09-03-2002 22:00									#1
	What should the EU do about US power? Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

In terms of being able to project it's millitary power the US is way ahead of the EU nations - and as such is increasingly likely to act in ways we europeans find distateful.

In some ways the current situation where the EU expects a voice in US policymaking whilst being unable to provide any significant millitary support is the worst of both worlds.

We give (guarded) moral support to a lot of US missions without having any real say in them - as such we get little influence over US policy whilst suffering some of the same anger when other nations dislike US policies.
Whereas the US can see no benefit to having the European's 'on board' other than the moral justification of acting as part of an alliance as opposed to completely on it's own.


I think that there are two ways that Europe could go...

It could either spend more on developing a significant millitary force - in order to do this we would probably need to spend significantly more than the US does for at least 10 years to develop the 'power-projection' forces we lack - the US would then be able to spend less but would also need to accept the EU as an equal partner with equal say.

Or Europe could keep it's millitary spending at a minimum as any power that could threaten our interests would probably also be an even bigger threat to US interests as so would likely be dealt with by them - this would be very like the position of the US in the 19th century vis-a-vis the British Empire - of course this would mean that Europe could expect no influence over US policymaking.


Both of these options would make a certain amount of sense for both America and Europe - I myself find it hard to choose between them - and I was wondering what people here think.

	09-03-2002 22:08									#2
	Suffering from ads?

The EU and US need to develop a half-decent working relationship, and the first step towards this is for Europe to develop a coherent military force that can match America's. Without this, America can do what it likes and is frankly well within it's rights to tell Europe to shove it whenever we whinge about whatever they are doing. Europe is attempting to talk the talk when it can't walk the walk.

	09-03-2002 22:10									#3
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

I wouldn't mind a more equal relationship with the EU. Maybe then, they'll be able to take some of the flak we always get.

	09-03-2002 22:20									#4
	Get a bigger avatar today!

If the EU wants an equal say, it would need to build up a military deserving of it. But no matter how mulitlateralist we ever are, we will never give up our right to defend ourself, as we are doing now in Afghanistan. We will never have a veto on European foreign policy anymore then Europe will have a veto on American foreign policy.

	09-03-2002 22:35									#5
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

the EU military combined (remember, Britain has 2 half decent carriers, France has a few avergae ones) would be fairly powerful. plus they are mostly small and elitest (ie the SAS) so all of the merged could be quite a threat to the US in itself.

But they way i see it is the EU for some reason is happy to let the US play Mr Gun, because the European economy is growing with low lmilitary spending whilst the US economy is increassingly in deficit spending, and with an increased military bill, always on the up, the US is becomeing more dependent on EU money to finance it. so in say 30yrs, the US will have turned into what post war Britain was - thinks it is the super power but has become so dependent on someone elses money it need their permission to do what it wants.



And the is also the point that if Europe had a big enough military and said to the US 'withdraw all your military units from the mediterrainian and Euro mainland' the US is probably very likey to goto war to keep its influence in this part of the world.

	09-03-2002 22:37									#6
	Got spare money?

I think building up Europe´s military power is only possible when we get rid of the national armies for every single European country. Currently, every European country waste its money to have a rather weak army compared to the USA. Ok, every country has its strengths, but generally noone in Europe can have military power similar to the USA alone, this is simply not realistic.

But it would need a lot of time to create unified European forces.

	09-03-2002 22:39									#7
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Since there wasn´t an option that said "Beef up the military and conquer and enslave the entire US" I voted for banana production.

	09-03-2002 22:39									#8
	Full PM-box? Change here!

EU cant afford the kind of Budgets USA has. They have huge Social priorities to keep up on, where we dont. Its almost impossible for them to bring up the 400 billion a year we do...and thats of course, not even counting the black and approariation projects (+50-200 bil).

	09-03-2002 22:43									#9
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by The Andy-Man the But they way i see it is the EU for some reason is happy to let the US play Mr Gun, because the European economy is growing with low lmilitary spending whilst the US economy is increassingly in deficit spending,

Actually no, the long term forcasts still call for surplus.

quote: The Congressional Budget Office, which only weeks ago, was predicting that the federal budget would plunge back into deficit this year has now reversed itself. The CBO now says the economy is "currently rebounding in a remarkable fashion," which it says should lead to a surplus of $5 billion to $6 billion. That assumes, of course, that Congress does not embark on a heavy round of additional new spending. While the CBO also predicts deficits next year and the year after, it says there will be an overall net surplus of $681 billion over the next 10 years.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,47331,00.html

	09-03-2002 22:47									#10
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: because the European economy is growing with low lmilitary spending whilst the US economy is increassingly in deficit

Yes and no. Europe economic growth is in the ditches right now. But it goes up with the USA. First off, Your knowledge is lacking, Economy's dont run Deficits. Governments run deficits. There is no relation between the two.


second. European growth outside of germany is usaully lacking. Even in the best of times.

	09-03-2002 22:53									#11
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by BeBro I think building up Europe´s military power is only possible when we get rid of the national armies for every single European country. Currently, every European country waste its money to have a rather weak army compared to the USA. Ok, every country has its strengths, but generally noone in Europe can have military power similar to the USA alone, this is simply not realistic. But it would need a lot of time to create unified European forces.

