30-10-2001 17:15									#1
	Mach vs Swordsmen, ect... Full PM-box? Change here!

Mech. Inf attack fortified swordsmen: (12 vs 3)
Civ1 model:
-12/(12+3)=80%, so one in 5 timen mech. Inf will lose a battle,
Civ2 model:
-units have a tons of HP so Mech will ALWAYS win a battle.
-Civ3 model:
chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (3 hp both):
0.2*0.2*0.2*(0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8+0.8)=1.56% (not likely)
chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (4hp mech.inf 3hp swordsman):
0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*(0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8+0.8)=0.31% (almost impossibile)
chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (3hp mech.inf 4hp swordsman):
0.2*0.2*0.2*(0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8+0.8)=1.88% (still not likely)
chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (3hp mech.inf 5hp swordsman):
0.2*0.2*0.2*
*(0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8+0.8)=2.15% (ones in 50 times)

chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (2hp mech.inf conscript,
5hp swordsman):
0.2*0.2*
*(0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8+0.8)=10%

So it look like that only conscript Mech Inf (if exist) can be beaten by Veteran or Elite Swordsmen (once in 10 times)

Anyway lowering of hitpoints from civ2 is good thing (there I was always certain wich unit is going to win), but now elite units look VERY powerfull
regardles of obsolence.

Also it looks like taht CONSCRIPTS are very waek compared to other units.

	30-10-2001 17:27									#2
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Nice analysis, Player1

	30-10-2001 17:27									#3
	Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect... Put an end to popups!

quote: Originally posted by player1 Mech. Inf attack fortified swordsmen: (12 vs 3) ...

Nice job. I have no problem with this; you can give anyone military equipment, but if they don't know how to use it they are going to have a chance of failure against a superiorly trained unit with inferior weaponry. As long as Civ3 doesn't cheat on the math, I vote for some slight unpredictability.

	30-10-2001 17:45									#4
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Your calculation seems to be wrong. You need to list all the combinations.

For example:

[2 HP Mech Inf vs 5 HP Swordsman, with Mech Inf a 80% chance to hit and the Swordsman a 20% chance to hit, and ignoring any bonuses speed may confer on combat]:

1. Cases where the Mech Inf win:

MI MI MI MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 = 0.32768
S MI MI MI MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536
MI S MI MI MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536
MI MI S MI MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536
MI MI MI S MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536
MI MI MI MI S MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536

Total probability of 0.65536

2. Cases where the Swordsman win:

S S = 0.2 * 0.2 = 0.04

S MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 = 0.032
S MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.0256
S MI MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.02048
S MI MI MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

MI S S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 = 0.032
MI S MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.0256
MI S MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.02048
MI S MI MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

MI MI S S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.0256
MI MI S MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.02048
MI MI S MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

MI MI MI S S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.02048
MI MI MI S MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

MI MI MI MI S S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

Total probability = 0.34644

So actually the Mech Inf has a 35% chance of losing.

	30-10-2001 17:59									#5
	Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect... Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

ajmo momci s ETF-a, da vidimo ko je u pravu
player1, gde si u bgd-u?

	30-10-2001 18:19									#6
	Re: Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect... Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by LaRusso ajmo momci s ETF-a, da vidimo ko je u pravu player1, gde si u bgd-u?

U Beogradu, Visnjica (ides 32-kom od Vukovog spomenika pa do kraja)
I da, studiram ETF indeks 136/98.

	30-10-2001 18:35									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Your calculation seems to be wrong. You need to list all the combinations. Total probability = 0.34644 So actually the Mech Inf has a 35% chance of losing.

I think you are right, I made an error.
Still, maybe a Mech. Inf. Conscript doesn't exsisit.
So for 5hp S. vs 3hp M.I. chances are: 14,983% (approx. once in 6.7 times), I guess that this happened in the review.

