01-09-2005 21:58									#1
	The Economic Consequences of Katrina Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Let's leave aside the immediate cost of damage, an estimated $25 billion in insured property and $16 billion in uninsured property. Let's ignore the fact that several million people are temporarily displaced and suddenly unemployed.

What will be the long term consequences of the storm.

First, there's the shut down oil production. It's sending gas prices spiking. It will increase the cost of transporting everything, like food, for example.

Rebuilding is going to kill the housing boom, as demand for building materials and construction crews in the affected areas is going to explode.

Port shipping in other areas will increase. Ft. Lauderdale already expects to pick up the banana shipments that used to go through Biloxi.

Agriculture in the effected areas is likely to be completely disrupted. I imagine cotton will become more expensive.

What other effects do you see?

	01-09-2005 22:15									#2
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Probably just the exacerbation of existing problems. I would hope that we'll resolve these, but we'll most likely continue to bandaid them.

	01-09-2005 22:16									#3
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on the radio, I heard an interview of an EPA spokesperson saying the entire GDP of the United States is not enough to clean up the environmental contamination of this disaster...

even if (maybe when) New Orleans is drained, the Gulf area around it will be contaminated for a decade...

	01-09-2005 22:17									#4
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Jesus.

The Gulf is cleaned out by the Gulf Stream, which means that the waters off Florida are going to be polluted as well.

	01-09-2005 22:30									#5
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Contaminated with what?

	01-09-2005 22:30									#6
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Gas prices are spiking not cause of the loss of oil production (the opening of the Strat Pet Reserve has restored order to the markets for crude) but due to the loss of key pipelines that carry gasoline from areas west of NO to the east. and to the loss of refinery capacity - there were 9 refineries in the NO area,IIUC, and 8 are shut.

One normally expects a spike in the prices of lumber and building materials, but I wonder if the delays in making reconstruction possible will dampen that.

Most important is loss of the port. Import items, like coffee and bananas, can be shifted relatively easily, as they move inland by truck anyway. The biggest issue I expect, after the energy related ones, is export grain.

	01-09-2005 22:32									#7
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quote: Originally posted by VetLegion Contaminated with what?

The area along the lower Mississippi is known as Cancer Alley, because of all the petrolium distilleries and chemical plants. All that crap is likely washing out into the ocean right now. In addition, chemicals from farms are running out into the coean because of the extensive rainfall and flooding. Plus all the wrecked boats leaking fuel, plus all the household chemicals, and god knows what else.

	01-09-2005 22:42									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Sava on the radio, I heard an interview of an EPA spokesperson saying the entire GDP of the United States is not enough to clean up the environmental contamination of this disaster... even if (maybe when) New Orleans is drained, the Gulf area around it will be contaminated for a decade...

The same quotes appeared in the Washington Post this morning. This is truly irresponsible **** on the part of a government official with an axe to grind. The guy who said this was one of the authors of the EPA's Superfund legislation. He has consistently been pushing for Superfund sites to be cleaned up until there is "no additional risk" from the site, even though courts, Congress, and his superiors have told him otherwise.

Use of the "no additional risk" standard has lead to truly stupid decisions. For example, in one train derailment near a school in Marshville, NC, the site had to be cleaned up until a child from the school could eat dirt from the site every single day he attended school and have no additional risk of cancer. If you insist on cleaning up to this standard, then sure the entire US GDP wouldnt be enough to clean it up. But the law of diminishing returns, common sense, and, fortunately, the courts, have said we can do a quite capable job of cleaning up for considerably less.

PS: The guy who said this, repeatedly, should be fired.

Edit:
As of 7 pm last night, there has been one leaking oil barge and two leaking railroad tank cars identified.

	01-09-2005 22:47									#9
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Rebuilding is going to kill the housing boom, as demand for building materials and construction crews in the affected areas is going to explode.

Wouldn't this increase the prices of houses further by restricting supply?

	01-09-2005 22:53									#10
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Well, there's got to be a way to make some money out of this. Maybe some stocks will see some good price drops. One can only hope.

	01-09-2005 22:54									#11
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Having Adam Smith present to inject some sense into the various wild claims popping up.

	01-09-2005 22:57									#12
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I would be interested in hearing AS talk about the rail and port links.

As I understand it, most of the goods coming in on the Gulf Coast go through Houston and can be rerouted around NO. Is this correct?

It still seems that we can't get a good assessment of the oil port and the refineries.

	01-09-2005 23:11									#13
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I would be interested in hearing AS talk about the rail and port links. As I understand it, most of the goods coming in on the Gulf Coast go through Houston and can be rerouted around NO. Is this correct?

A good chunk of that has been brewing on my hard drive since this morning, so I can't really talk about it ... just yet.

	01-09-2005 23:28									#15
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Tampa also has a very large port, without having to add too much time to ship routes.

