01-09-2000 09:00									#61
	Inflate your Upload Space

interesting discussion you brought up here, fellows! go on!

	01-09-2000 09:35									#62
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Guildmaster:

I don't think there is a level which is the reasonable amount of a good that people will buy. If people earn more money they will buy more of that good. This means that there is no amount where the demand is satisfied, since the demand is only a function of wealth.

Therefor I don't think it is possible to go anywhere from the bottom of the demand and up. This means that the demand will never be satisfied, as if people get one amount they will just demand more.

The demand groups:
Yeah, they look really good now. I would replace the name "labour" with the name "services", as labour is also being used in production, but consumers don't demand labour. They do, however, demand services. But otherwise is looks really good!

Replacing one good with another:
Yeah, this is excactly what I think! The demand groups will not really be restricted to goods or to services. Maybe the demand for transportation could somewhat be satisfied by workers carrying people around! All I am saying is, that any good/service in a demand group should be able to replace any other good/service in that group.

I agree about one good not being able to cover all of a demand group. But again I must object to your ways of accomplishing this. For once, there will be no such thing as oversupplying the demand. After all, it's not you who supplies the people, it is the private sector (well, not if you use communism, but anyway). And second, it is not like people simply REQUIRE any type of good. If there would be no cars in Europe, it's true, people would demand more pulic transportation. But this would simply make the price on public transportation go up, and eventually more public transportation would come. But if people can't get the public transportation they want, then what's the big deal? they'll walk! Sure, they will be a bit cranky (this would be portrayed in the gov model - when the wealth of a class drops they will become less happy with you. But we shouldn't worry too much about that right now), but so what? What will eventually happend would be, that there will be a demand for cars, which will cause either import of cars or the startup of car production in Europe. If your reasoning was completely true it would mean that people would spend A LOT more money on transport than they would otherwise, and that's not really realistic.

But there is some truth in what you are saying. Cause when determining the wealth of the people (calculated as the amount of goods they can buy) having only one good/service in a demand group would mean that the amount of it would "count for less" than otherwise, which would mean that the real wealth of people wouldn't be as high as it would, if there were more goods to satisfy the demand in a demand group.

Ciao!

------------------
"It is only when we have lost everything
that we are free to do anything."
- Fight Club

	01-09-2000 18:47									#63
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Whoa dudes! This thread is growing in size every minute. I will need some time to digest this before I can give comments. This discussion sounds good!

	01-09-2000 19:45									#64
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Ok so the demand groups for trade goods v3.0 is as follows...

Food
Housing
Communication
Transportation
Textiles & Manufactured Goods
Luxury Goods
Healthcare
Education
Skilled Services
Unskilled Services

Ok I can think that perhaps all trade goods might fit into one of these categories without creating an illogical arrangement...
And if not we can always adjust it later.
Slaves would probably count as Unskilled Services...
Engineers would be Skilled Services, but I'm not sure about importing/exporting them.
Q: Can you export a good from one category and the imported country imports it as another good? Or if something crosses over would it count as both?

eg. Say for example Vietnam has an extensive university system but Mexico does not. Mexico, however, has a serious demand increase for healthcare because of a recent outbreak of the Junta Virus. After importing medecines for a while, Mexico decides to send students over to Vietnam to study medecine there and bring it back home. So my question is what is Mexico importing?
Is Mexico importing healthcare in the form of trained Mexican doctors or is Mexico importing education in the form of the training itself? And is Vietnam exporting healthcare or is Vietnam exporting education?
I would think that education is the good being exchanged EXCEPT... this should supply the healthcare demand in Mexico, and if we consider education the good being imported where is the healthcare demand being met?
So shouldn't the students count as both then, both in import and export?

I can think of other goods as well, most of them where education is concerned... but still others. ie. aren't telephones manufactured goods that satisfy the communications demand?
Or are manufactured good only stuffs that don't fit elsewhere?

------------------
Peace and trust can win the day despite all your losing
-Led Zepplin

	02-09-2000 00:15									#65
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Guildmaster:

Yeah, that sounds reasonable. But maybe we should abandon the skilled and unskilled services as groups. Couldn't they in some way be fit into the other groups? I mean, slaves could propably replace/be replaced by vacuum cleaners or food processors, which would mean that they could be put in the manufactured goods group. The same with the other services - many could go into the luxury goods group.

But anyway, I don't think we would have engineers as services that consumers would buy. It's not like you go out and rent an engineer like you buy a car. Engineers (or, propably, the most educated workers) would in stead be demanded by the producers, when making the goods that people demand.

About services:
I think that services should be radically different from goods: There would be two kinds of services. The first would be unmoveable. This would be doctors, hairdressers and such. To make it possible for a supply of these they would have to be present in the province in which people demand them. If they are to be moved the people would have to be moved. But people aren't imported/exported like goods. In stead the movement of people would be determined by a migration model (which is still to be made). Alternatively you could force people to move, but this would upset them.

