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kimmygibler
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"This way no matter how damaged my tank is, it cannot be defeaed by a unit that can never even scratch it."
Not true. It could still happen. Don't you understand random numbers?
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Ethelred
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Most people don't understand random numbers or statistics.
Thats why they think there is something perverse going on when random weird things happen. May even be the main reason for religion. People are built to try to understand why things happen. Sometimes things are random though an no amount of trying to understand the reasons will change it.
In fact the universe is statistical to the core. However assuming something is random when it may not be is a sure way not figure out the cause. So human have evolved to see patterns even where there are none.
Then again when a spearman in the real world beats a bunch of Brits armed with Martini-Henry rifles with men armed with assegi it wasn't exactly a random event. Someone on the Brittish side blew it. In that case though the numbers were sufficient that the statistics reached high probabilities. In Civ we are dealing with only one unit vs another each time which allows for apparent anomalous results. Put a big stack of tanks against a equally big stack of spearman and the tanks will win every time.
No I haven't seen the legendary anti-tank speaman myself either. Though I thought I might last week though. My veteran tank got knocked to one hit but it was no ordinary spearman it was a hoplite in a city on a hill.
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Ethelred
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quote: You should read that Steven Hawking's book. |
If you are talking about A Brief History of Time I have it. Not only that I read it.
Try John Gribbons books for more depth without a huge quanitity of math. I did find his books a lot more work to read though. Twenty pages at a time. Then sleep on it. On the book sometimes or the couch or the chair. Occasionally on the bed. Where ever my mind decided it had enough and was going to shut down like XP does to protect the system with a BSOD.
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Ethelred
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quote: Originally posted by SpencerH
I believe that the physicists definition of "randomness" relative to the Universe and "random" from a statistical perspective are not the same thing. Its been a while, but I believe that Hawking was pointing out the existance (on some level) of forces that make the universe "non-random". |
Same for me regarding the time. I read it shortly after it came out. Gravity might have been what he was talking about. Its an organizing force. The universe would have needed to be VERY uniform for gravity not to have caused clumping. Very as in less than 1 part of non-uniformity in 10,000 which is about what COBE found.
Don't quote me. I didn't look that up so its likely wrong.
quote:
As I understand it, combat in CIV3 is not controlled by a random number anyway. It was pointed out in another thread (it might have been you Ethylred) that there is an assigned number for each turn that is used to generate the "random number" for combat. From a statistical perspective the randomness of the "random numbers" can only be assessed with a large population such as over the course of a game. But that doesnt change the observations that some very anomolous combats occur that are unlikely with completely random numbers. |
Not me. Well I wouldn't have said it wasn't random in that sense. I may have said something that was close to that. Here it is in more detail as I understand it.
The game stores a SEED number for each save to start with. The initial seed is generated by using something that is sorta random. I thinks its a timer that overflows very quickly from the time Windows, perhaps the machine, starts up. It was a hardware timer on the Apple ][ and that the last thing I programmed on.
Apple by the way had a busted random number routine courtesy of Bill Gates. Bill's first comercial Basic was Applesoft and there was a problem that caused the numbers to become in someway unrandom after around 10,000 numbers were generated in a row. I think they started repeating the same sequence no matter what the intial seed was after that. Simply getting a new starting SEED would work around the glitch.
There is no way to get random numbers like a roulette wheel or better yet a bit of radioactive material in a PC. An algorithim is run that generates numbers that are not predictable. The only way to find out what the next number will be from a given seed is to run the algorithim.
The Random Number Generator functions in PC's generate numbers that are pretty darn near indistiguishable from true random numbers. Each number that is generated after the start become the seed for the next.
There are two reasons people think Civ III is not using random numbers. One is that they just don't like the results of some battles and fixate on what they think is an anomalous result. This is normal human nature and it can be hard to avoid thinking that way. The other thing is when people try the Civ II reload cheat they get the same results they had the first time.
That same result is due to the SEED for the Random Number Generator. In Civ II and the original a new seed was obtained from the timer function each time you reloaded. Now in Civ III the SEED is stored with the Autosave. Apparently if you do a reboot you will get a new SEED.
Psuedo Code
Start Civ III
SET initial SEED variable with a number from timer function
DO
Run Random Number Routine using SEED variable
Save generated RN as SEED
Use RN for game function
LOOP
(the first language I learned was Fortran and DO LOOPs are still whats in my head)
IF save game then include SEED in save
Gamer hates result of RN
Gamer LOADS old save from start of turn
DO
Run Random Number Routine using SEED from the save.
THEN
Cheating Gamer rants the game is cheating
So the number is as random as it can be on a PC. But it is the same at the start of a turn even if you reload it because you are reloading the same SEED used the first time.
Simply changing the order of battle gets you a diffent number. So if you want to use the reload cheat you must change the order of events. Given the same seed the same sequence of numbers will be generated every time. After all it is running on a machine that is supposed to get the same results when it does the same thing. Only the SEED can be different and it won't be in Civ III from a reload.
I don't know if it was really a good idea or not for Firaxis to do this but just changing the order works around it. Of course if you only have one thing to do that requires RN to be generated you will have to add something that uses one. Make an attack with a unit that wasn't involved the first time for instance.
Keep in mind that loosing a unit may have involved many RN's and if you lost with each of them they must all be used up. Its not a stack of numbers that is saved just the intial seed but the sequence will not change. What you need is a very different place in the sequence especially if its a tank VS a spearman as that means the numbers were very bad indeed so not unit can be expected to win that particular battle. Also if the battle went on for a while with both units missing a lot trying to attach with a weak unit isn't going to clear out the unlucky sequence. More than unit may be needed to use the sequence.
