11-07-2001 06:45									#1
	combat program Put an end to popups!

Here is a Java program which calculates overall % of winning, and amount of expected damage. It takes 4 arguments (attackers hp, att fp, def hp, def fp) and generates 2 concise tables across all attacker values 1..5, vet/non-vet and all defender values 1..3/with mods (0-4 +50%, 0-1 +100%, 0-2 +200%).
It uses the method outlined in http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...s=&threadid=988

To use the table you must be able to calculate your effective df and effective af.

Enjoy
-freshman

It can easily be converted into a C or VB program.
Rename file Combat.txt to Combat.java
To compile, javac Combat.java
To run try "java Combat 1 1 1 1"
Here is a sample when run with "java Combat 1 1 1 1"

_______at:08_at:12_at:16_at:24_at:32_at:36_at:40_a
t:48_at:60
df=008_0.290 0.869 0.979 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
df=012_0.027 0.356 0.798 0.984 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000
df=016_0.003 0.078 0.391 0.906 0.986 0.994 0.997 0.999 1.000
df=018_0.001 0.037 0.229 0.824 0.970 0.987 0.994 0.999 1.000
df=024_0.000 0.005 0.043 0.427 0.836 0.917 0.957 0.988 0.998
df=027_0.000 0.002 0.019 0.255 0.710 0.840 0.913 0.973 0.995
df=032_0.000 0.000 0.005 0.102 0.445 0.644 0.782 0.922 0.982
df=036_0.000 0.000 0.002 0.049 0.269 0.451 0.630 0.848 0.961
df=040_0.000 0.000 0.001 0.024 0.157 0.290 0.456 0.741 0.924
df=048_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.053 0.111 0.202 0.463 0.793
df=054_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.024 0.054 0.105 0.283 0.644
df=072_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.007 0.016 0.057 0.211
df=080_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.007 0.028 0.119
df=081_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.007 0.026 0.111
df=096_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.008 0.038
df=108_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.017
df=120_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.008
df=121_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.007
df=144_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002
df=162_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
-------Expected damage after win-------------
_______at:08_at:12_at:16_at:24_at:32_at:36_at:40_a
t:48_at:60
df=008_6.919 5.149 3.763 2.300 1.636 1.428 1.268 1.034 0.811
df=012_7.584 6.785 5.543 3.598 2.535 2.198 1.938 1.566 1.215
df=016_7.794 7.392 6.713 4.865 3.515 3.047 2.678 2.147 1.650
df=018_7.852 7.536 7.041 5.416 4.009 3.488 3.069 2.456 1.879
df=024_7.955 7.767 7.512 6.638 5.351 4.767 4.251 3.432 2.614
df=027_7.986 7.831 7.628 6.988 5.894 5.329 4.806 3.928 3.003
df=032_8.022 7.902 7.754 7.326 6.599 6.105 5.616 4.717 3.664
df=036_8.042 7.941 7.820 7.486 6.961 6.585 6.145 5.285 4.187
df=040_8.058 7.971 7.868 7.597 7.195 6.919 6.575 5.782 4.687
df=048_8.081 8.013 7.934 7.740 7.473 7.303 7.098 6.559 5.567
df=054_8.093 8.035 7.968 7.808 7.599 7.469 7.318 6.933 6.105
df=072_8.117 8.076 8.031 7.927 7.803 7.730 7.650 7.460 7.080
df=080_8.124 8.087 8.048 7.959 7.854 7.794 7.728 7.577 7.284
df=081_8.125 8.089 8.050 7.963 7.859 7.801 7.737 7.589 7.304
df=096_8.134 8.105 8.073 8.004 7.924 7.880 7.832 7.725 7.530
df=108_8.140 8.114 8.086 8.027 7.960 7.923 7.883 7.797 7.643
df=120_8.144 8.121 8.097 8.045 7.987 7.955 7.922 7.849 7.723
df=121_8.144 8.122 8.098 8.046 7.989 7.957 7.925 7.853 7.728
df=144_8.151 8.132 8.112 8.070 8.025 8.000 7.975 7.920 7.828
df=162_8.154 8.138 8.120 8.084 8.045 8.024 8.003 7.957 7.880


