13-11-2001 08:47									#31
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Well, they never did care much for the city.

	13-11-2001 08:56									#32
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So they leave the population for the enemy to feed, the cities and roads for the enemy to defend. Hell, they'll probably bury their weapons, melt back into the population and get fed, sheltered and clothed by the enemy themselves over the winter.

That's why they call it the "Afghan trap." The trap has now been set.

	13-11-2001 09:01									#33
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse So they leave the population for the enemy to feed, the cities and roads for the enemy to defend. Hell, they'll probably bury their weapons, melt back into the population and get fed, sheltered and clothed by the enemy themselves over the winter. That's why they call it the "Afghan trap." The trap has now been set.

AH, et al.:

Thinking along those lines, perhaps Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida terrorist network left a few "surprises" behind in the abandonded cities? Surprises like ... chemical ones? Biological timebombs? Maybe a radioactive weapon.

Returning to mainstream thinking, I highly doubt that's likely. It's too akin to poisoning your own well ... you only do that if you know you will never return and have no problem with scorched earth policies.

CYBERAmazon

	13-11-2001 09:05									#34
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Maybe, but they don't need to do that. You have no idea how much damage even a five or ten man team can do in say a road convoy ambush. They'll be hoping to pick off U.S. advisors and the like the old fashioned way

	13-11-2001 09:09									#35
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So far, the NA army has increased greatly in size due to defections, and has retook the northern half of the country. What's more interesting is how even Kabul, people greeted the Taliban retreat with chants of "Death to the Taliban". According to reports, altough a bit scared, they seem glad that the evil Taliban regime has left their city.

One point some idiots who compare this to Vietnam are misssing is the popular support issue. The commies in Vietnam had wide support. The Taliban is widely hated. They have suffered demoralizing defeats and massive defections.

	13-11-2001 09:11									#36
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi So far, the NA army has increased greatly in size due to defections, and has retook the northern half of the country. What's more interesting is how even Kabul, people greeted the Taliban retreat with chants of "Death to the Taliban". According to reports, altough a bit scared, they seem glad that the evil Taliban regime has left their city. One point some idiots who compare this to Vietnam are misssing is the popular support issue. The commies in Vietnam had wide support. The Taliban is widely hated. They have suffered demoralizing defeats and massive defections.

One of the main reasons I was so passionately against 'inevitable civilian casualties' They're oppressed by their government, not in support of it.

	13-11-2001 09:12									#37
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi The commies in Vietnam had wide support. The Taliban is widely hated. They have suffered demoralizing defeats and massive defections.

Really? The VC were popular? Pull the other one, you're talking out of your arse again.

	13-11-2001 09:16									#38
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Well, as far as you guys have said, the Northern alliance troops are theo nly ones moving in, not the US...soo...any surprises left behind will affect the NA. ALso, say we catch bin laden and move out. what is to stop the taliban from returning? in addition, what is the likelihood of catching every al quiada terrorist member. it's like the branch davidians: they will always be some left stirring the kettle to keep things going. And what if the people WANT the Taliban? what if they end up preferring the taliban to whatever the northern alliance does?

	13-11-2001 15:29									#39
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*Bump* for Cockney.

	13-11-2001 15:51									#40
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Well it is hardly surprising. The NA were bound to take it whilst they had the momentum, and not give the Taliban chance to get reinforcements to the city. Hopefully this will be a major nail in the coffin of the Taliban...

	13-11-2001 15:52									#41
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I heard the Northern Alliance nows controls 50-55% of Afghanistan at this time. The Taliban are screwed. This isn't Vietnam, because we are using B-52s. The North Vietnamese had one of the highest concentrations of SAM sites in the world during the war, the Taliban have ****. So no more arguments, we will probably see a new Afghanistan Government soon, probably a broad-based one consisting of the NA and Moderate elements of the Taliban. Those who were forced to serve in the taliban.

	13-11-2001 16:06									#42
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This was a planned and well coordinated withdrawal. The Taliban are retreating to their traditional strongholds around Kadahar and reducing their lines of supply and communication...

I think the main hope is to sow conflict and discord within the NA and coalition - they're hoping that the famous indiscipline of the NA forces and their tribal differences will again flare up now that they have retaken the capital.

The US and Pakistan expressly called on the NA not to enter Kabul, and yet here they are...

But then you wonder why the US didn't stop the bombing of Kabul if that were really the case! Incidentally, remember how the US wanted to shut up the Al-Jazeera TV network - well they bombed their offices, by accident of course...

They said they would enter if a power vacuum presented itself, so in the absence of any other peacekeeping force they almost had to intervene to stop the lawlessness and anarchy.

Still, most of the original warlords etc have now retaken their old land - will they be more interested in consolidating their original fiefdoms etc and descend into petty squabbling over territory etc like they did before, or will they stay focused and disciplined with their eyes on finishing off the Taliban.

