12-06-2005 08:10									#1
	China - emerging threat, peaceful riser, or paper tiger? Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

I should be studying for my Chinese politics exam, but I'm on Apolyton instead .... so I guess I should make a post that is topical.

I've been worrying a bit about Australia's position in the asia-pacific region; particularly its attempt to balance growing economic ties with China and strategic & political ties with the USA. This strategy seems to be paying off, at least in the short run, but given that US-China relations have been souring somewhat lately, I am afraid that we will forced to make a hard choice in the future.

A week or two ago a Chinese consular official in Sydney, Chen Yonglin, attempted to defect. He claims to have been given the responsibility of reporting to the PRC about the activities of falun gong, tibetan, taiwanese and chinese muslim activists in the city. He is riddled with guilt at the possibility that the information he has provided on activists have jeopardized the lives/liberties of their families back in China, and that his activities betrayed his growing sympathies for falun gong practitioners and his belief in democracy. He also claims that there is a network of at least 1000 chinese spies operating in Australia.

Chen originally tried to defect privately by going to the department of immigration, identifying himself and telling the department that he had important information and that on no account should they notify the Chinese consulate of his actions. The Department immediately notified the consulate, and Chen (understandably) fled. He resurfaced on June 4 (the anniversary of the Tianman Square massacre) to publicly announce his allegations. The Government had blown its opportunity to deal with this situation in private.

The Government was faced with a dilemma; how to protect this man (as they wanted to do), without insulting China. They rejected offering political asylum, forcing him instead to apply for a temporary protection visa though the normal channels. It is clear, however that they would be instructing the department behind the scenes to approve the application. If they gave him territorial asylum (a ministerial decision) they would have insulted the PRC and jeopardized the economic gains that Australia has accrued from China's "peaceful rise", but if they rejected his claim altogether and sent him back to China (to certain persecution), they would be hated by the public as cynically discarding a man's life for the sake of economic gain.

I believe that Chen was foolish to look to Australia for help and should have immediately contacted the US Consulate. The USA is at least powerful and sympathetic enough to offer asylum to Chinese dissidents.

This case, however, is allegorical of Australia's overall relationship with China. We abhor the Communist Government there, and its human rights violations and contempt for democracy, yet we are locked in, by our economic interests, to an intimate dance with the dragon.

I'm not sure if it is possible to predict the attitude of a Chinese superpower to the rest of the world. China has not traditionally been aggressive towards the world at large (except in its western frontier [no more than the USA], in its conflict with Vietnam, and the limited territorial disputes with Japan)... but then it has not yet had the power to reach far beyond its own borders (excepting the case of Zheng He, in which the Ming Dynasty voluntarily withdrew from the world).

What kind of assessments of China's power and intentions are there? Where can I find useful information on China's strategic forces and interests? And perhaps some more detailed information on its relations with the US and other emerging great powers would be helpful.

Last edited by Dracon II on 12-06-2005 at 09:29

	12-06-2005 08:44									#2
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Young Dracon II is growing in skill and intellect.

I remember the days when we used to trade raps.

I suggest a mentor, such as Alexander's Horse, to take him under his wing.

Oz

	12-06-2005 08:47									#3
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China is modelling it future growth of power on another country. Looking at that country's behavior will give you some insight on China's future vision of itself.

	12-06-2005 08:52									#4
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Which country DaShi?

	12-06-2005 08:54									#5
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Isn't it obvious? Which country is always brought up in discussions about China?

	12-06-2005 08:55									#6
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I would say either USA or Japan.

	12-06-2005 08:57									#7
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China's current leadership is aggressive expanisionist but they're tempering their desire to sieze Taiwan and a half dozen other territorial disputes until after they become top dog.

	12-06-2005 09:00									#8
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Let's hope the situation is resolved peacefully when the time comes.

Our two economies are now so intertwined, a war would be catastrophic for the entire world.

