30-05-2005 22:25									#31
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quote: Originally posted by DanS The chances of alien invasion are unknown, but the chances of a devestating meteor hitting earth are a lot higher than you might imagine. The chances of death by meteor impact and/or its aftermath are estimated at something like 1 in 6,000. It's a lot better hypothetical than most that come to Poly.

You are being misleading. The chances of an impact are far more remote than that, its just that big because if it happens its far more destructive.

That is to say that a one in a million chance (per year) catastrophic collision results in a 1 in 40,000 chance of you dying from such a collision.

	30-05-2005 22:27									#32
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I think Dan's statistic was utterly meaningless without a timescale anyway...

	30-05-2005 22:32									#33
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I presumed the timescale for the 1 in 6,000 was the length of the average human life. Which presumes a globally catastrophic event every 150,000 years or so. Which is not right AFAIK..

	30-05-2005 22:40									#34
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He never explicitly said that...although it could make sense if he also included ice ages into that calculation...150 millennia does seem a little short apart from that...

Besides, have you replied to that damn message yet?

	30-05-2005 23:04									#35
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quote: Originally posted by Dauphin You are being misleading. The chances of an impact are far more remote than that, its just that big because if it happens its far more destructive. That is to say that a one in a million chance (per year) catastrophic collision results in a 1 in 40,000 chance of you dying from such a collision.

Why is that being misleading? It's a simple estimated mortality calculation.

I didn't do the calculation and can't vouch for its accuracy (done by the U. of Arizona or somebody), but as I understand it a 1 km to 2 km asteroid hits Earth about once or twice every million years. Assume that this kills most/all people on Earth.

Then there are much smaller chances of an object bigger than that hitting Earth. See, for instance, the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Lastly, there is a much larger chance of objects smaller than that hitting Earth and causing death on a mass scale, but not killing most people.

Personally, I'm willing to take our chances with the Russians pushing these rocks out of the way, but there are some Americans who want to become a multi-planetary species in order to avoid the possibility of extinction because of meteors and other causes. They are spending fantastic sums of their own money on this. Indeed, this is the driving force of much of what American private entities are doing in space nowadays (only tens of millions of dollars are going to the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence every year).

	30-05-2005 23:24									#36
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Why is that being misleading? It's a simple estimated mortality calculation. I didn't do the calculation and can't vouch for its accuracy (done by the U. of Arizona or somebody), but as I understand it a 1 km to 2 km asteroid hits Earth about once or twice every million years. Assume that this kills most/all people on Earth. Then there are much smaller chances of an object bigger than that hitting Earth. See, for instance, the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Lastly, there is a much larger chance of objects smaller than that hitting Earth and causing death on a mass scale, but not killing most people. Personally, I'm willing to take our chances with the Russians pushing these rocks out of the way, but there are some Americans who want to become a multi-planetary species in order to avoid the possibility of extinction because of meteors and other causes. They are spending fantastic sums of their own money on this. Indeed, this is the driving force of much of what American private entities are doing in space nowadays (only tens of millions of dollars are going to the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence every year).

You can do the probability density distribution of impacts of varying size and cross multiply with the resultant loss of life predictions from varying size to give a result of 1 in 40,000 chance of a person being killed by an impact.

However, what that figure disguises is when the next event will occur. It also disguises the fact that when it does occur it will apply by killing most people during that event.

The distribution of deaths from an impact is therefore extremely atypical and as such will be misleading to just state an odds without explanation.

Its not like say the lottery, where a few people win a week against odds in the millions to one. The probability of someone winning in any given week is actually quite high, but the chance of a million people winning in the same draw is astronomically remote.

The chance of at least someone dying from an asteroid collision any given year is extremely low, far lower than winning the lottery, but the chance of a million people dying simulataneously from an asteroid collision is not much less likely.

The distributions are very different. That is my point.

	30-05-2005 23:26									#37
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Actually, I bet there's a higher chance of a million+ people dying from an asteroid than of one person dying from an asteroid.

	30-05-2005 23:33									#38
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OK, if you want to attach an explanation of distribution to those figures, I don't have anything against it.

	30-05-2005 23:36									#39
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Its just a case of lies, damn lies and statistics.

	30-05-2005 23:37									#40
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No lies or damn lies involved. Do you think people are AOK to die with billions of their fellow human beings, but not AOK to die by themselves? Indeed, we could say that death by meteor is the worse way to leave the material plane, because whole families would be snuffed out and your property is destroyed or devalued in the process.

Last edited by DanS on 30-05-2005 at 23:48

	31-05-2005 00:09									#41
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If we are all snuffed out together then there would be no-one left to care about land value, and no-one to worry about being left behind.

Suits me just fine.

About the stats, the same data that says we each have a 1 in 40,000 chance of dying from an asteroid impact, also says the none of us would be likely to see a globally catastrophic impact even if we all lived 1,000,000 years.

IMHO it all depends on how you phrase the terms, doesn't it?

	31-05-2005 00:19									#42
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the U.S. would never charge the other countries money for this. (though they would accept donations)

	31-05-2005 00:22									#43
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quote: Originally posted by Dauphin If we are all snuffed out together then there would be no-one left to care about land value, and no-one to worry about being left behind. Suits me just fine.

You lack human feeling, dolphin.

	31-05-2005 00:29									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker And thus you prove it

Of myself I poke fun. Bite me, Kuci.

