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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:37
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With 42,000 in upward revisions for May and June and 207,000 new jobs for July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced 249,000 new jobs in the US today. This brings the average number of new jobs to 191,000 per month so far this year.
The vast majority of these jobs are in the private sector, and those jobs that have been added by governments are mostly in education.
Rock on. 
quote:
WRAPUP 1-U.S. jobs growth unexpectedly strong in July
Fri Aug 5, 2005 9:03 AM ET
By Tim Ahmann
WASHINGTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth picked up last month as employers added 207,000 workers to their payrolls, a healthy gain that outstripped Wall Street expectations, a government report showed on Friday.
The unemployment rate held steady at the 2-3/4-year low of 5 percent reached in June, the Labor Department said.
The payrolls gain, spurred on by service-sector hiring, was stronger than expected by economists who had looked for an increase of 183,000 with the jobless rate steady.
"This is a crystal clear indication that the labor markets are very healthy and it reinforces the notion that the economy is growing in a healthy, sustainable way," said Dana Johnson, chief economist at Comerica in Detroit.
Prices for U.S. government bonds fell on the data and the dollar edged higher. Stocks futures were little changed.
While some economists thought the report might be skewed by Hurricane Dennis, which battered the Florida panhandle in mid-July, the department said the storm appeared to have no discernible impact on the figures.
A net upward revision of 42,000 to the combined job count for May and June contributed to the report's solid tenor. U.S. employers added 166,000 workers in June and 126,000 in May.
The pickup in job growth last month pushed this year's average monthly payroll gain to 191,000, a pace economists see as strong enough to slowly tighten the labor market.
The factory sector, which shed 4,000 workers last month, was one of the only weak spots. However, the Labor Department noted that an 11,000-job drop in auto manufacturing reflected larger-than-normal temporary plant shutdowns for retooling.
This was the last piece of significant economic data that Federal Reserve policy-makers will have to mull when they meet on Tuesday to set interest rates.
The Fed, which has raised the benchmark overnight lending rate at each of its last nine meetings, is widely expected to bump it up another quarter-percentage point to 3.5 percent next week.
Financial markets see the rate hitting 4 percent by year end, although the jobs report had some betting it could move even higher.
"The Fed is going to keep chugging along," said Robert MacIntosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management in Boston.
Average hourly earnings shot up six cents, or 0.4 percent, in July -- the biggest rise in a year. However, earnings are up just 2.7 percent over the past 12 months, suggesting wages have yet to become a big inflationary concern.
The service side of the economy created the lion's share of the jobs. Retailers added 50,000 workers, in part reflecting job growth at automobile dealers hiring to cope with a surge of shoppers enticed by special sales incentives.
The U.S. economy grew a solid 3.4 percent in the second quarter and would have turned in an even stronger performance if producers had not sold off inventories to meet strong demand. With inventories lean, producers are expected to bump up production in the current third quarter. |
Last edited by DanS on 05-08-2005 at 20:43
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mrmitchell
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DanS sorry...what was that link for state by state statistics again?
'
edit nm i think i found it
total private: AR added 4,000 jobs
total nonfarm seasonally adjusted: AR added 3,600 jobs
total nonfarm not adjusted: AR lost 700 jobs
DanS new question: What does "seasonally adjusted" mean for labor statistics?
seasonally adjusted - 1,500 of those new jobs are government jobs but i guess this is about normal? that would be a bit under a third of all new jobs
Last edited by mrmitchell on 05-08-2005 at 23:05
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:) Smiley
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USCA, Berkeley
Feb 2001
time: 21:37
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191,000 new jobs per month, hmmm
295,700,000 people in the USA
Annual growth rate of 0.92%
Equals 226,000 new Americans per month.
147,000,000 Americans are in labor force or unemployed, meaning roughly 1/2 work or are looking for work.
Equals a demand for 113,000 new jobs a month.
So there's about 80,000 more new jobs than needed to keep with capacity per month, not bad, so long as the job counts are by worker and not by job, as there are people who work multiple jobs.
quote:
The service side of the economy created the lion's share of the jobs. Retailers added 50,000 workers, in part reflecting job growth at automobile dealers hiring to cope with a surge of shoppers enticed by special sales incentives. |
The size of the auto sales industry is disturbing; there are more people selling cars than making cars. I question how sustainable this is.
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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:37
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quote:
Originally posted by pchang
Global demand for oil has outstripped the capacity of any one organization to control its price. The price of oil will temporarily stabilize at higher and higher levels until a suitable alternative becomes viable. At that point, the price of oil will stabilize for good or perhaps even drop a little. |
That's only a temporary phenomenon and would only become permanent if OPEC doesn't get with it and invest in much more production.
The percentage of oil used that is supplied by OPEC is going up, not down. That's the long-term trend. And OPEC hasn't stopped being a cartel, last I checked, even if it misjudged demand this once.
Last edited by DanS on 07-08-2005 at 04:28
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Adam Smith
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Maryland, USA
Jan 1970
time: 00:37
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quote:
Originally posted by mrmitchell What does "seasonally adjusted" mean for labor statistics? |
Simple explanation:
Suppose you have data on how many people are employed in Arkansas every month. You notice that every December over a period of years the number of people employed goes up by 10 percent due to Christmas retail sales. If employment goes up by 11 percent this December, then employment is up by 11 percent on an unadjusted basis, and by 11 - 10 = 1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 10 percent is what we expect to see every December anyway, so the 1 percent seasonally adjusted is the additional employment beyond what we would normally expect to see.
quote:
Originally posted by mrmitchell total nonfarm seasonally adjusted: AR added 3,600 jobs
total nonfarm not adjusted: AR lost 700 jobs |
This is the above situation in reverse. AR lost 700 jobs unadjusted. But they normally lose 700 + 3,600 = 4,300 this month for whatever reason. This means that there is additional employment of 4,300 - 700 = 3,600 beyond what we would normally expect. 3,600 fewer people lost jobs than they normally do this time of year in AR.
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05-08-2005 20:06
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