The second type would be services that would be moveable to anywhere in the world without any shipping costs. this would be programmers or website designers. A programmer can sit in Kamtjatka and program for a coorporation in Manila without any problems.

Generally I think that we must seperate goods from services, as they are very different.

But what about that demand system? I am looking forward to see something great!

------------------
"It is only when we have lost everything
that we are free to do anything."
- Fight Club

	04-09-2000 22:05									#66
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

I'm feeling quite embarrased, since the game's economy model seems to be something I can't quite understand; I don't have any idea how to make things better, or which one of you is more correct. So I just say, that I think I agree with Joker with most things, but can't tell excactly why. Also I think I will just keep reading and comment when I have something to say.

About demand groups, I think they are good now. But perhaps each group should have goods and services satisfying the demand? Communication would have some electronic devices, and couriers, mail carriers, pigeons and such... though I don't know how to do this. Perhaps manufactured goods and services should be removed and included some of them in each section?

To answer Korn's question, a demo would be good, but I would rather see that we make the demo of the final economy system to test it; unless, we might waste lots of time. So we would need to design the model to certain level first.

	04-09-2000 23:30									#67
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Say the system works like this

There are 100,000 people
20,000 are rich enough to afford 2 Grade D Cars
80,000 are rich enough to afford 1 Grade D Car
100,000 are rich enough to afford 2 Grade E Cars

Now suppose they do not all want to spend their money the same way.
of the 20,000 only 1/5 buy 2 Grade D Cars (Wealthy people can be frugal)
of the 20,000 there remains 16,000 people of whom 2/4 buy 1 Grade D Car and 1 Grade E Car
that leaves 8,000 people. Of those 1/4 buys 1 Grade D Car
leaving: 6,000 people, of whom 2/3 buy 2 Grade E Cars
of the remaining 2,000 all but 1/10 buy 1 Grade E Car and 1 Grade F Car.
which leaves 200 people who merely buy 1 Grade E Car.
---
The system works the same way in percentages for the 80,000 and the 100,000.

	04-09-2000 23:36									#68
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

i have been doing lots of research on the internet in the past few days about economics and i have found lots of interesting stuff (including one page full of formulas) i like the jokers but i am not yet comfortable enough with it to endorse it as the final sysytem to go with...it is realistic and has lots of depth but i think it's missing the elegence it needs to be our final solution...

amjayee

quote: To answer Korn's question, a demo would be good, but I would rather see that we make the demo of the final economy system to test it; unless, we might waste lots of time. So we would need to design the model to certain level first.

	05-09-2000 04:34									#69
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

ECONOMIES
----
There are three countries; country A, B, C
Country A is superrich; percapita income= 500 gold per year but cannot produces
only 10% of total goods because their wealth comes from vast gold mines and not hard labor.
This creates demand. They consume 60% of total goods..
Country B is the moderate country; percapita income= 100 gold per year.
They produce 70% of total goods and consume 30% of total goods. Their wealth comes from trade.
Country C is superpoor; percapita income= 20 gold per year.
They produce 20% of total goods and consume only 10% of total goods. Their wealth comes from
production.

In each country there are 5 classes, excepting country C

1.Rich (Earning 100% more than the average person) [Needs High Quality Goods]
2.Upper-Middle (Earning 50% more than the average person) [High/Medium Quality]
3.Average (Earning 500/100/50 gold per year) [Medium Quality]
4.Lower-Middle (Earning 50% less than the average person) [Medium/Low Quality]
5.Poor (Earning 100% less than the average person) [Low Quality]

The porportions in each country are as follows
A- 1.20% 2. 15% 3. 50% 4. 5% 5. 10% [More likely to want High Quality]
B- 1.10% 2. 5% 3. 55% 4. 10% 5. 20%[More likely to want Medium Quality]
C- 2.5% 2. 0% 3. 60% 4. 0% 5. 35% [More likely to want Low Quality]

Country A consumes goods from Itself (High Quality) Country B (Medium Quality) and C (Low Quality)
Country B consumes goods from Itself (Medium Quality) and C (Low Quality)
Country C consumes foods from Itself (Low Quality)
----
If country B only consumes resources from country B- say they embargoed C. Then there will
not be enough resources for country A making Country A's food/car/etc. prices skyrocket.

If country A embargoes B then not much will happen other than the Rich and Upper-Middle Classes
perhaps becoming a bit discontent

If country B embargoes A then A will likely collapse because its trade system mostly comes
from B. However what goods they have will cost too much and most of A will soon become poor.
Unless country C increases production which will cause country C to increase in wealth.

If country C embargoes A then not much will happen except Country A's poor will become poorer
having to buy medium priced goods. Country C will not suffer at all except for the top 5%

If country C embargoes B then not much will happen other than Country B's poor perhaps
scheming a revolt for they cannot afford anything and together the Lower-Middle and Poor
comprise 30% for B's pop. Country C will not suffer except the top 5%.
----

Backup Quote Lines:
-------------------------------
--Remember: A smile is but a frown turned upside down... (Smiling Faces Tell Lies, And That's the Truth!)
--Attack can come from above, behind, around. Or within... (ALIEN)
--A little known fact: There once was a Republic of Biafra in Africa... Which dissolved in 1970...
--A little known fish: There once was a fish called a bichir in Africa... And there still is...

