22-06-2005 22:07									#1
	Lance Armstrong vs. Jeff Gordon Support Apolyton

The Tour de' France is coming up next month, and Lance is saying that it's his last race. Will he win?

Also, how much more of a sport is bicycle racing than say NASCAR? Driving takes some skill and physical effort, maybe less physical effort but more skill, but both sports are highly technical.

Would "sport" even be the right word?

	22-06-2005 22:24									#2
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Well, 3500 km (2200 miles?) in three weeks across France while climbing the Alps and the Pyrennees(sp?) on a bicycle vs driving a car on a race circuit?

Tough choice...

	22-06-2005 22:27									#3
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do you know how hard it is to drive in a peloton without crashing into everyone?

	22-06-2005 22:30									#4
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About a million times easier and a billion times less athletic than the Tour de France?

	22-06-2005 23:00									#5
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lance is the man

	22-06-2005 23:01									#6
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People consistently underestimate the physical and mental strength needed to drive race cars. The heat build up in the car is one thing, but the constant concentration needed is even worse.

	22-06-2005 23:11									#7
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I have no doubt that it's not easy to drive a race car - but it's not in the same league as being one of the best endurance bike racers in the world.

	22-06-2005 23:13									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui People consistently underestimate the physical and mental strength needed to drive race cars. The heat build up in the car is one thing, but the constant concentration needed is even worse.

Race cars, yes.

NASCARs, not so much...

	22-06-2005 23:14									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Kontiki I have no doubt that it's not easy to drive a race car - but it's not in the same league as being one of the best endurance bike racers in the world.

-- its not even close



I think Lance will win IF he has trained as he has in other years. I just don't know if he has or will have the drive to force himself to endure the pain necessary to win. I suspect he has and the chant of "just one last time" will be enough to drive him

	22-06-2005 23:26									#10
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I just looked at the route and there are once again some impressive climbs, . . . I believe the earliest occurs on day 9 and it is then that quite a bit of the story will unfold

	22-06-2005 23:37									#11
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day 9? thats pretty early. usually the first two weeks are flats.

	22-06-2005 23:40									#12
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stages 10, 11, and 14 are the only real tough mountain ones (16 to a lesser extent)

Last edited by Lawrence of Arabia on 22-06-2005 at 23:46

	23-06-2005 01:02									#13
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Last year, when it was clear that USPS had the strongest team, Tour officials changed the rules and put a cap on the advantage from the Team Time Trial stage. Are there any interesting rule changes this year?

	23-06-2005 01:26									#14
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Day 9

Vosges (88)
Km 6,5 Col de Grosse Pierre Alt. 955 m Ascent of 3,1 km at a 6,4% gradient
Km 22 Col des Feignes Alt. 992 m Ascent of 9 km at a 2,9% gradient
Km 32,5 Col de Bramont Alt. 956 m Ascent of 3,4 km at a 6,5% gradient
Haut-Rhin (68)
Km 64 Le Grand Ballon Alt. 1 338 m Ascent of 21,9 km at a 3,6% gradient
Km 98 Col de Bussang Alt. 731 m Ascent of 6,2 km at a 4,5% gradient
Vosges (88)
Km 115 Le Ballon d'Alsace Alt. 1 171m Ascent of 9,1 km at a 6,8% gradient

The last peak could be something but with a fairly long downhill and flat after that, I don't see it as being a stage where an overall contender tries to make their break. Too early in the race and its too easy for the peloton to make up ground

Its not as tough as some others but definitely qualifies as a mountain stage. They are classing 9 stages as flat, 6 as mountain and 3 as medium mountain plus 2 ITT and one TTT.

Stage 10 is one where we see what is happening

Grenoble > Courchevel
Mardi 12 juillet - Distance: 192 km
Savoie (73)
Km 118 Cormet de Roselend Alt. 1 968 m Ascent of 20,1 km at a 6% gradient
Km 192 Courchevel Alt. 2 004 m Ascent of 21,8 km at a 6,3% gradient

Two long climbs and a mountain finish makes this a good stage for creating some gaps in the GC. I see this as a stage where a typical Armstron tactic would be to set a punishing pace, but not to try to gain much time on his main rivals. But it is a stage where some also rans can lose a lot of time

With 11 the next day

Courchevel > Briançon
Mercredi 13 juillet - Distance: 173 km
Savoie (74)
Km 55 Col de la Madeleine Alt. 2 000 m Ascent of 25,4 km at a 6,1% gradient
Km 110 Col du Télégraphe Alt. 1 566 m Ascent of 12 km at a 6,7% gradient
Km 133 Col du Galibier Alt. 2 645 m Ascent of 17,5 km at a 6,9% gradient


ITs a 1-2 punch where the race gets sorted out.

