28-05-2005 22:08									#1
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The new key to American political analysis?

	29-05-2005 00:37									#2
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The housing in red states is affordable because no one wants to live there. The housing in blue states is more expensive because everyone wants to live there. Blues states are more liveable because of blue politics.

	29-05-2005 00:50									#3
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Then why are there more people in red states?

ACK!

	29-05-2005 00:55									#4
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Because two "red" states frequently flip flop: Ohio and Florida.

	29-05-2005 00:58									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Tuberski Then why are there more people in red states? ACK!

Blue states gain people because they move in, Red states gain people because they got born there.

That said, if conservatives don't want urbanization and subsequent anti-friendly values from occuring, they ought to be having fewer kids, not more.

	29-05-2005 01:01									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Tuberski Then why are there more people in red states? ACK!

Even in the large red states, most of the population are in "blue area," i.e. these supposedly family-unfriendly urban centers.

	29-05-2005 01:06									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Smiley Blue states gain people because they move in, Red states gain people because they got born there. That said, if conservatives don't want urbanization and subsequent anti-friendly values from occuring, they ought to be having fewer kids, not more.

Then explain to me how the state of Utah, which is the epitome of a red state has such a large population increase from people coming from California.

ACK!

	29-05-2005 01:17									#8
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You haven't heard of the invasion?

	29-05-2005 01:29									#9
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I don't agree with what that guy has to say about immigration, but the other stuff he says makes a lot of sense.

There are a lot of places in the red states with a very high standard of living -- a lot higher than in the blue states. Most of these places are rather bland and "rough hewed", though.

Perfect places to raise families.

	29-05-2005 11:21									#10
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quote: I don't agree with what that guy has to say about immigration

Me neither. I thought the article as a whole was pretty thought-provoking, though.

	29-05-2005 11:23									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Even in the large red states, most of the population are in "blue area," i.e. these supposedly family-unfriendly urban centers.

	29-05-2005 11:26									#12
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But suburbs trend Republican, so urban centers with more room for expansion (like those in many red states) tend to go for the GOP. Didn't you two read the piece?

	29-05-2005 11:36									#13
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I did, and I think the author has a strong point, especially with the expansion of suburbs.

I also think it'll result in a moderating influence on the party, since these people generally won't be wacko fundies...

	29-05-2005 11:43									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker I also think it'll result in a moderating influence on the party, since these people generally won't be wacko fundies...

Don't get your hopes up.

	29-05-2005 11:46									#15
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I'd bet you'll only find a higher concentration of atheists and agnostics among academia.

	29-05-2005 11:48									#16
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So what this guy is saying, in the end, is that Pat Buchanan was right in an immigration policy for the US that will benefit the Republican Party?

	29-05-2005 11:49									#17
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You don't have to be a genius to see that, in general, immigration helps the Democrats (with the noted exception that pro-life hispanic immigrants very well may vote republican).

	29-05-2005 11:55									#18
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Yes, but the blogger is arguing it from a different view point, that immigration increases the supply of housing, which makes the prices go up, and thus white people become more Democrat, since housing costs more and that means they will wait to have kids and families... or something.

There are correlations, but whether they lead to causation is another story.

After all, he speaks about Texas voting for Democrats and how they switched, but fails to point out that Texas Democrats in the 50s and 60s were the conservatives. California, I think has changed because of the immigration itself, and not because housing prices have increased as a result of the immigration.

Then again, if housing prices are higher, wouldn't that mean public schools are better, since most public schools are funded through local property taxes?

	29-05-2005 11:57									#19
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Yes, but the only people who go to those schools will be the ones in the higher-priced houses. The people who don't have the higher-priced houses will live in the city or somewhere with lower-priced houses.

EDIT: plus what drake said

	29-05-2005 11:57									#20
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quote: Then again, if housing prices are higher, wouldn't that mean public schools are better, since most public schools are funded through local property taxes?

Not if your public school system is saddled with having to teach scores of non-English speaking immigrants.

	29-05-2005 12:00									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: Then again, if housing prices are higher, wouldn't that mean public schools are better, since most public schools are funded through local property taxes? Not if your public school system is saddled with having to teach scores of non-English speaking immigrants.

If you live in an area where your housing prices are higher, you likely don't have many non-English speaking immigrants in your schools .

This is a place I think the analysis breaks down. The places with the highest housing prices are usually pretty 'white'. Perhaps immigration raises housing prices through a national supply shortage, but that doesn't work for me either.

	29-05-2005 12:00									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui If you live in an area where your housing prices are higher, you likely don't have many non-English speaking immigrants in your schools .

At which point my point is true.

	29-05-2005 12:02									#23
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Well, I don't really agree with the immigration angle. It might be true, but it wasn't as well supported as other points in the piece.

	29-05-2005 12:11									#24
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Well it isn't just the immigration angle. The cost of housing doesn't seem to work for me either. In New Jersey, I lived in a pretty high cost housing area (on the shore, every house with big yards, etc) which was solidly Republican.

While the center cities do have a liberal upper class housing area, the lower cost housing areas within the cities are also Democrat. And a lot of higher cost housing around the cities tend to be Republican.

It doesn't fit. I think it is more a function of actual geography than housing costs.

In Atlanta area, for example, the lower housing cost areas are the more Democrat areas, whereas the higher housing cost areas seem to be the more Republican areas (of course it isn't a hard an fast rule).

The other stuff may indeed be true, though I'm not sold on the cost of living argument.

	29-05-2005 12:14									#25
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't agree with what that guy has to say about immigration, but the other stuff he says makes a lot of sense. There are a lot of places in the red states with a very high standard of living -- a lot higher than in the blue states. Most of these places are rather bland and "rough hewed", though. Perfect places to raise families.

"raise a family" how?

People have been raising families everywhere since the beginning of recorded history. What one wants their kids to have differs.

I am very skeptical that these numbers are being read right- instead of saying "being married ina suburb makes you 'red'", maybe being 'red' is what makes you seek out marriage in a suburb, thought what is "red" varies greatly: Republicans in Long Island and Republicans in Houston share very few things.

	29-05-2005 12:15									#26
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Which is why I think this trend will skew the party back towards the NE Republicans.

	29-05-2005 12:17									#27
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The author misses one big point - without immigration, where's the cheap labor to build all those suburban mcmansions going to come from?

	29-05-2005 12:18									#28
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I think of it this way: People who seek lots of cheap individual space in order to create an autonomous zone for themselves buy into the "its my money, I should keep it rhetoric". They have a view of themselves as king of their own little kingdom, and no one should be intruding upon it, darn it.

On the question of marriage, on the other hand, people who are married longer are probably people for whom marriage is of upmost importance, and these people begin as socially conservative, and less liekly to countenance marriage and so forth.

	29-05-2005 12:20									#29
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I think of it this way: People who seek lots of cheap individual space in order to create an autonomous zone for themselves buy into the "its my money, I should keep it rhetoric". They have a view of themselves as king of their own little kingdom, and no one should be intruding upon it, darn it.

It probably works both ways, in that the thinking of those who obtain such a space tends to change towards that line.

quote: On the question of marriage, on the other hand, people who are married longer are probably people for whom marriage is of upmost importance, and these people begin as socially conservative, and less liekly to countenance marriage and so forth.

	29-05-2005 12:22									#30
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quote: Which is why I think this trend will skew the party back towards the NE Republicans.

Moderate Nebraskan Republicans...

quote: The cost of housing doesn't seem to work for me either.

Cost of housing isn't the only factor to take into account. Marriage and children were the more important factors, which the author argued were encouraged by low housing costs in most cases.