30-08-2005 02:30									#1
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I have been thinking about the likely possible outcome of the Iraqi constitutional process.

Here's the most probable scenario as I see it. (1) A credible Sunni voice rises in opposition. (2) This opposition is expressed by high Sunni turnout at the ballot box. (3) The constitution is rejected, the parliament is dissolved, and new parliamentary elections are held. (4) A new constitution is written, this time with legitimate Sunni interlocutors.

All in all, I think this is a reasonably good outcome, no matter what I might think about the actual text of this present proposed constitution. There is a small chance that a more active civil war could take place in a vacuum of power, but on the other hand, I doubt an insurgency would have much legs when everybody's voting. (Besides, sometimes I wonder whether it would be better to just get it over and have a final civil war.)

Discuss.

	30-08-2005 02:36									#2
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I don't think you're wrong. I guess there's a first time for everything.

	30-08-2005 03:18									#3
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Pie in the sky wishful thinking. The Shiites and Kurds, who are the majority, and who in a few months will defnitelly have the most guns, aren't going to sit back and wait for a year more or so to convince some Sunni's that Federalism is the way to go.

There will be heavy pressure to simply pass this constitution, even if that entails derailing Sunni attempts to vote the charter down.

	30-08-2005 03:19									#4
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"Attempts" to vote the charter down? Doesn't seem to me that they'll have any problem voting it down in October. They have a large majority in a small minority of provinces.

	30-08-2005 03:22									#5
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One question:

Will the constitution be made public?

So far there's all this talk about it, but very few details about what is actually in it, or what they are arguing about.

	30-08-2005 03:23									#6
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quote: Will the constitution be made public?

As I understand it, 5 million copies will be made and given out with the rations.

	30-08-2005 03:28									#7
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Three provinces have to vote against, and Sunnis control four provinces. However, there was massive vote fraud in the January election, so it's enterirely possible this constitution will be shoved down their throats.

	30-08-2005 03:31									#8
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quote: Originally posted by DanS "Attempts" to vote the charter down? Doesn't seem to me that they'll have any problem voting it down in October. They have a large majority in a small minority of provinces.

The Sunnis have an obvious majority in 1 province. It is assumed they have a majority in 3 more. There haven;t been any accurate census in the country for a while. So while Anbar is a given, there are another three in which an influx of kurds or shiite voters might stop the Sunni's.

And, of course, who ever said the rules won;t be changed mid game?

	30-08-2005 03:32									#9
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When is the vote?

	30-08-2005 03:33									#10
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quote: The Sunnis have an obvious majority in 1 province. It is assumed they have a majority in 3 more. There haven;t been any accurate census in the country for a while. So while Anbar is a given, there are another three in which an influx of kurds or shiite voters might stop the Sunni's.

While I don't know these details, you are correct that we don't know the true counts in these provinces. Point taken.

	30-08-2005 03:39									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Dr Strangelove When is the vote?

October 15. If the charter fails, then new parliamentary elections take place in December.