QUOTE LINES FOR RENT

	05-09-2000 16:45									#70
	Remove this text

Maybe things would be a bit easier if we had a list of the things we wanted the economy model to do. Then we could see what features were required and what could be removed.

Some features that we want in the economy model:

- A private sector that works autonomously from the player.

- A public sector, which is what the player controls.

- The ability for the player to build things (this is a bit obvious, but in the "professional" economy models I have found on the web this was not the case)

- Different classes, all handled realistically, and a relationship between them. Each should have their own role in the production. These classes should also be linked to the political/government model.

- The ability to portray the wealth of the people, in different societies and tech levels. Each class should have it's own wealth level.

- Have everything done realistically, and have the classes work like they would in the real world - workers provide labour, the upper class provide capital etc.

- make it possible to portray all societies of mankind with the same economy model.

- Make it possible to have a recession, and let it spread. It should happen via the same economic mechanisms that would always work, which would make sure that it would work realistically. It should also happen because of a realistic cause - an oil crisis, a war etc.

- Have 50-60 goods, raw materials and services in the game. Everything made in the economy should either be one of these goods or unit equipment/city improvements. The people would demand some of these goods, others would be demanded by the production. More wealth means people will demand more goods.

- Have a supply/demand calculator for all goods in all provinces.

- Have trade between provinces done in a realistic way.

- Make it possible to make embargoes and blockades against your enemies.

- Make it possible for a civ to control the supply of certain goods, like oil or machines. The civ that controls enough goods can control the world.


Are there any other things that we want our economy model to do?

Maybe we could try to get some help with it from the outside? Of cause this would mean that we would not make this model by ourselves, but if we could just get some help on how to get started it would be great.

PS: Korn, yeah I have also searched the web for economy models. I think we might have found the same one - I found a page with lots of interesting things, with a way to handle goods and more. Unfortunately I don't understand what is written on it. Maybe it is in some kind of programming language. I don't know really.


PPS: Darkcloud, the thing that makes economy difficult is to find out why someone are rich and some poor. It all has to be integrated into one system with a lot of variables that rely on each other - if people get wealthier they demand more goods, which means there will be more demand for labour, which means that the wages will go up, which means that people will demand more goods etc etc.

------------------
"It is only when we have lost everything
that we are free to do anything."
- Fight Club

	05-09-2000 20:51									#71
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

I like the idea of this stating what we want the economy to do...

1) Not just enough goods, if a player controls just one good, perhaps one key good then that will propel that country to economic and inevidable ultimate prosperity. Eg. Not using the oil example, look at how the top two nations in the world in terms of wealth and industrial power... those that produce the most, sell the most, etc. United States and Japan. what do they have in common?
a) Both happen to be the two largest manufacturers of automobiles in the world. Since the dawn of the 20th century, the demand for "transportation" has been the key to success, and notice how when England's auto industry was flourishing, England was flourishing. But when England's auto industry began to fall, England fell into a recession. Similar situation in France. Look how the most powerful and prosperous industrial nation in Europe (Germany) has a dominance over automobiles as well. I am beginning to see French cars make a comeback in the global scene and similarly I am also seeing France become a major economic power again. This is not a coorelation, this is a cause-effect relationship. Cars are one simple trade good with an enormous demand that fuels an entire world of economies, and prosperity depends on it. Period.

The advent of the automobile is second string to the railroad industry in the 19th century (again, the transportation demand being met.)

You can see the impact just by looking at the world around you, in that the poorest countries in the world today have poor infastructure and have no auto industry or nothing to do with it. Look at what it fuels: you have jobs created in the manufacture of the cars, oil being produced, mechanics to fix them, salesmen to sell them, etc etc etc. Transportation is FUNDAMENTAL to success. This is not a new thing, either. the Ancient Roman empire had more than 50,000 miles of highways which is more than we have right now in the US and the romans didn't even have cars!

Right along with transportation is Communication. If the railroad industry was the key for prosperity in the 19th and the auto industry was the key in the 20th, to what industry will the torch be passed for the 21st? Electronics and telecomunications. Information exchange. Internet. Look how readily the world is being transformed by this revolution... soon you will see countries that have poor or no communications networks falling the wayside and the world leaders in this will become the new global powers.

Again I forgot what I meant to say when I began this rant...

Ok, so there wil become a point when a global power isn't just a kingdom that can feed it's people =Þ by producing enough food for them to eat. NEVER underestimate the power of communications trade good category and transportation. Becoming a world leader in either of these two categories (ie. by supplying a surplus enough for your own country and a few others, meeting a multinational demand) spells out economic prosperity end of discussion. It doesn't take long either, you're poor once the demand is met BOOM you're rich. Volkswagon was formed, a few years later the 3rd reich was ready for war.