	30-10-2001 18:51									#8
	Re: Re: Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect... Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by player1 U Beogradu, Visnjica (ides 32-kom od Vukovog spomenika pa do kraja) I da, studiram ETF indeks 136/98.

haha, vracar ovde, mada najcesce nisam u bgd-u
kako ces da nabavis igru? neces valjda kod pirata (posto neces moci da je patchujes). moja stize za koji dan iz proklete amerike

	30-10-2001 18:59									#9
	Re: Re: Re: Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect... Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by LaRusso haha, vracar ovde, mada najcesce nisam u bgd-u kako ces da nabavis igru? neces valjda kod pirata (posto neces moci da je patchujes). moja stize za koji dan iz proklete amerike

Eh, da sam ja te srece da kupim igru iz Americe! (mnogo skupo)

Moracu kod pirata, a za pecheve ne brini, na mrezi se mogu naci i hakovani pechevi (a i jos ne znamo kakvu zastitu civ3 ima).

	30-10-2001 19:01									#10
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For 5hp S. vs 4hp M.I. chances are: 5.8% (approx. once in 17 times), not a problem anymore.

	30-10-2001 19:06									#11
	Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect... Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by player1 Eh, da sam ja te srece da kupim igru iz Americe! (mnogo skupo) Moracu kod pirata, a za pecheve ne brini, na mrezi se mogu naci i hakovani pechevi (a i jos ne znamo kakvu zastitu civ3 ima).

wow, da sam samo znao za one igre pre....mada sam i civ2 kupio original...ako ijedna serija to zasluzuje, to je ova.

	30-10-2001 19:18									#12
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Hey guys how about an army of elite swordsmen (they pull their HP's together) vs a Mech Inf.?

It seems that army of three swordsmen can easily beat a Mech Inf.

2hp mech inf vs 15 hp swordsman elite army. If I am right the mech inf has around 14% chance to win which is one in 7.

Could anyone calculate

How real is that? You could have an army of elite swordsman roaming trough your teritorry for a long time.

	30-10-2001 19:22									#13
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quote: Originally posted by OneFootInTheGrave Hey guys how about an army of elite swordsmen (they pull their HP's together) vs a Mech Inf.? It seems that army of three swordsmen can easily beat a Mech Inf. 2hp mech inf vs 15 hp swordsman elite army. If I am right the mech inf has around 14% chance to win which is one in 7. Could anyone calculate How real is that? You could have an army of elite swordsman roaming trough your teritorry for a long time.

hehehehe, why not shouting 'jihaaad'

	30-10-2001 19:29									#14
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quote: Originally posted by player1 I think you are right, I made an error. Still, maybe a Mech. Inf. Conscript doesn't exsisit. So for 5hp S. vs 3hp M.I. chances are: 14,983% (approx. once in 6.7 times), I guess that this happened in the review.

A 15% chance is still too high. As you pointed out, the probability Civ1 was 20%.

	30-10-2001 19:43									#15
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Here's a thought - just boost the values of modern units further in the editor. Should take care of the problem.

Regards / Döbeln_2001

	30-10-2001 19:52									#16
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quote: Originally posted by OneFootInTheGrave Hey guys how about an army of elite swordsmen (they pull their HP's together) vs a Mech Inf.? It seems that army of three swordsmen can easily beat a Mech Inf. 2hp mech inf vs 15 hp swordsman elite army. If I am right the mech inf has around 14% chance to win which is one in 7. Could anyone calculate How real is that? You could have an army of elite swordsman roaming trough your teritorry for a long time.

You are right, armies of obsolete units are very powerfull. Maybe there should be some trigger which disbands obsolete armies (not units).
Something like this: When you go to Ind. Age, all armies with Ancient Units should be disbanded (Great Leaders don't like forever).
Mech. Inf. of 2hp has chance of 14%
Mech. Inf. of 3hp has chance of 35%

To LaRusso: Eh, da na ovim prostorima moze da se nadje original za 20 do 30 DM, i ja bi ga kupio (Civ je najbolji)

	30-10-2001 19:58									#17
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by Ray K A 15% chance is still too high. As you pointed out, the probability Civ1 was 20%.

In fact in Civ1 it would be a 25% (if unit is veteran)

Anyway chance for Veteran M.I. ATTACKING an Army of Elite Sw. is
54%.

	30-10-2001 20:04									#18
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hi, be careful everyone. simply going for realism gets u no fun points, atleast for me.

games like AOE, had to specifically make older units better to stop their obsolesence. its all nice that in reality mech infantry could waste a million swordsmen, but if u added up all the unrealistic things in this game, ur list would so long that u'd never get to play it.

and I assure you that keeping older units from becoming utterly obsolete IS a good gaemplay feature.

