23-06-2005 20:16									#61
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I believe that we are arguing about the current state of Egypt's politics. Not some hypothetical situation in the future.

	23-06-2005 20:25									#62
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[QUOTE] Originally posted by GePap


"Actually, no, they had not shceduled the elections just then, IIRC.

They did it soon after, but not when Allawi took over, as some ill informed people might think."

Well im quite glad youre no longer saying Allawi was appointed to defer elections. The UNSC res establishing the January deadline was passed in June, I think. About the same time Allawi was selected. I dont recall when i posted about the demo.


"Again, no, those elections had not yet being scheduled. As for your second part, the group most connected to the insurgency, the Sunnis, DID BOYCOTT the election, and their turnout was miniscule compared to the Shia and the Kurds. "

I did not say otherwise (though the Sunni arabs seem to be having second thoughts now.


"No one here was surprised by the events of Jan. 30. 60% turnout, not including the Sunnis, vast turnout in the Kurdish areas, as everyone expected, and since the Ayatallahs had made it a duty to vote, large turnout in the Shia areas as well. "

You mean on January 29, when it was pretty clear what was going to happen on the 30th? youre right, few were surprised, except at how quiet the day was.

In June? In August? Even in November. It doesnt take that much to be right about whats going to happen the next day.


"Then the Iraqis were late in forming a government"

OMG, their first real democratic govt ever, and it takes them two whole months to form a cabinet!! Obvioulsy you dont follow say, Israeli politics closely.

" no one knows yet if the consitutional vote wll be delayed by 6 months"

no one knows if it will be delayed by two weeks, either. Or two months. Or not at all. No one know if the Iranian govt isnt about to collapse. "No one knows X" isnt a meaningful statement. They HAVE formed a govt. They have entered into negotiations with they Sunnis (including AMS and IIP), who seem quite willing to participate, but bargained over number of reps. They have reached an agreement in principle on the number of Sunni reps, and are now arguing over which Sunnis get chosen. Geez, political give and take.


"and if we measure the insurgency in bodies, the election did not change that."

So now youre saying body counts are more important than political progress?

"You have a very variable memory, obviosuly."

	23-06-2005 20:29									#63
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quote: Originally posted by GePap "Some joining the chants". From where does htis become thousands? All of a sudden you know exactly what the author meant by "some"? If you are psychic, you should have won that 10 Million already.

Pardon. It IS possible that thousands lined the streets and watched, but less than one thousand (that would be hundreds) joined the chants. 2000 watchers, say 500 joiners, in addition to 300 in the streets. OTOH when a reporter says "thousands" 2000 is presumably the lower limit - they could mean anywhere from 2000 to 9000, say. Id say 5000 is a safe guess. those who joined in are less than 20% - thats SOME - as opposed to a few? I dunno, could be. AP probably wont follow up on this. I could look for an Egyptian blogger, but you wont beleive them anyway.

	23-06-2005 20:32									#64
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo I believe that we are arguing about the current state of Egypt's politics. Not some hypothetical situation in the future.

we're arguing about whether an election without MB would be meaningful. If MB is the main opposition cause the secular opposition has been crushed in the past, and if the secular opposition is getting to close to surpassing the MB, and IF in an election, it was clear that the secular opposition would make real democratic changes of the kind that most MB supporters want (and which the Khatami moderates could NOT bring about in Iran) then the election would seem to me to be QUITE meaningful.

	23-06-2005 20:32									#65
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark I did not say otherwise (though the Sunni arabs seem to be having second thoughts now.

So sunny joe you thought that Sunnis would follow the boycott announced by their leaders? How pessimistic of you

quote: You mean on January 29, when it was pretty clear what was going to happen on the 30th? youre right, few were surprised, except at how quiet the day was. In June? In August? Even in November. It doesnt take that much to be right about whats going to happen the next day.

Many people claimed the elections hearelded the end of the insurgency-they have been showns..blah, blah, blah.

That did not happen. That is where the lack of surprise comes in.

quote: OMG, their first real democratic govt ever, and it takes them two whole months to form a cabinet!! Obvioulsy you dont follow say, Israeli politics closely.

OMG! The Israelis don;t have a timeline set up by which tiime their supposed to have a consitution, a timeline set up prior to the very elections!

quote: no one knows if it will be delayed by two weeks, either. Or two months. Or not at all. No one know if the Iranian govt isnt about to collapse. "No one knows X" isnt a meaningful statement. They HAVE formed a govt. They have entered into negotiations with they Sunnis (including AMS and IIP), who seem quite willing to participate, but bargained over number of reps. They have reached an agreement in principle on the number of Sunni reps, and are now arguing over which Sunnis get chosen. Geez, political give and take.

And thus, what's going on with the constitution?