We need to have a "timed demand lapse" meaning the longer a demand goes unsatisfied the more initial money is generated once a supply is found.


------------------
Peace and trust can win the day despite all your losing
-Led Zepplin

	06-09-2000 11:33									#72
	Remove this text

ok here is what i imagine when i imagine the economy model...

first i imagine that we have a wide array of goods almost all of these goods have to be processed in some way...the automobile industry certainly changed the world, but it didn't develop until after both the Steel and Oil industries had reached a certain level of of development

The Technology of development

ok when the game first begins you should have very primative technology, which limits your economic expansion in many ways

an ancient level coal mine would be very small and close to the surface...things like ventilation, elevators, explosives, even battery powered lights are centuries away...so extraction of minerals in the ancient era should be severly restricted...

I mean an ancient roman miner didn't even know what titanium was much less where to look for it and how to process it...

so at least in the ancient era there should only be a very few resources available to mine, and the amounts available for extraction should be very limited

copper
tin
gold
silver
?iron

this limits the number of good that can be made...i mean without advanced metals and alloys there isn't any chance for you to produce a stealth fighter...or a dodge stealth for that matter

over time new uses will develop for old resources...copper wires in home electrical systems and copper interconnects in computer chips

i don't think we have to worry about social classes in this game...i think that a bell curve could easily address the social classes...basically i think we should have three types of interactions

business and consumers (people)
business and government
business and business

like a cologne (cK one) producer will sell its good to the people
while an aircraft corporation (Boeing B-52) will sell it goods to the government
while a aluminium producer would sell its goods to a soft drink corporation (alcoa sells aluminium cans to coke)

also each business should be represented by a factory on the economic map...if there isn't sufficent demand for a certain item then the business that produces it should go bankrupt (disappear from the map)

trade routes should appear going from sellers to the most profitable buyers, producers can sell to a variety of locations and consumers can buy good for a multidue of sources...producers look for the highest buying price and consumers should look for the lowest selling price...this process should be dynamic and should get updated everyturn

the player should be able to tax trade routes with duties (goods going out of territory) and tariffs (goods coming into the territory)...the player should also be able to tax the producers with excise taxes or value added taxes (taxes put on at the origin) and sales taxes (taxes put on at the destination)

the player should also be able to ban production of certain items (guns, CFCs and drugs all come to mind)

hmmm that's all for tonight i need to get some sleep

more to come tommorrow

korn469

	06-09-2000 19:15									#73
	Support Apolyton

Hmm resources, wasn't I supposed to do something about that? Well I didn't forget and it's not like I don't have the time, I'm just lazy. Well I will get to it later I suppose...

Anyway I think that technology level is relevant no matter what kind of material you're working with. It is theoretically plausable albeit unlikely that a civ might learn how to mine bauxite ore and extract aluminum from it using wind power and do this without ever noticing how much easier it is to make copper. That is a stretch of course, as one needs to know how electricity works, etc.
Supposing each of the materials is considered a technology in-and-of itself, and that working with that material requires that same technology...

Iron technology means you have the following knowledge:
How to prospect Iron Ore
How to extract Iron from Ore
How to manipulate Iron into desired shapes
How to make Iron alloys (assuming you have all other needed metal techs)
Suggested uses for the metal*(maybe?)

So these become simple additions to the tech-tree which we are doing.

Iron
Copper
Tin
Gold
Silver
Aluminum
Titanium
Lead
Magnesium
Zinc
Tungsten
Chromium
Uranium

Let me go look some stuff up I will get back to you

------------------
Peace and trust can win the day despite all your losing
-Led Zepplin

	07-09-2000 15:13									#74
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

This thread is truly flourishing. I'm interested to see what this will lead to. Korn and Joker were talking about some page with economical info; I might check it out, if I understand it. Send the link here.

Korn: Making a graphical interface to that kind of program would take very much time, but yes, I could make a simple text-based simulation program, that first creates randomly (using some rules of course) the material for simulation; like civilizations, provinces, etc. Then it starts to create production and trade between them, storing the info into a file. From that info could be created Excel spreadsheets and graphs, so the data could be analyzed.

I would be happy to do that; I need some practice in algorithms anyway. I just need to know, what you would like the program to do and simulate, and what kind of model it would use. So, create some kind of model and test situation, and I will make it. At the same time, I would have an opportunity to show you what kind of design documentation programmers require.

Anyway, I think this would be quite easy. But I really suggest creating a little more complex model than your first suggestion; it should have most of the same elements as the final model, just a little simpler; this way, the tested model could be used as a basis for the final one. So, perhaps we should halt the fruitful economy discussion for a while, and start constructing the economy model from ground up, and test it, refine it, test again, stc., until we have the final model ready to insert to the game. This same system could be used also for other models, like population. At some point pop and economy models could be combined, and we could see what happens.

	14-09-2000 00:45									#75
	Put an end to popups!