The first attempt to create a pan-european army was done in... the 50's by France.

Unfortunately the deal crashed and burned when it was not voted in favor by the french parliement which considered it an unacceptable for that time surrender of national powers

After that development the concept of achieving political union before military was established.

	09-03-2002 22:54									#12
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

I think there are way to few options in your poll, since I don't agree with any of 'em...
I'll vote for: "I'm from the EU and I think the US should get its army down to EU standards."

	09-03-2002 23:22									#13
	Got spare money?

Why on Earth would the EU want an army as big as the US army???

The whole point of the EU criticising the US, is that we don't want them to go around killing people quite so much. Why would we counter that by doing the same thing?



The only way to try and deal with the US is to try and acheive economic dominance. This is something which Europe can and should do (although it policy makers would need a serious kick up the arse first....). The EU has a highly trained populace and good infrastructure, as well as good relations (on the whole - at least better than the US) with developing countries.

Nowadays econimic dominance = cultural dominance, so by Europe gaining economic dominance, maybe we could somehow trandfer our views onto the US populace and teach those Americans how to behave themselves.

	09-03-2002 23:25									#14
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 The first attempt to create a pan-european army was done in... the 50's by France. Unfortunately the deal crashed and burned when it was not voted in favor by the french parliement which considered it an unacceptable for that time surrender of national powers After that development the concept of achieving political union before military was established.

Currently, there exists a French-German corps (or something like that, I forgot the exact name ) - it could be a model for the future of Europe´s military...

	09-03-2002 23:25									#15
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by faded glory EU cant afford the kind of Budgets USA has. They have huge Social priorities to keep up on, where we dont. Its almost impossible for them to bring up the 400 billion a year we do...and thats of course, not even counting the black and approariation projects (+50-200 bil).

FD, that's rubbish.

To get defence spending up to the US's level would require a rise in the EU's tax burden (measured as taxation's share of GDP) of less than 6% - between 1989 and 1999 it went up by 5%.

quote: Originally posted by faded glory Economy's dont run Deficits. Governments run deficits. There is no relation between the two.

Wrong, an economy's deficit is called the 'current account deficit' - the US currently has a deficit equivalent to 4% of it's income, a significant chunk of it financed by European capital.

quote: Originally posted by faded glory European growth outside of germany is usaully lacking. Even in the best of times.

Whilst most EU member state do grow a bit slower than the US (in 1990 the EU's current 15 member's GDP, after adjusting for the economic cycle, was 98% of the US's, by 2000 that figure had dropped to 96%) you have to remember that it keeps adding countries (indeed for the member states as they were in 1990 that previously mentioned figure was 90% of the US's level) and is likely to do so for the next 15-20 years.

	09-03-2002 23:37									#16
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by Rogan Josh Why on Earth would the EU want an army as big as the US army???

I`m not sure if I want an army as big as the US army, but I want Eurpean forces who can act independently if necessary, without whining about the US on the one hand, and asking them for military support the other hand...I don´t say Europe should go to war in every corner of the world, in fact I hope we don´t need to do this, but I think we should have the ability to do so. For example currently, the Bundeswehr had not even enough air transport capacity to transport its own peacekeepers to Afghanistan, that is weak IMO.

quote: The whole point of the EU criticising the US, is that we don't want them to go around killing people quite so much. Why would we counter that by doing the same thing?

I generally do not criticise the US for doing that as long as I think it is justified what they do. Sometimes in the past it was not, but currently in Afghanistan I think it is. What would Europe do in a similar situation?

	09-03-2002 23:39									#17
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by BeBro Currently, there exists a French-German corps (or something like that, I forgot the exact name ) - it could be a model for the future of Europe´s military...

yes I know.. it could be although maybe it is too small to be used as a model for a unified army of some 450 millions of people!

(since the unification, if it happens, will not happen before the expansion).

it is useful to study how armies which has different languages can coordinate though. I think this is its biggest contribution.

but all in all we already have a working model for a european army.. it's called NATO

we just have to make it exclusively european

	09-03-2002 23:39									#18
	Increase Your PM Length

I'm from the US, and I think that if the EU should develop a projection force similar to America's. If and when that happens, they may have an equal say. Until then, if Americans spend the money to fight, t hen Americans shouldn't listen to anyone else who tells us how to fight our wars. Especially when said nations offer support so long as its nothing major.

Actually, where does the graying of Europe tie into all this? This is happening in America, but it's offset here by infusions of immigrants from Asia and Latin America. How rapid is the immigration into Europe? From what I"ve seen, according to the UN, at current rates of population growth/emigration, Europe's population will be smaller than America's by 2050.

	09-03-2002 23:43									#19
	Increase Your PM Length

well america and europe will not be exactly the same in 50 years.

you will be much more latin american in population maybe even spanish will be your second official language.

and we will be much more "arabic".


and yet maybe not. the problem with these studies is that they often ommit possibilities that can present themselves during the time - span encapuslated in the study so that they prove what they are seeking to prove

	09-03-2002 23:56									#20
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 you will be much more latin american in population maybe even spanish will be your second official language.

