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snoopy369
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Of the Peanuts Gallery
Apr 2004
time: 23:33
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Hmm.
They have: 9 Immortals, 4 regular 5 veteran.
We have: 10 swords, 4 spear (all vet).
On average, immortals will lose 5 hp for each 4 hp spearman or sworsdman. They have 4*3+5*4 or 32 HP total; so they will, on average, kill 6.5 units of ours in exchange for their 9 units. (Although we'd actually not lose these units, on average - we'd on average lose almost nothing, because we'd put up a fresh new unit each time we won; my guess is that we'd lose 3 units or so.)
I'm not sure what the 'range' (standard deviation) of civ random numbers is [if it is a standard bell curve or if there is some concentration or dispersal] ... Assuming that civ essentially rolls 1d5 for us and 1d4 for the immortal and compares the values, and the random numbers are normally distributed (and assuming I remember my stat):
Mean score for us: 2.5
Mean score for immortal: 2
SD for us: about 1.2
SD for them: about .95
68% score for us: between 1.3 and 3.7 [68% of our rolls will fall here]
68% score for them: between 1.05 and 2.95
We would probably lose about 70% of the battles if we got the absolute worst reasonable luck - if we consistently rolled near the bottom of the 68% range - but our mean score is near the top of their 68% range, probably about [34%+16%+20%]=70% of their rolls will be below our mean [50%]. (If it's a standard distribution, and not a flat distribution.)
--
If it's a flat distribution (even chance of getting any given roll, from 0.05 to 4.95), then we have a slightly lower chance to win (as Rhoth says, 55% to 44%). That would mean our potential risk is greater, ie we COULD get horrible luck and lose totally - but we probably won't, on balance, and just as likely could win totally and not lose a unit.
As I said tho, it's been a while since stat for me. 
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14-06-2005 02:33
Attachment: 
Thanks. The only thing I ask is that it be changed to 'Rhothsson" instead of "Rhotsson" if you play next turn too. Otherwise I'll do it. 
), and Rhoth is what most people call me online.
The trick will be to get them off that mountain. If they don't budge after BOH attacks them then we should stick around and continue to hold them. If they move some or most of our own units toward BOH then we should start moving again (on the hills and mountains) to continue our own strike against them. The trick against immortals is always to get them on the defensive instead of attacking you. 
An army would be great. Depending on what happens with DR (whether we need a sword army or not) it would be great if we could get the MGL, make an army, and then hang on to it for a while until we get riders. A rider army is a nice thing. 
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