Another concern will be what happens when NA forces reach the border with Pakistan - will that touch off a skirmish?

So we're not out of the woods by any stretch, but then there's not much the US can do about it because they don't have any troops on the ground...

	13-11-2001 16:15									#43
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quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS Incidentally, remember how the US wanted to shut up the Al-Jazeera TV network - well they bombed their offices, by accident of course...

Hopefully not - that would be extremely bad form, and a propaganda disaster greater than leaving them alone. In short, the most moronic thing to do short of dropping a nuke on kabul.

	13-11-2001 16:30									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Thue Hopefully not - that would be extremely bad form, and a propaganda disaster greater than leaving them alone. In short, the most moronic thing to do short of dropping a nuke on kabul.

Yeah well here it is... They avoided casualties, but at least they would have taken out most or all of their equipment...

quote: The Kabul office of Qatar-based al-Jazeera television took a direct hit from a US bomb overnight. The building was destroyed, but the staff had already left building. William Reeve says a US bomb landed earlier on a house about 100 metres from the BBC office where he was broadcasting. The blast smashed all the office windows

William Reeve should know as he was filing a report when the impact smashed into the wall of his office next to al-Jazeera. No wall - No William Reeve, 'nuff said!

The picture attached is a still from the camera recording the moment of impact that I saw - there was a sickening thud which buckled the wall of his office and sent him flying!

Of course this is all anti-US propaganda and it will be interesting to see how many of our American friends see these victims of 'friendly fire' broadcast on their national networks...

	13-11-2001 16:34									#45
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	13-11-2001 16:42									#46
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quote: Originally posted by Thue Hopefully not - that would be extremely bad form, and a propaganda disaster greater than leaving them alone. In short, the most moronic thing to do short of dropping a nuke on kabul.

They were crazy enough to bomb the Chinese embassy in Belgrade - any strategic gain from that was massively offset by the diplomatic damage (great coalition-building, guys ). Not to mention the shameful bombing of that TV station - they wanted to silence Serb propaganda, so they deliberately target some civilian workers and give Milosevic the greatest propaganda coup ever

So yes, they're quite insane enough to bomb Al-Jazeera...
(Which isn't even pro-Bin Laden especially, just a good example of free speech - you know, one of the things we're fighting for...)

	13-11-2001 20:22									#47
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This is a complicated political situation and I wonder whether it isn't just as well that the NA took Kabul. The NA is the weakest faction, so there is little chance that they would be able to keep it, if a renewed civil war were to take place post-Taliban. The US could even provide support for the Pashtun retaking the city.

The reason why it's so complicated is that you have intense internal squabbling among the people of Afghanistan but equally intense regional squabbling. For instance, Pakistan always supported the Taliban. Iran and Russia, the Northern Alliance.

Try to keep your eye on the regional power struggle. It's equally important.

AH: you're FOS. The Taliban is toast. If they had any vehicles that retreated along the Kabul to Kandahar road, they're ultimate "targets of opportunity." We've had experience with these kinds of targets and have been supremely successful...

	13-11-2001 21:18									#48
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The news media reports seems to indicate that the domino effect is not over yet, and the taliban is being driven before it. More area is going to fall soon it seems.

	13-11-2001 21:54									#49
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc I thought it didn't exist anymore.

That's in th' Future, DinoDoc, Don't think Magog(tm) destroyed Kansas yet.

	14-11-2001 00:01									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Lonestar That's in th' Future, DinoDoc, Don't think Magog(tm) destroyed Kansas yet.

Have you read any of the recent storylines? I would have sworn it got nuked quite recently.

	14-11-2001 00:07									#51
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You aren't talking about that "Worlds at War" P.O.S., are you?


At least Marvel has outgrown such juvenile crossovers....

	14-11-2001 00:11									#52
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quote: Originally posted by Lonestar You aren't talking about that "Worlds at War" P.O.S., are you?

Yes. I never bought it. I just thumbed through a few of the issues.

quote: At least Marvel has outgrown such juvenile crossovers....

Thank God!

	14-11-2001 02:17									#53
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quote: Originally posted by DanS AH: you're FOS. The Taliban is toast. If they had any vehicles that retreated along the Kabul to Kandahar road, they're ultimate "targets of opportunity." We've had experience with these kinds of targets and have been supremely successful...

"supremely successful", lol, even the language of the Vietnam bombing debriefs is coming back into vogue. Didn't Nixon say his incursions into Cambodia were something like that?

Well I really hope your right but unlike most of you I actually know what I'm talking about. I've worked in these kinds of war zones.