Here's the tables when "java Combat 1 1 2 1" is run (Units vs. Settlers for instance)
_______at:08_at:12_at:16_at:24_at:32_at:36_at:40_a
t:48_at:60
df=008_0.005 0.304 0.717 0.967 0.995 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000
df=012_0.000 0.010 0.195 0.759 0.946 0.974 0.987 0.996 0.999
df=016_0.000 0.000 0.014 0.389 0.779 0.875 0.930 0.977 0.995
df=018_0.000 0.000 0.003 0.228 0.650 0.786 0.871 0.954 0.989
df=024_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.246 0.420 0.579 0.798 0.937
df=027_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.115 0.252 0.408 0.673 0.883
df=032_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.021 0.077 0.177 0.435 0.743
df=036_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.022 0.071 0.264 0.598
df=040_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.022 0.139 0.445
df=048_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.024 0.189
df=054_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.077
df=072_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002
df=080_0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
-------Expected damage after win-------------
_______at:08_at:12_at:16_at:24_at:32_at:36_at:40_a
t:48_at:60
df=008_8.042 7.197 6.197 4.400 3.239 2.842 2.528 2.067 1.621
df=012_8.316 7.985 7.411 6.042 4.759 4.235 3.791 3.106 2.425
df=016_8.404 8.237 7.955 7.026 5.960 5.443 4.965 4.151 3.265
df=018_8.428 8.296 8.092 7.345 6.411 5.932 5.470 4.642 3.687
df=024_8.472 8.392 8.286 7.923 7.309 6.964 6.604 5.875 4.874
df=027_8.485 8.419 8.334 8.070 7.587 7.297 6.989 6.343 5.390
df=032_8.501 8.449 8.387 8.210 7.906 7.687 7.449 6.932 6.105
df=036_8.510 8.466 8.414 8.276 8.059 7.900 7.705 7.273 6.555
df=040_8.517 8.479 8.435 8.322 8.156 8.042 7.896 7.532 6.912
df=048_8.527 8.497 8.463 8.381 8.270 8.200 8.116 7.889 7.424
df=054_8.532 8.506 8.478 8.410 8.322 8.269 8.206 8.047 7.687
df=072_8.543 8.524 8.505 8.460 8.407 8.377 8.343 8.265 8.108
df=080_8.546 8.530 8.512 8.474 8.429 8.404 8.376 8.313 8.192

	11-07-2001 06:48									#2
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Didn't attach the program?
Here it is

Attachment: combat.txt
This has been downloaded 7 time(s).

	11-07-2001 10:03									#3
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Good work.Should be useful for scenario makers.

umm....I think kobayashi allready made one of these..but thank you anyways.

	13-07-2001 04:14									#4
	Concise table Support Apolyton

Hey - I just modified my program to spit out a REALLY useful table. Sure, its nice to know what probability of success you have with 1 guy. Its nice to know how much damage you'll do if you loose the one guy. Its nice to know how much damage you'll sustain even if you win.

But what is REALLY nice to know is how many units you'll need to win, (fractional units indicate how much the last one is damaged) and what is the standard deviation; this summarizes all the above info + more in just one concise table.

So if there is interest, I'll post my new program - otherwise not.

