06-10-2001 02:12									#1
	GNP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 10 Suffering from ads?

edit: - I didn't see rt's thread - must have been between pages - I suppose we should edit the name of that one and continue there. pending delete...



Per Ming's request to retire the old 500+ post thread and start a new chapter of inane drivel about all things remotely financial...

Link to part 9: tba

Some of today's closes for reference

INDU 9119
S&P 1071
Nasdaq 1605
DAX 4488
FTSE 5036
CAC40 4165
NKY 10206
FedFunds 2.5%
US 10yr 4.51%
ECB Target 3.75%
Euro 10yr 4.65%
Roland's cash position 100%



Carry on.

	06-10-2001 02:14									#2
	Get a bigger avatar today!

I sold everything to come up with the down payment for my condo. Thus, I too have a cash position of 100% (whatever is in my checking account).

SS - How goes your own search?

	06-10-2001 02:18									#3
	Suffering from ads?

I have my recycling from all of those Nortel beer cans - must be worth something...

Sorrry about the new thread - didn't see the other one.

	09-10-2001 22:53									#4
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

let's just use this one. It has a more apt title.

And on a personal note, I'd just like the record to show that I can rise above Sten Sture's "accidental" glory-hogging thread-jacking ego-trip.

	09-10-2001 22:57									#5
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Kudos to the derivative king. Those swedish bondtraders are real egomaniacs.

Hmm... what are the lose ends from the other threads ?

Oh, yes : BUBBLE!!!

	09-10-2001 23:45									#6
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I think we determined that SAP specifically is not a stock that the apolyton community feels bullish on.

looks like Abby Cohen finally lowered her S&P 1600 price target. Very quietly, of course. No announcement; just magically lower one day.

I love CNBC's Lame-O awards. Goldman, Solly and Merrill all got nailed a couple of days ago for lowering their rating on Global Crossing -- after it had dropped below $2 (from around $70?). Of course, it did keep going down -- last trade at $0.57

	10-10-2001 01:28									#7
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

I'm not sure it's relevant, but I went from 200 pounds to 184 pounds. That's a net loss of 16 pounds.

Of course it all depends on the scale you're using...

My income has remained the same through it all I'm proud to say. I have to admit it's not entirely all my own doing, as the government has maintained the minimum wage.

	10-10-2001 02:38									#8
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It would appear that Lancer's mass productivity has increased by 8%.

	10-10-2001 12:15									#9
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

rt:

"looks like Abby Cohen finally lowered her S&P 1600 price target."

Didn't she lower it some time ago to 1550 ?
I think it was the day of a Fed meeting. What a coincidence...
I've actually started to like her. She's so.... freaky.

"Goldman, Solly and Merrill all got nailed a couple of days ago for lowering their rating on Global Crossing"

I really think the term "analyst" refers to estimates pulled out of asses. There simply is no other explanation.

	10-10-2001 14:12									#10
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Dinosaur Sten,

Regarding your title, GNP is soooooo 1986...the kids are using GDP. Tell him, Herr Rechtsberater!

By the way, what's the difference between an Anwalt and a Rechtsberater? Rechtsberater only works in the courtroom?

	10-10-2001 14:33									#11
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

"Rechtsberater" is no official title, it just means "legal adviser". Where did you get the term ?

	10-10-2001 14:39									#12
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Just from memory.

Anwalt is what I got when I looked it up.

	10-10-2001 14:46									#13
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Jurist = person with law degree
Rechtsberater = legal adviser
Rechtspfleger = sort of a paralegal doing some court work
Anwalt or Rechtsanwalt = attorney; person with law degree who represents clients in legal matters on a professional basis (aka "whore")

	10-10-2001 14:56									#14
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: (aka "whore")

Danke Schoen Fraulien Hure!

	17-10-2001 15:44									#15
	Got spare money?

Bulls seem to be running wild this week. Chips seem to be doing well.

NASDAQ has put off delisting companies until January. Get your .coms while you can, Roland.

Greenspan to say something stupid again tomorrow.

	17-10-2001 15:46									#16
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

initiate part 11

	17-10-2001 16:06									#17
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

"Bulls seem to be running wild this week."

They always remind me of that austrian rock band: "The Hallucination Company"

Sept 11th helped them to get their "bottom"-rally early. Well, the real problem is the post-bubble world, and that reality will hit.

S&P now 36 times trailing earnings
19 times forward funny earnings

My market recommendation still the same:

FASTEN SEATBELTS!!!

	17-10-2001 16:42									#18
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I agree, it's been going up and down for the past few weeks. My money is still with bonds and money market.

So you are saying the bottom has been found Herr Anwalt?

However, an Intel rep had an interesting view on things. She said that Intel was making plans for the UPSIDE of the economy, she said they were trying to be ready for it first so as to capatilize on the situation.

I think the worst of the labor cuts are over, however we will still see a steady stream of them on a much smaller scale, for a couple of more months.

	17-10-2001 16:52									#19
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

"So you are saying the bottom has been found Herr Anwalt?"

I'm not an Anwalt, you bitch!

There is a kind of bottom forming wrt earnings; any further fall won't be that steep. Stock prices are another matter. They often discount a return to the merry bubble times which isn't going to happen.