	01-09-2005 23:43									#16
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quote: Originally posted by VetLegion Contaminated with what?

the whole New Orleans area is one big rotting cesspool... bacteria... raw sewage... dead bodies... dead animals...

Adam Smith: any proof or are we supposed to just take your word on this personal attack on this guy?

	02-09-2005 01:05									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Sava Adam Smith: any proof or are we supposed to just take your word on this personal attack on this guy?

Well, there's THIS

quote: WASHINGTON — Hugh Kaufman, the most public rabble-rouser at the Environmental Protection Agency, is gesticulating wildly. He's explaining why it took him and his colleague, EPA Ombudsman Robert Martin, four months before they examined the agency's handling of the World Trade Center disaster. "Got a 91-year-old father. Got a mother in her mid-80s. I cook for them once a week," said Mr. Kaufman, leaning over the table. "I'm raising a 16-year-old daughter. And the whole world is going fekak and I've got 24 cases where people are being poisoned and EPA's trying to kill us, and some meshugenah A-rab is — some guy wants to go back to the 1600s."

quote: Mr. Kaufman will soon join a lawsuit filed by Mr. Martin against EPA Administrator Christie Todd Whitman that challenges the agency's attempt to fold the office of the ombudsman into part of the EPA's investigator general's office. At present, the office of the ombudsman operates as an independent watchdog, funded by the agency as part of the office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response. A hearing on the case will commence March 25 in federal district court in Washington. The EPA's attempt to move the office, Mr. Kaufman said, is an effort to stifle investigations. EPA officials counter that the General Accounting Office, the independent research arm of Congress, suggested the move in a report last year. Since being dismissed as one of Mr. Martin's investigators in 1999 and again in 2001, Mr. Kaufman has served as a program analyst at EPA.

quote: Mr. Kaufman was a leading investigator into the New York Love Canal disaster of 1979. He also played a key role in developing the Superfund program, which manages hazardous waste sites.

And in case you think its just the Republicans who think he's wacko, there's THIS

quote: Kaufman was removed from his position by Tim Fields on December 14, the day after Gore finally conceded the presidential race. Fields is a Clinton appointee who heads the EPA's Superfund division, a frequent target of criticism by Kaufman and environmentalists. Fields maintains that Kaufman is biased and abrasive and he called Kaufman's charge that he had been transferred as a retaliatory measure "another of his shams he's trying to pull."

The details of the Marshville, NC derailment and cleanup can be found in a report by the National Transportation Safety Board

Title: Seaboard System Railroad Freight Train Derailment and Fire Marshville, North Carolina, April 10, 1984.
NTSB Report Number: RAR-85-05, adopted on 4/30/1985
NTIS Report Number: PB85-916305

which unfortunately is not on line.

That good enough for you?

PS:
Great job of journalism by the Washington Post, publishing an inflamatory quote by "Hugh B. Kaufman, a senior policy analyst at the Environmental Protecion Agency" without any indication of the guy's colorful history.

edit: typos

	02-09-2005 01:12									#18
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Our top newssite says New Orleans might be totally abandoned.

	02-09-2005 01:14									#19
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AS: okay... just wanted a little proof is all... thanks

	02-09-2005 01:16									#20
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If you ignore the loss of life, capital, and historical landmarks, the whole "abandoning an entire megapolis because of a natural disaster" sounds just way cool and sci-fi-ish.

	02-09-2005 01:17									#21
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ECthy, right, here they say they are thinking of maybe rebuilding it all. But that there's lots of places gone. Hasn't sunk in for me yet. Something a mind has difficulties to grasp what it truly means, it's that big.

	02-09-2005 01:19									#22
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It's a rather small place methinks. The world can live without New Orleans.

	02-09-2005 01:20									#23
	Re: Re: The Economic Consequences of Katrina Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker Wouldn't this increase the prices of houses further by restricting supply?

I think che means that a lot of construction material, labour, etc will be put to use in the Louisiana/Mississippi area for rebuilding purposes. Therefore prices will rise for such materials and labour and so demand for building new houses everywhere (as opposed to rebuilding houses in affected areas) will fall.

I don't know if that is true or not but merely how I interpreted what he said.

	02-09-2005 01:21									#24
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What close-past historical artifacts were kept at the D-day museum?

	02-09-2005 01:25									#25
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To me, New Orleans' greatest treasure was non-physical values like food and music, that will live on and be remembered even without the town. You can cook Yambalaya and play blues and jazz anywhere.

	02-09-2005 01:27									#26
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It was DEFINITELY one of the places to go in my list.. the food and music and atmosphere. What it's famous for.

	02-09-2005 01:28									#27
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Never wanted to go there, too cajun. Good thing it's gone now.

Atlantis 2005

	02-09-2005 01:29									#28
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If they'll actually evacuate it, and leave it there, this will be way surreal.

	02-09-2005 01:41									#29
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A rotten ghost town.

	02-09-2005 01:42									#30
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a rotten ghost ****ing metropolis!