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BillChin
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What difficulty are you playing at? That makes a huge difference. A cultural victory without any conquest is very tough on Monarch or above. Without any wonders, you are never going to catch up culturally, much less get enough for a win.
In your situation, I suggest building an army and taking on one of the neighbors. Mass 20 to 30 units for the offensive before going to war. Try to get allies in this war, especially after you take the first city. Hopefully you get a great leader and can get a decent wonder or Forbidden Palace. Saltpeter is critical for Calvary, but Knights and Longbows are effective until riflemen show up. You do need a lot of them against musketmen, but the AI military rarely has many top line units.
War is the tool to overcome a poor starting position. Use it. See who has good land and take it from them.
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Tarquelne
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1280? And, I take it, while you don't have gunpowder, you're not all that far behind in tech? Sure, you can still win.
Diplomatic victory can still give you a very good shot at a relatively easy victory IF you get the UN. (Without the UN it's still possible, of course, but more difficult.) Not being a world-bestriding conqueror can even be an advantage when going for the diplo. win.
Hopefully you'll can develop enough of a military to sieze some strategic Rs/luxuries for extra leverage when trading. In games where I'm behind capturing some especially strategic resources or luxuries is usually very important. I'd often have to be very oportunistic, though.
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Tarquelne
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MMPs: Oh yeah. When I'm small I do think it's a good idea to avoid MMPs. I do, though, try to make a point of saving up enough $$ so that I can buy some quick allies if someone declares war on me. When you're weak militarily I think this is less risky/more beneficial than a MMP. (Computer players might be too easy to bribe into attacking someone.) It depends on your exact situation though, of course.
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DrFell
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Playing on the highest levels, conquest is almost necessary. Which isn't a bad thing, as I find the game gets too boring without war after awhile.
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