compromised 205 times, and now Republicans are saying, "ok, allow five more of these through, and we'll save the fillibuster." It is perfectly clear that what we have on our hands is a Republican power grab, and interestingly enough, polls show that people generally support the judicial fillibuster.
But really, your post just shows your lack of understanding regarding the forces at work here, and the stakes. The Democrats lose in a compromise. Right now, the Democrats win. Frist has not called a vote on the nuclear option for one reason, and that is because right now, he doesn't have the votes to get it passed. Frist's entire presidential bid resides on this vote, and the support of Dobson and co that will fall upon him if he looks after their options first. They want the nuclear option, no holds barred, and if Frist has a chance, he will get it passed.
Right now, in the eyes of the public, Frist doesn't look good. Reid offered a compromise, probably insincerely, and Frist stated that he will accept no compromise that allows for the fillibuster. Frist is looking more and more like an extremist, and Reid can now say that he gave Frist an opportunity to compromise, but Frist wouldn't take it. Any compromise at this point, however favorable to Republicans, won't involve Frist. He loses.
So there are a couple of ways this could go. A) there could be the nuclear option vote, and it could be blocked by crossover Republican votes. The Democrats and crossover Republicans win in this case. B) there could be the vote, and Frist wins. This will look bad for him, and whoever voted alongside him. The Republican power grab meme is already in place, and this will just reinforce it. Any action on the Democrats part can be seen as fighting against this, and the Democrats win. C) There is a compromise. The vote doesn't have to take place, Republicans are seen as being nonpartisan, and getting their nominees through at the same time. While the Democrats may save some face, their rhetoric of this being a right wing power grab falls apart, and they are seen as weak. And in the end, the same thing will happen over Bush's supreme court nominee if the Democrats compromise now. The Democrats lose.
Reid knows this. Whether some blue dog Democrats also realize this or not remains to be seen, but they, not the crossover Republicans, ultimately decide who wins or loses.
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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:34
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quote:
But really, your post just shows your lack of understanding regarding the forces at work here, and the stakes. The Democrats lose in a compromise. Right now, the Democrats win. Frist has not called a vote on the nuclear option for one reason, and that is because right now, he doesn't have the votes to get it passed. Frist's entire presidential bid resides on this vote, and the support of Dobson and co that will fall upon him if he looks after their options first. They want the nuclear option, no holds barred, and if Frist has a chance, he will get it passed. |
I think I understand the dynamics well enough. You are correct that the dems lose in a compromise. However, they lose even more by not compromising. They lose the precedent. They can't stop this without shutting down the Senate.
Frist and the GOP win on this no matter, so you would expect the dems to seek to limit the scope of the win. Shutting down the Senate is extremely risky.
quote:
and interestingly enough, polls show that people generally support the judicial fillibuster. |
The mass of American voters couldn't give two shits about the judicial filibuster. What kind of freaks do you talk to? This is all inside baseball.
Last edited by DanS on 20-05-2005 at 23:13
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Admiral
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of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:34
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quote:
The mass of American voters couldn't give two shits about the judicial filibuster. What kind of freaks do you talk to? This is all inside baseball. |
From the Washington Post:
quote:
But by a 2 to 1 ratio, the public rejected easing Senate rules in a way that would make it harder for Democratic senators to prevent final action on Bush's nominees. Even many Republicans were reluctant to abandon current Senate confirmation procedures: Nearly half opposed any rule changes, joining eight in 10 Democrats and seven in 10 political independents, the poll found. |
Also, there is this from The Hill, regarding an internal GOP poll:
quote:
The Republicans are keeping the “nuclear” poll numbers secret, whereas they have often in the past been keen to release internal survey results that favor the party. |
But in terms of elections, this just merges into a percieved Republican general effort. In 2006, Democrats can say that these people are attempting to gain power by any means possible, and can point to a number of factors. They can point to the DeLay scandals, they can point to the schiavo insanity, and they can point to the nuclear option.
Because in the end, the conservative wing of the conservative party is not as big as some like to think it is. Even now, the Democratic Party has more registed voters than the Republican party. Bush ran in 2000 as a moderate, and in 2004 as a wartime president. Moderates, while they agree with Bush on some things, don't agree with Bush on his more conservative initiatives. Moderates were overwhelmingly against the schiavo intervention, and they seem to be against the nuclear option. Once the Senate Republicans press the trigger (if you'll pardon a bad analogy), they won't be able to be seen as a moderate party, and they will lose votes. The Democrats may slow down the Senate, and they claim they have a way of doing this without shutting down the government as the GOP did under Clinton. They may look whiny if they do this, but they'll look like whiny centrists. I just can't see Frist and his allies looking good in this context.
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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:34
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None of those polls give numbers by strength of feeling. I think they are of limited value in helping judge whether people would vote based upon this general opinion.
People are so tuned out from politics now that it doesn't matter a whit to them what happens on a particular procedural precedent in the senate. Again, it's all inside baseball.
Last edited by DanS on 20-05-2005 at 23:44
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Admiral
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of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:34
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quote:
Originally posted by SpencerH
I've said it before, the constant use of the filibuster by the minority is bullshit. This a democracy. Decisions requiring congressional approval should be made by vote not by rules of parlimentary procedure. |
This is not a democracy. But other than that, would it matter if the minority of Senators represented the majority of constituents? Besides, what's with this "constant use" business. The Democrats have confirmed 205 conservative judges. They are threatening to fillibuster ten. If the Republicans wanted, they could easily find ten substitutes that the Democrats could let pass, even if they were concerned over ideology.
quote:
None of those polls give numbers by strength of feeling. I think they are of limited value in helping judge whether people would vote based upon this general opinion. |
True. I agree with you, in that right now this isn't as broad a public debate as it could be. I mean, lets face it, most people don't pay attention to the Senate until election season anyways. However, I can assure you that this will come up during the next election. And it will be significant. And if we assume that most of the people paying attention right now are the partisans, we can go and make a reasonable guess what the moderates will think of the issue. On one hand, we have a centrist Democratic stance, and a 95% confirmation rating. On the other hand, we have Republicans who are making a power grab. I think that moderates will lean heavily towards the Democrats on this one, and while it may not be a voting criteria per se, I think that it will certainly influence the theme of the election.
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Boris Godunov
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Portland, OR
Aug 2001
time: 00:34
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quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
If he had us by the balls, the nuclear option would be a done deal already. Just remember, what comes around goes around, and the Republicans shouldn't whine and ***** when retaliation gets shoved down their throats.
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Precisely. Drake is clueless about who has who by the balls. It's James Dobson who has Frist by the balls. Frist is selling his soul for the nod of the Religious Right in 2008. If he had the support for it he claimed, this would have been a done deal weeks ago. Reid has all but taunted him to make his move. Meanwhile, Dobson has been making dire statements that further delay on Frist's part will be very bad for him, politically.
Right about now, I'm sure Frist is regretting the "nuclear option" even came up, just as he is regretting the GOP waltzing into the Schiavo case. The political damage being done to the Republicans lately is rather astonishing. DeLay, Schiavo, Social Security and now the Nuclear Option...
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20-05-2005 11:23
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