Give and take will be much harder when it comes to whom controls Kirkut, the northenr oil, the amount of autotnomy for ther Kurds, and the role of Islam in the government.

That's what to come, so the artificial timelines set up prior to the elections might obviously not be met. That's a great first message, no? Makes you wonder about the whole setting up of timelines.

quote: So now youre saying body counts are more important than political progress?

No. I am saying that claims that the elections marked a huge and long term defeat for the insurgents have proven, well, wrong.

	23-06-2005 20:34									#66
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Pardon. It IS possible that thousands lined the streets and watched, but less than one thousand (that would be hundreds) joined the chants. 2000 watchers, say 500 joiners, in addition to 300 in the streets. OTOH when a reporter says "thousands" 2000 is presumably the lower limit - they could mean anywhere from 2000 to 9000, say. Id say 5000 is a safe guess. those who joined in are less than 20% - thats SOME - as opposed to a few? I dunno, could be. AP probably wont follow up on this. I could look for an Egyptian blogger, but you wont beleive them anyway.

Now you are engaging in a hypothetical numbers game, to what end?

	23-06-2005 20:43									#67
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An interesting round-up of the Arab media:

http://www.fromallangles.com/newspa...tries/egypt.htm

Rice's comments gardnered only attacks from Saudi funded or Egyptian official press. Nothing from anyone else, probably because more important things are afoot in the ME right now.

	23-06-2005 20:45									#68
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quote: Originally posted by GePap "So sunny joe you thought that Sunnis would follow the boycott announced by their leaders? How pessimistic of you " Its not clear how many followed the boycott, and how many stayed home out of fear. I never thought the turnout would be as high as in the Shia areas. Sunni arab turnout was about 15 to 20% overall, and was above zero even in Fallujah. Not great, not bad. quote: You mean on January 29, when it was pretty clear what was going to happen on the 30th? youre right, few were surprised, except at how quiet the day was. In June? In August? Even in November. It doesnt take that much to be right about whats going to happen the next day. "Many people claimed the elections hearelded the end of the insurgency-they have been showns..blah, blah, blah. That did not happen. That is where the lack of surprise comes in." So, if something i dont think will happen, happens, but doesnt lead to the result some people claim, then im right? Try this one out = Some right wingers claim that theres NO global warming, AND that if it happened (which they insist it wont) the economy would adjust. So IF global warming happens, BUT the economy adjust, are these folks right about global warming? BTW, I dont think i ever said the elections heralded the immediate end of the insurgency. quote: OMG, their first real democratic govt ever, and it takes them two whole months to form a cabinet!! Obvioulsy you dont follow say, Israeli politics closely. OMG! The Israelis don;t have a timeline set up by which tiime their supposed to have a consitution, a timeline set up prior to the very elections! OMG, cause a piece of paper has a timeline on it, all hell will break loose if they miss a deadline!!! quote: no one knows if it will be delayed by two weeks, either. Or two months. Or not at all. No one know if the Iranian govt isnt about to collapse. "No one knows X" isnt a meaningful statement. They HAVE formed a govt. They have entered into negotiations with they Sunnis (including AMS and IIP), who seem quite willing to participate, but bargained over number of reps. They have reached an agreement in principle on the number of Sunni reps, and are now arguing over which Sunnis get chosen. Geez, political give and take. "And thus, what's going on with the constitution? Give and take will be much harder when it comes to whom controls Kirkut, the northenr oil, the amount of autotnomy for ther Kurds, and the role of Islam in the government. That's what to come, so the artificial timelines set up prior to the elections might obviously not be met. That's a great first message, no? Makes you wonder about the whole setting up of timelines." quote: So now youre saying body counts are more important than political progress? No. I am saying that claims that the elections marked a huge and long term defeat for the insurgents have proven, well, wrong.

We dont know if they were a long term defeat, since they only happened a few months ago.

	23-06-2005 20:46									#69
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And a round-up of Egyptian news:

http://www.fromallangles.com/newspa...tries/egypt.htm

The protests don't even register. It seems the Arab press does not see them as significant, as opposed to say, events in Lebanon right after Harriri's death.

	23-06-2005 20:48									#70
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quote: Originally posted by GePap ] Rice's comments gardnered only attacks from Saudi funded or Egyptian official press. Nothing from anyone else, probably because more important things are afoot in the ME right now.

feel free to post about them, then.

	23-06-2005 20:48									#71
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quote: we're arguing about whether an election without MB would be meaningful. If MB is the main opposition cause the secular opposition has been crushed in the past, and if the secular opposition is getting to close to surpassing the MB, and IF in an election, it was clear that the secular opposition would make real democratic changes of the kind that most MB supporters want (and which the Khatami moderates could NOT bring about in Iran) then the election would seem to me to be QUITE meaningful.