Hmm. This thread has been inactive for an entire week now. Oh, well. Please discuss these suggestions, making programs like that might be a good way of making some progress in this project; they would serve as foundation for the final game programming, and help find out about the weaknesses in the design.

	15-09-2000 09:25									#76
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

It's not just this thread, but all of them. I presume that everyone else is like me: Busy with school at this time...

------------------
Peace and trust can win the day despite all your losing
-Led Zepplin

	14-09-2000 22:56									#77
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

yeah i've been busy with school, work, and my gf for the past few day, and i wasn't able to connect with apolyton over the weekend

korn469

p.s. i'll try to post a little after i get off from work tonight

	15-09-2000 11:12									#78
	Tired of ads?

Yes, I'm a little busy too, like also VetLegion. I don't intend to push people around. I'm doing as much as I can, everyone else can do the same. We are in no serious hurry, since we don't have deadlines...

	24-09-2000 19:11									#79
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Finally I am able to post here again.

I have been spending my time off Apolyton (as much as I could - like the rest of you I have been buissy) to create a really simple version of my economy model. It is almost done, so I will propably post it tomorrow. It should be ready to program, so if Amjayee (or somebody else, that is, if we have other programmers at the moment...?) could program it as a textbased program it would be great. It should teach a lot of things about how economy works, and it should hopefully make it easier for us to expand on it. By adding more and more features to the model, while testing it and program it all on the way, it should make it possible for us to create a great economy model.

------------------
"It is only when we have lost everything
that we are free to do anything."
- Fight Club

	25-09-2000 04:36									#80
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

i can't wait to see the model that you have came up with maybe it will kickstart discussion again

korn469

	25-09-2000 12:27									#81
	Inflate your Upload Space

Sounds great Joker, I can't wait to see your model. I'm trying to do the same with the population model. It would be really good to test and analyze the models without the graphics. That way we would make them a lot better. About programmers, VetLegion is a little busy right now, but he's with us. Dan is even more busy, but he said he can help us out if needed; otherwise, he doesn't have much time left for us. But that doesn't matter in this phase, when we are designing. With good design docs, it's easier to get programmers - usually those people don't care much about the design stuff, they just want to code.

	26-09-2000 02:08									#82
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

This is the first demo of the textbased economy model.. It should include only one province, and no map. It would simply include a set number of workers who could work in any sector, and a certain productivity.

I will try to describe how it should work. There should be enough information here to create the demo, but if there is something that I have not explained enough about just let me know. The demo should be in a province with 100,000 people in it. All of these people will work - so there will be no age groups for now. The population will also remain constant, unless we change it. This is because the economy model will not yet be linked with the population model. In this early demo all people would be self employed. They would own their own business and take home the profits. Later we can always include employees and employers. In this demo there will be 3 goods - food, housing and clothing. We should wait a bit untill we include graded goods, demand groups and other fancy features. For now let’s just see if we can make something work. Other features not included here are capital and raw materials. For now labour will be the only thing required to make each type of good.

I will make the basic population entity be 10,000 people. This will be called a PU (pop unit). A PU doesn’t really have any meaning in the game, it will just be a short way for me to make assumptions conserning the population. In the game 1 PU would eat 10 food per turn to be healthy. In this demo the amount of food required to remain healthy doesn’t really matter, as the amount of people will be constant no matter how little people eat. In the game as well as in the demo the basic price of 1 unit of a good is 10 credits. In this demo there will be 1000 credits flowing around in this virtual society. These will be divided evenly among the people, so each PU has 100 credits to spend (note: I think that since all the people in this demo belong to the same class, they should always share the money they have as a class, so they will always be equal even though the people working in one sector might take home more profit than ones working in another – all the money earned by each member of a class will simply be collected in a pool and split equally among the members of the class). Again all of these will be used for consumption, as no money investment is needed. All that is required to create goods in labour. In this demo 1 PU will create 100 labour. This labour is what creates the goods. I will assume that 5 labour will create 1 item of any of the three goods in the game. This will mean that 1 PU can create 20 items of any good. Note that productivity, amount of people or credits in the demo and all other variables should be easily changeable via a txt file or something - so we can change e.g. productivity or amount of money and see what happens.

The first turn everybody will be working in the food sector. But since this will create a huge surplus in food workers will start moving to the other sectors, untill an equilibrium is obtained. The main purpose (at least to me) of this economy model demo is to see where this equilibrium will be, how long it will take it to get there and how it is best made possible.

The primary challenge in this economy model is to make sure that workers move to the other sectors of the game. This happens via the demand function, which has shown to not only be one of the most important and basic aspects of the econ model, but also one of the most dificult to create.

I suggest using a basic predefined demand function for this demo. Via the price on the goods and the income of the people it is possible to determine what people will buy.