Oh and LoA, you missed stage 15 as a tough mountain stage-- The mountains are smaller but look at those gradients


Haute-Garonne (31)
Km 85 Col du Portet d'Aspet Alt. 1 069 m Ascent of 2,7 km at a 8,4% gradient
Km 100,5 Col de Menté Alt. 1 349 m Ascent of 7 km at a 8,1% gradient
Km 137,5 Col du Portillon Alt. 1 320 m Ascent of 8,3 km at a 7,2% gradient
Hautes-Pyrénées (65)
Km 162 Col de Peyresourde Alt. 1 569 m Ascent of 13 km at a 6,9% gradient
Km 182,5 Col de Val Louron-Azet Alt. 1 580 m Ascent of 7,5 km at a 7,9% gradient
Km 205 Saint-Lary Soulan (Pla d'Adet) Alt. 1 669 m Ascent of 10,7 km at a 7,6% gradient

With a rest day following and a mountaintop finish, I expect this stage to be where contenders make a big move. The last 4 peaks are pretty close together and I don't see the peloton catching up

	23-06-2005 01:29									#15
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quote: Originally posted by pchang Last year, when it was clear that USPS had the strongest team, Tour officials changed the rules and put a cap on the advantage from the Team Time Trial stage. Are there any interesting rule changes this year?

None that I have seen yet. I actually don't like the TTT rule changes. I think a team should just live with their time regardless of what it is

	23-06-2005 02:15									#16
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quote: Courchevel > Briançon Mercredi 13 juillet - Distance: 173 km Savoie (74) Km 55 Col de la Madeleine Alt. 2 000 m Ascent of 25,4 km at a 6,1% gradient Km 110 Col du Télégraphe Alt. 1 566 m Ascent of 12 km at a 6,7% gradient Km 133 Col du Galibier Alt. 2 645 m Ascent of 17,5 km at a 6,9% gradient ------ Haute-Garonne (31) Km 85 Col du Portet d'Aspet Alt. 1 069 m Ascent of 2,7 km at a 8,4% gradient Km 100,5 Col de Menté Alt. 1 349 m Ascent of 7 km at a 8,1% gradient Km 137,5 Col du Portillon Alt. 1 320 m Ascent of 8,3 km at a 7,2% gradient Hautes-Pyrénées (65) Km 162 Col de Peyresourde Alt. 1 569 m Ascent of 13 km at a 6,9% gradient Km 182,5 Col de Val Louron-Azet Alt. 1 580 m Ascent of 7,5 km at a 7,9% gradient Km 205 Saint-Lary Soulan (Pla d'Adet) Alt. 1 669 m Ascent of 10,7 km at a 7,6% gradient

Looks like I have to take leave from work these two days to watch these on tv. And people still wonder what is more difficult, NASCAR or the Tour

	23-06-2005 02:21									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Flubber None that I have seen yet. I actually don't like the TTT rule changes. I think a team should just live with their time regardless of what it is

Last year seemed to be an attempt to make it harder for Lance to win without actually being too blatant about it (reduce his team time trial advantage and reduce the difficulty of the mountain stages). Hopefully, they will just run a straight race this year. I didn't really mind the overall reduction in the difficulty of the mountain stages, but I thought the team trial rule changes went too far.

	23-06-2005 02:43									#18
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quote: Courchevel > Briançon Mercredi 13 juillet - Distance: 173 km Savoie (74) Km 55 Col de la Madeleine Alt. 2 000 m Ascent of 25,4 km at a 6,1% gradient Km 110 Col du Télégraphe Alt. 1 566 m Ascent of 12 km at a 6,7% gradient Km 133 Col du Galibier Alt. 2 645 m Ascent of 17,5 km at a 6,9% gradient ------ Haute-Garonne (31) Km 85 Col du Portet d'Aspet Alt. 1 069 m Ascent of 2,7 km at a 8,4% gradient Km 100,5 Col de Menté Alt. 1 349 m Ascent of 7 km at a 8,1% gradient Km 137,5 Col du Portillon Alt. 1 320 m Ascent of 8,3 km at a 7,2% gradient Hautes-Pyrénées (65) Km 162 Col de Peyresourde Alt. 1 569 m Ascent of 13 km at a 6,9% gradient Km 182,5 Col de Val Louron-Azet Alt. 1 580 m Ascent of 7,5 km at a 7,9% gradient Km 205 Saint-Lary Soulan (Pla d'Adet) Alt. 1 669 m Ascent of 10,7 km at a 7,6% gradient

Man, I don't even want to do this by car, let alone on a bike.