When did America adopt its first "official" language? I've never heard of it...

	09-03-2002 23:58									#21
	Get a bigger avatar today!

"It could either spend more on developing a significant millitary force - in order to do this we would probably need to spend significantly more than the US does for at least 10 years to develop the 'power-projection' forces we lack - the US would then be able to spend less but would also need to accept the EU as an equal partner with equal say."

This is what the US would like. Essentially, since WW2 we've been helping Europe on its track to achieving this. A European superpower.

"Or Europe could keep it's millitary spending at a minimum as any power that could threaten our interests would probably also be an even bigger threat to US interests as so would likely be dealt with by them - this would be very like the position of the US in the 19th century vis-a-vis the British Empire - of course this would mean that Europe could expect no influence over US policymaking."

This is what seems likely from our vantage point. The only public that appears willing to go with #1 is the UK.

Our response is to try to buck up the expenditure figures from #2 (by giving speaches saying that Europe isn't spending enough). But this moderation essentially means the status quo...

"In some ways the current situation where the EU expects a voice in US policymaking whilst being unable to provide any significant millitary support is the worst of both worlds."

Personally, it gets incredibly tiresome to hear about American "unilateralism" from the continent, especially when we have several huge coalitions successfully prepared for the tasks at hand. I sure hope that this isn't going to continue.

"To get defence spending up to the US's level would require a rise in the EU's tax burden (measured as taxation's share of GDP) of less than 6% - between 1989 and 1999 it went up by 5%."

While possible, where exactly is the political will to do this? Can you conceive a combination of Euro countries that would support it?

...

"The only way to try and deal with the US is to try and acheive economic dominance. This is something which Europe can and should do (although it policy makers would need a serious kick up the arse first....). The EU has a highly trained populace and good infrastructure, as well as good relations (on the whole - at least better than the US) with developing countries."

RJ: Economic parity is within reach and would support ef's #1. But economic dominance is highly unlikely, even with a serious kick up the arse.

Last edited by DanS on 10-03-2002 at 00:26

	09-03-2002 23:59									#22
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten When did America adopt its first "official" language? I've never heard of it...

well IIRC Iowa just planned on doing just that

pitty that greek was outvoted by the english by just a couple votes when deciding your US primary language in the birth of the US republic... (symbolic move but noteworthy nevertheless)

	10-03-2002 00:02									#23
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Faeelin How rapid is the immigration into Europe? From what I"ve seen, according to the UN, at current rates of population growth/emigration, Europe's population will be smaller than America's by 2050.

Europe recieves between 0.5m and 1.0m immigrants a year.

50 year forecasts should always be taken with a large pinch of salt (and I speak as someone who uses and makes them ).
For example in 1940 the US population was forecast to peak at 145m in 1950 and then fall.

	10-03-2002 00:05									#24
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: Originally posted by DanS This is what the US would like. Essentially, since WW2 we've been helping Europe on its track to achieving this. A European superpower.

This is not so clear. You are VERY ambivalent on this regard.
You want Europe to increase military spending that's for sure. OTOH you try to guarantee that Europe will not have a strong say as to how her own forces should be deployed.

You keep a very ambivalent stance to all of this. Sometimes "letting it happen" and other times doing your outmost to "keep it down".
Very undecisive.

	10-03-2002 00:15									#25
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

Seems odd. A powerful European military is in America's best interests. Firstly, it means that Europe can take some of the slack off America in the "world policeman" role. And secondly, it would mean that America doesn't have to bail Europe out when they do naff things up.

	10-03-2002 00:18									#26
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Originally posted by Paul Hanson Seems odd. A powerful European military is in America's best interests. Firstly, it means that Europe can take some of the slack off America in the "world policeman" role. And secondly, it would mean that America doesn't have to bail Europe out when they do naff things up.

It also means that the EU can say "No" and really mean it when their interests are different. (recent examples: plans to bomb Iraq, get tough on Iran, neverending support on Israel and the protection of Sharon from being tried in the Hague along Milosevic).

	10-03-2002 00:21									#27
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by DanS BeBro: Economic parity is within reach and would support ef's #1. But economic dominance is highly unlikely, even with a serious kick up the arse.

Was that me who said something about dominance?

	10-03-2002 00:24									#28
	Increase Your PM Length

Oops. Apologies.

	10-03-2002 00:33									#29
	Got spare money?

quote: I'm from the EU and I think the US should get its army down to EU standards

I vote for this one too. America's military is far too big.

	10-03-2002 00:42									#30
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by DanS "To get defence spending up to the US's level would require a rise in the EU's tax burden (measured as taxation's share of GDP) of less than 6% - between 1989 and 1999 it went up by 5%." While possible, where exactly is the political will to do this? Can you conceive a combination of Euro countries that would support it?

I was showing that Faded Glory's statement that the EU couldn't spend a simmilar amount as the US was false - as to political will it probably is not there now, but as the US's own history has show that can change.