03-11-2000 01:02									#1
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In my game I face a very difficult decision as to what I (as germany), allied with E, should do against France in F01.

here is a map:
http://home.pacbell.net/emarksmi/2014.gif

and here are my thoughts on what France is likely to do:

First, let me make some assumptions on wich I will go on:

- F is an able player, he may have suffered, but he is not stupid.

- F knows about the importance of Gas

- F realizes that he needs a build. Desperately. With no builds he cannot defend.

- F is in close contact with R, T and probably I. He realizes that ERG is infact working, kind of. And that T is his best source of information.

Now, based on that assumptions, what can he, should he do?

1)
He could simply cover his assets:
MAO - Bre
Pic - Par
Spa - Mar

But this way he would risk that EG get Gas AND that he gets zero builds. Not a bright idea, IŽd say.

2)
He could assume EG want Gas and move
Spa-Gas
Ideally he hopes to bounce there, cause this will give him the Spa SC. But even if the move succeeds, his army then in Gas is in the right spot to backup the defense.

If he chooses that move, what should he do with the other two units?
I think he will go MAO - Por. Two reasons. He needs a build, better even two. And from Por he can cover his back in case E moves ENG-MAO.

That leaves Pic. He could attack Bel, but that seems very unlikely given our forces around. He could move to Par or Bre to cover. I think he will do that. And I think it will be Bre. two reasons:
If he really believes in ERG (wich I think he does), he might believe we give Nor to Russia and order englands units to Bel and Bre. he needs cover for Bre. Also, since my A Bur can only move two Par OR Gas OR Mar, he has a good chance I do not attack Par.

So my moves, if i was France, would be:

F MAO - Por
A Pic - Bre
A Spa - Gas

Any thoughts on that? Would any usual France think along those lines?

	03-11-2000 09:48									#2
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Before I even saw those moves, that's what I would have guessed. Anyway, now that you know what France will probably play, you have your counter all set up. I'd recommend
GA Bur->Par
EA Wal->Bel

By the way, what is this Russian alliance you speak of? If I was France I'd be ecstatic that Russia is coming to aid me. I would have petitioned strongly for a big Russian influence in Scandanavia and them attacking England, and would consider Russia my ally.

	03-11-2000 12:35									#3
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Russia is a lttle strange. First he had demanded Swe and Nor in a very rude fashion (for my taste). Then he came up with the ERG idea. He did not talk with France all that much, otherwise France would not have been so unsuspecting in S01.

Now Russia is frightened, but still believes he can take Rum (!). He nows asks, yes asks, for EG to give him Swe and Nor so that he can build up strong defenses in the south.

Of course E and me do not tell him our moves and plans. But my feeling is, even if we did tell him, he would not give it away to France.

BTW, I am still undecided about Swe. I think I will let Russia have Swe, if he gives Nor to ENgland. This way R gets a build and stays in the game (otherwise T could break through the stalemate line, long before I can be there). In F02 I could then stab R with Englands help.