"She said that Intel was making plans for the UPSIDE of the economy"

Avoid the stock like the plague, then. Seems to confirm what I assumed in the AMD thread.

"I think the worst of the labor cuts are over"

The US economy will either fall further into recession or stay sluggish for longer. Alan's rampjob and the fiscal package can only ignite strawfires. Many companies like INTC haven't seriously cut back on useless capacity yet. I'd also say that many of the announced cuts haven't been implemented yet. So the worst for jobs is yet to come.

	18-10-2001 04:02									#20
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"...the worst for jobs is yet to come." - Rolandmittler

I concur. 70,000 or so cuts today alone. Could be very wrong if holiday retail sales are strong, but I am doubtful. The attitudes of our clients are decidedly negative wrt their personal and corporate spending. (I have been doing Q3 client meetings for the past couple weeks)

V-shaped recovery talk has been all the rage of late. I am looking at more of a funnel shaped recovery. We will get some refinance related boost and the Keynesian spend-a-thon will help - but if we don't shutter capacity and deleverage it won't last long.


Derek - GNP - LoL! I did that again yesterday. Must be all of this Nationalism going around. Domestic doesn't sound patriotic.


I do appreciate rt coddling my fragile thread ego. I might have flipped my lid and joined a Berkeley commune or gone to law school.

	18-10-2001 05:00									#21
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Speaking of global crossing, you would expect that these bandwidth companies should be worth slightly more than worthless. Maybe this is a "last man standing" type of business...

LVLT is trading at .36 x book. GX at .14.

	18-10-2001 05:22									#22
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Well just to muddy the waters even furthur...

Here are my lates 5 year forecasts for the G3:


Growth for the USA, EU and Japan:

2001: 1.00% 1.75% -.75%
2002: 0.00% 1.25% -.75%
2003: 2.00% 2.00% 1.50%
2004: 3.50% 2.50% 2.50%
2005: 3.50% 2.50% 2.50%

averages for the 5 years to:

2000: 4.00% 2.50% 1.25%
2005: 2.00% 2.00% 1.00%


Unemployment rates for the USA, EU and Japan

2001: 4.75% 7.75% 5.00%
2002: 6.00% 8.50% 5.25%
2003: 6.75% 9.25% 5.25%
2004: 6.50% 9.50% 5.25%
2005: 6.25% 9.25% 5.00%

averages for the 5 years to:

2000: 4.50% 9.75% 4.00%
2005: 6.00% 8.75% 5.25%


all figures rounded to the nearest 0.25%

Last edited by el freako on 18-10-2001 at 05:28

	18-10-2001 10:51									#23
	Is that Nominal or Real? ;) Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

el - that sounds about right to me. Though Japan could still be zero, since they haven't figured out econ101 yet.


DanS - LVLT bonds are trading at 40% of face. Tells you what the bond guys think of the quality of their book value. Survivors are just going to buy these guys' capacity for a few pennies at their liquidation sale. More venture capital down the toilette. Makes me cry.

Sprint shut down their ION program today - yahoo: less money pissed away in the near future. Looks like there will be six tele survivors. T, VZ, WCOM, BLS, FON, & SBC... about who were in place five years ago.

	18-10-2001 11:44									#24
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

EF, how did you reach those forecasts?

	18-10-2001 11:45									#25
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quote: Level 3 Comm Inc Estimates Raised at Goldman Sachs By Lindsey Mackay Princeton, New Jersey, Oct. 15 (Bloomberg Data) -- Level 3 Communications Inc. (LVLT US) was maintained ``market perform'' by analyst Frank J. Governali at Goldman, Sachs & Co.

How come Frank's not behind bars yet?

	18-10-2001 11:47									#26
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Colon, Colon...

You'll never be chairman of AIMR unless you pass Goat Intestineology 101.

	18-10-2001 13:18									#27
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Sten:

"Rolandmittler"

Is that swedish ?

"V-shaped recovery talk has been all the rage of late. I am looking at more of a funnel shaped recovery."

Or a W.

"We will get some refinance related boost and the Keynesian spend-a-thon will help - but if we don't shutter capacity and deleverage it won't last long."

Yeah... also the combo of opening the spending floodgate, tax cuts and a crappy economy will produce a nice deficit again. I'm still not sure the bond market has really discounted that yet, being busy trading on headlines. Qu'est-ce que vous pensez, Monsieur Sten ?

"Domestic doesn't sound patriotic."

Try "homeland". "GHP". Sounds good.

	18-10-2001 13:26									#28
	Increase the size of your Attachments

EF:

My estimate for US 2001-2005 is 1.25-2 %, so you're at the top end of my range there. But I think you're a bit too pessimistic on Europe. Btw, what kind of goat... I mean, what labour productivity growth estimate are you using for the US ?

Saras:

"How come Frank's not behind bars yet?"

Hmm... he said "market perform". This means that the market will...

Colon:

A rare appearance. What's going on ? One could think you're busy...

	18-10-2001 15:23									#29
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Hey where's randomturn ?

His SAP just crashed 15 % on a warning.

And what will GP tell us about perfect markets ?

	18-10-2001 16:59									#30
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: And what will GP tell us about perfect markets ?

Markets are perfect... in the long term. In the long term we are also dead.