	12-06-2005 09:04									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Dracon II I'm not sure if it is possible to predict the attitude of a Chinese superpower to the rest of the world.

That is your most likely answer -- It's impossible to predict what China will do in 50 years.

We can say that China has not used its military for over 25 years and is instead focused on economic development. China spends money on its military, but so do almost all countries. Canada, for instance, bought four submarines a few years ago. Does that mean Canada is planning to attack someone, of course not.


But, it's impossible to prove that China does not have aggressive plans, simply because it is impossible to prove a negative.

	12-06-2005 09:18									#10
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Comparing Canada to China? That's very simple logic as it ignores the vast differences between the two. However, I will agree that it is difficult to predict China plans for the rest of the world. One thing is clear, it doesn't really like it, or at least greatly prefers itself over it. Even the English propaganda channel here can barely disguise China's disgust for the west. You should here what they're saying here about the EU textile dispute even after it's been resolved.

	12-06-2005 09:58									#11
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I'm no offensive realist, but I think that the hegemonic stability thesis does have credibility. I don't think we're in hot water yet... but if these new powers emerging into the world system aren't sufficiently integrated into the existing framework and given their place in the sun... there'll be trouble.
I've been reading an article about the incredible growth of cities in the third world... in many countries the cities are growing even though the economy is shrinking. It estimated the possibility of an uninterrupted megalopolis running from Japan, Korea and Northern China down to Java. We'd be dealing with 100s of millions of proletarians and lumpenproletarians, and a major demographic and infrastructural crisis for these Governments. So perhaps they have enough of their own problems to deal with, before they can even think of turning their eyes to any of us.
China is a worry however, because its demographic change is largely mirroring its economic growth and investment... so cities are improving to fit the newcomers in (largely). The Shanghai delta could very well become one of the most important financial and productive urban sector in the world.... kinda like a cross between 19th Century London and Manchester.
The big question is; is the world big enough to handle all of this? Can we do it peacefully?

quote: Young Dracon II is growing in skill and intellect.

Thanks Ted! I was 14 when I signed on to Apolyton, and I'm now 20... so I would hope that I have

quote: I remember the days when we used to trade raps.

Ah yes.... they were "ill". What happened to the 1212 Problem.... he didn't seem to stick around for long. Last I remember of him was freestyle rapping at the Mod Asylum (grown a lot since then... I can tell you )

quote: I suggest a mentor, such as Alexander's Horse, to take him under his wing.

Anyone who's willing to teach, I'm willing to listen to.

quote: Oz

Some scottish guy was on the news today talking about Russell Crowe's "incident" and suggested that the reason he was so violent and obnoxious was that he was Australian. I got so angry that I threw my phone at the TV

It does worry me though that Aussies have that sort of image... and that we have tools like Crowe representing us overseas.

Cate Blanchett and the guy who played Wolverine are far better examples, I'd say. Friendly, down to earth, and civil people.... as most australians are when they haven't been drinking.

	12-06-2005 10:03									#12
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My image of Australians is that they are rugged but disciplined. Friendly but not quick to start fights.

Instead of walk softly and carry a big stick, it's

Walk with a smile and carry a big stick.

	12-06-2005 10:17									#13
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I hope you don't mind but I'm just making a post here so the thread will be easier to find when I have enough time to respond in a way befitting the way you asked the question. I'm swamped at work so won't have any real time to devote to the books I have on this subject.

	12-06-2005 10:34									#14
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Which is the most likely direction for an expansionist China to take? Some options...

East across the straights to Tiawan. Obvious choice, but they have to build a navy first, that will take decades.

North into Siberia. Russia has nukes...

West into Iran. I think this is a possibilty. China goes for the oil.

Southwest into India. Can't think of a good reson to do this, but they did Tibet, soo...

South into Southeast Asia, but they've been there and done that and Vietnam is a tough nut to crack.