How does that quote imply that the secular opposition is close to surpassing MB? What it says is that if the MB were inactive, the secular opposition might catch up eventually. That's a very diffent statement.

	23-06-2005 20:51									#72
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: we're arguing about whether an election without MB would be meaningful. If MB is the main opposition cause the secular opposition has been crushed in the past, and if the secular opposition is getting to close to surpassing the MB, and IF in an election, it was clear that the secular opposition would make real democratic changes of the kind that most MB supporters want (and which the Khatami moderates could NOT bring about in Iran) then the election would seem to me to be QUITE meaningful. How does that quote imply that the secular opposition is close to surpassing MB? What it says is that if the MB were inactive, the secular opposition might catch up. That's a very diffent statement.

"Worried that the proactive steps taken by secular Egyptian reformers like the Kifaya (Enough) Movement could cost the Brotherhood its position as Egypt's leading opposition movement has stirred the organization into action."

it doesnt say IF. It just says theyre worried, and they are responding by taking action.

	23-06-2005 20:56									#73
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You omitted the previous sentence: "[The MB] has been roused from a public slumber."

So IF the MB doesn't stop its public slumber, the secular groups can overtake them. Which is pretty damn obvious - inactive organizations typically get overtaken by active organizations.

	23-06-2005 21:07									#74
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo You omitted the previous sentence: "[The MB] has been roused from a public slumber." So IF the MB doesn't stop its public slumber, the secular groups can overtake them. Which is pretty damn obvious - inactive organizations typically get overtaken by active organizations.

by the same token, well organized organization typically are more popular than ones that are not well organized. The MB benefits from a legacy of being well-organized. Kifaya is just getting organized now.

	23-06-2005 21:09									#75
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quote: Originally posted by GePap And a round-up of Egyptian news: http://www.fromallangles.com/newspa...tries/egypt.htm The protests don't even register. It seems the Arab press does not see them as significant, as opposed to say, events in Lebanon right after Harriri's death.

agreed. Those events, especially the massive anti-Syrian demos, led to the withdrawl of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Now who was emphasizing their importance, and who was trying to minimize it?

	23-06-2005 21:18									#76
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark agreed. Those events, especially the massive anti-Syrian demos, led to the withdrawl of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Now who was emphasizing their importance, and who was trying to minimize it?

Hmm, no one.

I emphasized the importance of the Hizbullah march, which was then overshadowed by the following opposition march.

That variable memory again.

	23-06-2005 21:46									#77
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Hmm, no one. I emphasized the importance of the Hizbullah march, which was then overshadowed by the following opposition march. That variable memory again.

and why was the march by an established and well organanized group important, other than to minimize the importance of the opposition group?

	23-06-2005 21:47									#78
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More factw re Egypt, from Haaretz:


"Last update - 07:27 23/06/2005
Deal close on Egyptian troops' deployment along Rafah border

By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent

Israel and Egypt are close to agreeing on the deployment of 800 Egyptian policemen along the western side of the Philadelphi route on the Rafah border. On the other hand, it looks like Israel is retracting for now the idea of expanding the deployment to the border segment between Kerem Shalom in the north and Eilat in the south.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who had previously expressed support for the deployment of between 3,000 and 5,000 Egyptian policemen along the more southern segment, told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee this week that the deployment would be restricted at this point to 800 policemen across from Rafah. The Egyptian policemen, who are slated to deploy in the region close to the Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip, are meant to assist in combating weapons smuggling into the territories.

Deploying these policemen will speed up an Israeli decision on clearing the route of Israel Defense Forces troops, thereby making the Gaza pullout complete"

	23-06-2005 22:11									#79
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"And thus, what's going on with the constitution? "

ask, and you shall receive:

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraq's Sunni Arabs endorsed a list of 15 men Thursday to represent the minority on a Shiite-dominated committee drafting the new constitution.

The agreement removes the final obstacle hampering efforts to get the minority's representatives to sit on the committee, which has just until mid-August to draft a charter to guide Iraq in the post- Saddam Hussein era.

The list of 15 was approved by a group of 50 Sunni Arab religious, tribal and political leaders who met in Iraq's old parliament building in downtown Baghdad.

They and a single representative of Iraq's small Sabian community, will sit on a special committee that will be formed in tandem with an existing 55-member body exclusively made up of elected legislators.

"The atmosphere in the meeting was very cordial," said Abdul-Rahman al-Noami, one of the two Sunni Arab legislators on the 55-member committee. "We cannot satisfy everyone on the Sunni street but I can say that we have achieved about 90 percent of this and that's excellent."

	23-06-2005 22:38									#80
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That says nothing about the constitution, but instead about Sunni representation at the table when they move on about writing it.

	23-06-2005 22:46									#81
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quote: Originally posted by GePap That says nothing about the constitution, but instead about Sunni representation at the table when they move on about writing it.