	30-10-2001 20:10									#19
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Dont forget 3hp Mech. Inf. gets 3hp Sw with 94% chance.

	30-10-2001 21:04									#20
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quote: Originally posted by OneFootInTheGrave How real is that? You could have an army of elite swordsman roaming trough your teritorry for a long time.

Precisely. That is why you need a hard rule that renders older units ineffictive against modern units.

	31-10-2001 01:34									#21
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I can already imagine an army of 3 elite swordsman going around your territorry, pillaging all around, cutting off roads and running away, wile you are advanced in tech but you have no general and you are waiting for half of the millenium that a bleeding general spawns and you are utterly pissed off with the feature.

I can bet there will be a tread about this soon. Ok it might be fun but I think it is a bit too random feature that could seriously affect the game. Once you have such an army in your area you have to switch to military production, and you cannot really destroy them without a great leader. Even 500 years later with a big advantage in tech they will still be a serious threat if you did not produce that great leader you needed. However by that time you are odds on to be far behind.

I guess the calculation is a bit wrong somewhere otherwise a lot will depend on the fact when do you get your great leader and army which seems to be an random occurence.

	31-10-2001 01:58									#22
	Full PM-box? Change here!

I've got a little Excel spreadsheet I'm posting that uses the COMBIN function to evaluate the binomial expansions for the combinations that Urban Ranger mentioned. You can edit the attacker/defender strength, defender bonus, and defender hps fields and see the chance for a single attacker winning at various skill levels. It does not do armies. Armies are somewhat more complicated than I want to derive the math for. Plus, I'm not clear on what would happen when an army is involved in combat while all of its member units have only 1 hp left. I saw something that indicated units are not lost out of an army without the whole army disappearing, which implies that a loss in this scenario loses the whole army, but that seems somewhat unfair. If you want to see the full explanation of my math, it's over on civfanatics.com's forums, at http://forums.civfanatics.com/showt...=&threadid=7104

Attachment: civ3combat.zip
This has been downloaded 9 time(s).

	31-10-2001 02:55									#23
	Armor and Mobility Remove this text

What about armor and mobility factors. I know that mobility effects combat, but I've only heard rumors about the armor feature. My copy of civ3 won't arrive until nov 1 so if someone could enlighten us....

	31-10-2001 03:12									#24
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The only effect I'm aware of is that if a unit with a movement of 2+ is fighting a unit with a movement of 1, the unit will disengage (ala SMAC) if he gets down to 1 hp. If the other unit involved also has a movement of 2+, this is not allowed. By disengaging, I'm assuming the wounded unit moves back a square, but to what square I'm not sure. I'm also not sure what happens if the mobile unit is defending a city (I wouldn't necessarily want him leaving).

This did apply to defenders in SMAC right? Haven't played SMAC in a while, so I'm having trouble remembering.

	31-10-2001 04:20									#25
	Remove this text

Older, apparently obsolescent units are not to be taken as literally to be sword- or spear-armed in modern times. They are simply less capable units than their modern equivalents due to getting third-hand upgrades. It is silly of you, the players, to think that real spearmen and swordsmen will be left to take on armor. The number of times that a technological disparity of that degree has led to actual conflict must be less than 10 in the 100,000 conflicts of the last 500 years. More importantly, humans are too smart to keep fighting that way if that poorly armed. They go guerilla on you, so that the damage to you is inflicted by traps, mines, and ambushes. I'm willing to believe that a set of poorly-armed Mujahadeen are perfectly capable of routing a conscript mech ifantry unit. That is an historical result of the Afghani conflict with Russia. The "swordsmen" and "spearmen" in the came are under-armed units, but should not be seen as close order drill units armed only for hand-to-hand combat in the rifle and missile ages.

	31-10-2001 05:32									#26
	Increase the size of your Attachments

You don't need leaders to get armies. You only need a city with Military Academy (moinor wonder) where you armies can be spawned.

	31-10-2001 06:19									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia You don't need leaders to get armies. You only need a city with Military Academy (moinor wonder) where you armies can be spawned.

But you need a leader to get a military academy. AfaIk.