Here is the table generated for 1/1 vs 1/1 hit-point/firepower units:
_______attf:08_attf:12_attf:16_attf:24_attf:32_att
f:36_attf:40_attf:48_attf:60
df=008_1.3+0.5 0.6+0.3 0.4+0.2 0.2+0.2 0.2+0.1 0.1+0.1 0.1+0.1 0.1+0.1 0.1+0.1
df=012_2.4+0.9 1.2+0.5 0.7+0.3 0.4+0.2 0.3+0.2 0.2+0.2 0.2+0.2 0.2+0.1 0.1+0.1
df=016_3.6+1.3 1.9+0.7 1.1+0.5 0.5+0.3 0.4+0.2 0.3+0.2 0.3+0.2 0.2+0.2 0.2+0.1
df=018_4.1+1.5 2.3+0.9 1.4+0.6 0.7+0.3 0.4+0.2 0.4+0.2 0.3+0.2 0.2+0.2 0.2+0.1
df=024_5.8+2.0 3.4+1.2 2.2+0.8 1.1+0.5 0.6+0.3 0.5+0.3 0.5+0.3 0.4+0.2 0.3+0.2
df=027_6.7+2.3 3.9+1.4 2.6+1.0 1.3+0.6 0.8+0.4 0.6+0.3 0.5+0.3 0.4+0.2 0.3+0.2
df=032_8.1+2.7 4.8+1.7 3.3+1.2 1.8+0.7 1.1+0.5 0.8+0.4 0.7+0.3 0.5+0.3 0.4+0.2
df=036_------- 5.5+1.9 3.8+1.3 2.1+0.8 1.3+0.6 1.1+0.5 0.9+0.4 0.6+0.3 0.4+0.3
df=040_------- 6.3+2.1 4.3+1.5 2.5+0.9 1.6+0.6 1.3+0.5 1.0+0.5 0.7+0.4 0.5+0.3
df=048_------- 7.7+2.6 5.4+1.8 3.2+1.1 2.1+0.8 1.7+0.7 1.5+0.6 1.0+0.5 0.7+0.3
df=054_------- ------- 6.2+2.1 3.7+1.3 2.5+0.9 2.1+0.8 1.8+0.7 1.3+0.5 0.8+0.4
df=072_------- ------- ------- 5.3+1.8 3.6+1.3 3.1+1.1 2.7+1.0 2.1+0.8 1.4+0.6
df=080_------- ------- ------- 6.0+2.0 4.2+1.5 3.6+1.3 3.1+1.1 2.4+0.9 1.7+0.7
df=081_------- ------- ------- 6.0+2.1 4.2+1.5 3.6+1.3 3.2+1.1 2.4+0.9 1.7+0.7
df=096_------- ------- ------- 7.3+2.5 5.2+1.8 4.5+1.6 3.9+1.4 3.1+1.1 2.3+0.9
df=108_------- ------- ------- 8.4+2.8 6.0+2.0 5.2+1.8 4.5+1.6 3.6+1.3 2.7+1.0
df=120_------- ------- ------- ------- 6.7+2.3 5.8+2.0 5.1+1.8 4.1+1.4 3.1+1.1
df=121_------- ------- ------- ------- 6.8+2.3 5.9+2.0 5.2+1.8 4.1+1.5 3.1+1.1
df=144_------- ------- ------- ------- 8.3+2.8 7.2+2.4 6.4+2.2 5.1+1.8 3.9+1.4
df=162_------- ------- ------- ------- ------- 8.2+2.7 7.3+2.4 5.9+2.0 4.5+1.6

The first number indicates the AVERAGE number of attackers you'll need to win, the second number indicates the STANDARD DEVIATION (Error due to randomness) in the AVERAGE.
So, if you know your normal distribution tables, +/- 1 standard deviation happens 68% of the time, +- 2 standard deviations happens 95% of the time, +-3 standard deviations 99% of the time.

For example, an attacker non-vet-crusader (40) vs. a defending vet. phalanx on a river (36),
you'll need between .9-.4 to .9+.4 attackers 68% of the time (ie 34% of the time, 1 crusader will suffice and be damaged 50 to 90 %, and 34% of the other time, 1 crusader will die, the other will be damaged 0 to 30%)
If the attacker is a vet-crusader, though (60), he will 95% of the time lie in the 0 to 1.0 range of damage (so 1 will nearly always suffice: .4 +- 2*.3).