This last may be why some people think there is more going on than a SEED save. They try using up the unwanted results with a unit that has one hit. That may use only only one number out of a sequence of many badly losing numbers.
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Ethelred
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quote: Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a random number using a modern day computer. |
I said that. Well I thought I did anyway. Its a psuedo random number. Close enough to the real thing for most uses. I would like to know what kind of ignoramous in the government tried useing it for random numbers in cryptogrophy.
We are not talking about the average person there. Cryptogrophy helped create the computer. The people that do it understand random numbers and they are one of the main groups that came up with methods of testing just how random a set of numbers was.
Psuedo random numbers have slightly different properties than the real thing and even if I knew what those were I am pretty sure I couldn't explain it. Number theory was an exceedingly arcane area of mathamatics untill people noticed it had use in cryptography and communications. The Russians didn't even stop it from being published for a long time. One of the guys I used to play D&D(not to be confused with AD&D) with was specializing in number theory because it went with all the programming he was learning.
Frankly I don't see the option for warriors when I have F-15s. Perhaps if you installed the 1.17f patch this apparition would go away. Some others will remain though. I don't notice them anymore.
Perhaps its because I use a modern mouse with a scroll wheel. Handy dandy things scroll wheels. I am going to wear out my middle finger with them.
I disagree with your second point. They barely scratch anything as it is most of the time. Even in Civ II they could harm modern units occasionally.
Besides obsedion axes are really sharp. Eye surgery is done with glass blades. Really. Glass is sharper than steel. It doesn't exactly hold an edge well though. Frankly I don't think a hand axe is going to do much to a tank unless you get the driver to meet your sister and then slit his throat.
Have you ever noticed that the combat system is intentionaly abstract. Haveing helped write D&D rules I know just how much useless detail can be added. I once ran an major battle that took hours to adjudicate. One of the players noticed but carefully neglected to mention that the odds of the Kobalds hitting them was actually one percent and that I could save a lot of die rolls by just using two ten sided dice and ignoring all the other stuff I was doing. I think he didn't want me to adjust the odds. Anyway I could have saved a lot of time if the system had been a bit more abstracted.
To make the D&D thing clear.
D&D is generic. AD&D is trademarked. In other words I did not work on any official rules. The original rule set was near useless and fans had to change things. My group changed things frequently and with a great deal of depth. Page after page.
I see by your third point you are unrepentent reloader. You must change your ways. Or hair will grow on your palms. Its growing in my ears allready.
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dubwai
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A tank can be destroyed by a single soldier. A soldier with a rocket, molotov cocktail, or a .50 caliber rifle can take out a tank. Of course, a stone ax and a .50 claiber rifle are very different things, but because there is no way for civs to buy or otherwise acquire weapons, this isn't easy to represent in the game.
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Grey Knight
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Fort Worth, TX
Mar 2002 time: 23:18
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I don't know if it got posted here (it was posted to www.civfanatics.com a few weeks ago), but some enterprising fellow hooked a debugger up to the Civilization3.exe, and extracted some large sets of random numbers.
The numbers *are* random (more on this later).
It's our misperception of the combat model which is at fault. Try this -- which of these battles does the attacker seem more likely to win:
A2 vs D1
A8 vs D4
It's like an optical illusion. We 8 is much bigger than 4, and we think "8" should take the day. 2, only being 1 more than 1, doesn't really have a big advantage, right? Wrong of course - the odds for both battles are exactly the same, since it is the *ratio* between the two numbers which matters, not the distance between the numbers. As one poster pointed out, even a 100/100 unit will loose on occasion.
If you want to see this in action, set the unit HPs to 9, 10, 11, and 12, in the editor and start a game. You'll see the unit with the numerical advantage (after defense bonuses) almost always win, and the "winner" will almost never come out unscathed (loosing their ratio of HP based on the A/D values). For example, an archer attacking a fortified spearman:
A:2 D:2, +35% for 2.7
Overall odds (from the calculator):
25% 75%
Likely HP left for the spearman: 4
Cheers,
Shawn
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Ethelred
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About the same size is not quite the same as if they actually were the same. There is a break point between town and city. One pop difference is enough to significantly change the defensive modifier. Population six is much easier to defeat than seven. Same for 12 vs 13.
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Venger
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Keeper of the Can-O'Whoopass
Jan 1970 time: 23:18
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Re: The fix for the warrior defeating the tank
The best fix is to go to File -> Run -> civ2.exe
Venger
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Ethelred
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quote: Originally posted by lorddread
The point I was trying to make was that instead of a random seed generator, why not use straight attack-defense ratings for combat and throw in initative as a multiplier. This was a tank (which can move 30 miles an hour and has 75mm if armor plating can vaporize an elite hoplite. |
And the hoplite steps to the side evading the tank. Or the tank is attacking a tank. Everything is fixed yet it mustn't be so or you too achieve unreality. Or the hoplite steps aside of the iron spike filled trap it was standing in front of for that matter. Even the warrior can manage that one.
Wanna hear about incendiary pigs? Or Samurai that committed suicide en masse. 200 of them. For real.
You can't have a combat system with fixed results for all possible opponents and be realistic. Probability is inherent in combat. Things ALWAYS go wrong or even better than expected. They nearly never go exactly as planned.
I am not saying a better combat system can't be devised. Just that one without probabalistic results won't be a better one.
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