13-03-2002 14:38									#451
	Got spare money?

"You know lawyers are trained to do unbelievably tedious tasks."

VAT is incredibly tedious. But sometimes there's a way around it. It is also the subject of funny arguments from confused american politicians and economists.

"The distributor. It's totally bogus, IMO, so I just said that my lawyers wouldn't like it."

In that case, yes. The only purpose would be that "support" leaves no (esp customs) paper trail like a physical good.

	15-03-2002 21:26									#452
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Does anybody have a good link on the difference between index shares and i-shares? Thanks.

GP: The problem with putting all of your affairs on a strict business basis (or even grouping them with "investments" in your mind) is that you have to justify all of your activities as they relate to the bottom line, if you are disciplined. For instance, I am making peanuts on a per hour basis with my current venture. If I tried to rationalize this way of doing things, I would demand $x/hr or whatever in profit or value.

Not that perhaps I will get lucky one of these days and one of these will make some money, but if none of my personal ventures are stood up with viable business models, I will have still made out like a bandit in other ways. If the past is any indication, I will create a new business every 5 or 10 years, so I'm looking out for my own happiness foremost.

Does this make any sense?

	15-03-2002 23:27									#453
	Get a bigger avatar today!

http://www.ishares.com

iShares are a specific brand of ETFs (exchange traded funds). ETFs are similar to index based mutual funds. However, they trade like stocks and thus do not have distributions. This gives you more control of taxable events. Also, their fees are lower than that of most index mutual funds. The most famous of these is SPY. This follows the S&P 500. However, for broader coverage of the market, you really want something that covers mid cap and small cap stocks too. iShares has an ETF which matches the Russell 3000. Vanguard has and ETF which matches the Wilshire 5000.

	16-03-2002 06:09									#454
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Dan, I'm sure that you will get enjoyment as well as riches from your ventures.

	18-03-2002 23:17									#455
	Risk vs. Return Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

There are many things that go into the Risk vs. Return equation. Not all returns can be measured in monetary terms.

	18-03-2002 23:33									#456
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

should this thread be attempted on little sleep and food?

or should I give up on something interesting going on and leave for a few hours

Jon Miller

	18-03-2002 23:38									#457
	Get a bigger avatar today!

GP: Let's hope so. Thanks!

pchang: So true. So true.

Jon: you don't have to read the rest of the thread before picking it up.

	19-03-2002 01:16									#458
	Full PM-box? Change here!

--"There are many things that go into the Risk vs. Return equation. Not all returns can be measured in monetary terms."

Yeah, like sitting at the office at 10:30 PM trying to meet a deadline that you yourself promised to a client. Great fun

	23-03-2002 09:21									#459
	Full PM-box? Change here!

I know that I've asked this before, but what %-age of Europe's economy is devoted to ex-Europe exports? I've always thought of Japan of having an export driven economy, but I guess that must be less true nowadays.

Japan: 9.6% --> $460 billion / $4.8 trillion (goods only, Economist, 2000)
US: 10% --> $1 trillion / $10 trillion (goods & svcs., BEA, 2001)
Europe: 12%?

Interestingly, it appears that Canada/US is a more integrated unit than Europe. Canada's goods exports alone account for 40% of their economy. Mexico's is at about 29%, roughly in line with European integration.

Last edited by DanS on 23-03-2002 at 09:46

	23-03-2002 09:30									#460
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by Saras --"There are many things that go into the Risk vs. Return equation. Not all returns can be measured in monetary terms." Yeah, like sitting at the office at 10:30 PM trying to meet a deadline that you yourself promised to a client. Great fun

What types of services do you provide? What tasks do you personally do in a work day? Just curious.

FYI: I just read Barbarians at the Gate. Very interesting book on a corp takeover.

	23-03-2002 13:27									#461
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by DanS I know that I've asked this before, but what %-age of Europe's economy is devoted to ex-Europe exports?

Your guess of around 12% is probably right, when I last checked this (with 1997 data) it was 11.4%

quote: Originally posted by DanS I've always thought of Japan of having an export driven economy, but I guess that must be less true nowadays.

