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Sahib
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on top of the world
May 1999 time: 06:14
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Well, if I was France, I would not trust you. Unless the F ENG was pre-arranged. Otherwise, looking at your moves, I´d view at as an EG.
Now what would I then do, as France?
Difficult. First I would believe you lie to me and try to find out wich moves would be ideal for EG. Answer:
F ENG - Bre
F NTH C A Yor - Nor
F Hol S A Ruh - Bel
A Ruh - Bel
A Kie - Den
Pretty obvious, isn´t it? (BTW, I´ve read your second post only after a close look at the map and analysis)
Next step I would think about what I could do against these moves. This depends on what I hear from Italy. If I believe Italy will call of his attack, seeing that it´s dead in its tracks, I´ll go:
A Bur - Mun
F MAO - Por
A Mar - Spa
This way I may lose Bre, but the fleet there can give no inland support, while I can build an A Par and A Mar. While germany gets just two builds instead of three and has to get me out of Mun, thus hampering his westward attack.
However, If I believe Italy goes for Mar (why should he, actually? All the gains would go to EG), I´d go:
Bur - Mun
Mar H
MAO - Bre.
Why that? I need armies in the north. As many as possible. The alternative would have been to go Mar-Spa and cover Mar from Bur, hoping to bounce. But that would shift my power southwards. Anyway, if Italy does attack, it´s much more serious for me. I get only one build (A Par), wich is not enough to hold Bur and MAO.
As France, If I really believed EG betrays me, I´d try to make sure you get the impression I am desperate and willing to EGF, just to survive. Only this way can I guess you leave Mun open. Only if I get Mun AND convince Italy to call off, have I a chance to live on.
______
Ratio:
Cover Mun, you get only two builds, but it´s worth it. Go:
F ENG - MAO or Bre
F NTH C A Yor - Nor
F Hol - Bel
A Ruh - Mun
A Kie - Den
You´re guaranteed two builds for both E and G. France is totally screwed. Bur is a sure win in 02, wich opens the door to Gas (together with F ENG-MAO or Bre, Gas is a sure win)
F ENG - Bre or - MAO depends on whether you judge F. If you think it´s more likely he DOES believe in EFG, go to Bre. If you rather expect him to disbelieve you, move to MAO.
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I say kill france and nuetralize the RAI by being nice to them 
Offer Italy french SCs offer Russia Swe etc. etc.
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