	12-06-2005 10:37									#15
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I just do not see China becoming terribly expansionist anytime in our lifetime. I expect disputes over Taiwan and North Korea -- indeed, ones that could explode into wars -- but I do not see Beijing attempting to coordinate a wholesale occupation of the various parts of Asia that may or may not interest them.

	12-06-2005 10:51									#16
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quote: East across the straights to Tiawan. Obvious choice, but they have to build a navy first, that will take decades.

Not just a navy, but a navy to match the USA's, a competent airforce to defend againsts carriers, and... well they have the numbers to actually occupy Taiwan, but getting across the strait through US Carrier fleets is another matter altogether.

quote: North into Siberia. Russia has nukes...

A few skirmishes across the border perhaps, but no real war I'd say...

quote: West into Iran. I think this is a possibilty. China goes for the oil.

Iran and China have quite a cosy relationship... and if the USA and Europe increase their pressure on the regime... they'll flee further into the PRC's orbit, thus making an invasion unnecessary.

quote: Southwest into India. Can't think of a good reson to do this, but they did Tibet, soo...

I think invading Tibet was as much about keeping it out of India's influence than it was about expansionism. India has nukes as well.... that would be a costly war for the Chinese... but they could persuade the Pakistanis and maybe the Burmese to support them on the flanks.

quote: South into Southeast Asia, but they've been there and done that and Vietnam is a tough nut to crack.

ASEAN and China are falling closer together anyway, economically speaking that is....

	12-06-2005 10:55									#17
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Do you think Iran would allow the passage of Chinese forces invading other oil rich moslem countries?

	12-06-2005 11:04									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer Do you think Iran would allow the passage of Chinese forces invading other oil rich moslem countries?

Couldn't be sure. I don't know a great deal about Iran. I think their relationship with China is perhaps more one of convenience than of genuine amiability. I'm not sure what the Regime's view is of Han domination of muslim provinces such as Xinjiang... but I'd say it's ignored as long as Chinese investment pours in.

If they were faced with the prospect of China installing regimes in the middle east... I think that perhaps they'd demand the installation of Islamist regimes? If control of the Middle East was a clear battle between the US and China then I'd imagine Iran would be happy to accommodate passing passing Chinese soldiers.

	12-06-2005 11:08									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer West into Iran. I think this is a possibilty. China goes for the oil.

To get to Iran, China would first have to go through Pakistan and/or Afghanistan and Tajikistan.

	12-06-2005 11:13									#20
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True. And the Americans are already in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Not an easy option for the PRC.

	12-06-2005 11:14									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Dracon II I'm no offensive realist, but I think that the hegemonic stability thesis does have credibility. I don't think we're in hot water yet... but if these new powers emerging into the world system aren't sufficiently integrated into the existing framework and given their place in the sun... there'll be trouble.

And what do you perceive as the existing framework? Is it international cooperation or one nation acting on its own.

Within a framework of international cooperation, the rise of East Asia can be accomodated. In a world of Bush unilateralism, conflicts will occur.

So the question of whether China will be a paper tiger or threat will really depend on what the U.S. does in terms of foreign policy. If the U.S. decides that China is a threated that must be isolated then China will likely respond aggresively, and in doing so create a self-fulfilling prophecy for the U.S.

If the U.S. treats China with respect and as a partner, it is more likely that China will respond similarly.

	12-06-2005 11:18									#22
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Preemptive US blaming.

	12-06-2005 11:49									#23
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Great, more unprovoked US-bashing from Tingkai. China is a totalitarian oligarchy, it does not deserve respect.

	12-06-2005 12:04									#24
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I want to know where this 'China is going to invade somewhere, anywhere' notion is coming from.

They recovered Hong Kong and Macau with diplomacy, even though they could have easily just invaded them. They've not attacked anywhere for decades. They keep a smallish stock of nukes, even though they could afford more. They've been settling border disputes, signing non-aggression pacts and setting up resource deals.