You asked "whats going on"

Whats going on has been the selection of the Sunni representatives. Which is now complete, apparently as of today. Friday is the muslim holy day, so I guess its Saturday at the earliest before the sessions begin.

	30-06-2005 19:41									#82
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...5062801274.html

So, the leader of al-Ghad, Nour, has been arrested on trumped on charges. Apparantly, he was the only person campaigning against Mubarak. Since the MB, Kifaya are barred from running by the election law, I don't see who's left (not that it makes much of a difference, given how absurdly fraudulent the referendum vote was).

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N28399306.htm

And the House tried to reduce military aid to Egypt, but the bill died pretty badly - 326 to 87.

	30-06-2005 19:43									#83
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...5062801274.html So, the leader of al-Ghad, Nour, has been arrested on trumped on charges. Apparantly, he was the only person campaigning against Mubarak. Since the MB, Kifaya are barred from running by the election law, I don't see who's left (not that it makes much of a difference, given how absurdly fraudulent the referendum vote was). http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N28399306.htm And the House tried to reduce military aid to Egypt, but the bill died pretty badly - 326 to 87.

Youre a tad late. He was arrested. He was then released under pressure from Rice. Hes on trial, though not in govt custody. And hes dominating his trial, from what I hear.

from the WaPo article:
"Police jailed Nour for six weeks last winter while the forgery case was under investigation. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice canceled a visit to Cairo in response, but came to the capital last week and met with democracy activists, including Nour, who is free and who has been stumping for president."

I suggest all click the link and actually READ the WaPo piece.

	30-06-2005 19:48									#84
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Wow, he is out on bail.

Now can Rice make it so he is found innocent after a bunch of his supporters "confessed"?

They don't even have to jail him, just convict him and make it thus illegal for him to run.

	30-06-2005 19:53									#85
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Wow, he is out on bail. Now can Rice make it so he is found innocent after a bunch of his supporters "confessed"?

I dont know, why dont we wait and see what happens?

I will note the article says nothing like this has happened at a trial in Egypt before. It suggests ferment.

oh, and the article also has this

"Political protests have become common in Cairo during the past few months, with an increasing number of participants. Organizers include a variety of political and nongovernmental groups under the label Kifaya, or Enough. The Muslim Brotherhood, which Egyptians widely regard as the largest and best-organized opposition group, has also taken to the streets. On Tuesday, Brotherhood leaders called for joint demonstrations of all reform movements."

but our local mideast expert said

"Are you high on something?

A few hundred people march a couple of blocks, then go home, and all of a sudden this means change?

Jesus, H. Christ, you must be high.

But if your track record in Egypt turns out to be as sterling as your Iraq record, then Mubarak is nice and safe until he dies or retires."

	30-06-2005 19:58									#86
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those protest having startted long before Rice opened her mouth and based on internal realities and not US pressure.

You point in this thread is just how important Rice's comments were.

Those two things are different, or don;t you understand that?

	30-06-2005 20:01									#87
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quote: Originally posted by GePap those protest having startted long before Rice opened her mouth and based on internal realities and not US pressure. You point in this thread is just how important Rice's comments were. Those two things are different, or don;t you understand that?

The OP was about Rice. A subsequent post was about a demo in Cairo. Which you lashed out at, claiming i was focusing on something trivial.

When exactly did the protests start GePap? Which month? Tell me, cause the WaPo didnt tell me, and you know SO MUCH.

And I never said that Rices comments were the dominating events in Egyptian politics.

	30-06-2005 20:04									#88
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark The OP was about Rice. A subsequent post was about a demo in Cairo. Which you lashed out at, claiming i was focusing on something trivial. When exactly did the protests start GePap? Which month? Tell me, cause the WaPo didnt tell me, and you know SO MUCH.

Well, by the articles already posted: DECEMBER. Re-read them.

quote: And I never said that Rices comments were the dominating events in Egyptian politics.

No, you didn't. You said they were important. I argue that given the overall position of the admin. they are not.

	30-06-2005 20:23									#89
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Well, by the articles already posted: DECEMBER. Re-read them. .

ah yes, December. Shortly after the demonstrations in Lebanon. But there COULDNT have been any outside influence on Egypt, it was PURELY internal. And OF COURSE the events in Lebanon had nothing to do with American policy, they were simply the result of the Harariri assasination, which itself was unrelated to pressure on Syria.

	30-06-2005 20:26									#90
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark ah yes, December. Shortly after the demonstrations in Lebanon. But there COULDNT have been any outside influence on Egypt, it was PURELY internal. And OF COURSE the events in Lebanon had nothing to do with American policy, they were simply the result of the Harariri assasination, which itself was unrelated to pressure on Syria.

Hariri was assasinated ON FEBRUARY 14. 2005.