1 PU will use it’s income on certain goods. It will work in a way that I have described before. When the price for all goods is 10 credits per item people will buy first one thing, then another, then a third and so on. The list of goods bought could be the following:

Good 1-5 bought is food
Good 6 bought is housing
Good 7-8 is food
Good 9 is clothing
Good 10 is food
Good 11 is housing
Good 12 is food
Good 13 is clothing
Good 14 is food
Good 15-16 is housing
Good 17 is food
Good 18-19 is clothing
Good 20-22 is housing
Good 23 is food
Good 24 is clothing
Good 25-28 is housing
Good 29 is food
Good 30-32 is clothing
Good 33-38 is housing
Good 39-40 is food
Good 40-43 is clothing
Good 44-50 is housing

This also means that the first 50 credits earned are spent on food, the next 10 on housing etc.

This should be enough. I have not really spent a lot of time thinking about this list. But it does make sure that when people are poor they will spent most of their money on food and when they become wealthier they will spent a lower percentage of their income on food.

Examble from the list: The price on 1 item of each good is 10. Some people have an income of 240 credits per PU. This means that they can buy 24 goods. Via the list we will know that they buy 12 food, 7 housing and 5 clothing.

The key element of the economy model demo is to figure out a way to handle the price setting.

I have to ways to handle the price setting. A simple one, that is easy to make, and a more advanced one that I am not yet sure how should work. The advanced one will have goods that have an elasticity other than 10%.

Simple version:
The amount of goods bought always equals the supply (the supply only changes between turns, so when looking at a single turn it is constant, no matter what the price is). People always spend the same amount of money on each good when their income is constant, no matter what the prices of the goods are. A high price will simply mean that people will buy less of the good.

The price per item of a good=(money spent on good)/(supply of good)

So if the supply of food is 300 and people spend 5000 credits on food the price per food unit will be: 5000/300=17

The price of a good will be used to determine whether workers will shift sector (from one with a low price to one with a high one). This version is this simple. The advantage of it is, that it is really easy to implement. The disadvantage is, that I think it will make certain economic crisises impossible to portray in the game.

Advanced version:
It starts out like the simple version. It will just include a way to make it so that a change in the price on a good will change the amount of money people will spend on it. So if the price on food rises people are likely to spend more money on food. The problem with this version is, that it means that when the price on certain goods is high people will spend more money on them and less on some other goods. But what other goods? It requires a somewhat advanced way to calculate what a change in price means to the amount of money spent on each good. I have a feeling that it is only because I have been thinking so much about this problem that I am unable to solve it. There may be a really simple solution to it that I just can’t see (there is an old Danish saying that goes something like this: ”I can’t see the forest for all the trees” – that is a bit like how I feel)

These are just suggestions, and in the demo we should propably have both (start with the simple one and include the advanced one when it is done).

The demand function for each good is being calculated, and a price on each good is determi-ned. The supply seen in amount will never change no matter what the price is. If the supply is 0 then the price of the good would be infinite. In stead of using infinity we should just be using some very high price which would be constant for each good (for food it might be 500 or something, for luxury goods it would be significantly lower). The price will be used not only to define the price at which goods are bought/sold, it will also be used to determine the amount of workers that change to work in another sector. The higher the price on a good, the more people will begin to work in that sector. I am not completely sure how to determine this.

But I have some ideas. Let’s look at the initial situation. There are 100,000 people in this society, and they’re all farmers. This means that they will create 200 food per turn. Each PU has an income of 100 credits, so their initial demand (when the price on each good is 10) is 8 food, 1 housing and 1 clothing. This will mean that the total initial demand for food is 80. The supply is 200 items. The demand for housing is 10, but since the supply is 0 the price of housing will be where the demand is 0 – again a really high number. The same thing for clothing. But since there is no other things to buy other than food all the money the people have will be spent on food. This means that with 200 food and 1000 credits the price will be 5 credits per food.

This means that the price for food is 5 and for housing and clothing it would be really high. Of cause this will mean that it is likely that people will move from producing food to producing these other items. But how many people will do that? It must be a number large enough to make the economy flexible, and yet small enough to make sure that there will still be people working in the food sector. And at the same time the equilibrium should not be obtained in just 1 turn.

Since I have not yet figured out excactly how to do this, and I am simply too tired to think about it now. But making this demo ready to be programmed should be an easy task, if we put some work into the two areas that I have problems with: The advanced demand version and the way to handle a change in the amount of workers working in each sector.

I should have some time tomorrow to sit down and think about this, but I hope that some of you will also post some comments or ideas to this model.

And, as always when I'm posting models, if there is anything you don't understand or find weird, please let me know, and ask me. I think I have it all figured out in my head, but when I write it down I end up doing it in odd internal monologues, which may make it impossible to actually understand what I have written.

But I really think this is the right way to go! In stead of developing complex models that we can not at all overview and really don’t know how functions we should start very simple and gradually balance the model out as we include more complexity and features to it.

Well, I'm going to bed, so goodnight!