For mine, giving up the cities is the perfect move. A land mine here, an ambush there. They can run a very effective terror campaign from the hills, or even hiding within the civilian population of the towns. For example when I was in SEA, hand grenades were 50 cents each. You could pick one up at any local market. Lob one of those into a Kabul cafe with a few U.S. servicemen in it and you're on CNN and the front pages again.

The fact is, you really hope its true that the enemy is broken. That doesn't make it so.

But, as I say, I hope I'm wrong

	14-11-2001 02:23									#54
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Putin appears to be jelaous (from CNN):

quote: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that the Taliban are still a threat and warned against being "deluded" by Northern Alliance gains. The Taliban's retreat from Kabul was a cunning, strategic move designed to preserve their manpower and equipment, said Putin, who is visiting the United States for a summit with President Bush.

AH: it seems clear that the population has turned against the taliban, so I don't think guerilla warfare would work well. Besides, the plan is for a peace force to be from other muslim countries, not Americans.
It seems you will get a nice new avatar from mtg . Too bad they are disabled for now .
But if MarkG will let me I will gladly help putting in a special case in the code to have your avatar enabled .

	14-11-2001 02:38									#55
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It doesn't really matter whether the local population loves them or hates, although it would be better if they had popular support. What matters is that they fear them and I'm sure they can enforce that.

They also have strong support from the border regions of Pakistan, the so-called tribal areas, which are not under the control of the Pakistan government. Peshawar is a major centre for small arms manufacture for example.

So even if the whole country is notionally occuppied I don't think its over by a long stroke.

And I'm looking forward to giving MTG his new avatar

	14-11-2001 02:54									#56
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quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS No wall - No William Reeve, 'nuff said

According to the bbc he is fine...

Wonder if this latest series of developments will allow a partial bombing halt during Ramadan (should start on 17th) or at least during the final week. I would think that urban areas will be taken off the target list, only "front-line" or moble troops will be hit. That would allow a welcome concentration on base establishment, humanitarian aid, and peacekeeping forces for a month or so before winter really sets in.

	14-11-2001 02:56									#57
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Run, run little Taliban! Run!!


Hahahah!


Gotta go.

	14-11-2001 03:48									#58
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse Yeah right - just like you did in Vietnam. God some of you people are ignoramuses.

What aspect of Viet Nam?

	14-11-2001 04:12									#59
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Nice try GP

	14-11-2001 04:15									#60
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quote: Originally posted by Sten Sture According to the bbc he is fine...

Sorry, I meant if there hadn't been a wall he would have been toast! So who thinks the bombing of Al-Jazeera was on purpose - considering how much the US has been calling for them to be censored, on account of their reports of civilian casualties from US bombing... STORY

quote: Wonder if this latest series of developments will allow a partial bombing halt during Ramadan (should start on 17th) or at least during the final week.

You'd better believe it - there's no reason for them to continue the bombing against the Taliban whatsoever through Ramadan!

quote: I would think that urban areas will be taken off the target list, only "front-line" or moble troops will be hit. That would allow a welcome concentration on base establishment, humanitarian aid, and peacekeeping forces for a month or so before winter really sets in.

Many of those urban targets IMO should never have been targeted in the 1st place!

quote: If they had any vehicles that retreated along the Kabul to Kandahar road, they're ultimate "targets of opportunity." We've had experience with these kinds of targets and have been supremely successful...

I think Dan means the Highway to Hell/of Death when the US bombed the broken and routed Iraqi conscripts and civilians fleeing Kuwait city for hours on end, incinerating thousands...

I still think this is a strategic withdrawal on the part of the Taliban back to their heartland. I think they're hoping that the NA will start their internecine fighting again now that Kabul has been retaken...

I'm also interested in seeing just what kind of a pursuing army the NA will put together since up until now they've been fighting on 'home territory' - are they prepared to go on the offensive and 'invade' the south?

Even if the Taleban does melt away, that's still 50,000+ men ready to take up arms again if Mullah Omar survives, Al-Qaeda will retreat to the mountains and disperse overseas if it hasn't already and then you will might looking at a protracted guerilla war as the various factions of the country struggles to come to terms with running the country...

You're looking at a large number of peacekeeping troops being stationed in Afghanistan for a number of years to come, I think.

What I do think has to happen now if for coalition troops to be inserted into Kabul asap - they should have been on the ground already as a part of the ground offensive IMO. Now if they arrive after Kabul has fallen, it will look as though they're wresting control from the NA, instead of taking the place together, which might not sit well with many in the NA...

One does wonder if at any time our NA allies may not soon become our enemies...? On Newsnight tonight I saw the NA spokesman launch a vicious attack on Pakistan with the Pakistani ambassador to the UK sitting next to him - fortunately one of the two men was well versed in diplomacy!

We shall see!

The important thing is that humanitarian aid can really get flowing into parts of the country that need it most!