Nope, Japan's exports have never amounted to more than 13% of it's GDP (by never I mean since 1960 - maybe it was different in the 1520's )

quote: Originally posted by DanS Interestingly, it appears that Canada/US is a more integrated unit than Europe. Canada's goods exports alone account for 40% of their economy. Mexico's is at about 29%, roughly in line with European integration.

Not comparing like with like here - if you are going to look at a block like NAFTA and compare it with the EU then you would have to exclude intra-NAFTA trade (which amounts to 80%-85% of Canada's and Mexico's trade)
The export/GDP ratio's for Belgium and the Netherlands are over 80% and 60% respectively.

	23-03-2002 23:25									#462
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

OK, I was guessing on intra-European trade, based roughly on Germany's goods export figures of 29% of GDP, 57% of which is EU. The 12% was a guess that Germany exports more than some other countries in the EU like France, which only exports 22% of GDP.

Anyway, I've always wondered how all of these things showed up in the public psyche. For instance, in the late 80s, Americans feared that Japan was going to dominate the US economy. Or in the late 90s, Europeans somehow feared that the US was taking over the world economically. Further interesting is trying to figure out whether those fears are warranted.

My tentative conclusion is that exchange rate GDP per capita adjusted for how important exports are in the economiy is quite important in some ways, especially with regard to how others perceive you.

edit: Interestingly, and if I'm getting my nominals and reals straight, the US 1997 exports as %-age of GDP was about 11.25%, the high water mark. In 1960, the figure was more like 5%.

Last edited by DanS on 24-03-2002 at 00:38

	24-03-2002 00:54									#463
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

” Anyway, I've always wondered how all of these things showed up in the public psyche. For instance, in the late 80s, Americans feared that Japan was going to dominate the US economy. Or in the late 90s, Europeans somehow feared that the US was taking over the world economically. Further interesting is trying to figure out whether those fears are warranted.”

AFAIK such fears are usually grow out of large trade balance deficits or surpluses, coupled with economic hard-times and politicians and businessmen trying to find a scapegoat for their failures. Examples are US during the 80’s and Japan at the present. (with China being the scapegoat)

Of course this fails to take into account that while there may be a huge gap between exports and imports, this doesn’t mean either constitutes a large share of GDP. (at least not in the sense that countries Japan sells all it manufactures in the US, for instance)

	24-03-2002 01:31									#464
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

China is the scapegoat for Japan? Interesting. I must not be following the Japanese press too much.

I guess the trade gap could have had an impact on the US in the late 80s, but what of Europe in the late 90s? Europe had a trade surplus with the US, IIRC.

Here's the US numbers...

http://www.schmelzer.org/dschmelzer...%20of%20GDP.xls

	24-03-2002 01:34									#465
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

just for your information, guys -

the 'GNP' in the title got there because I had opened a thread about worldwide GNP rankings only short before this thread was opened. so this one was inspired by ME

I am thereby now an official memebr of the econogeeks of Apolyton

	24-03-2002 01:53									#466
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Dan,
”I guess the trade gap could have had an impact on the US in the late 80s, but what of Europe in the late 90s? Europe had a trade surplus with the US, IIRC.”

Maybe, but the US economy wasn’t in the doldrums (perceived or real) so there wasn't as much of a temptation to search for scapegoats stealing economic growth and jobs.

BTW you were talking about psychological impact right?

	24-03-2002 02:04									#467
	Support Apolyton

Yeh, I'm talking psychology, but we may have got our wires crossed. I was thinking about the US perception of Japan in the 80s, European perception of US in the 90s. You brought in the Japanese perception of China. Right?

	24-03-2002 15:45									#468
	Suffering from ads?

Mmm I’m not sure whether you can compare European sentiments towards the US with those of the US during the 80’s.

Anyway, I was previously trying to explain that trade balances seem to have a much bigger impact on public psyche than the size of imports and exports as a ratio of GDP, which is why I brought in the example of Japan and China.

	29-03-2002 23:29									#469
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

This is nuts. Kasriel is predicting real GDP growth of 4% in 02Q1 and the 01Q4 numbers were again revised upward.

http://www.northerntrust.com/librar.../us/020328.html

What the hell is going on here?