Lance is not as good as last year but neither is the opposition.
He's got a good chance to win.

	23-06-2005 02:48									#19
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quote: Originally posted by pchang Last year seemed to be an attempt to make it harder for Lance to win without actually being too blatant about it (reduce his team time trial advantage and reduce the difficulty of the mountain stages). Hopefully, they will just run a straight race this year. I didn't really mind the overall reduction in the difficulty of the mountain stages, but I thought the team trial rule changes went too far.

I liked neither change but I think the lesser mountains one was within the normal range of what the tour has been in the past ( just on the "easier" end of the range). If they started taking away the big mountain stages I would be very disappointed.

One thing-- I sort of wish they were back to the Alp d'Huez this year. It just seem in many ways to be Armstrong's mountain and win or lose I would have liked to see him tackle it one more time

	23-06-2005 02:53									#20
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quote: Originally posted by alva Lance is not as good as last year but neither is the opposition. He's got a good chance to win.

I make no assumptions as to where Lance stands until I see him falter in the Tour itself. In the past folks have underestimated him and I doubt we have ever een him ride his hardest. Last year was typical . . he rode hard in a couple of stages and outclasses the field and could just content himself with sticking with his main rivals the rest of the way.

	23-06-2005 02:53									#21
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The other mountains on that list are far more grand than l'Alpe d'Huez, it just get's alot of PR.

Oh, and Lance didn't like his trip over it last year.

quote: Last year seemed to be an attempt to make it harder for Lance to win without actually being too blatant about it

They've been doing this for years btw, not just agains Armstrong.
When Hinault was big, nearly every stage stage was a time trial and there were no mountains to climb at all.
[/exageration]

	23-06-2005 02:58									#22
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quote: Originally posted by alva The other mountains on that list are far more grand than l'Alpe d'Huez, it just get's alot of PR.

True-- there is just something about that mountainand it has been one where things tend to happen (big separations)

quote: Originally posted by alva Oh, and Lance didn't like his trip over it last year.

Irrelevant whether he enjoyed it. I just would have liked to have seen him ride it again. I'm not suprised its not on the tour since theyusually take a few years between visits for most of the locations

	23-06-2005 03:01									#23
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quote: True-- there is just something about that mountainand it has been one where things tend to happen (big separations)

Well yeah but only because it's always the last one to be climbed.

quote: I'm not suprised its not on the tour since theyusually take a few years between visits for most of the locations

It's very expensive to get the Tour to your city.

	23-06-2005 03:08									#24
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armstrongs style of pedalling means that he only has real advantage when the gradient is more then 8% (the red zone on most maps of the tour.) between 6 and 8%, Ullrich has a slight advantage, and below that, they are pretty much equal with the rest of the group.

this tour has less red zone scents, and more 6 - 8% because they, for the second year, want to make it a closer race.

	23-06-2005 03:29									#25
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quote: Originally posted by alva Well yeah but only because it's always the last one to be climbed.

Well YEAH!! It was always a great one to watch people drop on the previous mountains until there would be a core of the strongest climbers left at the base of that last mountain, perhaps with each of the contenders having one worker-bee rider left with them. Then to see that UPS blue move to the front and foce the pace until Armstrong jumped was something else.

	23-06-2005 03:32									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia armstrongs style of pedalling means that he only has real advantage when the gradient is more then 8% (the red zone on most maps of the tour.) between 6 and 8%, Ullrich has a slight advantage, and below that, they are pretty much equal with the rest of the group. .

Interesting, I had seen nothing on that. Is this a scientific ( ie labratory) analysis of their pedalling methods or is it more anecdotal based on results from stages ( either on the tour or other races) that they have raced?

	23-06-2005 04:13									#27
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quote: Interesting, I had seen nothing on that. Is this a scientific ( ie labratory) analysis of their pedalling methods or is it more anecdotal based on results from stages ( either on the tour or other races) that they have raced?

im not sure. I watched the entire tour de france last year (minute for minute) in europe on TSR or TF1, or Eurosport, and one of the commentators went into the strengths and weaknesses of the top competitors, and he mentioned this.

(i also had the chance to go see a race, which was loads of fun. we went to the last mountain stage, étape 18, annemasse to lons-le-saunier and camped out on the last peak, the 1320 meter high Col de la Faucille, right after the last turn, about 100 meters from the top. theres a little village up there. im also visible on certain video footages, right when the riders come around the corner. its pretty chill)

http://www.letour.fr/2004/presentat...urs_flash2.html