	12-06-2005 12:14									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Odin Great, more unprovoked US-bashing from Tingkai. China is a totalitarian oligarchy, it does not deserve respect.

You're starting to sound paranoid, like that strange little boy who gets his jollies off by regularly insulting me, even though I have him on my ignore list.

There was nothing in my post that can be construed as U.S.-bashing. What I wrote simply reflects the reality of international relations: that a country's foreign policy reflects that of other nations, particularly the policies of the world's only super-power.

	12-06-2005 12:30									#26
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I never insult you, I only give accurate descriptions of what I see. But you've got to admit your post is funny.

Anyway, glad to see you can't resist peeking.

	12-06-2005 12:45									#27
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quote: And what do you perceive as the existing framework? Is it international cooperation or one nation acting on its own.

Well, ideally the the UN, the Bretton-Woods institutions, and regional trading blocs.

So far, the institutions most flexible and responsive to change have been the international economic structures and trading blocs (WTO, ASEAN, EU, G7[8] etc). However, one of the most important pillars; the security council, is wholly inflexible... and is quickly becoming an anachronism, as it is still limited to the victorious powers of world war 2. Emerging Great Powers will want to have a say in the security council, or else they will simply ignore it.

A lot rests on how globalization is effected by the growth of a multipolar world. The rage at the moment seems to be regionalism, which is fine, as long as it is not at the expense of globalization.

I believe the best option is expanding the security council, and making it a "concert of powers"; like the concert of Europe in the 19th century. I just hope we don't need another Napoleon to realize the necessity of such an institution.

	12-06-2005 14:28									#28
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I'm not sure if China will be exceedingly expansionistic. China will certainly want to have Taiway, and there could be some nasty pressure about the control of Siberia, as well as a willingness to secure strategic areas.

However, I don't think China has colonial Europe's or current America's wet dream of spreading its system on the whole world. I don't think there is a feeling of "yellow man burden" in China, which can tone down the agressiveness a fair bit.

	12-06-2005 14:39									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Dracon II quote: And what do you perceive as the existing framework? Is it international cooperation or one nation acting on its own. Well, ideally the the UN, the Bretton-Woods institutions, and regional trading blocs. So far, the institutions most flexible and responsive to change have been the international economic structures and trading blocs (WTO, ASEAN, EU, G7[8] etc).

But one of the most important, the IMF, has been extremely unflexible and as a result has caused major problems around the world.

Read Joseph Stiglitz's Globalization and its discontent. He explains how free-market ideologues have created more problems than good solutions.

It will be interesting to see whether Asean can do more than just being a club. But it really needs to be replaced by an organization representing countries from India to Australia to Japan.

The WTO is plagued by agreements that protect developed economies whiel harming developing economies. Apparently, the US is considered an under-developed nation according to WTO rules. More on that later.

quote: Originally posted by Dracon II However, one of the most important pillars; the security council, is wholly inflexible

True, the vetos should be eliminated, but that is unlikely to happen.

quote: Originally posted by Dracon II A lot rests on how globalization is effected by the growth of a multipolar world. The rage at the moment seems to be regionalism, which is fine, as long as it is not at the expense of globalization.

True. Regional trade groups are a necessary step towards greater globalization simply because it is easier to get an agreement among a few nations than the entire world. Japan, India and China will likely look at a creating a free trade zone because of the benefits this creates.

	12-06-2005 14:47									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I'm not sure if China will be exceedingly expansionistic. China will certainly want to have Taiway, and there could be some nasty pressure about the control of Siberia, as well as a willingness to secure strategic areas. However, I don't think China has colonial Europe's or current America's wet dream of spreading its system on the whole world. I don't think there is a feeling of "yellow man burden" in China, which can tone down the agressiveness a fair bit.

On a related note, there is a theory that Chinese culture lacks an Alexander the Great icon -- the great man who tries to conquor the world. So the idea of conquoring the world isn't part of Chinese culture. A debatable concept.