Colon: Again, a counter example to that is Europe's "fear" of the US during the late 90s, when it had a trade surplus with the US overall. That's why I dismissed the trade balance as a predominate factor, even though by all rights it should have an effect. My thesis is that somehow people forget their exports, while they see manifestations of increased imports all of the time.

	29-03-2002 23:55									#470
	Anectdotal business evidence Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Based upon what I have seen:

Q4 2001 was indeed a blockbuster quarter. It does not surprise me at all that the numbers are being revised upwards.

Q1 2002 will be a bad quarter. Economists like extrapolating based upon 1 or 2 points. Sometimes it works, most of the time it doesn't. This is one fo the times where it won't. The economist are in for a big surprise.

	30-03-2002 00:12									#471
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Dan, again, I'm not so sure as you seem to be that European sentiments towards US are comparable to American sentiments towards Japan. For one, few if any at all claimed that US was stealing European jobs and that American corporations were gobbling up European industry (if anything it was the other way around).

There has been anxiety about a widening gap, but I think that the tales of gloom and doom were more popular amongst EU officials and analysts than amongst the wider population. Don’t forget the past few years have been good for us too.

	30-03-2002 21:33									#472
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Regarding GDP growth in the first half of this year, it’s very well possible that this is just an inventory cycle which implies that the recession will “resume” in the second half. It isn’t unusual to have a very strong rebound of growth during a recession because depleted stock are refilled, but as the economy is still sick fundamentally, the rebound is short-lived.
It's also possible this is really the end of the recession, but even thenthis could very well be a temporary burst, followed by sluggish growth.

	31-03-2002 10:34									#473
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

BLABLAGDPBLABLAGDPBLABLAHEDONICBLABLA.

Since Derek is not here, I must spam the thread in this manner...

USA! USA! USA!

	02-04-2002 13:42									#474
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by DanS This is nuts. Kasriel is predicting real GDP growth of 4% in 02Q1 and the 01Q4 numbers were again revised upward.

Well 1 % or even 1.5 % q-to-q growth isn't that spectacular on an inventory reversal (and some very mild weather). The big question is final demand. So far we've had the bloated inventories thrown at a debt-crazy consumer. Now, maybe companies would like to make some profits again ? Biggest question is whether we've seen the terminal blowout of the housing bubble yet....

It's indeed fascinating. A year ago, I'd have put the US' chances of being the next japan at maybe 5 %. Now I'd say 20 %, given all the hard work of uncle Alan in that direction....

	04-04-2002 00:45									#475
	The next Japan Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

There is no next Japan. While we like to lump things together for easy categorization, there are always significant differences which make each case unique. Trying to draw broad parallels almost always leads to faulty analysis.

	04-04-2002 12:27									#476
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

"Japan" = "economy suffering from lasting bubble-popping-hangover"

Whether you call it liquidity trap or unliquidated malinvestment is a secondary issue.

	05-04-2002 20:18									#477
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Pchang, I agree that each bubble has unique aspects which requires different responses from the actors and I think those responses determine largely how heavy the hangover will be. However, I also believe that the broad lines are similar, easy credit, disproportional asset inflation, plunging savings rate, escalating debts and then the bursting of the bubble and the aftermath, seldom of much joy.

	05-04-2002 20:53									#478
	Tired of ads?

As I've pointed out before, a bubble affects different asset classes differently. I think we're talking about a residential real estate bubble, no?

If so, then we have good examples of how a bust plays out. California had a real estate bubble popped some time ago. It wasn't pretty, but I don't think it was catastrophic.

edit: I also note that there were decades of appreciation in California before the bust. There's quite a lot of time to work out this stuff.

	05-04-2002 21:06									#479
	Hmmm Full PM-box? Change here!

I think Roland is saying there is a bubble in every asset class in the US, even Apolyton posters.

As for RE, didn't someone once say "They aren't making land anymmore" in response to investing in property?

	05-04-2002 21:28									#480
	Put an end to popups!

Looked at another way, there has always been an oversupply in the land market. Just look at Canada!