07-06-2005 18:43									#1
	Progress in Iraq Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

It appears that regular people are starting to get fed up with the insurgents. If this keeps up, the insurgency is really doomed.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast...town/index.html

	07-06-2005 18:48									#2
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It's doomed when the Sunnis are fed up, which does appear to be happening.

	07-06-2005 18:57									#3
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let me be the pessimist, then. Even if the insurgency is looking doomed in the LONG run, theres a very long way to go in actually eliminating it. Turning the "sea" against the guerillas is a an important condition, but not the only one, for winning.

A. The insurgents can still retain control of areas where the population is cool to them by sheer coercion. A costly method, perhaps not sustainable, but enables them to remain active for some time.
B. Even if some fence sitters are turning against them, Im sure they still have strong pockets of support.
C. Some of the change in hearts and minds must come from the use of Iraqi forces to do searches, etc instead f the less culturaly sensitive Americans. But the Iraqi force is still vulnerable, with inexperienced officers, and is subject to penetration by the insurgents.
D. Theres bound to be rocky spots on the political path, and that could still lead to Sunni backlash.


So good for the Iraqi people, but dont count any chickens yet.

	07-06-2005 19:13									#4
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There's a lot of cause for both optimism and pessimism in Iraq.

The WaPo had an article a couple of weeks ago about Sunni tribes developing vendettas against the terrorists. The marines just watched on as the local tribe and the terrorists had a days long firefight.

On the other hand, you look at the suicide terrorist attacks against civilians in Baghdad and it just seems unendingly gruesome. It's amazing to me that such a large number of people are willing to commit suicide in order to kill civilians. 3 suicide attacks just today.

	07-06-2005 20:05									#5
	Re: Progress in Iraq Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by pchang It appears that regular people are starting to get fed up with the insurgents. If this keeps up, the insurgency is really doomed. http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast...town/index.html

The lady was a shite and a Turkman. The insurgency gets its support from Arab Sunnis.

	07-06-2005 20:26									#6
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She is married to a Sunni and not the only one referenced in the article.

	07-06-2005 20:30									#7
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quote: Originally posted by pchang She is married to a Sunni and not the only one referenced in the article.

actually the ethnicity and religion of the tribal sheiks is not made clear. But what do you expect from CNN?

	08-06-2005 02:53									#8
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The insurgency is not the reason for pessimism in Iraq. Its the fact it took so long to come up with a government after the elections, that the Constitution might very likely be late, and that who knows if whatever deal is reached will be supported by the population.

I worry when Condi vists the Kurdish regions of Iraq and the colorguard has a Kurdish flag waving and nary an Iraqi flag in sight.

	08-06-2005 03:44									#9
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Some perspective: it took America a good eight years to get its government 'straight,' between Articles and ratification of the Constitution. If there is one adjective that describes democracy, it is 'slow.'

	08-06-2005 03:50									#10
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That was a tiny matter of working out details, not fundamentally opposed groups whose politicians are easily displaced by armed fighters.

We didn't have politics by assassination and a potential civil war on ethnic, tribal and religious lines as the background for our political squabbles.

	08-06-2005 03:53									#11
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We did have a civil war along political lines though

	08-06-2005 03:53									#12
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That misrepresents the nature of 18th century America. The history books present this sanitized version of America that is just a bunch of white men gathering together in Philadelphia to hammer out some minor details. Violence was in fact a very real part of life at the time; the very mention of the word 'taxation' in any form was enough to spark rebellions, not to mention the nature of politics as it started to form in the 1790s. And I am sure a Georgian considered himself just as distant from a Bostonian as a Shiite from Basra considers himself distant from a Kurd in Mosul. I think it is a cogent analogy, and my point still stands.

	08-06-2005 03:55									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker We did have a civil war along political lines though

Yeah, and you solved it through purges.

Sieg heil, *****es.

	08-06-2005 04:17									#15
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quote: Originally posted by DerSchwarzfalke That misrepresents the nature of 18th century America. The history books present this sanitized version of America that is just a bunch of white men gathering together in Philadelphia to hammer out some minor details. Violence was in fact a very real part of life at the time; the very mention of the word 'taxation' in any form was enough to spark rebellions, not to mention the nature of politics as it started to form in the 1790s. And I am sure a Georgian considered himself just as distant from a Bostonian as a Shiite from Basra considers himself distant from a Kurd in Mosul. I think it is a cogent analogy, and my point still stands.

How many were killed in or as a result of Shay's rebellion?

How many in the Pennsylvania Whiskey Rebellion?

How many signatories of the Articles of Confederation were subject to assassination attempts?

etc. etc.

**** the history books. "Violence" in those days might be a drunken brawl and some thrown rocks, somebody rode out of town on a rail, or one or two people getting shot if things came to a boil.

Whether Georgians gave a rat's ass about Bostonians is irrelevant - they needed several weeks (months in the winter) and a lot of effort to get close enough to do each other any harm.

There was nothing like the kind of current violence in Iraq, in the post-rebellion 18th century US, let alone politically motivated violence. That's true on either a per capita basis or pro-rata.

	08-06-2005 04:18									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker We did have a civil war along political lines though

That was after the Yankees disregarded the existing political framework which had been in place four score and change years.

	08-06-2005 04:19									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...G=Google+Search

	08-06-2005 04:20									#18
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: tongue :

	08-06-2005 06:59									#19
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Yeah, and you solved it through purges. Sieg heil, *****es.

Not quite. Only 3% are estimated to have left. And many returned.

	08-06-2005 07:07									#20
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat That was after the Yankees disregarded the existing political framework which had been in place four score and change years.

Actually, President Lincoln preserved the nation as the way that it was conceived by Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, and among others.

The Confederacy wanted to destroy the idea of a republic government with a despotic government. A despotic government, in that they denounced the idea that all men are created equal, and in that slavery is inherently anti-republic and anti-democracy.