------------------
"It is only when we have lost everything
that we are free to do anything."
- Fight Club

	27-09-2000 12:47									#84
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Good, Joker! I'm sure I can come up with something with that model. I will need to try start programming the basic things in the model to see how it goes, and what problems it might have. It is difficult to say how that would work. You said that you can't see the forest for the trees; actually, there is a saying that game designers can't see the trees for the forest, and the programmers can't see the forest for the leaves of the trees! Anyway, it is possible that the system is almost too simple to work properly; I just have to try to find that out.

I think Korn made good points. I will once again collect all things from this model in one place, distilling them to simple sentences, describing what I think the system should work like:

-people have minimum demand they need to survive. They will do anything to get that amount.

-people have a maximum demand; they will not buy anymore that product no matter how much they have money.

-housing: people try to have at least some kind of shelter. If they have money, but there's no supply of houses, they will build their own houses.

-When demand for example for houses rises, some people will start producing houses; that might depend on the initiative of the people or something, and how much smaller the demand is than the supply.

-combining the two former sentences: if there is not enough supply for houses, and people have money, some people will build their own houses; some people from those will find out it's fun and possibly profitable to build houses, and start building houses for other people as well.

-when supply for products is higher than the demand, the prices will go lower AND supply will go smaller, until surplus production is sufficiently small.

These were some things to consider. Tonight I will try to program the framework for the demo, and find out how to get the people buy and produce things. It will take some days before the actual supply/demand/prices things are needed. Until that, continue to discuss the model...

	27-09-2000 19:29									#85
	Full PM-box? Change here!

also keep in mind that everything has a production cost associated with it and that the goal of a business is to make a profit, also we need to make our model complex enough so that price is not the only factor which determines what goods people buy

i mean if there was only a dollar price difference between 2000 model BMW luxery car and a 1982 Yugo in the real world everyone would buy the BMW...however if there was a 30,000 dollar price difference then the choice would be more in favor of the Yugo

but if prices drop below what it cost to produce a product then a business has a very real chance of going bankrupt

also we must not forget capital and resources in our model but so far i think that it is a good start

korn469

	27-09-2000 22:05									#86
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Just wanted to throw a term out:

Joker, in his post above about consumption changing due to price, is called 'Price Elasticity of Demand'. Each type of good is thought to have one.

The more of a 'need' a good is, the less 'elastic' it's demand curve.

Sorry, just a random thought. Carry on, good work.

	28-09-2000 04:43									#87
	Inflate your Upload Space

Dear Joker,

I think you are moving in the right direction and that the model you presented might prove to be a good starting point. The fact that it is still relatively simple is in my opinion only an advantage. And I agree that food, clothing and housing are the most essential human needs. One could possibly add water and fuel.

Yet I think you should add some basic resources (grain, wood, mud(for bricks), stone, animals, perhaps metal) as soon as possible. The production of food is in a way different because it can actually be consumed in the form it has- besides some cooking. Production of clothing and housing is more complicated: first wood, bricks and/or stone should be produced and collected before the actual house can be built.

Another element soon to be taken into consideration is the durability of an article: in general food has to be consumed immediately, clothing will last about twenty years, while a house can stand straight for some 300 years. This will influence the behaviour of consumers. When you live in an agreeable house you will not buy a second one; only the rich and famous can afford such extravagance.

I agree with the remarks made by Korn but would again emphasize the exceptional importance of food (and water). When their existence is at risk people are willing to spend all their money and sell all property to obtain food and water. Their only alternative is death or migration. So during shortage of food prices will soar sharply because in this case demand is very inelastic.

An important point is when and how quickly people will change their profession. In general people are rather conservative so my guess is that only 2%(just an intelligent guess) of the population would choose another profession the next year to make more profit, unless they are forced into it. This conservative attitude will automatically cause economic problems. Many people will remain working in a once prosperous sector of the economy when they could earn much more by learning a new profession. Especially older people are no longer able to learn another way of life. They just die out.

When you add some difference in purchasing power and also luxury goods, which you have to produce first, the model might prove to be quite interesting. Production of luxuries should be highly profitable but dangerous for the economy as a whole, because it attracts workers that could sometimes better be employed elsewhere.

Finally a citation:

"Capital is made possible by saving. If resources are consumed they are obviously not available for capital cumulation. If you eat your cow today you cannot hope to have your milk tomorrow. Only by forgoing present consumption can a society cumulate capital. It is generally admitted that in any agricultural society, given the low per capita income, per capita saving is -in absolute terms- rather low. This circumstance is badly aggravated by the way saved resources are used. Temples, pyramids, mansions, jewellry, warfare, and so forth generally absorb a large quota of resources squeezed out of current income. Furthermore, pre-industrial societies are typically characterized by inadequate transport facilities. Mass transportation is generally non-existent and communications are costly and insecure. Consequently any pre-industrial society must keep inventories in much larger proportion to current production than any industrial society does. This is true for any type of commodity, but particularly so for basic necessities. Such inventories are a form of investment, i.e., of capital accumulation, but with a 'stabilizing' character. Generally investment of a 'developmental' character is very small in any agricultural society.