	31-05-2005 01:07									#45
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*bites*

	31-05-2005 01:34									#46
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You all need a reality check. As much as it pains me to say this, we will not be able to stop it from hitting--be it a planet killer, a nation killer, or a city/town killer.

First, Our leaders are not farsighted enough. We're not prepared. The U.S. only responds after the fact, not before. If we are so concerned, we would be spending the money necessary to track/monitor on a 24/7 basis; we're not.

Second, we would have the device ready for deployment on a moments notice; we don't.

As for Russia or China, they don't have the infrastructure or economics for the task. Hell, until Clinton and his cronies came around China couldn't even launch a satellite without it blowing-up, crashing, or vering off course. Their space program is not even in its infancy, the sperm is still swiming towards the egg.
As for Russia, their space program is on life-support because they have no money. When are shuttle fleet was grounded, we gave them money to launch their antiquated rockets to help those on the space station so they won't be strainded in orbit. Their astronauts do their training here.

The world will look to us for salvation, but we're unable to deliver. Only in Hollywood will you have a happy ending. This is reality.

	31-05-2005 01:37									#47
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quote: Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar How naive

I hope an asteroid comes our way just so I can prove you wrong.

	31-05-2005 01:57									#48
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I'm sure France, Germany and Russia would get a few accidental impacts. Tough to get every little bit of those big, nasty metiors. Iran, NK, Syria...it would be just so sad.

Australia would actually be improved by a chunk or two and we owe them a favor.

	31-05-2005 02:05									#49
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quote: First, Our leaders are not farsighted enough. We're not prepared. The U.S. only responds after the fact, not before. If we are so concerned, we would be spending the money necessary to track/monitor on a 24/7 basis; we're not.

Believe it or not, we are.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

quote: As for Russia, their space program is on life-support because they have no money.

Russia puts more stuff in orbit than we do.

	31-05-2005 02:32									#50
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DanS, do you think they would tell us if the world was going to end in 2029? What do you think the effect of such an anouncement would be?

	31-05-2005 02:38									#51
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Come on Dan, do really believe the that bull. Their only tracking the really big ones. But they still have no remedies to implement. It is their opinion that won't hit in 2029. Anything can happened in the next 24 years to bump it on the right trajectory.
And what of the smaller ones, the city killers, they don't see those at all, or did you forget a couple months ago when a small one came with in range but missed. They didn't see that one until too late. Because they're not watching, because the funding isn't there.
So the Russians launch satellites, so do the French, so do the Japanese, and so does private companies. Launching a satellite and stopping an asteroid/comet/meteor are two vastly different programs and undertakings.

	31-05-2005 02:38									#52
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Does anyone else find it ironic that the only discussion of the US as a world saviour takes place in the context of a TOTAL FANTASY?

	31-05-2005 02:39									#53
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...we have Bruce Willis...

	31-05-2005 02:45									#54
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Well, first when I saw this thread Yet another Armageddon/Deep impact story.

Talks about probabilities of death by meteor impact just increased my

Well, all was just fine until I started reading todays newspaper. On page two they had a story about asteroid 2004 MN4. Oh, no need for digging bunkers yet, it's first at friday 13, april 2029 it get close for the first time and then at 30.000 km distance - well that IS close but not that close execept for a minor detail - it seems that the bugger want's to visit us again in 2034 at a little closer distance, namely 4.300 km, and in 2035 at 3.500.

Of course 3.500 km is plenty of space to do no harm, but ehrm, how accurate are these calculations ?

Of course, it's only a little pebble 320 meters wide, but I would prefer it impacted at the opposite of the planet (no serious damage unless of course to the sheeps

More details can be found here :

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

	31-05-2005 04:48									#55
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quote: Originally posted by techumseh Does anyone else find it ironic that the only discussion of the US as a world saviour takes place in the context of a TOTAL FANTASY?

No, since the only situations in which the entire world would actually need saving are total fantasies, except for nuclear war, which you can't really "save" the world from anyway once the nukes are flying.

	31-05-2005 05:50									#56
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quote: Come on Dan, do really believe the that bull. Their only tracking the really big ones.

They're doing the surveys. They're finding new asteroids of all sizes at an increasing rate. I guess we're on track to discover about 500 new asteroids this year. So what's your problem?

quote: So the Russians launch satellites, so do the French, so do the Japanese, and so does private companies. Launching a satellite and stopping an asteroid/comet/meteor are two vastly different programs and undertakings.

The Russians launched about half of all launches last year, while the US launched about half as much. Such a project would have lots to do with just putting mass in space, so these figures are pertinent.

	31-05-2005 05:53									#57
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a meteor strike could play havoc with real estate values

	31-05-2005 08:39									#58
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Actually, the real key to avoiding an impact like that would be to get the asteroid/comet early. The farther out it is, the smaller the delta V we would need to nudge it out of the way. If we caught it too late, there is no way we could put enough mass into space to cause a miss. What we really need are a bunch of large nukes orbiting out around where Mars orbits attached to large rockets. The further out we stage those things, the further out we can hit any incoming asteroids/comets.

	31-05-2005 08:56									#59
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Far out.

	31-05-2005 08:59									#60
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quote: Originally posted by DanS The chances of alien invasion are unknown, but the chances of a devestating meteor hitting earth are a lot higher than you might imagine. The chances of death by meteor impact and/or its aftermath are estimated at something like 1 in 6,000. It's a lot better hypothetical than most that come to Poly.

There is one out there now that they are watching. It will be here about 2035 or so. The boys watching it, for now believes it will pass outside of the moon orbit, but are not positive of that.