In all agricultural societies of our past we find that, mainly because of limitations of energy sources known and exploited, the great mass of people could hardly afford to satisfy anything but the more elementary needs, food, clothing, and housing, and even these at rather unsatisfactory levels. Correspondingly, most of the available resources are employed in agriculture, textile manufacture, and building.

Of these three sectors, agriculture is always by far the predominant one. It absorbs the greater quota of available capital and labour. Further, it somehow represents the pivotal point around which all other activities tend to revolve. Building makes a large use of timber. And textile manufacture uses materials -wool or linen, cotton or silk- that are also produced 'in the fields'."

(source: C.M.Cipolla:'The Economic History of World Population',1962)

Sincere regards and good luck!

S. Kroeze

	28-09-2000 10:48									#88
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

hmmm i was just thinking and i had an idea...maybe the relative amount of venture (free?) capital available in a nation could determine how quickly new businesses appear in that nation...of course this would be one of the later ideas to be implemented but a nation where funding is easy to obtain would encourge economic growth

think about which country do u think you'd be more likely to get funding to start a new business...the USA or Uganda (i'm not picking on Uganda i'm just making a point)

korn469

	28-09-2000 16:51									#89
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Korn:

I agree that the current, simple demand function is simply too inaccurate. But I don't think there should just be a maximum on the amount of goods people want to buy. In stead we will need a better function to describe demand.

I never thought I would say this, but I actually wish I had my old highschool mathbook now. It would help when finding the function we should use.

quote: supply is low prices go up then either supply will increase or demand will decrease...if supply cannot meet demand then prices will increase until supply and demand reach equilibrium

I would actually prefer, at least for now, that supply didn't change within one turn. In stead it should change between turns. This will mean that when finding the price and demand for a good the supply will be constant no matter what the price is. I know that this is not completely realistic, but if the supply is to change together with the demand we would require a whole new level of complexity in our functions. Cause when the supply changes then the demand for labour also changes. This changes the wages, which again changes the demand. This will mean that we would need differential calculations, something I would prefer to avoid.

Therefore, what I think should happen when the price is high is, that the demand will drop to match the supply. But before the next turn the high price would mean that a lot of people and capital would move over to this particular sector, which would increase supply the next turn. If this system is done right this should work good. This would just reverse when the price is low - the next turn supply would have decreased. This way the economy would always move towards an equilibrium.

quote: also keep in mind that everything has a production cost associated with it and that the goal of a business is to make a profit, also we need to make our model complex enough so that price is not the only factor which determines what goods people buy

Yeah, I'm working on that. But first I would like to have some supply and demand functions that works great, so we don't have to worry about it anymore.


Amjayee:

quote: You said that you can't see the forest for the trees; actually, there is a saying that game designers can't see the trees for the forest, and the programmers can't see the forest for the leaves of the trees!

I can imagine!

quote: -people have minimum demand they need to survive. They will do anything to get that amount. -people have a maximum demand; they will not buy anymore that product no matter how much they have money. -housing: people try to have at least some kind of shelter. If they have money, but there's no supply of houses, they will build their own houses. -When demand for example for houses rises, some people will start producing houses; that might depend on the initiative of the people or something, and how much smaller the demand is than the supply. -combining the two former sentences: if there is not enough supply for houses, and people have money, some people will build their own houses; some people from those will find out it's fun and possibly profitable to build houses, and start building houses for other people as well. -when supply for products is higher than the demand, the prices will go lower AND supply will go smaller, until surplus production is sufficiently small.

Hmm... I would actually prefer if we have an all mathematical model. I will try to think of actual functions to model supply and demand.

Besides this I'm just looking forward to that demo!

BTW: In the Civ3 Forum I made a thread about our name change to GGS about 3 weeks ago. But since I was locked out of Apolyton I couldn't really tell you all about it. Sir Shiva, a civer from India wants to know what kind of programmers we need. I have told him that we needed C++ programmers, but as a programmer yourself you could propably go into more details.


F Smith:

Yeah, I know. Is there any way to find the actual elasticities of different goods? Also, do you know what type of function would best describe demand?


S. Kroeze:

It is really great that you make these posts once in a while. They really help us out. Thanks!

For this basic model I would mostly just like to find a way to handle supply and demand. I have been thinking about how to implement raw materials and capital/investment (I actually think I have a pretty good investment idea), but I don't want to spend time implementing these things before the very basics of the model is set and working.

------------------
"It is only when we have lost everything
that we are free to do anything."
- Fight Club

	28-09-2000 23:20									#90
	Inflate your Upload Space

hmmm i've been thinking and this is what i have came up with

ok supply is a function of demand...supply will increase if there is a great demand and supply will decrease if there is little demand

S(d)

as prices go demand goes down

hmmm so tear this function apart

S(d)=d/((P)^2 + 1)

where d is demand p is price and s is supply...

we'd have to keep track of d...hmmm more thought is needed on this but i must go now

korn469